资源型城市城镇化发展对我国城镇化水平的贡献性

为定量研究资源型城市城镇化水平及其对中国城镇化发展的贡献性,以全国126个地级市(仅限大陆地区)资源型城市为研究对象,分析改革开放以来资源型城市城镇化发展的基本情况,并籍此为基础研究资源型城市城镇化发展对我国城镇化发展的贡献。结果表明:1)四大区域资源型城市城镇化水平发展不平衡,东北地区城镇化率始终保持领先,但增长幅度最小,东部地区城镇化率增长最快,各地区年均增长率呈下降趋势,增速放缓;2)地级市资源型城市城镇化发展对我国城镇化发展的贡献度为0.48～0.90,其中0.79%资源型城市城镇化对我国城镇化贡献度为中,40.48%资源型城市城镇化对中国城镇化贡献度较高,58.73%资源型城市城镇化对我国城镇化贡献度高;3)类型上,均有超过各自总量50%的非金属、金属、煤炭和油气型资源型城市城镇化对我国城镇化的贡献度高,而森工型资源型城市城镇化对我国城镇化贡献度高的城市数量不到其总量的1/3;空间上,东和中部地区资源型城市城镇化对我国城镇化发展贡献度大于东北地区和西部地区。资源型城市城镇化推动了我国城镇化发展,但资源型城市的不同类型和区位,对我国城镇化的贡献度有差异。     

四川冬春季参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其成因

为深入认识四川冬春季参考作物蒸散量(ET₀)的变化特征,利用1980—2016年四川35个气象站的逐日气象观测资料,采用泰森多边形、气候倾向率和克里金空间插值等方法对其冬春季ET₀的时空变化特征进行分析,并通过敏感性和贡献率分析了ET₀的变化成因。结果表明:ET₀的年代际变化呈先降后增的趋势,空间上呈明显的西南高东部低的分布特征,且高值区范围持续扩大,低值区范围波动缩小。ET₀的年际变化呈上升趋势,春季ET₀气候倾向率和空间差异明显大于冬季,且ET₀高值区与低值区空间分布受海拔高度影响明显。ET₀的同一日多年平均值自初冬至初春逐渐上升,1月22日—5月2日仅有8 d的ET₀值低于多年日平均值,具有明显连续的高值时段。ET₀对日照时数的变化最敏感,其次是对相对湿度与平均气温,对三者均呈高敏感性。平均气温的正贡献率是引起ET₀变化的主导因子,其次是相对湿度。研究时段内平均气温的升高对ET₀的正效应和相对湿度的降低对ET₀的负效应,超过了日照时数减少对ET₀的减少效应,导致四川地区冬春季ET₀呈上升趋势。     

陕甘宁老区建立生态特区的必要性分析

本文从历史与现状方面分析了陕甘宁老区加强生态环境建设的必要性。阐述了陕甘宁老区历史上范围的变化及其对中国革命和经济建设的贡献。从多方面分析了它的自然条件 ,揭示了其自然环境的脆弱性。说明了该区经济建设取得的成就和存在的问题 ,揭示了其贫困落后的社会经济状况。提出了在该区建立生态特区以促进其生态环境建设的观点。     

Genetic diversity and historic introgression in German Angler and Red Dual Purpose cattle and possibilities to reverse introgression

Recovering native uniqueness has major importance for breeds with historic introgression. The aim of the study was to estimate population genetic parameters for two local red cattle breeds from Northern Germany and to study possibilities to reverse introgression. Genealogical information consisted of 90,783 individuals for German Angler and 187,255 individuals for Red Dual-Purpose cattle breed, with additional information on sex, born, breed, status, and conventional breeding values. It is concluded that the native genetic contribution could be included as an additional trait in the total merit index in order to recover a part of the native genetic background. Native contributions should be estimated in the long term from marker data in order to account for Mendelian sampling. The maintenance of a sufficient genetic diversity of native alleles can be achieved by an advanced OCS with appropriate constraints.     

基于贡献度随机森林模型的公司债信用风险实证分析

运用贡献度随机森林方法（CRF）方法探讨公司债财务指标比率与其违约率的关系.运用连续属性离散化方法（OB）进行财务指标最优降维；运用WOE变换进行模型变量约简.研究表明，CRF模型的分类性能显著优于其他模型，测试集评估总体正确率达90.47%，AUC统计量、AR比率及K-S值分别提升了2.6%、7.6%、4.38%，变量贡献度量化了各财务指标对违约率影响，为诠释随机森林预测机制提供了依据.     

遮穗和去颖下燕麦穗部特征变化和穗部光合贡献率估算

随着探索提高植物整体光合能力相关研究的不断开展，麦类作物穗部器官等植物非叶绿色器官光合潜力挖掘逐渐得到关注。本研究在成都平原秋播美达、贝勒、莫尼卡、摄政王、泰克和甜燕60等6个品种燕麦，设置遮穗、去颖2个试验处理，比较分析了各品种间穗部特征、穗部光合贡献率、颖片光合贡献率和茎光合物质转移率等差异。结果表明，燕麦穗部器官光合贡献率为28.56%～49.05%，其中甜燕60最高；6个品种燕麦的颖片光合贡献率为11.03%～36.88%，茎光合物质转移率为6.65%～35.81%。燕麦穗部器官对籽实增重表现了较高的光合贡献，当燕麦穗部器官光合受到限制时，燕麦单粒种子重和单穗种子数显著降低，尤其是影响双粒小穗数。     

淮安区水稻测土配方施肥配方校正与示范对比试验报告

为验证肥料配方的准确性,发挥配方肥料施用的最大效益。通过田间校验,示范对比测土配方施肥的增产效果,进一步验证并完善淮安区的肥料配方,优化测土配方施肥技术参数。     

青海省海东市不同等级降水和旱涝关系研究

青海省海东市是青海省重要的粮食生产基地,干旱直接影响着农业的有序发展。利用1961—2015年青海省海东市5个气象站逐日降水资料,笔者分析各级雨量和雨日及Z指数的变化趋势,并研究各级雨量和雨日对旱涝的影响。结果表明：（1）夏（冬）半年降水以小雨（雪）和中雨（雪）为主;夏半年小雨和大到暴雨（中雨）的雨量及雨日呈减小（增加）趋势,冬半年各级雨量及雨日均呈减小趋势;（2）夏、冬半年Z指数均表现为不显著的减小趋势;（3）采用偏相关系数和相对贡献率分析,夏半年中雨和大到暴雨雨量及雨日对Z指数有显著的影响,冬半年小雪的雨量和雨日对Z指数变化影响最大;（4）采用合成分析法的标准化值,在偏涝年,各级雨量和雨日基本都为正值,夏半年差异主要表现在大到暴雨和中雨雨量和雨日,而冬半年差异主要表现在小雪雨量和雨日;在偏旱年,各级降水雨量和雨日基本都为负值,夏半年差异主要表现在中雨雨量和雨日,冬半年差异主要表现在小雪和中雪雨量和雨日。     

基于农作制分区的1985—2015年中国小麦生产时空变化

Comparing spatio-temporal variation characteristics of China’s wheat production, yield, sown area and yield-area-contribution in different farming zones in the past 30 years could help improving wheat planting layout and adjusting planting structure. Concentration index, rate of change, moving of gravity and resolution of yield-area-contribution were used to analyze spatio-temporal changes of China’s wheat production and yield-area-contribution based on county wheat production statistics including sown area, production and yield from 1985 to 2015. The wheat sown area decreased obviously in Northeast farming region, Northwest farming region and South farming region and increased rapidly in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Yangtze Plain farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, the concentration indexes of Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region reached to 20.64%, 25.77%, and 21.65% respectively in 2015. Wheat production increased significantly by more than 48 milliontons in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, and nearly 8 million tons Yangtze Plain farming region but decreased by more than 2.6 million tons in Northeast farming region. In Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat production was concentrated in Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Yuxi Hill farming region. The average wheat yield continuously improved during the study period, Huang-Huai-Hai farming region and Northwest farming region had the yield increase up to 103.5 kg hm ^-2 and 92.9 kg hm ^-2 each year. Wheat yield in Yuxi Hill farming region, Fenwei Basin farming region and Haihe Plain farming region was relatively high in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region. The yield-reduced area was mainly caused by the decreasing of sown area, while the yield-area-contribution rate was different in yield-increased area. Yield-dominant counties were reduced, area-dominant counties were increased and yield-area-dominant counties were relatively steady. In production increased area, yield-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Huang-Huai-Hai Farming region, area-dominant and yield-area-dominant counties were the main types in Yangtze Plain farming region. Chinese wheat production was increasingly concentrated in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region which has high and rapid increase of wheat yield over the past three decades. Haihe Plain farming region, Huang-huai Plain farming region and Fenwei Basin farming region were the most concentrated areas in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region for wheat production during this period. Wheat yield and sown area jointly promoted the increase of wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai farming region, wheat sown area was the crucial factor to increase wheat production in Yangtze Plain farming region, especially in the north of Jiangsu, Anhui province and greater part of Xinjiang.     

伊春森林生态旅游产业对本地经济发展的贡献分析

结合伊春2001~2012年的旅游收入和国民生产总值,从直接经济贡献和间接经济贡献两个角度并利用一元线性回归模型分析了伊春森林生态旅游产业对经济发展的贡献。从显性角度分析得出森林生态旅游产业已经成为伊春的战略性支柱产业;从隐性角度分析表明伊春每l元的旅游收入能够导致伊春GDP增长约为4.273元人民币,而且发展呈上升的趋势。