基于VLF/LF三维闪电探测系统的贵州省全闪分布特征分析

为进一步加强云闪分布特征分析，增强对雷暴云内物理过程的认识，利用2015—2017 年VLF/LF三维闪电探测系统的数据资料对贵州省闪电特征进行空间和时间分布特征分析。结果表明：无论云闪还是地闪，均以负闪为主；闪电发生主要集中在夏季，冬季闪电最少，闪电月际分布主要为单峰型，仅冬季Z比率大于1；闪电主要发生时段为16 时至次日凌晨2 时，Z比率与全闪频数随时间的变化呈正相关，相关系数0.618；全省闪电密度整体呈西高东低趋势，年均闪电密度为5.07 次/(a ·km2)；云闪主要发生在高度2k~7 km，全年云闪高度呈下降趋势；雷电强度主要分布在5k~45 kA，平均陡度为7.34 kA/μs。本研究有利于对闪电特征开展更全面的探究和分析，同时对强对流天气监测和预警也有重要意义和价值。     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

Economic evaluation of forest drainage and fertilization in northern Ontario peatlands with an investment decision model

Drainage and fertilization of an existing peatland black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) stand and 24 possible methods of planting a clear-cut area near Cochrane, Ontario were evaluated by means of a recently developed forestry investment decision model, FIDME.Results indicate that, on the basis of the cost estimates used and assumptions made, drainage of the existing stand is the most economical treatment if it can reduce the rotation age by 30 years or more. Drainage combined with fertilization is the second best alternative if this treatment can reduce the rotation age by 40 years or more. Fertilization of the undrained site ranks a distant third, and then only if it reduces the rotation age by 10 years; otherwise, it will be uneconomical to apply.In the case of the clear-cut area, planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared but undrained site without weed control ranked first among the 24 alternatives considered; the same treatment, but with weed control included, ranked second. Planting containerized seedlings on a mechanically prepared but undrained site with weed control ranked third, followed by planting bare-root stock on a mechanically prepared and drained site with weed control. In contrast, planting containerized seedlings on an unprepared site and with no weed control ranked as the least cost-effective method considered.     

Neuroprotective effect of methanolic extracts of Allium cepa on ischemia and reperfusion-induced cerebral injury

The present study is designed to investigate the effect of methanolic extract of outer scales and edible portions of Allium cepa bulb on ischemia and reperfusion-induced cerebral injury. Global cerebral ischemia was induced by bilateral carotid artery occlusion for 10 min followed by reperfusion for 24 h. Pretreatment with methanolic extract of outer scales (100 mg/kg and 200 mg/kg) and edible portions (100 mg/kg and 200 mg/kg) of A. cepa bulb markedly reduced cerebral infarct size and attenuated impairment in short-term memory and motor coordination. The protective effect of methanolic extract of outer scales and edible portions of A. cepa bulb was accompanied by a marked decrease in mitochondrial TBARS.     

黄河兰州段多环芳烃生态风险的初步评价

以黄河兰州段11个不同采样点3种多环芳烃的临测浓度及其对6～38种水生生物的LC50为基础资料,分别应用商值法、概率密度函数重叠面积和联合概率曲线3种风险浮价方法对黄河兰州段苯并(a)芘、荧蒽、芘的生态风险进行了评价.结果表明:黄河兰州段3种PAHs残留具有一定的生态风险.其中低暴露风险条件下(受威胁生物不超过1%),...     

A robust set of black walnut microsatellites for parentage and clonal identification

We describe the development of a robust and powerful suite of 12 microsatellite marker loci for use in genetic investigations of black walnut and related species. These 12 loci were chosen from a set of 17 candidate loci used to genotype 222 trees sampled from a 38-year-old black walnut progeny test. The 222 genotypes represent a sampling from the broad geographic distribution of the species. Analysis of the samples using the 12 loci revealed an average expected heterozygosity of 0.83, a combined probability of identity of 3×10⁻¹⁹, and a combined probability of exclusion for paternity analysis of >0.999. The 222 genotyped trees from the progeny test comprised 39 open-pollinated families, 29 of which (having at least five sampled progeny) were used to estimate the outcrossing rate for the progeny trial. The same 29 families were used to construct a Neighbor-Joining dendrogram based upon allele sharing between individuals. The multilocus estimate of the outcrossing rate was 100% (standard error of zero), higher than the 90% level found in previous studies at the embryo stage, suggesting that both artificial and natural selection against selfs may have occurred over the 38-year lifespan of the progeny trial. In the Neighbor-Joining dendrogram, the majority of the putative siblings grouped together in 21 out of the 29 families, showing that the microsatellites were able to discern most of the family structure in the dataset. Our results indicate that errors were sometimes committed during the establishment of the progeny test. This set of microsatellite loci clearly provides a powerful tool for future applications in black walnut.     

Study on a soil erosion sampling survey in the Pan-Third Pole region based on higher-resolution images

Soil erosion is one of the most severe global environmental problems, and soil erosion surveys are the scientific basis for planning soil conservation and ecological development. To improve soil erosion sampling survey methods and accurately and rapidly estimate the actual rates of soil erosion, a Pan-Third Pole region was taken as an example to study a methodology of soil erosion sampling survey based on high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. The sampling units were designed using a stratified variable probability systematic sampling method. The spatiotemporal characteristics of soil erosion and conservation were taken into account, and finer-resolution freely available and accessible images in Google Earth were used. Through the visual interpretation of the free high-resolution remote sensing images, detailed information on land use and soil conservation measures was obtained. Then, combined with the regional soil erosion factor data products, such as rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), and slope length and steepness factor (LS), the soil loss rates of some sampling units were calculated. The results show that, based on these high-resolution remote sensing images, the land use and soil conservation measures of the sampling units can be quickly and accurately extracted. The interpretation accuracy in 4 typical cross sections was more than 80%, and sampling accuracy, described by histogram similarity in 11 large sampling sites, show that the landuse of sampling uints can represent the structural characteristics of regional land use. Based on the interpretation of data from the sample survey and the regional soil erosion factor data products, the calculation of the soil erosion rate can be completed quickly. The calculation results can reflect the actual conditions of soil erosion better than the potential soil erosion rates calculated by using the coarse-resolution remote sensing method.     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.