陕南民众气候变化感知时空变化研究

为构建环境变化响应敏感区气候变化适应管理模式提供依据。通过问卷调查和实测数据对比的方式，以人对气温（降水）变化的感知为切入点，探讨陕南民众对气候变化感知的时空变化规律。结果表明：（1）陕南民众对当地温度（降水）变化的感知与科学观测的数据基本吻合，但各个时段存在差异，对温度变化的平均感知强度强于对降水变化的平均感知强度；（2）随年龄变小，陕南民众对温度变化的感知强度在波动中呈变小趋势。对降水变化的感知，汉中民众随年龄变小在波动中呈现增加趋势，安康、商洛地区则相反；（3）陕南民众对温度（降水）变化的感知与科学观测数据之间具有偏差。汉中、安康和商洛民众对温度变化的感知与仪器观测的温度变化一致率依次为22.2%、55.6%和33.3%，对降水变化的感知与实测降水变化的一致率依次为100%、44.4%和66.7%。

Study on Spatial-temporal Variation of Public Perception of Climate Change in Southern Shaanxi

The paper aims to provide the basis for building climate change adaptation and management mode in the sensitive area of environmental changes. By comparing the questionnaire survey results with the measured climate data, based on public perception on temperature (precipitation) changes as a breakthrough point, the paper revealed spatial-temporal variations of general public perception of climate change from the man-land relationship in southern Shaanxi. Results showed that: (1) local residents’ perceptions of local temperature (precipitation) were basically consistent with scientific measurements, but was different among each time period, the average perception intensities of precipitation change were weaker than that of temperature change; (2) local residents’ perception intensities of temperature change became smaller in fluctuation with age decreasing, for perception of precipitation change, residents in Hanzhong Area showed an increasing trend in fluctuation with age decreasing, while the situation was the opposite in Ankang and Shangluo Area; (3) the deviations existed between the resident’s perception and scientific measurements, in contrast to scientific measurements, the consistent ratings of the residents’ perception of temperature changes in Hanzhong, Ankang and Shangluo Areas were 22.2%, 55.6% and 33.3%, respectively; The consistent ratings of the residents’ perception of precipitation change were 100%, 44.4%, and 66.7%, respectively.