A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

不同培养基继代培养蜡蚧轮枝菌对产孢量和烟粉虱毒力的影响

为了探究不同培养基继代培养的蜡蚧轮枝菌对烟粉虱的作用效果,通过继代培养方法测定JMC-01、JMC-02菌株的产孢量、对烟粉虱的毒力及其几丁质酶活性。结果表明,JMC-01、JMC-02菌株在添加蝉蜕和烟粉虱的PDA培养基中连续培养5代的产孢量、对烟粉虱的毒力、几丁质酶活性均高于无添加的PDA培养基,且JMC-01菌株的各项参数均高于JMC-02菌株。JMC-01菌株在添加蝉蜕的PDA培养基中T_1和T_3代的产孢量最大,均为1.279×10~7个/mL,T_3代对烟粉虱的毒力最大,为88.33%,T_5代的几丁质酶活最高,为0.268 3 U/mL;在添加烟粉虱的PDA培养基中,JMC-01菌株的最大产孢量、对烟粉虱的最高毒力和最高几丁质酶活分别出现在S_2、S_4和S_5代,分别为1.270×10~7个/mL、88.33%和0.325 4 U/mL。回归分析结果显示,JMC-01、JMC-02菌株几丁质酶活性与烟粉虱校正死亡率呈显著的正相关,且拟合优度较好。本试验表明JMC-01、JMC-02菌株均对烟粉虱具有较强的毒力,添加蝉蜕和烟粉虱的培养基可以维持菌株生长特性、增加产孢量、延缓菌株退化、增强菌株的几丁质酶活性,为烟粉虱的生物防治提供了新的菌种资源。     

Quantifying uncertainty in the wild‐caught fisheries goal of the Ocean Health Index

Sustainability indices are proliferating, both to help synthesize scientific understanding and inform policy. However, it remains poorly understood how such indices are affected by underlying assumptions of the data and modelling approaches used to compute indicator values. Here, we focus on one such indicator, the fisheries goal within the Ocean Health Index (OHI), which evaluates the sustainable provision of food from wild fisheries. We quantify uncertainty in the fisheries goal status arising from the (a) approach for estimating missing data (i.e., fish stocks with no status) and (b) reliance on a data‐limited method (catch‐MSY) to estimate stock status (i.e., B/B_MSY). We also compare several other models to estimate B/B_MSY, including an ensemble approach, to determine whether alternative models might reduce uncertainty and bias. We find that the current OHI fisheries goal model results in overly optimistic fisheries goal statuses. Uncertainty and bias can be reduced by (a) using a mean (vs. median) gap‐filling approach to estimate missing stock scores and (b) estimating fisheries status using the central tendency from a simulated distribution of status scores generated by a bootstrap approach that incorporates error in B/B_MSY. This multitiered approach to measure and describe uncertainty improves the transparency and interpretation of the indicator and allows us to better understand uncertainty around our OHI fisheries model and outputs for country‐level interpretation and use.     

Life history demographic parameter synthesis for exploited Florida and Caribbean coral reef fishes

Age‐ or length‐structured stock assessments require reliable life history demographic parameters (growth, mortality, reproduction) to model population dynamics, potential yields and stock sustainability. This study synthesized life history information for 84 commercially exploited tropical reef fish species from Florida and the U.S. Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands). We attempted to identify a useable set of life history parameters for each species that included lifespan, length at age, weight at length and maturity at length. Key aspects of the life history synthesis were development of: (a) a database that characterized study details including sampling region, biological and statistical methods, length range of sampled individuals, sample size, capture gears and sampling time frame; (b) reproducible procedural criteria for parameter identification for a given species; and (c) a reliability metric for each parameter type. Complete life history parameter sets were available for 46 species analysed. Of these, only 16 species had parameter sets meeting the highest standards for reliability, highlighting future research needs.     

大叶榉愈伤组织诱导与继代培养的影响因素

以大叶榉种子的子叶、胚轴、顶芽、嫩枝叶片和茎段等为外植体 ,对大叶榉进行愈伤组织诱导及继代培养研究 .结果表明 :不同外植体的愈伤组织诱导能力有差异 ,其诱导率按高低顺序排列依次为子叶、胚轴、叶片、茎段和顶芽 ;愈伤组织质地、颜色、生长速度与基本培养基、外源激素有很大的关系 ,基本培养基以 WPM培养基最好 ;最佳诱导培养基不适合继代保存 ;在培养基中附加抗氧化剂并调整激素种类 ,可较好地防止褐变现象     

光照强度、通气量等因素对腊梅继代培养的影响

在腊梅继代培养中，探讨了影响光合作用的几种因素对植株生长的影响，结果表明：增加培养瓶内通气量(设置4个通气孔)、增强培养光照(7800 1x)、增加接种芽的功能叶片数（2片)、培养基中添加谷氨酸（10mg／L)均能增强植株的光合能力，使瓶苗具有旺盛的生长势、增殖系数提高到6．2。     

农田灌溉限量开采地下水的主要途径与方法

针对山西省运城地区因地下水超采而产生的地面下沉、地裂、农用机井报废等一系列环境问题，通过计算分析，提出了一个既能满足农业发展对水的需求，又能维持地下水资源环境平衡的地下水可开采量，并就实施限量开采地下水的途径、技术措施、管理机制、水价体系及政策保障等进行了综合分析与阐述。     

橡胶树花药愈伤组织继代培养与胚状体发生能力研究

利用橡胶树花药愈伤组织进行继代培养与胚状体诱导,结果表明,在诱导愈伤组织、继代培养和分化胚状体中MS培养基稍优于改良MS培养基;以继代1代的愈伤组织胚状体的诱导率最高,分别达到70.8%和67.5%;在继代0代、2代和3代之间差异达到极显著,在继代4代时差异达到显著,其他继代次数之间差异不显著。在继代8代后,两种培养基的诱导率逐渐升高,分别达到44.6%和35.3%。     

有限供水对夏玉米根系生长及底墒利用影响的研究

设计5种不同供水处理进行对夏玉米根系生长和底墒利用的影响试验。结果表明,有限供水对夏玉米根长的影响效应比根生物量显著,有限供水能促使夏玉米更多地利用土壤底墒,供水少,底墒利用率高,凸现出夏玉米对土壤缺水干旱的生理性适应机制和抗旱生态反应。5种供水处理以供水151．3mm,耗水190．1mm的夏玉米产量收获指数和水分利用效率最高。改变高水高产的传统耕作观念,推行有限供水,生育期内合理调配灌水量,提高水分利用效率,发挥土壤水库的调节作用,达到稳产又节水的生态农业目的。     

德国鸢尾新品种"魂断蓝桥"离体快繁的研究

以"魂断蓝桥"的花葶为外植体进行不定芽的诱导和继代增殖的研究。结果表明:将花葶分节点接种在MS+BA 3.0 mg/L+NAA 1.0 mg/L中,其不定芽的分化率最高;在继代增殖过程中,把带芽量为4~5个的外植体接种在MS+BA 2.0 mg/L+NAA 1.0 mg/L中,继代周期为30 d,其增殖系数达到最大。