Random-effects linear model application to herd-level assessment of bovine hepatic trace mineral concentrations

To evaluate the utility of random-effects linear modeling for herd-level evaluation of trace mineral status, we performed a retrospective analysis of the results for trace mineral testing of bovine liver samples submitted to the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory between 2011 and 2017. Our aim was to examine random-effects models for their potential utility in improving interpretation with minimal sample numbers. The database consisted of 1,658 animals distributed among 121 herds. Minerals were assayed by inductively coupled plasma–mass spectroscopy, and included cobalt, copper, iron, molybdenum, manganese, selenium, and zinc. Intraclass correlation coefficients for each mineral were significantly different (p < 0.001) from zero and ranged from 0.38 for manganese to 0.82 for selenium, indicating that the strength of herd effects, which are presumably related to diet, vary greatly by mineral. Analysis of the distribution and standard errors of best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) values suggested that testing 5–10 animals per herd could place herds within 10 percentile units across the population of herds with 70–95% confidence, the confidence level varying among minerals. Herd means were generally similar to BLUPs, suggesting that means could be reasonably compared to BLUPs with respect to the distributions reported here. However, caution in interpreting means relative to BLUPs should be exercised when animal numbers are small, the standard errors of the means are large, and/or the values are near the extremes of the distribution.     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

基于PLSR-BP复合模型的红壤有机质含量反演研究

对红壤地区土壤有机质进行快速预测,以满足智慧农业与精准施肥的需要。以江西省奉新县北部为研究区域,采用1 km×1 km标准格网划分研究区进行采样,共得到红壤样本248个。对土壤光谱进行了包含分数阶导数在内的3种数学变换方法,将经过P=0.01显著性检验的波段用于模型的构建,选用偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)和BP神经网络建立土壤有机质含量预测模型。结果表明:当对红壤光谱数据进行1.5阶导数变换后再使用PLSR-BP复合模型对土壤有机质含量进行预测时的结果为最优,训练集R~2=0.89,RMSE=4.68g·kg~(-1),验证集R~2=0.87,RMSE=5.55g·kg~(-1),RPD=2.75。1.5阶导数对红壤光谱数据的变换能够更好地突出与有机质相关的特征信息,有助于其含量预测。PLSR-BP复合模型预测精度优于单一模型,能够较好地预测红壤有机质含量,为精准农业快速监测红壤有机质含量提供了新的途径。     

Drivers of Setaria pumila (Poir.) Roem. et Schult growth and impact on forage quality in lowland Switzerland meadows

Invasive grasses (especially Setaria pumila (Poir.) Roem. et Schult) increasingly threaten meadows and pastures as a consequence of human impact and climate change. We conducted a study in 2012 and in 2013 to better understand the growing cycle and the influence of S. pumila on forage quality of lowland meadows. We observed a rapid increase of S. pumila presence and phytomass on the southern side of the Alps across the growing season. We measured (i) above‐ground phytomass, with a modified Corral‐Fenlon method; (ii) botanical composition using the linear point quadrat method; and (iii) grassland chemical composition by NIRs (near‐infrared spectroscopy) analyses. To test the hypothesis that S. pumila summer growth is related to specific climatic conditions, meteorological data (temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration) were collected from meteorological stations near the study sites. Total phytomass was sorted into S. pumila and other species. We used a generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and found the abundance of S. pumila to be inversely correlated with rainfall and the presence of other species, but positively correlated with temperature increase. The increase of S. pumila above‐ground phytomass production was linked to a reduction of forage quality.     

Linking small pelagic fish and cetacean distribution to model suitable habitat for coastal dolphin species,Delphinus delphis and Tursiops truncatus,in the Greek Seas (Eastern Mediterranean)

1. A large‐scale assessment of the summertime suitable habitat for Delphinus delphis (short‐beaked common dolphin) and Tursiops truncatus (common bottlenose dolphin) in Greek Seas (Eastern Mediterranean) was conducted using data from dedicated and opportunistic cetacean surveys and published data records.
2. Using a presence/absence approach, generalized additive models were applied to define a suite of environmental, bathymetric and biotic factors that best describe common and bottlenose dolphin spatial distribution, during early (May, June, July) and late (August, September) summer.
3. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to integrate sightings data with environmental characteristics, distance from the coast and sardine probability of presence. These variables were considered as good proxies for defining species‐suitable habitat within the study area's coastal environment.
4. The final selected models were used to produce annual probability maps of the presence of the species in the entire Greek Seas, as a measure of habitat suitability. Based on the mean probability and standard deviation maps for the study period GIS techniques were subsequently used to determine the persistent (areas with high mean and low variation) and occasional (high mean and high variation) habitat of each species.
5. Results showed that there was a high probability of common dolphin presence in areas with a high probability of sardine presence. For bottlenose dolphin, higher probability of the presence of species occurred in areas closer to the shore, with a high probability of sardine presence and with high concentrations of chlorophyll‐a.
6. In both seasons, the North Aegean Sea and the Inner Ionian Sea Archipelago were indicated as the most suitable areas for common dolphin distribution. Persistent habitat areas of the bottlenose dolphin included enclosed seas, continental shelf waters, and waters surrounding islands. The indicated suitable areas are discussed along with deficiencies of the models and future implications for conservation.

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finding suitable growth models for turbot (Scophthalmus maximus L.) in aquaculture 1 (length application)

Growth data of two different commercial turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) strains reared in recirculating aquaculture systems were analysed with the aim to determine the most suitable model for turbot. To assess the model performance three different criteria were used: (1) The mean percentage deviation between the estimated length and actual length; (2) the residual standard error with corresponding degrees of freedom and (3) the Akaike information criterion. The analyses were carried out for each strain separately, for sexes within strains and for a pooled data set containing both strains and sexes. We tested a pre‐selection of six models, containing three to four parameters. Models were of monomolecular shape or sigmoid shape with a flexible point of inflection including the special case of monomolecular shape in defined cases of their parameters. The 4‐parametric Schnute model achieved best fit in 62% of all cases and criteria tested, followed by the also 4‐parametric generalized Michaelis–Menten equation in 48% and the 4‐parametric Janoschek model (38%). The von Bertalanffy growth function achieved only 29%, Brody 24% and a new flexible function 19% best fit. In a 1–1000 day growth‐simulation sigmoid shaped curves were produced by the Schnute model in 71% of cases. The Janoschek and the Michaelis–Menten model each produced sigmoid curves in 57% of all cases. This indicates that a flexible 4‐parametric function reflects the growth curve of turbot the best and that this curve is rather sigmoid than monomolecular shaped.     

互联网订单模式与食用菌产业融合的可行性发展

系统阐述了互联网订单生产模式在我国食用菌产业中实施的可行性。首先从我国目前食用菌产业的低成本生产现状分析了订单生产的战略可行性;其次从食用菌产业的国际环境和互联网科技的发展方面分析了发展订单式生产的有利因素,提出了创新食用菌产业订单模式的一些建议。指出了巩固订单模式实践效果应注意的若干问题。对促进我国食用菌产业创新发展模式提供了借鉴。     

Geographic Information System‐Based Analysis of the Spatial and Spatio‐Temporal Distribution of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Golestan Province,North‐East of Iran

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), a vector‐borne disease, poses serious psychological as well as social and economic burden to many rural areas of Iran. The main objectives of this study were to analyse yearly spatial distribution and the possible spatial and spatio‐temporal clusters of the disease to better understand spatio‐temporal epidemiological aspects of ZCL in rural areas of an endemic province, located in north‐east of Iran. Cross‐sectional survey was performed on 2983 recorded cases during the period of 2010–2012 at village level throughout the study area. Global clustering methods including the average nearest‐neighbour distance, Moran's I, general G indices and Ripley's K‐function were applied to investigate the annual spatial distribution of the existing point patterns. Presence of spatial and spatio‐temporal clusters was investigated using the spatial and space–time scan statistics. For each year, semivariogram analysis and all global clustering methods indicated meaningful persistent spatial autocorrelation and highly clustered distribution of ZCL, respectively. Eight significant spatial clusters, mainly located in north and northeast of the province, and one space–time cluster, observed in northern part of the province and during the period of September 2010–November 2010, were detected. Comparison of the location of ZCL clusters with environmental conditions of the study area showed that 97.8% of cases in clusters were located at low altitudes below 725 m above sea level with predominantly arid and semi‐arid climates and poor socio‐economic conditions. The identified clusters highlight high‐risk areas requiring special plans and resources for more close monitoring and control of the disease.     

HJ-1CCD与Landsat-8OLI在呼伦贝尔草原区FPAR反演中的比较分析

光合有效辐射吸收比率(Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation,FPAR)是主要的植物生理参数之一。本研究根据地面实测数据和由HJ-1CCD(Charge-coupled Device,CCD)及Landsat-8OLI(Operational Land Imager,OLI)影像提取的NDVI,分别建立研究区FPAR估算模型,对比分析和评价了CCD和OLI数据在反演研究区FPAR的精度。结果表明,基于CCD和OLI数据计算的NDVI与实测FPAR之间均呈现良好的正相关关系;针对每个基本采样单元(Elementary Sampling Units,ESU),两种数据反演的FPAR具有显著的一致性,且反演值相差甚少;剔除影像中受到云和云影影响的区域,整个研究区利用CCD与OLI数据反演的FPAR相关性好、分布趋势一致,且反演值均值差很小。本研究结果对该区域FPAR的进一步研究具有借鉴和指导意义,在以后的研究中可以尝试使用HJ-1CCD数据。     

Spatial segregation of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) by size in the eastern Pacific Ocean

Striped marlin (Kajikia audax) is an epipelagic fish distributed in oceanic and coastal waters of the Pacific Ocean. This species is usually found in warm and coastal waters with high primary productivity. The main goal of this study was to describe the spatial segregation of striped marlin by average Eye‐Fork length (EFL) in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) and its relationship with environmental variables using EFL data obtained from tuna purse‐seining and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). The model suggested that larger individuals of striped marlin were more likely to be found in waters with high Chlorophyll‐a concentration (>2 mg/m³) and with temperatures lower than 25°C, within a region known as the “cold tongue” and the Humboldt current system, while smaller individuals were more likely to be found in warmer and low productive areas within a region known as the “warm pool of the EPO.” We observed that set type caused a large variation on average EFL of striped marlin; larger fish were captured in sets associated with floating objects (natural and manmade), while smaller fish were captured in sets associated with dolphins. Despite this, our findings suggest that striped marlin has a latitudinal gradient in average EFL; larger individuals occurred predominantly south of 10°N, while smaller ones occurred predominantly in coastal waters between 10°N and 20°N, thus demonstrating a spatial segregation of the species affected by its maturity stage.