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For infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by the H5N1 virus (A/H5N1 HP), early warning system is essential. Evaluating the sensitivity of surveillance is a necessary step in ensuring an efficient and sustainable system. Stochastic scenario tree modeling was used here to assess the sensitivity of the A/H5N1 HP surveillance system in backyard and free-grazing duck farms in Thailand. The whole surveillance system for disease detection was modeled with all components and the sensitivity of each component and of the overall system was estimated. Scenarios were tested according to selection of high-risk areas, inclusion of components and sampling procedure, were tested. Nationwide passive surveillance (SSC1) and risk-based clinical X-ray (SSC2) showed a similar sensitivity level, with a median sensitivity ratio of 0.96 (95% CI 0.40-15.00). They both provide higher sensitivity than the X-ray laboratory component (SSC3). With the current surveillance design, the sensitivity of detection of the overall surveillance system when the three components are implemented, was equal to 100% for a farm level prevalence of 0.05% and 82% (95% CI 71-89%) for a level of infection of 3 farms. Findings from this study illustrate the usefulness of scenario-tree modeling to document freedom from diseases in developing countries.  相似文献   
2.
Limited pharmacokinetic information to establish suitable therapeutic plans is available for green sea turtles. Therefore, the present study was conducted to evaluate the pharmacokinetic characteristics of marbofloxacin (MBF) in the green sea turtle, Chelonia mydas, following single intravenous (i.v.) or intramuscular (i.m.) administration at two dosages of 2 and 4 mg/kg body weight (b.w.). Blood samples were collected at assigned times up to 168 hr. MBF in plasma was extracted using liquid–liquid extraction and analyzed by a validated high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). MBF was quantifiable from 15 min to 96 hr after i.v. and i.m. administrations at two dose rates. A noncompartmental model was used to fit the plasma concentration of MBF versus time curve for each green sea turtle. The t1/2λz value, similar for both the dosages (22–28 hr), indicated that the overall rate of elimination of MBF in green sea turtles is relatively slow. The average i.m. F% ranged 88%–103%. MBF is a concentration-dependent drug and the AUC/MIC ratio is the best PK/PD predictor for its efficacy. The MBF dosage of 4 mg/kg appeared to produce an appropriate value of the PK-PD surrogate that predicts antibacterial success for disease caused by susceptible bacteria. In contrast, i.m. administration of MBF at a dosage of 2 mg/kg b.w. was not found to produce a suitable PK-PD surrogate index. However, further studies of multiple doses and plasma binding proteins are warranted to confirm an appropriate dosage regimen.  相似文献   
3.
Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the “second wave” of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.  相似文献   
4.
To the best of our knowledge, limited pharmacokinetic information to establish suitable therapeutic plans is available for Hawksbill turtles. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the pharmacokinetic features of tolfenamic acid (TA) in Hawksbill turtles, Eretmochelys imbricata, after single intravenous (i.v.) and intramuscular (i.m.) administration at dosage 4 mg/kg body weight (b.w.). The study (parallel design) used 10 Hawksbill turtles randomly divided into equal groups. Blood samples were collected at assigned times up to 144 hr. The concentrations of TA in plasma were quantified by a validated liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS/MS). The concentration of TA in the experimental turtles with respect to time was pharmacokinetically analyzed using a noncompartment model. The Cmax values of TA were 89.33 ± 6.99 µg/ml following i.m. administration. The elimination half-life values were 38.92 ± 6.31 hr and 41.09 ± 9.32 hr after i.v. and i.m. administration, respectively. The absolute i.m. bioavailability was 94.46%, and the average binding percentage of TA to plasma protein was 31.39%. TA demonstrated a long half-life and high bioavailability following i.m. administration. Therefore, the i.m. administration is recommended for use in clinical practice because it is both easier to perform and provides similar plasma concentrations to the i.v. administration. However, further studies are needed to determine the clinical efficacy of TA for treatment of inflammatory disease after single and multiple dosages.  相似文献   
5.
Green sea turtles are widely distributed in tropical and subtropical waters. Adult green sea turtles face many threats, primarily from humans, including injuries from boat propellers, being caught in fishing nets, pollution, poaching, and infectious diseases. To the best of our knowledge, limited pharmacokinetic information to establish suitable therapeutic plans is available for green sea turtles. Therefore, the present study aimed to describe the pharmacokinetic characteristics of ceftriaxone (CEF) in green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, following single intravenous and intramuscular administrations at two dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg body weight (b.w.). Blood samples were collected at assigned times up to 96 hr. The plasma concentrations of CEF were measured by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. The concentrations of CEF in the plasma were quantified up to 24 and 48 hr after i.v. and i.m. administrations at dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg b.w., respectively. The Cmax values of CEF were 15.43 ± 3.71 μg/ml and 43.48 ± 4.29 μg/ml at dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg, respectively. The AUClast values increased in a dose‐dependent fashion. The half‐life values were 2.89 ± 0.41 hr and 5.96 ± 0.26 hr at dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg b.w, respectively. The absolute i.m. bioavailability was 67% and 108%, and the binding percentage of CEF to plasma protein was ranged from 20% to 29% with an average of 24.6%. Based on the pharmacokinetic data, susceptibility break‐point and PK‐PD index (T > MIC, 0.2 μg/ml), i.m. administration of CEF at a dosage of 10 mg/kg b.w. might be appropriate for initiating treatment of susceptible bacterial infections in green sea turtles.  相似文献   
6.
The present study aimed to evaluate the pharmacokinetic features of tolfenamic acid (TA) in green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas. Green sea turtles were administered single either intravenous (i.v.) or intramuscular (i.m.) injection of TA, at a dose of 4 mg/kg body weight (b.w.). Blood samples were collected at preassigned times up to 168 hr. The plasma concentrations of TA were measured using a validated liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method. Tolfenamic acid plasma concentrations were quantifiable for up to 168 hr after i.v. and i.m. administration. The concentration of TA in the experimental green sea turtles with respect to time was pharmacokinetically analyzed using a noncompartment model. The Cmax values of TA were 55.01 ± 8.34 µg/ml following i.m. administration. The elimination half-life values were 32.76 ± 4.68 hr and 53.69 ± 3.38 hr after i.v. and i.m. administration, respectively. The absolute i.m. bioavailability was 72.02 ± 10.23%, and the average binding percentage of TA to plasma protein was 19.43 ± 6.75%. Based on the pharmacokinetic data, the i.m. administration of TA at a dosage of 4 mg/kg b.w. might be sufficient to produce a long-lasting anti-inflammatory effect (7 days) for green sea turtles. However, further studies are needed to determine the clinical efficacy of TA for treatment of inflammatory disease after single and multiple dosages.  相似文献   
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