美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。

Evaluation method for basic failure probability of oil and gas pipeline based on accident statistics in the United States and enlightenments

To fully utilize the historical failure data of oil and gas pipelines and minimize the subjectivity in evaluation of failure probability,the concept and evaluation method of basic failure probability of oil and gas pipelines were proposed.The mileage,accident and failure factor data of oil and gas pipelines in the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration(PHMSA)database in the United States were comprehensively analyzed,and the basic failure probability of oil and gas pipelines was evaluated based on accident statistics.The results show that the basic failure probabilities of ordinary accidents of hazardous liquid pipelines,gas gathering and transportation pipelines and gas distribution pipelines in the United States are 1.29 times/(10^3 km·a),2.17 times/(10^4 km·a)and 4.08 times/(10^5 km·a),respectively,Those of larger accidents are 4.58 times/(10^3 km·a),1.41 times/(10^3 km·a)and 2.38 times/(10^3 km·a),respectively,and those of serious accidents are 9.09 times/(10^6 km·a),9.79 times/(10^6 km·a)and 1.11 times/(10^5 km·a),respectively.American basic failure probabilities could be used as the baseline for evaluating the failure probability of oil and gas pipelines or as the basis for risk acceptance criteria.However,they can't be directly applied to the pipeline risk assessment in China and should be amended to establish failure database for chinese pipelines.