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For infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by the H5N1 virus (A/H5N1 HP), early warning system is essential. Evaluating the sensitivity of surveillance is a necessary step in ensuring an efficient and sustainable system. Stochastic scenario tree modeling was used here to assess the sensitivity of the A/H5N1 HP surveillance system in backyard and free-grazing duck farms in Thailand. The whole surveillance system for disease detection was modeled with all components and the sensitivity of each component and of the overall system was estimated. Scenarios were tested according to selection of high-risk areas, inclusion of components and sampling procedure, were tested. Nationwide passive surveillance (SSC1) and risk-based clinical X-ray (SSC2) showed a similar sensitivity level, with a median sensitivity ratio of 0.96 (95% CI 0.40-15.00). They both provide higher sensitivity than the X-ray laboratory component (SSC3). With the current surveillance design, the sensitivity of detection of the overall surveillance system when the three components are implemented, was equal to 100% for a farm level prevalence of 0.05% and 82% (95% CI 71-89%) for a level of infection of 3 farms. Findings from this study illustrate the usefulness of scenario-tree modeling to document freedom from diseases in developing countries.  相似文献   
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BACKGROUND: The polyphagous cotton‐melon aphid Aphis gossypii Glover is structured into geographically widespread host races comprising a few clones specialised on Cucurbitaceae, cotton, eggplant or pepper. To assess insecticide resistance among and within host races, leaf disc bioassays were conducted on aphid clones collected from Cucurbitaceae (genotypes C4 and C9), cotton (genotypes Burk and Ivo), eggplant (genotype Auber) and pepper (genotype PsP4). Molecular diagnostic (PCR‐RFLP) and enzyme assays were also performed to detect the basic mechanisms underlying insecticide resistance. RESULTS: All six clones were susceptible to acetamiprid (neonicotinoid) or carbosulfan (carbamate). Conversely, all clones were resistant to dimethoate (organophosphate) (RF = 4.1–38.1) and carried mutation S431F in the acetylcholinesterase gene. Auber, PsP4 and Burk also carried mutation A302S in this gene, which possibly conferred moderate resistance (RF = 3.7–6.8) to profenofos and monocrotophos (organophosphates). Auber and Burk were highly resistant (RF = 41.2 and 473 respectively) to cypermethrin (pyrethroid). This resistance was likely associated with point mutation super‐kdr (M918L) in the voltage‐gated sodium channel gene (para gene) or metabolic detoxification mediated by esterase and oxidase enzymes. CONCLUSION: Multiple resistance to a broad range of insecticides and multiple mechanisms of resistance in some clones could explain to some extent the low genetic diversity observed within A. gossypii host races. Copyright © 2009 Society of Chemical Industry  相似文献   
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Breeding strategies based on feed efficiency are now implemented in most animal species using residual feed intake (RFI) criteria. Although relevant, the correlated responses of feeding behaviour traits resulting from such selection on RFI are poorly documented. We report the estimated feeding behaviour at three time levels (visit, meal and day) and genetic parameters between the feeding behaviour traits and their links with RFI and its components. Feed intake, feeding duration at three time levels (per visit, meal and day), feeding rate, number of visits and time‐between‐visits were estimated for 951 Romane lambs fed via automatic concentrate feeders. Heritability estimates of feeding behaviour traits ranged from 0.19 to 0.54 with higher estimates for the day level than the visit level. Daily feed intake was not genetically linked to feed intake at the visit level, whereas feeding duration between visit and day levels was moderately correlated (Rg = +0.41 ± 0.12). RFI was not significantly correlated with feeding rate, but was positively linked to feed intake and feeding duration at the day level (+0.73 ± 0.09 and +0.41 ± 0.13, respectively) and negatively at the visit level (?0.33 ± 0.14 and ?0.22 ± 0.17, respectively). Selecting animals with lower RFI values might modify their feeding behaviour by increasing feed intake and feeding duration at the visit level but decrease the number of visits per day (+0.51 ± 0.14).  相似文献   
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We performed a two-source capture-recapture analysis for estimating the true number of villages that experienced clinical cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in 2009 in Svay Rieng province, Cambodia, and assessing the completeness of the official case-reporting procedure. As a first source, we used the 2009 official dataset made up of the 15 FMD-infected villages that were reported to the provincial authorities, and enlarged this list by assuming that all the villages located at less than 4 km from one of these villages also experienced clinical cases in 2009. In addition, we created a retrospective detection protocol using participatory tools cross-checked against a serological survey that detected 13 infected villages. The capture-recapture analysis of these two detection sources led us to the conclusion that 315 (CI(95%) 117-514) villages experienced clinical cases of foot-and-mouth disease in Svay Rieng province in 2009, corresponding to a village-level annual prevalence rate of 0.46 (CI(95%) 0.17-0.74). The official reporting rate to provincial authorities could therefore be evaluated at 0.05 (CI(95%) 0.03-0.13). An analysis of the sensitivity of the estimation of the number of cases to the radius used for enlargement of Source 1 was performed, indicating its low influence. This study clearly highlights the highly enzootic situation of Cambodia regarding foot-and-mouth disease and the substantial underreporting of clinically affected villages to veterinary authorities. We propose explanations for this low notification rate, stress the importance of accurate reporting procedures and, finally, discuss the potential of capture-recapture techniques as a tool for the quantitative evaluation of animal disease surveillance systems.  相似文献   
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