Combining deliberative and computer-based methods for multi-objective land-use planning

This paper reports the outcomes of a deliberative workshop comparing land-use plans proposed by land-manager or domain experts with those derived using a computer-based decision support system (DSS). The DSS integrates four main components, a geographic information system, land-use systems simulation models, impact assessments and land-use planning tools. The land-use planning tools draw on the other components to generate and evaluate alternative patterns of land use and management. Since the land-use planning tools are based on multi-objective genetic algorithms (mGAs) it is possible to generate a range of alternative plans that define the structure of the trade-off between the objectives. The workshop tasked the delegates with specifying land-use plans that achieved the best compromise between two objectives known to be non-commensurable and conflicting. The nature of the best compromise was dependent on their individual perspectives. The delegates proposed allocations both as individuals and in researcher-facilitated sub-groups. The mGA allocations were then compared with those derived by delegates and were found to be broadly similar in performance. Differences in the range of allocations considered feasible were explained by the hard and soft constraints on allocations agreed between the delegates and articulated within the workshop process. The hypothesis that part of the difference in performance between the mGA and delegate allocations was due to the delegates blocking together fields with the same land use for convenience of management was proved. The analysis of the group allocations revealed that the decision-making process had failed to improve on the individual allocations. From these results it was concluded that there was a potential role for mGA based land-use planning tools in researching into, and deliberating on, the possible impacts of policy or other factors affecting land-use systems. It was further concluded that the tools should not be used in isolation since there was the need for stake-holder inputs to adequately define the range of feasible and practical land-use plans.     

Assessing the options for upland livestock systems under CAP reform: Developing and applying a livestock systems model within whole-farm systems analysis

This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15–18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable.     

Crop root system response to irrigation

Summary In the field, root systems develop in response to both endogenous plant design and soil environment. Downward penetration of root systems results primarily from the growth of monocot axes or of dicot taproots; root proliferation at a given depth results from the growth of laterals at that depth. Root length densities generally decline exponentially with depth under well-watered conditions. Root growth rates are partially controlled by soil conditions. Under irrigation, the most critical soil properties for root growth are oxygen diffusion rate, water content and soil strength and all of these properties are inter-related. Under excess irrigation, especially in heavy soils, root growth may be limited by oxygen diffusion rate. Under limited irrigation, root growth may be limited by lack of water or high soil strength. When irrigation maintains wet surface soils, most of the root system is found in the upper part of the profile where the majority of the water is also taken up.     

Past, present and future criteria to breed crops for water-limited environments in West Africa

Asia's Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s has largely bypassed West Africa, and “modern” (high-yielding, input responsive) germplasm for staple crops has found comparatively little adoption, except for systems that are have good access to markets and sufficient water resources. It is unlikely, however, that breeding objectives conserving traditional crop characteristics as found in extensive systems would have been more successful. The authors identify systems caught in the agricultural transition from subsistence to intensified, market-oriented production as the most important target for crop improvement, and provide examples of new breeding objectives for cowpea, sorghum and upland rice. In each of these cases, breeders, with the help of physiologists, have developed innovative plant-type concepts that combine improved yield potential and input responsiveness with specific traditional crop characteristics that remain essential during the agricultural transition. In the case of cowpea, dual-purpose varieties were developed that produce a good grain yield due to an erect plant habit, then produce new leaves enabling a second harvest of green foliage. For upland rice systems that are limited by labour (mainly needed to control weeds that abound due to shortened fallow periods), a weed competitive plant type was developed from Oryza sativa × Oryza glaberrima crosses. Lastly, sorghum breeders who had previously deselected photoperiod sensitivity are now re-inserting sensitivity into plants having “modern” architecture, in order to allow for flexible sowing dates while maintaining an agro-ecologically optimal time of flowering near the end of the wet season. The ecophysiological basis of these plant types, their place in current and future cropping systems, as well as the problem of under-funding for their realisation, are discussed.     

Finding niches for whole-farm design models – contradictio in terminis?

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.     

Conversion to organic arable farming in The Netherlands: A dynamic linear programming analysis

Several studies show that organic farming is more profitable than conventional farming. However, in reality not many farmers convert to organic farming. Policy makers and farmers do not have clear insight into factors which hamper or stimulate the conversion to organic farming. The objective of this paper is to develop a dynamic linear programming model to analyse the effects of different limiting factors on the conversion process of farms over time. The model is developed for a typical arable farm in The Netherlands central clay region, and is based on two static liner programming models (conventional and organic). The objective of the model is to maximise the net present value over a 10-year planning horizon. The results of the analysis of a basic scenario show that conversion to organic farming is more profitable than staying conventional. In order to arrive at the actual profitable phase of organic farming, the farmer has to pass through the economically difficult 2-year conversion period. Sensitivity analysis shows that if depreciation is 25% higher than conventional fixed costs due to machinery made superfluous by conversion, conversion is less profitable than staying conventional. Also the availability of hired labour, which can be constrained in peak periods, has a strong effect on the cropping plan and the amount of area converted. Further analysis shows that a slight drop (2%) in organic prices lowers the labour income of the farmer and makes conversion less profitable than conventional farming. For farmers, a minimum labour income can be required to ‘survive’. The analysis shows that constraint on minimum labour income makes stepwise conversion the best way for farmers to overcome economic difficulties during conversion.     

Water use and yield of winter wheat in Northern India as affected by timing of last irrigation

Summary Standard local practice in Northern India is to continue irrigation of winter wheat crop almost up to harvest, based on the farmer's belief that this treatment increases grain weight and yield. The effect of an early cut-off of irrigation on the water use was studied in a three-year experiment on a deep, sandy-loam soil.Wheat, sown during the second or third week of November, received its first irrigation four weeks later. Subsequently treatments included irrigations of 7.5 cm water depth applied after 10 cm of cumulative pan evaporation minus rainfall had elapsed since the previous irrigation up till mid-April; irrigations of 7.5 cm up till mid-February and thereafter irrigation equal to 75 and 100% soil-water deficit in the 0–180 cm profile around March 10 with no later irrigation; and a similar treatment with one additional irrigation after making up the water deficit.Least irrigation water was used from the treatment in which 75% water deficit was restored around March 10 and no further irrigation was applied. This treatment increased the average extraction of profile water by 4 cm compared to treatments in which irrigation was continued until mid-April. Profile water depletion was inversely related to the amount of irrigation. Grain weight and yields from the various treatments harvested in the last week of April were unaffected by the treatments.The authors are grateful to the ICAR for financing this research     

Potato water use and yield under furrow irrigation

Field experiments were conducted to study the effects of plant-furrow treatments and levels of irrigation on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) water use, yield, and water-use efficiency. The experiments were carried out under deficit irrigation conditions in a sandy loam soil of eastern India in the winter seasons of 1991/92, 1992/93, and 1993/94. Two plant-furrow treatments and two levels of irrigation were considered. The two plant-furrow treatments were FB>1B> - furrows with single row of planting in each ridge with 45 cm distance between adjacent ridges, and FB>2B> - furrows with double rows of planting spaced 30 cm apart in each ridge with 60 cm distance between adjacent ridges. The two levels of irrigation (LOI) were IB>1B> - 0.9 IW/CPE and IB>2B> - 1.2 IW/CPE, where IW is irrigation water of 5 cm and CPE is cumulative pan evaporation. Treatment FB>2B> produced highest tuber yield in all years with average value of 10,610 kg ha ^-1 and 12,780 kg ha ^-1 at LOI of IB>1B> and IB>2B>, respectively. On average, six irrigations with a total of 25 cm, and seven irrigations with a total of 30 cm were required for both treatments FB>1B> and FB>2B> at LOI of IB>1B> and IB>2B>, respectively. Treatment FB>2B> resulted in a significantly higher number of branches and tubers per plant, foliage coverage and water-use efficiency for both irrigation levels than treatment FB>1B>. Average daily crop evapotranspiration was found to range from 1.1 to 3.4 mm and from 1.2 to 3.9 mm for treatment FB>1B> and from 1.1 to 3.6 mm and from 1.2 to 4.0 mm for treatment FB>2B> at LOI of IB>1B> and IB>2B>, respectively.     

Production and water use in lettuces under variable water supply

The effects of a variable water supply on the water use, growth and yield of two crisphead and one romaine (i.e., Cos) lettuce cultivar were examined in a field experiment using a line source sprinkler system that produced a range of water regimes that occur in growers fields. Four locations at increasing distances from the main line were monitored through the season (i.e., from thinning to harvest, 28–63 days after planting (DAP)). These locations at the end of the season corresponded to: (1) rewatering to field capacity (FC); (2) watering with a volume 13% below that required in the field capacity treatment (0.87*FC); (3) 30% below FC (0.70*FC); and (4) 55% below FC (0.45*FC). A linear production function for dry matter accumulation and fresh weight vs. crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) was determined for lettuce during this period, giving a water use efficiency for dry matter of 1.86 g m^–2 mm^–1 and for fresh weight of 48 g m^–2 mm^–1 . For lettuce irrigated to field capacity, ET_c between thinning and harvest was 146 mm; maximum crop coefficients of 0.81–1.02 were obtained at maturity (55–63 DAP). For the three irrigation treatments receiving the largest water application, ET_c was higher in the Cos culivar than in the two crisphead lettuce cultivars which had similar ET_c. Plant fresh weight was more sensitive than dry weight to reduction in water supply. In the FC treatment, root length density and soil water extraction were greatest in the top 0–45 cm, and decreased rapidly below 45 cm depth. Soil water extraction by roots increased at lower depths when irrigation was reduced. Instantaneous rates of leaf photosynthesis and leaf water potential showed no response to the irrigation treatments in this study, despite differences in biomass production. Evaporation was determined to be the major component of ET_c for 45 of the 63 days of the growing season. The large loss of water by evaporation during mid-season and the apparent insensitivity of lettuce to the volume of irrigation during this period may provide an opportunity for reducing irrigation applications.     

An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description

Water and land resource competition and environmental degradation pose difficult questions for resource managers. In particular, the ensuing trade-offs between economic, environmental, and social factors and their spatiotemporal variability must be considered when implementing management policies. This paper describes an integrated modelling toolbox that has been developed for highland catchments – specifically the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. This toolbox contains models of crop growth, erosion and rainfall-runoff, as well as household decision and socioeconomic impact models. The approach described advances and complements previous approaches by: considering more complex interactions between land-use decisions and the hydrological cycle; modelling household decisions based on uncertain expectations; and assessing impacts of changes not only on flows and household income, but also on subsistence production and erosion. An example of the types of trade-offs and scenarios that can be assessed using the integrated modelling toolbox is also presented. This demonstrates that for the scenarios presented, the magnitude and direction of impacts simulated by the model is not dependent on climate. Further testing of the model is demonstrated in a companion paper. Overall, the plausibility of the model is shown.