Projections of temperature extremes based on preferred CMIP5 models:a case study in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China

The extreme temperature has more outstanding impact on ecology and water resources in arid regions than the average temperature. Using the downscaled daily temperature data from 21 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP) models of NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP) and the observation data, this paper analyzed the changes in temporal and spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes, i.e., the maximum temperature(Tmax) and minimum temperature(Tmin), in the Kaidu-Kongqi River basin in Northwest China over the period 2020–2050 based on the evaluation of preferred Multi-Model Ensemble(MME). Results showed that the Partial Least Square ensemble mean participated by Preferred Models(PM-PLS) was better representing the temporal change and spatial distribution of temperature extremes during 1961–2005 and was chosen to project the future change. In 2020–2050, the increasing rate of Tmax(Tmin) under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 will be 2.0(1.6) times that under RCP4.5, and that of Tmin will be larger than that of Tmax under each corresponding RCP. Tmin will keep contributing more to global warming than Tmax. The spatial distribution characteristics of Tmax and Tmin under the two RCPs will overall the same; but compared to the baseline period(1986–2005), the increments of Tmax and Tmin in plain area will be larger than those in mountainous area. With the emission concentration increased, however, the response of Tmax in mountainous area will be more sensitive than that in plain area, and that of Tmin will be equivalently sensitive in mountainous area and plain area. The impacts induced by Tmin will be universal and farreaching. Results of spatiotemporal variation of temperature extremes indicate that large increases in the magnitude of warming in the basin may occur in the future. The projections can provide the scientific basis for water and land plan management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the inland river basin.     

黑河流域中游荒漠区沙尘暴、扬沙和浮尘监测及其与气候因子的关系

[目的] 分析黑河流域中游荒漠区沙尘暴、扬沙以及浮尘频次和时长的月变化和年变化，并分析其与主要气候因子的关系，为区域沙尘天气的早期预警和荒漠区的经营和管理提供依据。[方法] 利用黑河流域红沙窝荒漠化综合防治试验站的2010—2019年的沙尘天气监测数据和气象数据进行分析。[结果] 沙尘频次和时长主要集中在春季，其次是冬季，春冬两季的频次和时长各占全年的82.3%和79.4%。10 a间沙尘暴和扬沙频次总体变化趋势逐渐减少，而浮尘频次总体变化趋势逐年增加；沙尘时长总体变化趋势逐年增加。沙尘频次月变化与土壤湿度（10 cm）和大气湿度之间呈极显著负相关（p<0.01），与风速之间呈极显著正相关（p<0.01）。扬沙年际发生频次与土壤温度（5 cm）之间呈显著负相关（p<0.05），与大气温度之间呈极显著负相关（p<0.01）。[结论] 近10 a来，黑河流域中游荒漠区的沙尘天气主要发生在春季和冬季，破坏性较大的沙尘暴和扬沙逐年减少，而浮尘逐年增加。沙尘频次的月变化主要影响因素是浅层土壤湿度、大气湿度和风速。春季的浅层土壤湿度影响了沙尘暴和扬沙年际频次变化，浅层土壤温度影响了浮尘年际频次变化；冬季的浅层土壤温湿度和降水量影响了沙尘暴的年际频次变化，浅层土壤温度和大气温度影响了扬沙的年际频次变化。     

基于"量-质-域-流"四维指标体系的水资源荷载状况评价——以黑河流域三地市为例

随着社会经济用水不断增加，水资源供需矛盾加剧，水资源系统出现荷载不均衡现象，制约了区域发展，危及生态环境良性循环。本文从水资源系统的负荷需求和承载能力出发，基于“量、质、域、流”四个维度构建水资源荷载均衡评价指标体系，采用指标规范化的正态云模型，评价2015年黑河流域张掖市、酒泉市、阿拉善盟水资源配置方案的荷载均衡状况，并依据负荷与承载能力评分二维坐标，分出低负荷-高承载能力、低负荷-低承载能力、高负荷-高承载能力和高负荷-低承载能力四个分区。评价结果表明：2015年三地水资源荷载状况均为Ⅳ级，张掖市综合评分为3.697，酒泉市为3.657，阿拉善盟为3.901，三地均处于高负荷-低承载能力区域；三地在水质维度上处于低负荷-高承载能力区间，水质维度评分均处于Ⅱ级，酒泉市水质评分优于张掖市，张掖市水质评分优于阿拉善盟；在水量、水域、水流维度上均处于高负荷-低承载能力区间，水量方面三地处于Ⅳ级，张掖市优于酒泉市，酒泉市优于阿拉善盟；水域方面张掖和阿拉善盟评分均处于Ⅴ级，酒泉评分处于Ⅳ级；水流方面三地均处于Ⅴ级。需要采取调控手段在水量、水域、水流方面上进行“增强承载”和“卸荷”。     

千岛湖森林康养基地发展路径探析 ——基于千岛湖龙川湾的调查研究

国家相关管理部门联合提出按照“环境优良、服务优质、管理完善、特色鲜明、效益明显”的要求建设一批国家森林康养基地。以浙江千岛湖龙川湾为例,分析其森林资源、地理区位、产业链、发展规模、社会合作、管理保障、三大效益等方面建设森林康养基地的优势,整合提升游憩观赏、研学文化、垂钓休闲、扶犁耕地、康养保健、疗养康复、健身拓展区域空间布局与发展举措,从康养体验、休闲体验、运动健身等方面增强千岛湖龙川湾森林康养基地功能,推进森林康养产业发展。     

洞庭湖烂泥湖水系洪涝灾害风险评估与应对措施

近年来,洪涝灾害是全球发生频繁、危害最严重的气象灾害之一,国内不少学者开始对洪涝灾害进行研究,目前对于洞庭湖区洪涝灾害风险的研究较少。采用综合评价法建立模型对洞庭湖区烂泥湖水系洪涝灾害风险进行评估并提出应对策略,结果表明:新泉寺闸内水位和滞涝水面率的不同导致暴雨对烂泥湖水系的影响程度也不同。同时采取提高滞涝水面率和降低内湖水位,基本可以消除一般年份处于高风险的范围,对于减少低风险范围、增加无风险范围效果更为显著;对于平均风险度为高风险的年份,能够消除大部分高风险区域。     

汉阳地区五个湖泊沉水植物分布及富营养化现状

2011年7月—2012年4月对武汉市汉阳地区五个湖泊(后官湖,三角湖,南太子湖,墨水湖和龙阳湖)的水质及沉水植物进行了季节性调查,以了解湖泊富营养化现状及其对沉水植物的影响。结果显示:后官湖为中营养,而三角湖、南太子湖、墨水湖和龙阳湖为重度富营养,其中龙阳湖污染最重。共采集沉水植物7种,隶属于5科5属,主要种类为金鱼藻(Ceratophyllum demersum)、苦草(Vallisneria spiralis)和菹草(Potamogeton crispus)。沉水植物主要分布在后官湖沿岸带,其它四个湖泊中沉水植物已严重退化,仅在部分水域偶见。后官湖沉水植物盖度和生物量最大值出现在10月,分别为67.5%和5.58 kg/m~2,1月份较低,分别为29.3%和1.88 kg/m~2,优势种存在明显的季节更替。结果表明,汉阳地区湖泊沉水植物退化与富营养化引起的水下光照下降和高密度的水产养殖有关。     

Pansteatitis in polluted Olifants River impoundments: nutritional perspectives on fish in a eutrophic lake,Lake Loskop,South Africa

This study compares the aetiology of pansteatitis in Lake Loskop, relative to two other impoundments along the Olifants River. Macroscopic and microscopic pathology, age determination and analysis of stomach content, fatty acids and stable isotopes explain the high prevalence of pansteatitis in Oreochromis mossambicus (Peters) and several other species in Lake Loskop. All the dietary indicator comparisons between pansteatitis‐affected and healthy fish fail to support a systemic cause. Pansteatitis in Lake Loskop was linked to size and weight of O. mossambicus, but not to ontogenic age. Fish in Lake Loskop showed abnormally high omega‐3 to omega‐6 fatty acid ratios normally only found in marine fish with no significant difference in degree of assimilation of these fatty acids between pansteatitis‐affected and healthy fish. This explains the vulnerability to, but not the occurrence of, pansteatitis. As a cause for the pansteatitis, these results point towards sporadic vitamin E‐depleting trigger events, known sporadic fish die‐off occurrences that provide surviving fish with a rich source of rancid fats on which to scavenge. The mechanism ties pansteatitis to eutrophication and trophic cascade effects, the intrinsic drivers of the disease and suggests an adaptive management strategy that might be applied by relevant conservation authorities.     

太白湖主要经济鱼类寄生蠕虫种类调查

2015年12月,采用形态学方法对长江中游的太白湖鱼类鳃和肠道寄生蠕虫进行了初步调查和种类鉴定。结果显示:在调查的15种131尾鱼中,共分离鉴定了36种寄生蠕虫,其中单殖吸虫30种,复殖吸虫1种,绦虫5种;对其中6种单殖吸虫的形态特征进行了重新描述。大部分鱼类的鳃部都感染单殖吸虫,只有4种鱼类的肠道感染寄生蠕虫,较低的体内寄生蠕虫多样性表明该湖泊的生态环境可能受到较严重的干扰。