农产品监测预警模型集群构建理论方法与应用

【目的】农产品供给与需求的准确分析测定,是农业监测预警能力提升的重要表现。构建产品多品种多环节模型集群理论方法,可高效解决单一环节或单一模型难以解决的分析技术难题。【方法】在农产品供需的重要要素即生产量、消费量、贸易量、价格等分析预测过程中,针对农产品品种间关联性强,自然、社会、经济诸多影响因素纠缠,模型多变量强耦合、非线性、参数时变的特点,提出多品种农产品“因素分类解耦、参数转用适配”方法,以构建多时空维度的监测预警模型集群。【结果】利用“因素分类解耦、参数转用适配”技术方法,研究构建了不同农产品的生产类、消费类、贸易类、价格类的模型集群。这些模型集群可用于对不同时空维度的水稻、玉米、小麦、肉类等主要农产品供需的长中短期的分析预测,支撑形成了农业展望中的主要农产品平衡表,其中主要农产品全国年度生产量6年平均预测精度高于97%。【结论】研究提出的农产品监测预警模型集群构建理论及其方法,有效提升了农产品多品种模型集群的求解效率和准确率,增强了农产品供需分析预测的系统性与智能性,为系统揭示农产品复杂的时空供需变化特征、促进农产品市场调控科学性和可预见性,提供了新技术方法。     

Local adaptation studies and conservation: Parasite–host interactions between the endangered freshwater mussel Unio crassus and its host fish

1. Parasite–host interactions can involve strong reciprocal selection pressure, and may lead to locally adapted specializations. The highly threatened unionoid mussels are temporary parasites on fish, but local adaptation has not yet been investigated for many species.
2. Patterns of local adaptation of one of Europe's most threatened unionoids, the thick‐shelled river mussel (Unio crassus) were investigated. Eurasian minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) from two rivers (separate drainage areas) were cross‐infested in the laboratory with sympatric and allopatric mussel larvae, while bullheads (Cottus gobio), inhabiting only one of the rivers, were infested with sympatric or allopatric mussel larvae. Larval encystment, juvenile mussel excystment and survival were measured.
3. For one river, but not the other, juvenile excystment from P. phoxinus was highest when infested with sympatric mussels. The opposite pattern was found for C. gobio in this river, where juvenile excystment and post‐parasitic juvenile survival from allopatric C. gobio were highest. The results thus cannot confirm local adaptation of U. crassus to P. phoxinus in the study rivers, as excystment was not consistently higher in all sympatric mussel–host combinations, whereas there were potential maladaptive signs of U. crassus in relation to C. gobio. There was no loss of encysted larvae 3 days after infestation until juvenile excystment. Most juveniles were excysted between 17 and 29 days after infestation, and the numbers of excysted juveniles increased with fish size.
4. The results have implications for parasite–host ecology and conservation management with regard to unionoid propagation and re‐introduction. This includes the need to (1) test suitability and adaptation patterns between U. crassus and multiple host fish species, (2) evaluate the suitability of certain unionoids and host fish strains after more than 3 days, and (3) determine whether large fish produce more juvenile mussels than smaller fish.

     

Settlement behavior of American lobster (Homarus americanus): effect of female origin and developmental temperature

The benthic settlement success of American lobster (Homarus americanus) postlarvae is a key factor in population dynamics, with the temperature being a key factor. Given the spatial distribution of the species, its pelagic larvae probably encounter various thermal zones during development. Little information is available on the ability of lobster larvae to acclimate to temperature or if this ability varies among geographic areas. The main objectives of this study were to characterize (i) the settlement behavior of the postlarvae in relation to (a) temperature during larval development and (b) the geographic origin of the maternal parent and (ii) the behavioral response of postlarvae with different thermal histories in the presence/absence of a thermocline. Results did not support the hypothesis of thermal adaptation among local populations, as settlement behavior of postlarvae did not differ among females from different geographic regions. In contrast, larval survival and settlement behavior and postlarval energetic conditions varied with development temperature. Behavioral plasticity in the benthic settlement was observed in relation to temperature structure of the experimental water column. This study suggests that there may be links between development temperature and the natural variability in survival and settlement of American lobsters. Findings emphasize the need for an integrated approach in lobster recruitment studies with the inclusion of behavior in dispersion models.     

Body shape variation in two species of darters (Etheostoma,Percidae) and its relation to the environment

Environmental variation can shape phenotypic variation in organisms, but most evidence for trait differentiation comes from analyses of dichotomous habitat types that differ in only one or few key environmental factors. In reality, environmental variation is often more subtle, gradual and multifarious. Here, we investigated geographic variation in body shape of two darter species (Etheostoma spectabile and Etheostoma flabellare; Percidae) that occur along river gradients. This study addressed three specific questions: Is there intraspecific geographic variation in the two species across different sites in the Ozark Highlands of Oklahoma (USA)? Is phenotypic variation across sites correlated with abiotic environmental conditions? Do the two species share site‐specific (i.e. convergent) phenotypic variation in areas where they occur together? Our results indicated significant body shape variation in both species. Population differences in body shape were particularly correlated with variation in substrate composition. The combined analysis of both species indicated a small but significant effect of convergence on body shape wherever they are sympatric; shared variation, however, was not related to any environmental variables included in the analysis. While it remains unclear whether phenotypic variation in these species is due to heritable differentiation or environmentally induced plasticity, our results indicate that even subtle and gradual environmental variation can induce substantial variation in phenotypes on a relatively small spatial scale.     

气候变化适应及其影响因素研究——山东胶州湾地区居民的实证分析

为探索气候变化感知在适应决策过程中的作用机理，本研究以深度访谈数据为基础，基于“感知－适应”分析框架，采用二元Probit模型和泊松回归模型，分析胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策和适应选择的影响因素。研究表明，胶州湾地区绝大多数居民已经感知到气候变化，半数以上居民采取了一定的适应措施，大多数居民对适应措施效果的感到满意。居民采取适应措施介于0-4项，平均为1.07项，适应措施的普及率和多样化仍有提升空间。影响胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策与适应选择的主要因素存在一定差异性，但“居民对气候变化的感知”不论是对适应决策还是对适应选择的影响都较大，其中又以“对降水变化的感知”和“对气象灾害损失的感知”最为显著。     

Phenotypic plasticity in the morphology of small benthic Icelandic Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus)

Intraspecific phenotypic diversity is the raw material for evolution, so understanding its origin and maintenance is critically important for conservation of biodiversity. Intraspecific diversity in a trait or a suite of traits can result from genetic diversity and/or phenotypic plasticity. The two are, however, not independent as plasticity has been shown to evolve. In this study, we evaluated the importance of phenotypic plasticity in generating morphological diversity in populations of small benthic Arctic charr in Iceland, using a rearing experiment with contrasting modes of feeding. We also examined the association between phenotypic plasticity in offspring groups generated by the contrasting feeding modes and important ecological variables characterising the natural habitats of the respective populations. Although the level of plasticity could not be related to any of the ecological measurements, clear differences in morphological reaction norms among populations suggest that plasticity is an important aspect of morphological diversity of the charr. It is not clear whether that plasticity is adaptive, but it is notable that reaction norms in all populations have similar reaction to the treatments.     

Bonga shad (Ethmalosa fimbriata) spawning tactics in an upwelling environment

Successful recruitment in small pelagic fish populations inhabiting upwelling zones is subject to variation in fecundity and is driven by spatial and temporal fluctuations in environmental conditions, that is, mainly sea surface temperature, salinity and food availability. These fluctuations in abiotic factors have stimulated small pelagic fish populations to exhibit specifically adapted spawning tactics. To better understand to what extent a short‐lived exploited fish species such as bonga shad Ethmalosa fimbriata has adapted to an upwelling environment, we have investigated the interrelationship between upwelling intensity as a proxy for productivity and population fecundity by means of a virtual population analysis. We found that females of intermediate size contributed significantly more eggs to the population's fecundity than smaller or larger ones. Our model results further indicate that E. fimbriata exhibits a spawning preference at water temperatures of around 25°C and upwelling intensities of around 2.5 m³ s^?1 m^?1. Hence, we hypothesize that climate change‐driven increases in sea temperatures and modifications of upwelling‐favourable winds could significantly impact the species’ reproductive biology. To understand how climate change might impact fisheries, spawning tactics of small pelagic fishes are important to assess as well as their recruitment success. Such information is particularly relevant in countries where the fishery is critical at socio‐economic level, to better implement fisheries management addressing multiple stressors.