气候变化及农户适应性行为对大豆播种面积的影响

为了探讨气候变化及农户适应性行为对大豆播种面积的影响,以黑龙江地区作为研究对象,通过统计分析经济、气候和农户数据,明确气候变化对大豆播种面积产生的影响。具体而言,降水量和温度对大豆播种面积有显著影响,降水量增加和温度升高会促使农户增加大豆种植面积。此外,农户的适应性行为也对大豆播种面积产生了影响。农户的适应性行为主要包括改变种植品种、调整种植时间和改变农业管理方式等。研究结果对黑龙江地区的大豆种植管理和气候变化适应提供了参考。     

陕北农户对气候变化的感知研究——以陕北靖边南部和延安北部乡村为例

通过在陕北黄土高原丘陵地区农户对气候变化感知的研究,采用问卷调查并运用统计描述方法对其处理,结合气象站监测数据对比分析陕北黄土高原丘陵区的农户对气候变化的感知及如何适应气候变化。结果显示：33.84%的农户认为气温有升高的趋势;54.9%的居民认为当地降水量有下降趋势;同时26.3%的农户感觉自然灾害增多;近40%的农户认为气候变化对农业影响升高或明显升高。不同文化水平的农户对气候变化和自然灾害感知方面存在明显的差异;农户为适应气候变化,自主调整种植结构、引进新品种、购买农业保险及打工或移民措施适应气候变化。     

气候变化导致的冬小麦产量波动及应对措施模拟

气候变化导致中国气候资源发生变化,从而影响中国未来的农业生产。利用区域气候模式模拟的未来两种温室气体排放方案A2和B2下的气候变化情景分别与CERES-小麦模式相连接,研究了气候变化下中国北方地区冬小麦长时间序列的产量波动及产量变率的可能变化,及采取两种适应措施后,产量波动及变率的相应变化。结果表明,A2和B2两种气候变化情景下,未来3个时段冬小麦平均产量和最高产量会有所增高,但产量的年际波动和变率也将明显加大,产量的年际变幅也会显著增加。采取适应措施后,调整播期和改变品种会减少产量的波动和变率,该地区播期适当提前,选用中熟品种是未来气候变化下的较好适应组合。     

DSSAT模型在中国农业与气候变化领域应用进展

为了掌握农业转移支持决策系统(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT)模型在国内农业与气候变化领域的研究进展,更好地让模型在今后气候变化对农业生产影响评估和适应研究中应用,本文以近年来国内的研究和实践为基础,通过梳理模型应用的相关研究案例、方法和成果,从DSSAT 模型本地化适用性验证、数据库构建、参数订正和优化方案、气候变化影响评估及适应的应用等方面全面总结了模型的应用进展。结果表明：DSSAT模型在我国应用比较广泛,包括不同地区和不同作物之间;利用DSSAT模型研究气候变化对农业生产的影响的研究较多,研究结果比较丰富。但模型在应用中存在研究方法和结果比较分散、应用的作物种类有限、数据需求量大而实验数据有限等问题,这些都需要在今后的研究中不断完善解决。     

新乡市居民乡村旅游决策行为及影响因素研究

居民乡村旅游决策行为受众多因素影响,筛选影响乡村旅游决策行为的关键因子,将为景区管理部门提升景区吸引力提供重要依据。本研究筛选了12项观测指标,从4个维度分析了新乡市居民的乡村旅游决策行为,构建了基于AMOS结构方程的决策模型。结果表明：居民收入水平、休闲时间和受教育程度是影响乡村旅游决策的重要因素。景区形象对旅游决策的直接影响最大,表明景区自身因素是促使居民做出最终决策的直接因子。旅游攻略主要通过旅游期望对决策产生影响。提高居民收入水平和乡村旅游景区品牌知名度将对城市居民乡村旅游决策的形成产生正向影响。     

乡村居民灾害感知分析

居民灾害感知在一定程度上影响到政府减灾战略的制定和实施。乡村居民的灾害感知是居民灾害感知的重要组成部分,也是新农村建设要考虑的重要因素。采用入户访谈的形式,对宝鸡市陈仓区桥镇4个自然村的居民进行了问卷调查,并对乡村居民灾害感知进行了分析。结果表明：（1）居民主要担心的灾害类型是暴雨和洪水,并且认为类似灾害还有可能发生;（2）居民多采用传统防灾措施应对灾害;（3）灾害信息获取以大众传媒为主,渠道单一;（4）居民灾后寻求帮助的对象多倾向于家人和邻居、基层政府次之,居民灾后寻求帮助的可能性随着社会距离（社会关系的疏远度）的增加呈现衰减趋势;（5）面对灾害,居民愿意采取防范措施。     

气候变化对农业生产的影响探析

气候变化会改变地区的温度、光照、水资源等,给农业的种植制度、管理方式、病害防治等多个方面带来不可忽视的影响。详细说明了气候变化对农业生产中各个因子的影响,提出了规避影响的措施,希望给相关的研究者提供一定的帮助。     

1991～1993年黄淮地区气候变化对棉花生产的影响

据对黄淮地区４县气象资料分析，１９９１～１９９３年棉花生长季节气候变化呈寡照、冷温和干旱年型。因气候变化导致棉花迟发晚熟，优质棉比例不足６０％，减产１０％～３０％，纤维品质指标特别是套种棉花呈明显下降趋势。根据气候变化和当前棉花生产中的问题，提出并强调本地区棉花栽培技术应以有效解决迟发晚熟为核心，进一步肯定棉花育苗移栽和地膜覆盖，在赢得生长季节和弥补热量资源不足中的重要作用，强调棉麦两熟要以套种春棉为主，套种方式要以标准“四二”、“三二”式为主，栽培措施要以“两膜”为主。针对提高光热水资源利用率，提出了棉花栽培技术的研究途径和方向。     

基于DSSAT模型模拟的气候变化对棉花生产潜力影响研究

【目的】运用农业技术转移决策支持系统(Decision support system for agrotechnology transfer, DSSAT)模型分析石河子地区气候变化对棉花生产潜力的影响,为棉花种植管理的可持续发展提供思路。【方法】本研究以石河子地区田间试验数据为基础,验证DSSAT V4.7模型适用性,模拟棉花光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力,并分析了气候变化对棉花生产潜力的影响。【结果】经过品种参数调试校正,模型的模拟值与试验的实测值吻合度较高,可用于石河子地区棉花的研究。近51年来石河子地区棉花生育期的平均气温和太阳总辐射呈显著上升趋势,降水量变化不显著,并且在棉花的不同生育阶段气候变化趋势有所差异;棉花的实际产量和光温生产潜力都呈极显著上升趋势,其中生产潜力的平均值是实际产量的3.6倍,由于该地区降水量的稀少导致气候生产潜力模型模拟结果不理想;棉花光温生产潜力与生育期内的气象因子有较强的相关性,与月平均最低气温和月太阳总辐射呈极显著正相关,与大多月降水量和部分月平均最高气温相关性不显著,因此气温和太阳总辐射的增加,有利于棉花增产。【结论】气候变化对石河子地区棉花的产量和生产潜力具有一定的正面影响。     

基于计量地理分析的农地规模经营影响因素作用机理研究

农地规模化经营对于提高粮食产量、保护耕地、提高农民收入具有重要意义。已有研究主要从政策制度或社会经济角度对该问题展开论述,尚未将农地利用的自然属性特征考虑在内,而该特征对农地规模化经营尺度的确定有着最直接的作用和影响。本研究以黑龙江省3个乡镇为研究区,以2015年遥感影像为数据源,在RS和GIS技术平台下,建立农地规模化经营管理数据库,运用计量地理模型获取农地规模化经营的自然影响因素,采取调查问卷形式,获取农地规模化经营的环境影响因素,运用logistics模型找出影响研究区农地规模化经营的主要因素,并对各因素的影响程度进行排序,进而分析各影响因素对农地规模化经营的作用机理。研究成果对于保障我国粮食安全及促进我国农业现代化进程具有重要意义。     

陕南民众气候变化感知时空变化研究

为构建环境变化响应敏感区气候变化适应管理模式提供依据。通过问卷调查和实测数据对比的方式,以人对气温（降水）变化的感知为切入点,探讨陕南民众对气候变化感知的时空变化规律。结果表明：（1）陕南民众对当地温度（降水）变化的感知与科学观测的数据基本吻合,但各个时段存在差异,对温度变化的平均感知强度强于对降水变化的平均感知强度;（2）随年龄变小,陕南民众对温度变化的感知强度在波动中呈变小趋势。对降水变化的感知,汉中民众随年龄变小在波动中呈现增加趋势,安康、商洛地区则相反;（3）陕南民众对温度（降水）变化的感知与科学观测数据之间具有偏差。汉中、安康和商洛民众对温度变化的感知与仪器观测的温度变化一致率依次为22.2%、55.6%和33.3%,对降水变化的感知与实测降水变化的一致率依次为100%、44.4%和66.7%。     

Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

The studies on anthropogenic climate change performed in the last decade over Europe show consistent projections of increases in temperature and different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and decreases over parts of southern and eastern Europe. In many countries and in recent years there is a tendency towards cereal grain yield stagnation and increased yield variability. Some of these trends may have been influenced by the recent climatic changes over Europe.A set of qualitative and quantitative questionnaires on perceived risks and foreseen impacts of climate and climate change on agriculture in Europe was distributed to agro-climatic and agronomy experts in 26 countries. Europe was divided into 13 Environmental Zones (EZ). In total, we had 50 individual responses for specific EZ. The questionnaires provided both country and EZ specific information on the: (1) main vulnerabilities of crops and cropping systems under present climate; (2) estimates of climate change impacts on the production of nine selected crops; (3) possible adaptation options as well as (4) adaptation observed so far. In addition we focused on the overall awareness and presence of warning and decision support systems with relevance for adaptation to climate change.The results show that farmers across Europe are currently adapting to climate change, in particular in terms of changing timing of cultivation and selecting other crop species and cultivars. The responses in the questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of negative expectations concerning the impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate northern European countries.The expected impacts, both positive and negative, are just as large in northern Europe as in the Mediterranean countries, and this is largely linked with the possibilities for effective adaptation to maintain current yields. The most negative effects were found for the continental climate in the Pannonian zone, which includes Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. This region will suffer from increased incidents of heat waves and droughts without possibilities for effectively shifting crop cultivation to other parts of the years. A wide range of adaptation options exists in most European regions to mitigate many of the negative impacts of climate change on crop production in Europe. However, considering all effects of climate change and possibilties for adaptation, impacts are still mostly negative in wide regions across Europe.     

Participatory design of farm level adaptation to climate risks in an arable region in The Netherlands

In the arable farming region Flevoland in The Netherlands climate change, including extreme events and pests and diseases, will likely pose risks to a variety of crops including high value crops such as seed potato, ware potato and seed onion. A well designed adaptation strategy at the farm level can reduce risks for farmers in Flevoland. Currently, most of the impact assessments rely heavily on (modelling) techniques that cannot take into account extreme events and pests and diseases and cannot address all crops, and are thus not suited as input for a comprehensive adaptation strategy at the farm level.To identify major climate risks and impacts and develop an adaptation measure portfolio for the most relevant risks we complemented crop growth modelling with a semi-quantitative and participatory approach, the Agro Climatic Calendar (ACC), A cost-benefit analysis and stakeholder workshops were used to identify robust adaptation measures and design an adaptation strategy for contrasting scenarios in 2050.For Flevoland, potential yields of main crops were projected to increase, but five main climate risks were identified, and these are likely to offset the positive impacts. Optimized adaptation strategies differ per scenario (frequency of occurrence of climate risks) and per farm (difference in economic loss). When impacts are high (in the +2 °C and A1 SRES scenario) drip irrigation was identified as the best adaptation measure against the main climate risk heat wave that causes second-growth in seed and ware potato. When impacts are smaller (the +1 °C and B2 SRES scenario), other options including no adaptation are more cost-effective.Our study shows that with relatively simple techniques such as the ACC combined with a stakeholder process, adaptation strategies can be designed for whole farming systems. Important benefits of this approach compared to modelling techniques are that all crops can be included, all climate factors can be addressed, and a large range of adaptation measures can be explored. This enhances that the identified adaptation strategies are recognizable and relevant for stakeholders.     

胶州湾典型站位小型底栖生物丰度和生物量的季节变化研究

2003年-2004年对胶州湾B2站小型底栖生物进行了7个航次的调查,结果表明B2站小型底栖生物的平均丰度是1889±609 ind.10cm-2,其中5月丰度值最高,为2721.5±776.7 ind.10cm-2,最低值出现在2003年9月,其丰度为1094.2 ±497.4 ind.10cm-2;平均生物量和生产量分别为1292.3±534.4μg dwt?10cm-2和11630.4±4809.5μg dwt?10cm-2?a-1。One-Way ANOVA分析表明,B2站小型底栖动物丰度和生物量存在显著的季节变化。共鉴定出17个小型底栖动物类群,其中线虫占绝对优势,其平均丰度是1801.82 ind.10cm-2,占小型底栖动物总丰度的95.4%。小型底栖生物数量与环境因子的相关分析表明,影响小型底栖生物数量发生季节变化的主要因子0-2cm表层Chl-a含量。     

Voluntary immobility and existential security in a changing climate in the Pacific

With the expectation of adverse climate change impacts, some (often majority) Indigenous populations of the Pacific are expressing a preference to remain on Indigenous lands for cultural and spiritual reasons. In some cases, Indigenous people express preparedness to die on traditional territory rather than relocate, representing a new type of agency and resistance to dispossession. This is a prominent politics of place of relevance to emerging debates and decision‐making around retreat and relocation. If climate change is experienced by populations as an existential threat to culture, identity and place‐based connections, voluntary immobility can be an important adaptation strategy that helps to strengthen cultural and spiritual resilience among those facing the prospect of a lost homeland. This paper argues that voluntary immobility decisions need ethically robust and culturally appropriate policies and practices, particularly when a site is deemed by external experts to be no longer fit for human settlement. National governments, civil society groups, international organisations and donors will need to: engage in culturally meaningful dialogue with communities about relocation and immobility; respect, protect and fulfil the rights of ‘immobile’ people and those on the move; and confirm that in situ adaptation options have been exhausted.     

Does carbon emission trading contribute to reducing infectious diseases? Evidence from China

Research at the biophysical level constitutes the main approach to study the path through which climate influences infectious diseases, but the influence of socioeconomic factors on climate change and the spread of infectious diseases also cannot be ignored. In the current context, with its emphasis on carbon emission reduction, countries have begun to adopt “total control and trading” methods to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper is based on the monthly relevant data of various provinces and cities from 2015 to 2019, adds the moderating variable of “carbon emission trading volume” based on current research results, establishes a static model of unbalanced panel fixed effects and a dynamic panel model, and deeply analyzes the impact of climate change on infectious disease popularity and the moderating effect of the carbon trading market. The study found that climate warming, frequent precipitation, and shortened sunshine duration will lead to an increase in the number of infectious disease cases and that the “carbon emission trading volume” variable plays a negative role in the positive correlation between climate change (temperature/precipitation) and the number of infectious disease cases. There are seasonal differences, and the moderating effect in summer/autumn is more obvious than that in winter/spring.     

Migration‐affected change and vulnerability in rural Vanuatu

Migration is increasingly being promoted as a possible adaptive response to risks associated with climate change and other stresses. While migration may present an adaptation pathway in certain contexts, existing research fails to consider the ways in which migration could contribute to vulnerability in sending communities. This paper examines the impact of migration‐affected change on local vulnerability in Lamen Bay, Vanuatu. Qualitative methods, including interviews and focus groups with 58 individuals, were used to determine how migration interacts with the multiple stressors faced by the community. The results show that migration is likely to contribute to vulnerability in already vulnerable communities. In Lamen Bay, migration affects a number of contextual factors that influence exposure and the capacity to respond to change, including labour supply, food security, migrant attitudes, underdevelopment and institutional viability. These results suggest that development policy in Vanuatu needs to address existing vulnerabilities while offering the opportunity to migrate.     

Location Decision Making of “Creative” Industries: The Media and Computer Game Sectors in Dublin,Ireland

There has been significant research undertaken examining the “creative class” thesis within the context of the locational preferences of creative workers. However, relatively little attention has been given to the locational preferences of creative companies within the same context. This paper reports on research conducted to qualitatively analyse the location decision making of companies in two creative sectors: media and computer games. We address the role of the so‐called “hard” and “soft” factors in company location decision making within the context of the creative class thesis, which suggests that company location is primarily determined by “soft” factors rather than “hard” factors. The study focuses upon “core” creative industries in the media and computer game sectors and utilises interview data with company managers and key elite actors in the sector to investigate the foregoing questions. The results show that “hard” factors are of primary importance for the location decision making in the sectors analysed, but that “soft” factors play quite an important role when “hard” factors are satisfactory in more than one competing city‐region.     

Climate change trends in Malta and related beliefs,concerns and attitudes toward adaptation among Gozitan farmers

In this study we report the results obtained from an island-wide survey aimed at researching an under-emphasized key feature of climate change adaptation—namely willingness to adapt on the basis of the perceptions and beliefs held by the Gozitan livestock and crop farmers. Some of the main objectives of this study included the: (1) determination of whether the current perception is in line with the observed climatic changes at the local scale, and (2) identification of the typology of these farmers, together with those factors that affect both skepticism and acceptance of climate change. This study provided an important first step in the objective validation of local farmers' perceptions of climate change, as well as in the development of a comprehensive understanding of their attitude, beliefs, willingness and capacity to adjust their practices in response to climate change. The results pointed to several important conclusions that can be used to inform research, outreach strategies and policy formulation, targeting the Gozitan farming sector to adapt to climate change without delay. The forgoing analysis showed a dire need for more information both on impacts and risks, as well as on ways how to introduce new farming techniques and practices.