基于MODIS与AMSR-E数据的雪被产品合成及精度评价

摘要：利用2002年10月1日-2008年3月31日青海省Terra/MOD10A1和Aqua/MYD10A1每日雪被产品,合成了MODIS五日积雪分类图像（MOYD_5D）,结合AMSR E五日雪水当量产品（AE_5D）,利用用户自定义合成算法合成五日积雪分类图像AEMD_5D。根据气象台站的雪情数据,对比分析MOYD_5D、AE_5D和AEMD_5D这3种积雪产品的积雪分类精度（Sa）。结果表明,1）当积雪深度为1~3 cm时, MOYD_5D、AE_5D和AEMD_5D的积雪分类精度分别为17.5%、49.8%和23.2%;2）积雪深度为4~6 cm时,MOYD_5D、AE_5D和AEMD_5D的Sa分别为46.2%、55.1%和56.9%;3）雪深为7~9 cm时,MOYD_5D、AE_5D和AEMD_5D的Sa分别为58.6%、78.5%和78.6%;4）当雪深≥10 cm时,MOYD_5D、AE_5D和AEMD_5D的Sa分别为66.7%、82.2%和84.1%。合成产品AEMD_5D对积雪分类精度有所提高,对于牧区雪灾监测及评价具有重要的应用价值。     

Post-fire analysis of pre-fire mapping of fire-risk: A recent case study from Mt. Carmel (Israel)

The recent devastating wildfire on Mt. Carmel provided a unique opportunity to evaluate a fire-risk map constructed for the region, published two years ago in this journal. This largest forest fire in the history of Israel, occurred during December 2010, covering 2180 ha, burning more than half-million trees and causing the loss of life of 45 people.A study of fire risk in this area was conducted between 2007 and 2009 utilizing a combination of Monte Carlo simulation of spatial spread of fire ignition with fire behavior model (FARSITE). The fire risk map produced in 2009 is assessed here with reference to the area burnt during December 2010. The results showed that most of burnt areas corresponded to high risk levels in the risk map. According to a null model, the five lower risk levels taken together would have corresponded to 50% of the burnt area, while in fact they were presented in only 5.6% of the area. In contrast, the three highest risk levels, for which the null model expectation would be a representation of 30%, were represented in 87% of the area. Comparing the fire risk map against the map of the real recent fire provided support to the general approach, and strengthened the confidence of our fire risk model.     

Effect of mixing and sampling method on pelleted feed nutrient analysis and diet formulation validation

Samples of pelleted feed may be taken during manufacturing and analyzed for nutrient content in order to estimate if nutrients are in accordance with diet formulation. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of mix time, sample location, sample number, and sample blending technique on analyzed nutrients. Ingredients were mixed in a single screw vertical mixer for 30 s or 10 minutes. Samples were taken post extrusion from the pellet die as hot pellets or post cooling and conveyance as finished feed. Two or 10 samples were collected at equally spaced time intervals and pooled. Subsamples were obtained by blending pooled samples by hand or using a sample splitting device. Proximate and supplemental amino acid analysis was determined on each blended subsample and standardized for moisture content. Crude fat and free supplemental DL-methionine were affected by mix time (P < 0.05). The 10-minute mix time produced crude fat and free supplemental DL-methionine that had lower and higher values, respectively, compared to the 30-second mix time and agreed more with the calculated nutrient profile and diet formulation. Free supplemental DL-methionine was also affected by sampling location (P < 0.05). Samples obtained at the pellet die were higher and agreed more with diet formulation compared to finished feed samples. Analysis of free supplemental DL-methionine from samples obtained at the pellet die may best indicate pelleted diet homogeneity and validate the diet formulation.     

AquaCrop模型的适用性及应用初探

AquaCrop模型是FAO新推出的以水分为驱动的作物生长模型。为了评价其在华北地区的适用性,于2009-2010年在中国水利水电科学研究院大兴试验站进行了夏玉米水分处理试验,其中2010年的试验数据用于参数率定,2009年的试验教据用于模型验证,并在此基础上对模型参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明,AquaCrop模型能够...     

滦河流域月降雨空间变异性研究

介绍了 权重系数法推求普通kriging的理论半变异函数模型参数，并将这种方法应用到滦河流域月降雨空间变异性研究中，然后采用交叉验证法检验了kriging法的插值效果。根据计算结果分析可知，各月变程变化范围较大，其中8月份变程最大，为178km，说明该月降雨空间变异性最小。同时，各个月份的 比值范围在0～23.08%之间，这表明滦河流域降雨量具有较强的空间相关性。     

Habitat models and habitat connectivity analysis for butterflies and burnet moths - The example of Zygaena carniolica and Coenonympha arcania

In this paper, habitat models were used to predict potential habitat for endangered species, which is an important question in landscape and conservation planning. Based on logistic regression, we developed habitat distribution models for the burnet moth Zygaena carniolica and the nymphalid butterfly Coenonympha arcania in Northern Bavaria, Germany. The relation between adult occurrence and habitat parameters, including the influence of landscape context, was analyzed on 118 sites. Habitat connectivity analyses were carried out on the basis of (1) habitat suitability maps generated from these models and (2) dispersal data from mark recapture studies. Our results showed that (1) the presence of the burnet depended mainly on the presence of nectar plants and of nutrient-poor dry grasslands in direct vicinity, that of the nymphalid on larger areas of extensively used dry grasslands within 100 m vicinity in combination with small patches of higher shrubs and bushes. (2) Internal as well as external validation indicated the robustness and general applicability of the models. Transferability in time and space indicated their high potential relevance for applications in nature conservation, such as predicting possible effects of land use changes. (3) Habitat connectivity analyses revealed a high degree of habitat connectivity within the study area. Thus, we could show no effects of isolation or habitat size for both species.     

细沟侵蚀动态过程模拟室内试验和模型验证研究

进行了一系列室内试验，以验证模拟细沟演变动态过程的数学模型。该模型模拟了细沟水流的动态过程、水力学特性参数的空间变化、细沟中土壤的剥离、运输及沉积过程；模拟了细沟在侵蚀过程中的形态演变，其中包括沟宽、沟深、局部坡度在空间上的差异及其随时间的变化；模拟了细沟侵蚀/泥沙沉积后局部细沟形态的变化对细沟水流反馈效应。试验土壤为砂壤土，采用的坡度为：3%，5%，7%；3个流量：7.6，11.4，15.2 L/min。在同一试验条件不同工况下对模型进行了验证，同时对细沟中沿程水流速度和细沟末端的侵蚀产沙量进行了模拟值和试验实测值的对比。结果表明，模型预测值和实测细沟形态演变值具有很好的一致性，模型中提出的侵蚀、沟床形态变化和水力学特性参数间的互反馈环效应可以反映细沟侵蚀的动态演变过程和发展趋势。     

Soil erosion potential of organic versus conventional farming evaluated by USLE modelling of cropping statistics for agricultural districts in Bavaria

Abstract. Organic agriculture (OA) aims to identify a production regime that causes less environmental problems than conventional agriculture (CA). We examined whether the two systems differ in their susceptibility to soil erosion by water. To account for the large heterogeneity within the rotations practised on different farms, we chose a statistical evaluation which modelled erosion using the USLE method from the cropping statistics for 2056 districts in Bavaria (70 547 km²; 29.8% arable). Physical conditions of erosion were determined in a rectangular grid yielding 13 125 grid-cells of c. 5 km² each. For validation, erosion was measured in 10 sub-watersheds on two neighbouring OA and CA farms over 8 years (287 erosive events). On average, about 15% less erosion on arable land was predicted for OA than for CA due to the larger area of leys, although OA occupies areas that are susceptible to erosion more often than CA. The same conclusions could be drawn from the validation data. These data also demonstrated that erosion could be reduced considerably below 1 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ with best management practices under both farming systems. In contrast, at the countrywide scale, cropping did not change adequately with site conditions favouring erosion. The need for erosion control seems not to influence crop rotation decisions on erosion-prone sites.     

桩基螺旋型地埋管换热器换热性能的数值模拟与验证

为了探讨不同因素对桩基螺旋型地埋管换热性能的影响,建立了桩基螺旋型地埋管换热器的传热数学模型,分析了桩基直径、桩基深度、螺旋管组数、土壤类型对桩基螺旋型地埋管换热量及土壤温度分布的影响,结果表明:增加桩基直径有利于改善桩基的蓄热能力、提高螺旋型埋管的换热性能,但是单位管长换热量会减小,因此,桩基直径不可无限制增加;桩基深度的增加有利于提高桩基螺旋型埋管换热器的换热量,而且对单位长度桩基的换热量影响很小,因此,可以通过增加桩基深度来提高换热量;同样条件下,黏土、砂土、砂岩中砂岩最有利于桩基换热器换热,土壤温度上升速率和幅度最低,而黏土换热效果最差,土壤温度上升速率最快;此外,螺旋管组数越多,换热器换热量越大,但是单位管长换热量会大幅下降。试验验证表明:所建桩基螺旋埋管模型预测出的换热量与土壤温度值与对应试验值吻合较好,其最大相对误差分别在9.7%与9.2%以内。     

Using Cs measurements to validate the application of the AGNPS and ANSWERS erosion and sediment yield models in two small Devon catchments

Distributed erosion and sediment yield models are being increasingly used for predicting soil erosion and sediment yields in agricultural catchments. In most applications, validation of such models has commonly been restricted to comparison of the predicted and measured sediment output from a catchment, because spatially distributed information on rates and patterns of soil redistribution within the catchment has been lacking. However, such spatially distributed data are needed for rigorous model testing, in order to validate the internal functioning of a model and its applicability at different spatial scales. The study reported in this paper uses two approaches to test the performance of the agricultural non-point source pollution (AGNPS) and areal non-point source watershed environmental response simulation (ANSWERS) erosion and sediment yield models in two small catchments in Devon, UK. These involve, firstly, comparison of observed and predicted runoff and sediment output data for individual storm events monitored at the basin outlets and, secondly, information on the spatial pattern of soil redistribution within the catchments derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements. The results obtained indicate that catchment outputs simulated by both models are reasonably consistent with the recorded values, although the AGNPS model appears to provide closer agreement between observed and predicted values. However, the spatial patterns of soil redistribution and the sediment delivery ratios predicted for the two catchments by the AGNPS and ANSWERS models differ significantly. Comparison of the catchment sediment delivery ratios and the pattern of soil redistribution in individual fields predicted by the models with equivalent information derived from ¹³⁷Cs measurements indicates that the AGNPS model provides more meaningful predictions of erosion and sediment yield under UK conditions than the ANSWERS model and emphasises the importance of using information on both catchment output and sediment redistribution within the catchment for model validation.