中国茶叶出口的影响因素与贸易效率 ——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

基于时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,运用37个代表性国家和地区2001—2017年面板数据,实证分析了中国茶叶出口的影响因素与贸易效率。结果显示,我国茶叶出口贸易效率呈现随时间递增的趋势,但是总体上我国茶叶出口效率处于较低水平,且呈现区域不平衡,对发达经济体的出口贸易效率相对较高,与“一带一路”沿线国家的茶叶贸易效率比较低;我国茶叶出口效率无法完全实现主要是由于技术效率损失;国内供给增加、进口市场容量扩大以及贸易成本降低均对茶叶贸易效率有促进作用;进口市场营商环境改善一定程度上能够抵消贸易非效率的影响,提升我国茶叶出口效率;自由贸易协定对于我国茶叶出口尚未发挥作用。     

Prematurity and Dysmaturity Are Associated With Reduced Height and Shorter Distal Limb Length in Horses

The long-term effects of gestational immaturity in the premature (defined as < 320 days gestation) and dysmature (normal term but showing some signs of prematurity) foal have not been thoroughly investigated. Studies have reported that a high percentage of gestationally immature foals with related orthopedic issues such as incomplete ossification may fail to fulfill their intended athletic purpose, particularly in Thoroughbred racing. In humans, premature birth is associated with shorter stature at maturity and variations in anatomical ratios, linked to alterations in metabolism and timing of physeal closure in the long bones. We hypothesized that gestational immaturity in horses might similarly be associated with reduced height and different anatomical ratios at maturity. In this preliminary study, the skeletal ratios of horses with a history of gestational immaturity, identified through veterinary and breeder records, were compared with those of unaffected, closely related horses (i.e., sire, dam, sibling). External measurements were taken from conformation photographs of cases (n = 19) and related horses (n = 28), and these were then combined into indices to evaluate and compare metric properties of conformation. A principal component analysis showed that the first two principal components account for 43.8% of the total conformational variation of the horses’ external features, separating horses with a rectangular conformation (body length > height at the withers), from those that are more square (body length = height at the withers). Varimax rotation of PC1 and analysis of different gestational groups showed a significant effect of gestational immaturity (P = .001), with the premature group being more affected than the dysmature group (P = .009, P = .012). Mean values for the four dominant indices showed that these groups have significantly lower distal limb to body length relationships than controls. The observed differences suggest that gestational immaturity may affect anatomical ratios at maturity, which, in combination with orthopedic issues arising from incomplete ossification, may have a further impact on long-term athletic potential.     

基于动态规划的电动拖拉机动力电源能量控制策略研究

针对纯电动拖拉机能量利用率低、续航里程不足的问题，提出了基于超级电容和蓄电池复合的纯电动拖拉机动力电源系统。通过分析纯电动拖拉机的作业工况特点以及功率需求，对动力电源系统进行了拓扑结构选型和参数匹配，并以动力电源能耗最低为优化目标，应用动态规划对纯电动拖拉机的动力电源系统进行能量控制策略优化，对动态规划结果以及工况特点进行分析，总结出基于规则的动力电源能量控制策略，利用Matlab/Simulink建模对控制策略进行仿真。结果表明基于动态规划的控制策略能量消耗比基于规则的控制策略能量消耗减少了18%，证明了基于动态规划的能量控制策略在节能降耗方面的有效性。     

农机作业服务能提升小麦生产技术效率吗?——基于2007—2017年省级面板数据的实证分析

为了解农机作业服务的作用效果，基于中国15 个小麦主产省(自治区)2007—2017年面板数据，采用随机前沿生产函数对小麦生产技术效率进行估算，并运用Tobit模型分析影响小麦生产技术效率的因素，研究农机服务对技术效率的影响并解释其作用机制。结果表明:2007—2017年小麦生产技术效率逐年递增，各省间存在显著差异，且起点低的省份技术效率增长速度明显快于领先的省份，区域间不平衡逐步缩小；农机投入对小麦技术效率有显著正向影响，主要通过替代效应、技术效应及分工效应等路径优化小麦生产要素配置，获得小麦技术效率的提高。基于研究结论，提出建议如下:规范农机服务市场，健全农机社会化服务体系；优化农机补偿机制，提升政策作用的时效性。     

Reducing crude protein variability and maximizing savings when formulating corn-soybean meal-based feeds

Crude protein in corn and soybean meal have been documented to vary, and such inherent variability can result in under- or over-feeding of CP when feeds are formulated, leading to reduced bird growth, added input costs, and increased environmental pollution. The purpose of this study was to compare 2 grain-handling techniques and 2 feed formulation methods (linear vs. stochastic programming) to reduce CP variability in finished feeds and determine resulting costs or savings. The 2 grain-handling techniques were placing all the random batches of each delivered ingredient in to (1) a single bin (1-bin method) or (2) segregating above- and below-average samples into 2 bins (2-bin method). A fast way of estimating the composition of the ingredients is now available (near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy). Microsoft Excel workbooks were constructed to solve broiler starter feed formulation problems. Formulating feeds by linear and stochastic models based on the 2-bin method reduced CP variability by at least 50% compared with the 1-bin method. Formula cost was reduced by ˜20 cents per ton (averages of August 2012 United States ingredient prices) when the 2-bin method was used with the linear model. Formulating feed with a margin of safety increased formula cost by $3.40 per ton. Stochastic feed formulation increased formula cost to meet the specified CP level in feed at any probability of success, and formula cost was reduced substantially with the 2-bin method (up to $6.47 per ton). The magnitude of savings and reduced feed variability suggested that, regardless of the costs associated with building extra bins, the 2-bin method can be economically efficient in the long run. Therefore, it could be possible to split the batches of feed ingredients at a feed mill into above- or below-average bins before feed formulation to reduce CP variability and to maximize savings.     

多线左旋螺纹的数控车削方法

文章以沈阳数控机床HT1625 FANUC 0I-TC系统为例,通过选用设置合理的切削参数和工艺,探讨多线左旋螺纹的数控车削加工。     

Modeling amino acid requirements of poultry

Poultry nutritionists should constantly evaluate their feeds and feeding programs in view of the changes that continue to be made to the potential growth rate of broilers and egg production in laying hens with the objective of providing the birds with the optimum economic level of nutrients at all times. In this review, the models generated at Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Jaboticabal, to estimate the optimum intake of amino acids (AA) for broilers and laying hens are presented. These models were used to estimate the variation in AA intake within a broiler population making use of coefficients of variation that represent the real situation in a commercial broiler operation. The range of AA intakes obtained was compared to some commonly applied feeding programs and recommendations. Based on results of our developed models and other feeding programs, feeds were formulated and growth was predicted using a growth simulation model (Avinesp). The prediction of growth showed that these models are reliable and useful tools to assist the nutritionists in decision making. In a study with laying hens, the Reading model (RM) was used to establish optimum economic AA intakes in a flock of hens. The input variables were the means and standard deviations of egg output and BW, and the relationship between the marginal cost of the AA and the marginal revenue for eggs. Based on this model, the optimum intake of each AA can vary with each of the variables considered. The models proposed in our study enable important decisions to be made regarding AA intakes to be used to obtain optimum economic performance from a population of broilers and laying hens.     

城市道路网信息管理系统研究

针对国内城市交通规划缺乏完整的道路信息资料 ,提出了如何利用功能完善的EMME/2交通规划软件结合中国的交通特性 ,进行城市路网信息资料的获取 ,并提出相应的数据库记录规定 ,据此研制开发了城市道路网信息管理系统。     

A Danish example of optimal thinning strategies in mixed-species forest under changing growth conditions caused by climate change

In this study, we analyse the economic and managerial aspects of option values related to having a mixed-species stand. As an example, we look at a mixed Norway spruce and Sitka spruce stand in Denmark when timing and intensity of future climate, and its effect on tree growth, are uncertain. Assuming that tree growth follows a discrete non-stationary stochastic process, we use dynamic programming to optimise the harvest distribution between the two species.

The results show that facing growth uncertainty caused by potential climate change implies an option value. Such uncertainty can be a potential advantage as long as we are able to maintain flexibility, keep decisions open, and there is a chance that climatic change will benefit some species. We analyse the model under different uncertainty assumptions and show that the larger changes we expect, the higher is the option value at any time during the stand’s life and, hence, we keep, on average, both tree species in the stand for a longer period of time. Moreover, we find that the adjustments may take place rather late in the rotation, a result brought about by the significance of the option value, which makes it optimal to maintain a reasonable stocking of both species.