中国上市公司多元化经营绩效的实证分析

通过随机抽样,计算我国57家上市公司1998年-2002年的平均盈利指标和风险指标,根据各公司多元化熵值的大小对样本总体进行分组,分析多元化程度对企业绩效的影响.研究发现1.多元化程度越高,公司的平均净资产收益率越高;2.多元化经营降低了公司收益率的波动水平;3.资产规模越小的公司越倾向于选择多元化经营.     

汽车运材费用的多因素分析

本文应用多元统计分析方法对汽车运材费用进行分析，影响运材费用的主要因素按其对单位成本影响的贡献大小排序，依次是单位养路费、单位燃润费、单位保修费和单位大修费．     

暴发高致病禽流感疫区鸟类禽流感的血清学调查

本研究应用血凝抑制试验(H I),2004年初H 5亚型禽流感在中国内地发生前后,于湖北、广西二疫区市县的生态系中,自健康的鹰、鸽子、野鸭和鹌鹑中采集了54份血清,对其进行了血清学检测,并将获得的血清学检测数据进行了统计学分析。分析结果显示,在总共采集的54份血清样品中,抗H 6亚型禽流感病毒(H 6)抗体、抗H 9亚型禽流感病毒(H 9)抗体、抗H 5亚型禽流感病毒(H 5)抗体阳性率分别为64.8%、75.9%、29.6%。推断,这一时期,H 6亚型禽流感病毒(H 6)、H 9亚型禽流感病毒(H 9)和H 5亚型禽流感病毒(H 5)共循环于该生态系中,其中H 9、H 6亚型禽流感病毒长期、稳定循环于该生态系中,为该生态系禽流感主要流行血清型。血凝抑制试验检测结果发现,H 5亚型禽流感病毒抗体滴度较低,最高仅为640×,其阳性率为29.6%,推断其可能为新近传入的病毒或新近重组变异出现的新病毒,可能为与该次禽流感暴发相关的新病毒,这一推断还有待于通过对病毒基因序列的分析而做进一步验证。     

Serum 5'nucleotidase activity in rats: a method for automated analysis and criteria for interpretation

A manual kit for determining serum 5'nucleotidase (5'NT, EC 3.1.3.5) activity was adapted for use with rat samples on a large discrete clinical chemistry analyzer. The precision of the method was good (within-run C.V. = 2.14%; between-run C.V. = 5.5%). A comparison of the new automated method with a manual and semi-automated method gave regression statistics of y = 1.18X -3.66 (Sy. x = 4.54), and y = 0.733X + 1.97 (Sy. x = 1.69), respectively. Temperature conversion factors provided by the kit manufacturer for human samples were determined to be inaccurate for converting results from rat samples. Analysis of components contributing to normal variation in rat serum 5'NT activity showed age and sex to be major factors. Increased serum 5'NT activity was observed in female rats when compared to male rats beginning at about 5 to 6 weeks of age. An analysis of variance of serum 5'NT, alkaline phosphatase, and GGT activities observed over a 9-week period in normal rats suggests several advantages for 5'NT as a predictor of biliary lesions in rats.     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

自然资源视角下的林地界定标准探究 ——以上海市某区为例

系统梳理国内外关于林地界定的标准,重点分析我国目前已发布的林地界定标准《林地分类》(LY/T1812-2009)和《土地利用现状分类》(GB/T21010-2017)的差异。以上海市某区为例,具体分析林地界定差异引起的数据统计及相关管理、审批等方面的问题,结合自然资源统一管控趋势,提出增加复合用地分类,统一具体认定口径,建立分类对照表,明确林地界定的状态等林地界定标准修订及相关管理完善建议。     

Effect of cultivation time on soil heavy metal accumulation and bioavailability in Phyllostachys praecox stands

Phyllostachys praecox is a bamboo species cultivated for edible shoots under intensive management. However, the potential pollution risk of heavy metals in bamboo soils is not clear under the intensive management for a long term. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of cultivation time on soil heavy metal accumulation and bioavailability in bamboo stands subjected to intensive management. Soil samples were collected from a chronosequence of bamboo stands which had been cultivated for 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, and 10 years in Lin''an, Zhejiang Province of China. Eight heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni, Cr, Cd, As, and Hg) present in the soil were selected, and their potential pollution risk was evaluated by chemical speciation analysis. Possible heavy metal sources were explored using multivariate and cluster analysis. Our results showed that Zn, Cu, Hg, and Cd contents in the soil increased with the cultivation time, while Ni, Cr, Pb, and As levels were similar among all stands. Furthermore, the bioavailabilities of all analyzed heavy metals increased with the cultivation time. Multivariate and cluster analysis showed that sources of Ni, Cr, Pb, and As were likely lithogenic in origin, whereas input of Zn, Cu, Hg, and Cd was mainly due to cultivation practices. Current bamboo management strategies raised the potential risks of heavy metal pollution in bamboo shoots in the long term. Soil acidification in P. praecox stands induced by intensive cultivation should be controlled since it stimulated and improved the bioavailability of heavy metals. Appropriate management strategies should thus be adopted to ensure safe and sustainable production of bamboo shoots.     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

An Expert Knowledge-acquisition Method on Line of Automatic Excluding Errors

Aimed at soving the problem existing in the knowledge-acquisition directing-operation expert systems, a new method is proposed to acquire knowledge of expert-operation, excluding errors existed in examples and reinforce the accuracy of examples,the goal of knowledge acquisition can be achieved, the method presented in this paper solves the problem of self-enhancement of expert knowledge on line efficiently.     

Application of Multivariate Statistics in Early-warning of Corporation Financial Crisis

This paper is focused on early warning of corporation financial crisis for the China's household electric appliance manufacturers in stock market. Firstly, using company's open-disclosed annual statements as data resource, the financial indexes system is constructed. Secondary, adopting the multivariable statistical analysis method, such as cluster, discriminate and principle component analysis, the multivariate models for the empirical study on early warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software are set up. The corporation might discover the financial affairs crisis that shall probably arise beforehand by using the financial affairs crisis early warning system. This study and analysis may serve as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.