京津冀MODIS长时序增强型植被指数拟合重建方法适用性研究

长时间序列植被指数拟合重建的结果可为植被变化动态监测及物候信息提取、生物量信息提取、农作物产量预测及面积估算、生态质量评价及生态系统碳循环研究等提供更精准、更可靠的数据来源,从而有效反映生态环境质量。MODIS EVI数据虽经过最大值合成(MVC)处理,但仍存在云、冰雪、气溶胶等噪声。该文基于Timesat软件中非对称高斯函数拟合法(AG)、双Logistic函数拟合法(DL)、SG滤波法(SG)3种方法对京津冀2001—2015年MODIS EVI时间序列数据进行拟合重建,从时间序列、空间格局两个维度,并结合数理统计方法,对比分析了不同方法的拟合效果。结果表明:噪声比与拟合重建的方法无明显相关关系。在去噪效果和保真性、拟合优度等方面,AG拟合和DL拟合整体无明显差异,在部分像元点上AG拟合表现出更好的重建效果。SG方法可以更有效的保留原始植被特征。3种方法重建后的效果表现出与地类空间分布相关的差异性。对于京津冀地区长时序数据,AG拟合在人类扰动较小的草地、森林和灌木地区域表现出更好的重建效果,SG方法在人类活动干扰更强的耕地区域重建效果更优。     

SCE标定结合EnKF同化遥感和WOFOST模型模拟冬小麦时序LAI

WOFOST(world food studies)模型可用于模拟冬小麦全生育期内的时序叶面积指数(leaf area index, LAI),各器官生物量以及最终产量,对冬小麦的长势监测与产量预估有着重要意义。但将WOFOST模型用于中国具体区域的冬小麦生长模拟时,存在着参数定标困难、模拟结果不够准确等严重问题。目前对该模型的定标大多依靠研究者的经验进行,虽已总结出了一套从标定到模拟应用的研究方法,但在区域模拟时仍然存在很多问题。为此,该文以较易获取的LAI为参考指标,结合潜在生长水平模式下的WOFOST模型在衡水地区的应用,提出了一种"区域优化标定,像元同化修正"的研究方法:首先在区域尺度上对WOFOST模型进行优化标定,利用扩展傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验法(extend fourier amplitude sensitivity test, EFAST)分析模型各个参数的敏感性,在此基础上选择了可以迅速找到全局最优解的SCE(shuffled complex evolution)算法对总敏感度最高的5个参数进行优化,并将优化前后的时序LAI曲线进行对比;其次运用第一步确定的模型最优参数,在对区域内每个像元进行模拟时,结合Sentinel-2卫星数据反演所得的各个像元LAI,利用集合卡尔曼滤波(ensemble kalman filter, EnKF)在像元尺度上对LAI进行同化修正,并结合采样点的2次实测LAI数据对同化所得结果进行验证。试验发现,优化标定后的WOFOST模型模拟所得LAI曲线更接近所给的LAI真值,在此基础上结合数据同化模拟得出的衡水地区每个像元LAI的R2达到0.87,RMSE仅为0.62。因此,与原来只能通过经验进行定标的方法相比,该方法有效地解决了WOFOST模型在具体应用中亟待解决的复杂标定问题,并且结合同化修正有效地提高了模型在各个像元的模拟精度,R2由0.70～0.83提升至了0.87,RMSE由0.89～1.36降低至了0.62。同时该文也提供了从模型标定到具体模拟整个过程中各个环节的思路与方法,有利于促进WOFOST模型在区域尺度上的应用。     

我国西北地区东部时间序列NDVI数据集重建方法比较研究

高质量、长时序归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据集不仅是连续监测陆地表面特征的基础,也是研究气候与陆地生态系统变化的重要参数。本研究以生态环境较为脆弱的西北地区东部为例,借助多种时间序列重建方法对LTDR NDVI数据集中的噪声进行拟合重建,并结合农业气象资料和高质量NDVI数据,对不同重建方法的拟合结果开展适用性评价分析,结果表明,1)下垫面类型是影响重建方法拟合效果的重要因素。根据不同植被类型或作物生长特点,每种重建方法对其噪声消除能力有所不同;2)在年均NDVI较高(NDVI≥0.3),且NDVI曲线具有明显季节变化的草地、林地以及牧草等作物种植区域内,经过D-L拟合重建的NDVI具有较高的保真能力和适应性;3)在年均NDVI较低(NDVI<0.3),且植被季节生长变化不明显或NDVI曲线不呈季节对称性变化的稀疏植被区,以及以冬小麦为典型作物种植的区域内,经过S-G滤波重建的NDVI数据表现出相对较好的保真能力和适应性。     

基于粗糙熵的时序数据属性约简及规则提取研究

分析了近似质量在提取非确定性规则方面的不足，并基于粗糙熵的预测成功度概念，结合时序数据特点，提出一种属性约简及规则提取策略．该策略在对时序数据进行属性约简时，采用粗糙熵与时间距离相结合的方法，使得最终得到的约简在时序方面是较优的,最后使用UCI数据库进行仿真实验，效果良好．该策略在工程领域处理时序数据方面有一定的应用价值．     

Spatial and non-spatial risk factors associated with cage-level distribution of infectious salmon anaemia at three Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., farms in Maine, USA

The distribution of infectious salmon anaemia (ISA) was examined among 80 cages from three Atlantic salmon grow-out farms in Maine, USA that were stocked with smolts from a single hatchery. Cage-level disease was broadly defined as one or more moribund fish testing positive for infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) by RT-PCR and a second confirmatory test (IFAT, culture or genotype sequence). Spatio-temporal and cage-level risks were explored using logistic regression and survival analysis. Non-spatial risk factors associated with ISA, or shortened survival time to disease, included increased predation, trucking company choice for smolt transfers, a finely-sedimented benthic substrate, and smaller average size of smolts at stocking. Univariable analysis identified the time-dependent spatial factor 'adjacency to newly infected cages' to be predictive of new infection in neighbouring cages 11-12 weeks later. However, none of the spatial factors, or their lags retained relevance in multiple-variable models. The results suggest a diffuse distribution of virus exposure throughout infected sites, with host-susceptibility factors probably influencing disease manifestation in individual cages. The narrow focus of the current study may limit application of the findings to other sites and year-classes. However, these data support the relevance of husbandry efforts to optimize fish health in regions affected by ISAV.     

基于粒子滤波的LAI时间序列重构算法设计与实现

遥感观测的叶面积指数（LAI）时间序列数据广泛应用于作物长势监测,但数据受大气条件等影响,存在数值偏低和时间序列数据缺失等问题。为此,本文设计了一种基于重采样粒子滤波的LAI时间序列重构算法,以LAI为同化变量,在WOFOST模型本地化的基础上,实现了遥感LAI数据和WOFOST模型模拟的LAI数据的同化,以重构LAI时间序列。算法将WOFOST作物模型简化为LAI状态随时间演变的非线性计算方程,作为重采样粒子滤波的状态转移方程;将地面实测LAI数据和遥感LAI数据建立的线性方程,作为重采样粒子滤波的观测方程,建立LAI时间序列数据同化模型。以带权重粒子表示LAI时间序列状态后验分布,并在循环迭代中对粒子重采样,以此实现单点和区域LAI时间序列重构。应用该算法,对河北省冬麦区2010年LAI时间序列进行重构,结果表明,基于重采样粒子滤波的LAI时间序列重构算法在单点和区域上得到的LAI值明显更接近冬小麦实际生长状况,且算法能够弥补遥感LAI时序数据的缺失,为进一步的作物长势监测提供基础支撑。     

梅园朝鲜球坚蚧的分布格局及时序动态

应用5种聚集度指标和Iwao法、Taylor幂法则,分别考查了2003年3—9月份朝鲜球坚蚧(Didesmococcus koreanus Broch)在梅树上的分布型及其变化动态。结果显示:该蚧在梅树不同方位和冠层的枝条上以及所有密度下均呈聚集分布,分布基本成分为个体群,且个体间相互吸引。该虫以上层和南向树冠的聚集度最高,下层和北向树冠的聚集度最低,这种差异与该蚧的生物学特性和环境的异质性有关。不论蚧体在上、中或下层树冠,都明显呈现出前期高聚块,4月下旬后由于黑缘红瓢虫天敌的捕食作用使其聚集强度呈逐渐降低的趋势。在空间分布格局研究的基础上,提出了理论抽样数公式,给出了不同密度和误差要求条件下的最适抽样数及一定防治指标下的序贯抽样模型。     

基于GEE的广西北部湾沿海水产养殖池塘遥感提取

沿海水产养殖池塘带来经济效益的同时,也会引起诸多环境问题,了解其空间分布对于海岸带的科学管理和渔业可持续发展具有重要意义。广西北部湾海岸带地形错综复杂,养殖池塘沿岸线散乱分布,导致传统遥感识别方法难以实现高精度提取。针对此问题,该研究提出一种基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）平台和全年Sentinel-1和Sentinel-2时序遥感数据的水产养殖池塘识别方法,结合多阈值分割和面向对象分类提取2019年广西北部湾海岸带的水产养殖池塘。结果表明：1）广西北部湾海岸带养殖池塘面积总计199.3 km2,遍布整个沿岸地区;识别结果总体精度达到0.921,Kappa系数为0.842;2）选取4个典型区域,对比该研究方法提取结果与Google高清影像目视解译结果,在规模化集聚型养殖区域中,识别结果占目视解译的面积比例达到90%以上,在排布密集的小型池塘区域面积占比也能达到80%以上;3）以时序遥感数据作为分类特征值,能够有效排除废弃池塘、水稻田和季节性水域。该方法在大范围复杂环境中仍具有良好性能,显著提高了水产养殖池塘遥感识别的精度,能够为海岸带生态环境的智能监控、养殖区域空间优化提供技术支持。     

Spawning periodicity and synchrony of bluehead chub (Nocomis leptocephalus) and a nest associate,yellowfin shiner (Notropis lutipinnis), across local streams

We studied daily spawning periodicity of a nest-building species, bluehead chub (Nocomis leptocephalus), and a nest associate, yellowfin shiner (Notropis lutipinnis), in three streams in the upper Piedmont region of South Carolina, USA. Field observations were conducted for 89 consecutive days in 2016 by recording the number of active nests and environmental variables. A total of 71 nests were located across study streams; bluhead chub and yellowfin shiner spawned between April and June. Spawning was observed periodically at intervals of 4–6 days within the same stream and across different streams, indicating broad-scale influences of the same environmental factors leading to synchrony. A generalized linear auto-regressive and moving average model showed that the periodic spawning pattern was likely caused by changes in water temperature, with effects of water level varying by stream. Specifically, spawning was triggered by a short-term (2-day) increase in water temperature and was observed under stable flow conditions (i.e. a lack of precipitation). This study showed that spawning periodicity of bluehead chub and yellowfin shiner tracked daily variation in in-stream conditions, indicating that their reproduction might be affected by anthropogenic disturbances that affect the rate of change in thermal and flow regimes at the fine temporal scale (e.g. hydroelectric dams and impervious cover).     

Fusing multi-source data to map spatio-temporal dynamics of winter rape on the Jianghan Plain and Dongting Lake Plain,China

Mapping crop distribution with remote sensing data is of great importance for agricultural production, food security and agricultural sustainability. Winter rape is an important oil crop, which plays an important role in the cooking oil market of China. The Jianghan Plain and Dongting Lake Plain(JPDLP) are major agricultural production areas in China. Essential changes in winter rape distribution have taken place in this area during the 21 st century. However, the pattern of these changes remains unknown. In this study, the spatial and temporal dynamics of winter rape from 2000 to 2017 on the JPDLP were analyzed. An artificial neural network(ANN)-based classification method was proposed to map fractional winter rape distribution by fusing moderate resolution imaging spectrometer(MODIS) data and high-resolution imagery. The results are as follows:(1) The total winter rape acreages on the JPDLP dropped significantly, especially on the Jianghan Plain with a decline of about 45% during 2000 and 2017.(2) The winter rape abundance keeps changing with about 20–30% croplands changing their abundance drastically in every two consecutive observation years.(3) The winter rape has obvious regional differentiation for the trend of its change at the county level, and the decreasing trend was observed more strongly in the traditionally dominant agricultural counties.