Assessing fire risk using Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread

Understanding the spatial pattern of fire is essential for Mediterranean vegetation management. Fire-risk maps are typically constructed at coarse resolutions using vegetation maps with limited capacity for prescribing prevention activities. This paper describes and evaluates a novel approach for fire risk assessment that may produce a decision support system for actual fire management at fine scales. FARSITE, a two-dimensional fire growth and behavior model was activated, using ArcView VBA code, to generate Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread. The study area was 300 km² of Mt. Carmel, Israel. FARSITE fuel models were adjusted for Mediterranean conditions. The simulation session consisted of 500 runs. For each simulation run, a calendar date, fire length, ignition location, climatic data and other parameters were selected randomly from known distributions of these parameters. Distance from road served as a proxy for the probability of ignition. The resulting 500 maps of fire distribution (the entire area burnt in a specific fire) were overlaid to produce a map of ‘hotspots’ and ‘cold spots’ of fire frequency. The results revealed a clear pattern of fires, with high frequency areas concentrated in the northwestern part. The spatial pattern of the fire frequency map bears partial resemblance to the fuel map, but seems to be affected by several other factors as well, including the location of urban areas, microclimate, topography and the distribution of ignition locations (which is affected by road pattern). These results demonstrate the complexities of fire behavior, showing a very clear pattern of risk level even at fine scales, where neighboring areas have different risk levels due to combinations of vegetation cover, topography, microclimate and other factors.     

Historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains,northeastern China: Implications for long-term forest management

Understanding both historic and current fire regimes is indispensable to sustainable forest landscape management. In this paper, we use a spatially explicit landscape simulation model, LANDIS, to simulate historic and current fire regimes in the Great Xing’an Mountains, in northeastern China. We analyzed fire frequency, fire size, fire intensity, and spatial pattern of burnt patches. Our simulated results show that fire frequency under the current fire scenario is lower than under the historic fire scenario; total area burnt is larger with lower fire intensity under the historic fire scenario, and smaller with higher fire intensity under the current fire scenario. We also found most areas were burned by high intensity fires under the current fire scenario, but by low to moderate fires under the historic fire scenario. Burnt patches exhibit a different pattern between the two simulation scenarios. Large patches burnt by high intensity class fires dominate the landscape under the current fire scenario, and under historic fire scenario, patches burnt by low to moderate fire intensity fires have relatively larger size than those burnt by high intensity fires. Based on these simulated results, we suggest that prescribed burning or coarse woody debris reduction should be incorporated into forest management plans in this region, especially on north-facing slopes. Tree planting may be a better management option on these severely burned areas whereas prescribed burning after small area selective cutting, retaining dispersed seed trees, may be a sound forest management alternative in areas except for the severely burned patches.     

Forest Fire History in Viena Karelia,Russia

The history of forest fires was studied in north-west Russia near the Finnish-Russian border on a total of 22 transects within a 3 x 4 km area, 100 m long and 20 m wide, bydendrochronological methods. In total, 25 fires were identified as having occurred in the area between 1400 and 1998. On average, a fire occurred somewhere within the area once every 23 yrs, and once every 13 yrs between 1650 and 1950. The fire frequency (proportion of the area burnt per time unit) broadly followed the changes in the number of fires, but there were also differences. The fire frequency was 1.87% from 1679 to 1872 and 0.40% from 1873 onwards. The mean fire interval was 62 yrs and the median interval 56 yrs. According to the tree-ring width chronology tree growth was significantly lower in the dated fire years than in other years. Forest fire history in north-west Russia is broadly similar to that in many parts of Scandinavia.     

Characterization of forest fires in Catalonia (north-east Spain)

The present study analyses the temporal variation in the distribution of the number of fires, area burned and fire sizes in Catalonia using fire data from 1942 to 2002. The study shows variations in the distribution of fire size over recent decades, with a significant increase in the number of very large fires. The study also analyses relationships between characteristics of the forest (altitude, slope, aspect, living fuels and species composition) and the probability of the fire occurrence. The analysis is based on the overlay of forest cover data and perimeters of forest fires during the period (1986–2002). Of the analysed variables, altitude affects most the probability of fire occurrence, with higher proportions of burned forest area at lower altitudes. Stand’s vertical structure is also relevant, with lower proportions of burned area in stands with mature tree cover without understory. The study helps to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of forest and fire management policies, especially those related to forest and fuel management at the landscape level.     

Evaluation of deriving fire cycle of forested landscape based on time-since-fire distribution

Introduction Fire has been the dominant disturbance and responsible for much of the structure and function of boreal ecosystems (Wein and MacLean 1983; Johnson 1992). Among the components defining fire regime (i.e., a combination of four components, namel…     

Long term accumulation of nitrogen in soils of dry mixed eucalypt forest in the absence of fire

In the Eden area in NSW, Australia, low fertility granitic surface soils were sampled from 156 sites and analysed for pH, organic C, total N, total P, available P, exchangeable bases and exchangeable Al. Fifty eight of these sites were also sampled to a depth of 40 cm. Time since fire ranged from 1 to 39 years and was used in the analysis as a surrogate for fire frequency. No information was available on fire intensity. No significant relationships were found between time since fire and P or base cations. However, the quantities of organic matter and total N (kg ha⁻¹), and the C/N ratio were significantly related to both time since fire alone and to the combination of time since fire and soil total P. Based on these relationships, it was estimated that there were average net increases of between 11 and 21 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in surface soil, the actual quantity depending on the level of soil total P. There was little change in N in the initial 10 years after fire and there was a peak in N accumulation about 24 years after fire. The C/N ratio and surface soil pH decreased with time since fire. Accumulation of N and reductions in pH and C/N ratio were studied further in a small scale paired plot analysis. The repeatedly burnt plots had lower levels of both litter and understorey and the overstorey trees generally had healthier crowns than in the unburnt plots. The differences between the repeatedly burnt and the unburnt plots matched the models developed from the general survey. There were no significant changes in the C/N ratio, but the unburnt sites had higher levels of extractable mineral N and the relationships between the mineral N and the C/N ratio for burnt and unburnt sites were statistically significant. The quantities of extractable mineral N in the unburnt soils (2.3 kg N ha⁻¹) were about twice the levels in the burnt soils (1.2 kg N ha⁻¹). The pH of the surface soil (4.4 in 1:1 water) in the regularly burnt area was higher than in the unburnt area (pH 4.1) and the exchangeable aluminium also differed (0.62 c mol⁻¹ in the burnt area and 1.3 c mol⁻¹ in the unburnt). The combined data indicate that changes occur in forest soils when there is a long period of exclusion of fire. It is suggested that these changes generally lead to secondary changes, such as in pH and availability of other elements such as aluminium. The study highlights a number of issues including the rates of inputs of N to the system and the question of N saturation and its long term interaction with plant species. It is hypothesised that reduced burning leads to increased N availability and other soil changes which negatively impact on tree health.     

Does postfire management affect the recovery of Mediterranean communities? The case study of terrestrial gastropods

In fire-prone regions, understanding the response of species to fire is a major goal in order to predict the effects on biodiversity. Furthermore, postfire management can also model this response through the manipulation of environmental characteristics of the burnt habitat. We have examined the taxonomic and functional response to fire and postfire management of a Mediterranean snail community affected by a summer fire in 2003. After the fire, the area was logged, leaving wood debris on the ground, and three alternative practices were implemented in several plots within the burnt area: subsoiling, removal of trunks having branches, total removal of trunks and branches, as well as one area not logged. Our results indicated that fire exerted a major impact on the snail community, strongly reducing diversity and species richness, particularly for forest species living in the humus and having European distribution ranges. By contrast, we found slight differences within the postfire practices, presumably because of the strong initial impact of fire and subsequent xerophilous postfire conditions. However, the area with only trunk removal showed a positive response of generalist snail species, probably due to moist microhabitats provided by the accumulation of wood debris on the ground. The effects of postfire management should be further explored due to the expected increase of fire risk associated with climate change and land-use histories.     

Vegetation and weather explain variation in crown damage within a large mixed-severity wildfire

The 2002 Biscuit Fire burned through more than 200,000 ha of mixed-conifer/evergreen hardwood forests in southwestern Oregon and northwestern California. The size of the fire and the diversity of conditions through which it burned provided an opportunity to analyze relationships between crown damage and vegetation type, recent fire history, geology, topography, and regional weather conditions on the day of burning. We measured pre- and post-fire vegetation cover and crown damage on 761 digital aerial photo-plots (6.25 ha) within the unmanaged portion of the burn and used random forest and regression tree models to relate patterns of damage to a suite of 20 predictor variables. Ninety-eight percent of plots experienced some level of crown damage, but only 10% experienced complete crown damage. The median level of total crown damage was 74%; median damage to conifer crowns was 52%. The most important predictors of total crown damage were the percentage of pre-fire shrub-stratum vegetation cover and average daily temperature. The most important predictors of conifer damage were average daily temperature and “burn period,” an index of fire weather and fire suppression effort. The median level of damage was 32% within large conifer cover and 62% within small conifer cover. Open tree canopies with high levels of shrub-stratum cover were associated with the highest levels of tree crown damage, while closed canopy forests with high levels of large conifer cover were associated with the lowest levels of tree crown damage. Patterns of damage were similar within the area that burned previously in the 1987 Silver Fire and edaphically similar areas without a recent history of fire. Low-productivity sites on ultramafic soils had 92% median crown damage compared to 59% on non-ultramafic sites; the proportion of conifer cover damaged was also higher on ultramafic sites. We conclude that weather and vegetation conditions — not topography — were the primary determinants of Biscuit Fire crown damage.     

基于地理加权回归模型与林火遥感数据估算森林年龄

【目的】通过地理加权回归(GWR)模型估算非干扰林龄,利用遥感数据和林火发生历史数据,获取过火区域信息,进而对林火烈度分级,讨论林火烈度与森林类型的交互作用,估算干扰林龄,最终获得黑龙江省森林年龄的空间分布。【方法】以黑龙江森林为研究区域,基于研究区域的多光谱数据结合地面森林资源清查数据,通过逐步回归方法提取了包括遥感因子绿度指数(Greeness)、湿度指数(Wetness)、林分平均胸径(ADBH)、林分平均树高(ASH)及海拔(Altitude)在内的5个显著因子作为自变量,采用GWR模型建立非干扰林龄估算模型。采用全局Moran I来描述模型残差的空间自相关性。绘制研究区非干扰林龄空间分布图并探究林龄的空间分布状态。[JP+1]结合林火位置与面积记录对多光谱数据目视解译提取过火区域,根据dNBR将过火区域火烈度分级。将火烈度图与植被类型图叠加分析,讨论不同森林类型在不同火烈度下的演替情况。定义干扰林龄时,未发生树种更替的森林林龄不变,树种发生更替的森林在林火发生年将其林龄归为0,并在新的优势树种萌发时从1开始累加,以此类推干扰后森林的林龄。【结果】黑龙江省非干扰森林平均林龄为48年,标准差为16年。GWR模型的 Radj^2 为0.68,RMSE为16.171 7。使用Moran I来检验模型的残差,发现GWR模型可很好地消除残差的空间自相关性。研究区林龄整体空间分布状态不均匀,大兴安岭地区林龄普遍高于黑龙江林区。黑龙江省2000―2010年林火主要发生在大兴安岭及小兴安岭地区,根据dNBR将已提取的过火区域林火烈度分为:未过火、轻度过火、中度过火和重度过火4类,总过火面积为527 932 hm^2,其中重度29 157 hm^2、中度180 268 hm^2、轻度318 507 hm^2。兴安落叶松林和蒙古栎林在整个研究区中过火面积最大,分别占总过火面积的28.63%和47.23%。根据不同森林类型在不同火烈度下的演替情况,估算干扰森林的林龄并绘制干扰林龄空间分布图。【结论】 GWR模型能较有效地估算黑龙江省非干扰林龄,成功地降低了残差的空间自相关性。在估算林龄的过程中加入林火干扰因素,以获取更真实的林龄空间分布数据,可为黑龙江地区森林NPP、NEP以及森林碳储量、森林生物量等相关研究提供数据支持。     

The effect of timing of forest fire on phenology and seed production in the fire-dependent herbs Geranium bohemicum and G. lanuginosum in Sweden

The seasonal distribution of fires is one fire regime variable which has received little attention with regard to its effects on plants. For species with a short life-span that recruits after fire, the seasonal timing of a fire can be expected to be important due to effects on potential growth period and reproduction. We observed phenology and reproductive output in two annual and fire-dependent Geranium spp. in the southern part of the European boreal forest. In a garden experiment with the two species under two levels of nutrition, we established cohorts of seedlings at several dates over three summers. Time from germination to flowering and first mature seed differed little between the two species and levels of nutrition; i.e. plant size or level of nutrition had almost no effect on phenology. However, emergence time controlled the timing of reproduction. Most plants emerging before the second week of July in the garden experiment bolted the same year. Plants emerging later behaved as winter-annuals and started to flower in June the following year. A similar dichotomy was observed for populations of Geranium spp. at a number of burnt forest sites that differed in date of fire. This response is likely controlled by photoperiod. Nevertheless, at sites that burnt early some plants did not bolt in the same season; probably an effect of variable seedling emergence dates in the populations. In both the field and garden experiment, there were plants entering reproduction too late to produce mature seeds. Our results indicate that management fires should be conducted either very early, or during July and August to achieve a high seed production in these rare forest plants.     

Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California's forests,woodlands, shrublands,and grasslands

In the majority of US political settings wildland fire is still discussed as a negative force. Lacking from current wildfire discussions are estimates of the spatial extent of fire and their resultant emissions before the influences of Euro-American settlement and this is the focus of this work. We summarize the literature on fire history (fire rotation and fire return intervals) and past Native American burning practices to estimate past fire occurrence by vegetation type. Once past fire intervals were established they were divided into the area of each corresponding vegetation type to arrive at estimates of area burned annually. Finally, the First Order Fire Effects Model was used to estimate emissions. Approximately 1.8 million ha burned annually in California prehistorically (pre 1800). Our estimate of prehistoric annual area burned in California is 88% of the total annual wildfire area in the entire US during a decade (1994–2004) characterized as “extreme” regarding wildfires. The idea that US wildfire area of approximately two million ha annually is extreme is certainly a 20th or 21st century perspective. Skies were likely smoky much of the summer and fall in California during the prehistoric period. Increasing the spatial extent of fire in California is an important management objective. The best methods to significantly increase the area burned is to increase the use of wildland fire use (WFU) and appropriate management response (AMR) suppression fire in remote areas. Political support for increased use of WFU and AMR needs to occur at local, state, and federal levels because increasing the spatial scale of fire will increase smoke and inevitability, a few WFU or AMR fires will escape their predefined boundaries.     

Effect of hill fire on upland soil in Hong Kong

The present study compares the soil chemical properties of a new burnt site and an old burnt site, which had experienced three and one fire(s) respectively since 1988. The new burnt site is presently reduced to grassland and the old burnt site to mixed grassland/scrubland. Repeated fires raised soil pH by 0.27–0.33 units, exchangeable H and K by over 100%, but reduced total exchangeable acidity by 85%, organic matter by 86%, total Kjeldahl nitrogen by 75%, NH₄ by 44%, NO₃ by 42%, total phosphorus by 66%, exchangeable Na by 42%, Ca by 83%, Mg by 41%, Mn by 14%, Fe by 12% and Zn by 4% of the new burnt site against the old burnt site. Fire similarly reduced the effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) and the base saturation by 85% and 90%, respectively. The occurrence of successive fires is therefore hazardous to the environment and in the absence of fire for 6 years the old burnt site has accumulated sufficient organic matter and nitrogen needed for the invasion of the more nutrient-demanding tree species. The selection of tree species and site preparation pertaining to enhancement planting of the fire-disturbed slopes to accelerate forest development are discussed.     

基于地理加权回归模型与林火遥感数据估算森林年龄

【目的】通过地理加权回归(GWR)模型估算非干扰林龄,利用遥感数据和林火发生历史数据,获取过火区域信息,进而对林火烈度分级,讨论林火烈度与森林类型的交互作用,估算干扰林龄,最终获得黑龙江省森林年龄的空间分布。【方法】以黑龙江森林为研究区域,基于研究区域的多光谱数据结合地面森林资源清查数据,通过逐步回归方法提取了包括遥感因子绿度指数(Greeness)、湿度指数(Wetness)、林分平均胸径(ADBH)、林分平均树高(ASH)及海拔(Altitude)在内的5个显著因子作为自变量,采用GWR模型建立非干扰林龄估算模型。采用全局Moran I来描述模型残差的空间自相关性。绘制研究区非干扰林龄空间分布图并探究林龄的空间分布状态。[JP+1]结合林火位置与面积记录对多光谱数据目视解译提取过火区域,根据dNBR将过火区域火烈度分级。将火烈度图与植被类型图叠加分析,讨论不同森林类型在不同火烈度下的演替情况。定义干扰林龄时,未发生树种更替的森林林龄不变,树种发生更替的森林在林火发生年将其林龄归为0,并在新的优势树种萌发时从1开始累加,以此类推干扰后森林的林龄。【结果】黑龙江省非干扰森林平均林龄为48年,标准差为16年。GWR模型的 Radj^2 为0.68,RMSE为16.171 7。使用Moran I来检验模型的残差,发现GWR模型可很好地消除残差的空间自相关性。研究区林龄整体空间分布状态不均匀,大兴安岭地区林龄普遍高于黑龙江林区。黑龙江省2000―2010年林火主要发生在大兴安岭及小兴安岭地区,根据dNBR将已提取的过火区域林火烈度分为:未过火、轻度过火、中度过火和重度过火4类,总过火面积为527 932 hm^2,其中重度29 157 hm^2、中度180 268 hm^2、轻度318 507 hm^2。兴安落叶松林和蒙古栎林在整个研究区中过火面积最大,分别占总过火面积的28.63%和47.23%。根据不同森林类型在不同火烈度下的演替情况,估算干扰森林的林龄并绘制干扰林龄空间分布图。【结论】 GWR模型能较有效地估算黑龙江省非干扰林龄,成功地降低了残差的空间自相关性。在估算林龄的过程中加入林火干扰因素,以获取更真实的林龄空间分布数据,可为黑龙江地区森林NPP、NEP以及森林碳储量、森林生物量等相关研究提供数据支持。     

Analyzing the effectiveness of alternative fuel reductions of a forested landscape in Northeastern China

Successful management of forest fire risk in the Northeastern China boreal forest ecosystem often involves trade-offs between fire dynamics, fire hazard reduction, and fiscal input. We used the LANDIS model to study the effects of alternative fuel reduction strategies on fire dynamics and analyzed cost effectiveness for each fuel reduction strategy based on cost–benefit theory. Five levels of fuel treatment area (2, 4, 6, 8, and 10% for each decade) and two fuel treatment types (prescribed burning [PB] and mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire [PR]) under current fire suppression simulated by LANDIS were compared in a 5 × 2 factorial design over a 300-year period. The results showed that PR scenarios are more effective at reducing the occurrence and burn area of catastrophic fires than PB scenarios. In addition, area burned by high intensity fire can be tremendously reduced by increasing low intensity fires with a higher level of treatment area under the various PR scenarios. The cost effectiveness of alternative fuel reduction strategies is strongly dependent on treatment area. In general, PB scenarios will be more cost effective in larger treatment areas and PR scenarios in smaller. We recommend mechanical treatments in combination with prescribed fire, with 4% of landscape treated in each decade (PR04) to be the optimal fuel reduction strategy in the study area based on risk control and cost efficiency analysis. However, the most challenging work in China is to make local forest policy makers and land managers accept the ecological function of fire on forest ecosystems.     

Wildfire risk in the wildland–urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.     

Modeling prescribed burns to serve as regional firebreaks to allow wildfire activity in protected areas

Management around wilderness parks ideally requires thorough fire suppression in proximate settled and commercially exploited lands and natural fire within protected areas. To satisfy these requirements, we explored a potential regional firebreak (firewall) based on a series of prescribed burns in Quetico Provincial Park in northwestern Ontario, Canada. Fire managers were recruited each to independently devise a regional firebreak using simulated prescribed burns. The experts’ five designs consisted of between 9 and 25 prescribed burns, set over periods ranging from 3 to 8 years, and covering from 7900 to 26,100 ha. Each wildlife ignition was run after the entire firebreak was created and the vegetation was reclassified to account for post-fire vegetation re-growth. The potential efficacy of each design was tested using worst-case historical weather and 100 random ignitions in the Prometheus fire growth simulation model. Without a firewall, 100 ignitions resulted in 69 fires escaping the park and consuming 483,900 ha of forest beyond the park boundary. The firewall designs were all effective, reducing the area burned outside the park to between 15,400 and 35,400 ha. There was a 77–90% reduction in the number of fires escaping the firewall areas and an average reduction of fire area beyond the park of 92%. Moreover, one can map the geographic weak points in each design, which encourages iterative firebreak design improvements. For instance, firewalls set nearer the park boundary allowed fewer fires to start between the firewall and the boundary, so increasing firebreak effectiveness. The cost of the above systems can be regarded as taking preventative measures against the risk of future economic loss, and the modeling approach reduces the uncertainties in associated decision making.     

Nonparametric multivariate analysis of variance for affecting factors on the extent of forest fire damage in Jilin Province,China

Forest fires are influenced by several factors,including forest location, species type, age and density,date of fire occurrence, temperatures, and wind speeds,among others. This study investigates the quantitative effects of these factors on the degree of forest fire disaster using nonparametric statistical methods to provide a theoretical basis and data support for forest fire management.Data on forest fire damage from 1969 to 2013 was analyzed. The results indicate that different forest locations and types, fire occurrence dates, temperatures, and wind speeds were statistically significant. The eastern regions of the study area experienced the highest fire occurrence,accounting for 85.0% of the total number of fires as well as the largest average forested area burned. April, May, and October had more frequent fires than other months,accounting for 78.9%, while September had the most extensive forested area burned(63.08 ha) and burnt area(106.34 ha). Hardwood mixed forest and oak forest had more frequent fires, accounting for 31.9% and 26.0%,respectively. Hardwood-conifer mixed forest had the most forested area burned(50.18 ha) and burnt area(65.09 ha).Temperatures, wind speeds, and their interaction had significant impacts on forested area burned and area burnt.     

An easy,accurate and efficient procedure to create forest fire risk maps using the SEXTANTE plugin Modeler

To prevent, detect, and protect against forest fires, forest personnel need to define rules for determining forest fire risk. In Portugal, all municipalities must annually produce forest fire risk(FFR) maps. To produce more reliable FFR maps more easily, we developed an open source model using the Modeler plugin of SEXTANTE in the program QGIS version 2.0 Dufour. The model provides all the maps involved in the FFR model(susceptibility map, hazard map, vulnerability map, economic value map,and potential loss map) and was produced according to Portuguese Forest Authority's(AFN, Autoridade Florestal Nacional) rules for determining the FFR. This model was tested for the Portuguese municipality Santa Maria da Feira, where 40 % of the total municipality area falls in the category ‘‘very high' or ‘‘high' fire risk. The ‘‘very high'fire risk area is mainly classified as broad-leaved forest and has the steepest slopes(15 %). The distance of burned areas to roads was also analyzed; the proportion of burned areas increased with increasing distance to the main roads.In addition, 92.6 % of the ‘‘high' and ‘‘very high' risk zones were located in areas with lower elevation. These results confirmed that forest fire is strongly influenced not only by environmental factors but also by anthropogenic factors. The procedure implemented here was compared with our open source application already available in QGIS and also to the same procedure implemented in GIS proprietary software. Although the results were obviously the same, the model developed here presents several advantages over the other two approaches. Besides being faster,it is easy to change the model parameters according to user needs(i.e., to the rules of different countries), and can be modified and adapted to other variables and other areas to create risk maps for different natural phenomena(e.g.,floods, earthquakes, landslides). The model is easy to use and to create risk and hazard maps rapidly in a free, open source environment that does not require any programming knowledge.     

Does forest biomass harvesting for energy reduce fire hazard in the Mediterranean basin? a case study in the Caroig Massif (Eastern Spain)

The Mediterranean basin is a fire-prone area and is expected to continue being so according to projected climate and socioeconomic changes. Sustainable exploitation of forest biomass could have a positive effect on wildfire hazard mitigation. A modelling approach was used to compare how four different Scenarios for biomass collection for energy use affect fire behaviour and potential burnt area at landscape level under extreme meteorological conditions in a typical Mediterranean Massif. A case study of Pinus halepensis stands in Valencia (Eastern Spain) was conducted. The FARSITE simulator was used to evaluate the burnt area and fire behaviour parameters. Simulations predicted a significant increase in the burnt area and the values of most fire behaviour parameters in a Scenario of rural abandonment, relative to the current situation. Biomass management through thinning reduced canopy bulk density; however, no differences in the values of the main fire behaviour parameters were detected. Thinning and understory clearing, including biomass collection in large shrub fuel model areas, significantly reduces fire hazard. Forest biomass sustainable harvesting for energy is expected to reduce fire hazard if management includes intense modification of fuel models, comprising management of shrub biomass at the landscape level. Strong modification of forest fuel models requires intensive silvicultural treatments. Therefore, forest biomass collection for energy in the Mediterranean basin reduces fire hazard only if both tree and shrub strata are managed at landscape level.     

Forest fire risk indices and zoning of hazardous areas in Sorocaba,S?o Paulo state,Brazil

This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semideciduous forest fragments,creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator(KDE)in the municipality of Sorocaba,S?o Paulo state,Brazil.The logarithmic Telicyn index,Monte Alegre formula(MAF) and enhanced Monte Alegre formula(MAF+) were employed using data for the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2016.Meteorological data and numbers of fire occurrences were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology(INMET) and the Institute for Space Research(INPE),respectively.Two performance measures were calculated:Heidke skill score(SS) and success rate(SR).The MAF+ index was the most accurate,with values of SS and SR of 0.611% and 62.8%,respectively.The fire risk map revealed two most susceptible areas with high(63 km~2) and very high(47 km~2) risk of fires in the municipality.Identification of the best risk index and the generation of fire risk maps can contribute to better planning and cost reduction in preventing and fighting forest fires.