基于PDA的人工增雨火箭车载终端的设计与实现

介绍了基于DMGIS平台的服务端与基于PDA的GPS车载终端共同组成的车载火箭远程人工增雨作业指挥系统。应用智能手机与人影指挥中心进行通信,通过GPRS链路将指挥中心分发的多普勒天气雷达指挥作业参数和实时雷达回波图像截图传输到作业现场,并利用PDA的GPS定位功能,实时传输车载火箭的定位信息到指挥中心,实现动态指挥人工增雨作业,可以有效地提高基层人影办车载火箭作业系统的现场作业指挥能力。     

全球气候变暖背景下广西降水集中程度的变化特征研究

利用广西1961～2008年87个气象观测站的逐日降水资料,采用蒙特卡罗检验方法,计算和分析广西降水集中程度的变化特征。结果表明,广西大部分地区气候变暖很显著,年降水集中度由桂东北向桂西南逐渐增大。降水集中期为4月中旬～8月下旬,由桂东北向桂西南推迟。全球气候变暖背景下,广西大部地区年降水有集中加强的趋势,即发生洪涝灾害可能性有增大的趋势。降水集中期有偏早趋势,桂北较桂南显著。暴雨集中度除了桂西北及少数地区有减小趋势外,其他大部分地区有增大趋势,即发生洪涝泥石流灾害可能性增大。暴雨集中期大部地区有偏晚的趋势。     

南水北调中线渠首淅川的降水资源分析

在介绍年降量特征的基础上,分析了降水量的季节分配和雨日特征分析。     

辽宁省气温与降水时空变化特征分析

利用辽宁省53个气象观测站1960~2009年的气温、降水资料,对平均气温、最高气温、最低气温及降水的多年平均分布特征进行分析,在此基础上利用经验正交函数（EOF）方法分析温度与降水时空变化特征。结果表明,辽宁省近50年温度和降水空间分布上具有较好的全省一致性气候特征,但也存在着东西、南北间的差异。平均气温、最高气温、最低气温均表现为明显的增温趋势,最高气温极值出现在辽西,最低气温极值出现在辽东,两者的变化趋势存在非对称性,冬季增温最强,秋季最弱。全省各地年降水量自东南向西北几乎以相等间距递减分布。对各特征向量进行时间系数分析发现,平均温度、最高温度、最低温度时间系数年际变化呈总体上升趋势,降水时间系数年际变化呈总体下降的趋势,表明辽宁省气候大体呈暖干变化趋势,即气温升高、降水减少,尤其以20世纪90年代变化最为明显。     

达日县十年间气温与降水的变化趋势及相关性分析

本文通过对达日县1995年至2004年10年来气温与降雨量的统计分析,探讨了达日县气温和降雨量的变化趋势及二者的相关性。结果表明:从1995年至2004年,平均气温逐渐升高,2003年达到最高值,与1995年相比平均气温升高了1.37℃;历年降雨量变化规律不明显,在全年尺度上降雨量的变化与气温变化基本一致,表现出明显的季节性变化规律。     

MM5模式对阿勒泰地区2005—2008年汛期降水预报检验

利用MM5中尺度数值预报模式检验了阿勒泰地区2005—2008年汛期(5-9月)的降水预报效果。结果表明,MM5模式对阿勒泰地区区域性降水的定性预报有较好的指导意义;就该地区定量降水的预报而言,对小雨的预报准确率较高,其次是中雨和微雨,对大雨、暴雨基本无预报能力。     

气候变暖对葫芦岛地区气候的影响

对葫芦岛地区1959～2005年所辖4个气象站（绥中站、连山站、兴城站和建昌站）的温度、降水资料进行了分析。结果表明：气候变暖导致葫芦岛地区气温上升趋势和降水下降趋势比较明显;进入20世纪80年代以后,葫芦岛地区干旱频率增加,严重干旱次数明显高于1980年以前。同时,通过计算不同农业生产季节的干旱指数（Ik）,分析其变化趋势,指出进入20世纪80年代以后夏季、秋季及夏秋连季干旱频发,应予以高度关注。     

Effect of prevailing monsoons on the distribution of beeches in continental East Asia

Beech trees occur in significantly lower latitudes in continental East Asia than in Europe and North America. They are common deciduous trees in the deciduous forests of the temperate zone in Europe, the eastern part of North America and Japan. In continental East Asia, however, they are absent in the deciduous forests of the temperate zone, but occur in the forests of mountains in the moist subtropical zone, south of 34° Northern Latitude. The lower limits of their distribution in these mountains show a significantly different pattern from the usual distribution pattern of plants and vegetation: it declines as the latitude decreases. The altitudinal belts of beech species lie higher in the northern than in the southern parts of their distribution areas in China. Based on an analysis of the climate and the phenology of these deciduous trees, we show that the prevailing monsoon conditions are the main factor affecting the distribution of the Chinese beech species.     

Landslide densities associated with rainfall,stand age,and topography on forested landscapes,southwestern Washington,USA

Elevated landslide rates in forested landscapes can adversely impact aquatic habitat and water quality and remove and/or degrade soil resources required for forest regeneration. As a result, understanding the associations between management actions, natural factors, and landslide rates is important information needed for land managers. An unusual and powerful storm in early December, 2007, caused record flooding and thousands of landslides across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon, USA, and provided a rare opportunity to examine the effects of both natural factors and forest management practices on landslide density. Landslide inventory data were collected from both aerial photos and systematic field surveys to provide a broad survey database that was used to develop estimates of landslide density and to examine associations between landslide density, precipitation, topography, and forest stand age across a 152,000 ha forested landscape in the Willapa Hills, Washington. We estimated the probability of detecting landslides on aerial photos for six strata defined by forest stand age and a broad range of rainfall intensity, expressed as percent of the 100-year, 24-h, maximum rainfall. Key findings are that landslide detection probability decreased with increasing stand age, but was similar across rainfall intensities. The overall fraction of field-detected landslides that were not detected on 1:12,000-scale aerial photos was 39%. Very few landslides occurred in the 0–100% of 100-year rainfall category, regardless of stand age or slope gradient class. At higher rainfall intensities, significantly higher landslide densities occurred on steep slopes (>70% gradient) compared to lower gradient slopes, as expected. Above ∼150% of 100-year rainfall, the density of landslides was ∼2–3 times larger in the 0–5 and 6–10 year stand age categories than in the 11–20, 21–30, 31–40, and 41+ categories. The effect of stand age was strongest at the highest rainfall intensities. Our results demonstrate that ground-based landslide inventory data are required in order to correct for detection bias from aerial photos, develop reasonable estimates of landslide density across environmental gradients such as rainfall magnitude and topography, and make unbiased interpretations of relationships between forest management associations and landslide occurrence.     

有效降水指数在暴雨洪涝监测和评估中的应用

科学有效的监测和评估是防范和减轻暴雨洪涝灾害的重要基础。基于有效降水指数(EP)构建单站和区域暴雨洪涝监测、评估指标,利用1961-2014年湖北省76站逐日气象观测资料及相关灾情资料,确定降水衰减参数及致涝阈值,在此基础上分析EP指数在历史暴雨洪涝评估及实时暴雨洪涝过程监测中的应用效果。结果表明：经参数率定后的EP指数对农作物洪涝受灾面积的解释方差达78.1%,对年际间暴雨洪涝强度差异反应敏感,能识别历史典型大涝年和严重洪涝年,在2014年实时暴雨洪涝过程监测中能直观诊断出一般性暴雨洪涝的起止时间和过程动态变化,但对局地性和间歇性发生的暴雨洪涝过程刻画不足。创建EP指数所需数据资料少、计算简便,可用于洪涝灾害历史排位、年景评价、灾情预评估、风险区划以及作物产量建模等。