女性乡村旅游从业者主观幸福感的影响因素及提升策略研究

关注乡村旅游发展中女性旅游从业者主观幸福感具有较强现实意义。本研究构建了乡村旅游社区女性旅游从业者主观幸福感影响因素指标体系,以中国十大最美乡村之一的青杠树村为案例研究地,探究显著影响青杠树村女性旅游从业者主观幸福感的因素。结果表明,就业或创业机会、对家庭财产支配权、参与家庭决策权、家庭事务中话语权、日常生活丰富程度、社会认可与尊重7个因素对女性乡村旅游从业者主观幸福感产生显著影响。在此基础上,提出转型升级旅游产业、提高对女性认可与尊重、大力举办民俗活动、扩大旅游专题培训范围、发挥利益整合在冲突治理中的基础作用5个方面的女性乡村旅游从业者主观幸福感提升策略。     

基于斜坡单元的怒江州滑坡易发性研究

开展滑坡易发性分析是制定合理的地质灾害防治规划的基础，对防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。以怒江州为研究区，斜坡单元为评价单元，选取高程、坡度、坡向、NDVI、距河流距离、降雨量、岩性、距断层距离和距道路距离9个因素为评价因子，采用信息量(I)模型、确定性系数(CF)模型以及I-LR、CF-LR耦合模型进行滑坡易发性评价，并对4种模型进行精度验证。结果表明：(1)CF-LR模型中滑坡点落入高、极高易发区占比最大，为88.77%,且滑坡点密度(0.309 2)最大，高于I模型(0.285 4)与CF模型(0.277 6)单一模型；(2)极高、高易发区主要发育于怒江、独龙江、澜沧江和通甸河4条河流一带；中易发区主要分布于研究区东部；低和极低易发区主要分布在研究区的北部、中部以及西部边缘地区；(3)根据基于Sridevi Jadi经验概率法和ROC曲线的结果均表明，CF-LR模型预测精度高于其他3个模型。     

农户生态行为抉择的影响因素研究

生态行为对农村环境的水资源、空气质量与耕地保护起着重要作用。基于福建省9个地级市市59个县(县级市)220份农户的调查数据,本文试图把农户的灌溉行为、秸秆处置行为和其他属于农户生态行为的因素结合在一起构成衡量农户生态行为水平的指标,运用有序多分类logistic回归模型分析影响农户生态行为抉择的内部因素和外部环境因素。研究结果表明：(1)农户年龄、性别和受教育程度对农户生态行为水平没有显著的影响；(2)农户的家庭劳动力人数、耕地面积、是否加入农民合作组织等家庭经济特征和法规约束、群体压力等的外部环境因素对农户生态行为水平有显著的影响。在此基础上,有针对性提出了提高农户生态行为水平,促进农村生态环境改善的建议。     

基于SFLA-M-L模型的景观格局优化研究

以内蒙古自治区巴彦淖尔市磴口县为研究区,基于混合蛙跳算法,耦合逻辑回归与马尔可夫模型构建了SFLA-M-L(Shuffled frog leaping algorithm-Markov-logistic regression)模型。利用逻辑回归,综合考虑高程、坡度、地下水埋深、干旱度指数、归一化植被指数与当前景观分布进行了景观适宜性分析;利用Markov模型,构造了县域景观转移概率矩阵。利用景观适宜性指数和景观聚集度指数构造目标函数,以景观转移概率矩阵为景观变异的控制条件,对2016年景观格局分布进行了县域景观格局优化。优化结果中,景观聚集度为96.71%,比2016年景观分布提升了6.43个百分点;景观适宜性指数为96.23%,比2016年景观分布提升了4.18个百分点;不同景观类型间相互转移超出转移概率矩阵控制仅4.66 km~2,确保了优化结果的合理性。     

异质性社会资本对贫困农户融资行为的影响分析——基于宁夏南部山区建档立卡户的调查

有效拓宽建档立卡农户融资渠道可以进一步增强其脱贫后可持续发展的内生动力。基于宁夏南部山区建档立卡农户调研数据，运用多元Logistic模型分析社会资本对农户融资行为选择的影响。结果表明：人情支出越多、农户间信任程度越高，农户越倾向于正规金融机构融资；农户家庭成员中有村干部和亲戚中有政府工作人员对农户选择正规和非正规融资渠道均有显著影响。促进农户社会资本信息传递作用可以有效降低农户融资成本，应积极引导非正规金融规范发展，充分发挥非正规金融对正规金融的补充作用；加大建档立卡户非农职业技能培训力度，增加农户非农经营收入以提升其融资能力。     

基于Logistic回归模型的个人小额贷款信用风险评估及应用

构建二分类Logistic信用风险评估模型，运用光大银行某分行样本数据，评估商业银行互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险。结果显示：客户性别、学历、年龄、收入、职业、属地等因素对个人小额贷款信用风险影响显著。其中，年龄、收入、学历等与客户信用等级呈正向关系，女性信用风险显著低于男性，持有信用卡、存贷比越低的客户其信用等级越高；一、二线城市客户的履约率普遍高于县地级市客户的履约率。鉴此，商业银行应对互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险进行有效规避和分散。     

后疫情时代财经类高校大学生就业竞争力及影响因素研究——基于多元logistic回归模型的分析

利用财经类高校大学生就业问题相关数据,使用多元logistic回归分析大学生就业竞争力及其影响因素。结果显示:专业技能、工作能力与解决问题能力是影响模型大学生就业竞争力的重要因素。专业技能对女大学生就业竞争力的影响较大,工作能力和解决问题能力对男大学生就业竞争力的影响较大。建议通过以下途径提高财经类高校大学生就业竞争力:重视就业教育,搭建校企合作桥梁;注重专业学习,树立正确的就业观;加强政策引导,营造良好就业环境。     

Model fitting of the seasonal population dynamics of the soybean aphid,Aphis glycines Matsumura,in the field

The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integrated pest management (IPM). Based on systematically investigating soybean aphid populations in the field from 2018 to 2020, this study adopted the inverse logistic model for the first time, and combined it with the classical logistic model to describe the changes in seasonal population abundance from colonization to extinction in the field. Then, the increasing and decreasing phases of the population fluctuation were divided by calculating the inflection points of the models, which exhibited distinct seasonal trends of the soybean aphid populations in each year. In addition, multifactor logistic models were then established for the first time, in which the abundance of soybean aphids in the field changed with time and relevant environmental conditions. This model enabled the prediction of instantaneous aphid abundance at a given time based on relevant meteorological data. Taken as a whole, the successful approaches implemented in this study could be used to build a theoretical framework for practical IPM strategies for controlling soybean aphids.     

To exclude or not to exclude? The effect of protest responses on the economic value of an iconic urban heritage tree

It is a common practice for many studies using the contingent valuation method (CVM) to censor protest responses, but this practice may make data structures incomplete and lead to sample selection bias at the final analysis stage for economic evaluation. This study adopted the CVM to assess the economic value of Qiedong-Wang-Gong (Bischofia javanica) (QWG), the only urban heritage tree over a thousand years old in Taiwan, and analyzed the effect of protest reponses. A total of 307 valid samples were collected and 27% of the respondents were categorized to protest responses. This study used discriminant analysis and multinomial logistic regression to distinguish the types of protest samples. The results showed that the overall classification performance of the multinomial logistic regression is better than that of the discriminant analysis. The Tobit model was applied to deal protest responses as legitimate zero responses and the result showed that the model underestimated the economic values of QWG significantly. The Heckman two-stage model was utilized to evaluate the effect of censoring protest responses. The result revealed that excluding protest responses from further valuation analysis did not lead to significant sample selection bias. In this study, many respondents failed to quantify their preferences toward protecting QWG in terms of willingness to pay. This study suggested further studies could highlight the current policy about ancient urban trees management to decrease respondents’ protest beliefs in CVM studies.     

基于混合效应的湖北杉木冠长率模型

为研究冠长率与林分因子之间的生长关系,分析不同因素对冠长率的影响,对湖北全省杉木栽植区域进行标准地调查,利用181块调查样地的715株优势木和平均木数据建立冠长率模型。从树木及立地因子中选出与冠长率相关性显著的树高、胸径、高径比、每公顷株数和大于对象木断面积5个因子作为变量,利用Logistics方程构建冠长率基础模型,并以此建立关于样地的单水平混合效应模型。混合模型所有参数及其组合形式均作为随机效应进行拟合,通过比较模型AIC、BIC和似然比显著性检验,与无随机参数模型相比,含有随机参数a和f的混合模型拟合效果最优。进行独立样本检验,混合模型的均方根误差和平均误差均有所降低,分别为-0.0095、0.1175,且残差范围变小。与基础模型相比,混合模型的R²由0.3231提高到0.5417,RMSE和Bias均有所减小。基于模型的拟合优度及检验指标,混合模型能够显著提高模型的拟合精度,可以用于树冠长度的预测。