Potential distribution and population trends of the smalltail shark Carcharhinus porosus inferred from species distribution models and historical catch data

1. Updated distribution ranges are crucial for conservation status assessments. Comprehensive analyses combining published literature and available data on historical catches and species distribution models (SDMs) are effective tools that could improve the prediction of more realistic scenarios for some species, especially those with limited information available and facing multiple threats.
2. The present study aimed at generating an updated distribution for the smalltail shark Carcharhinus porosus, one of the most threatened and understudied shark species of the western Atlantic Ocean. Estimates of the key areas for this species conservation based on the SDMs, and trends in catch probabilities throughout its distribution range are provided.
3. Four algorithms (BIOCLIM, Domain, Mahalanobis, and Maximum Entropy) were used to model the distribution of C. porosus and calculate its habitat suitability based on marine environmental variables. To assess historical catch probability trends, we built a generalized linear model from published and grey literature data. This analysis was used to estimate catch probability as an indication of population trends.
4. SDMs suggest that the northern coast of South America (NCSA) harbours the most suitable habitats for C. porosus in the world, which was expected given its historically high catch rate in this region. In addition, there was a continuously declining catch probability trend starting in the 1970s. However, the decline was smaller for the NCSA as compared with the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern South America coast.
5. Results indicate that the NCSA should be considered the currently most important area in the world for this species conservation. Furthermore, the lack of data throughout Central and South American marine regions hampers the evaluation of extinction risk throughout its updated distribution. Thus, research in these areas is urgently required for a more comprehensive conservation status assessment.

     

Temperature dependent growth and yield of pikeperch, Sander lucioperca, in Finnish lakes

Abstract  A non-linear growth model was used to evaluate the effects of temperature and age on annual length increments of pikeperch, Sander lucioperca (L.), in seven lakes in Finland. Length increments were derived by back-calculation using the Fraser–Lee method. Annual length increments increased from age 1 to age 3 and then decreased, while at the same time length increments and air temperature had positive correlation until age 12. Age- and size-structured yield per recruit models were used in two lakes to evaluate the effects of temperature and gillnet mesh size on pikeperch yield. In these two lakes maximum yield could be obtained with 60 and 70 mm (bar length) gill nets. In the second lake, as typically in Finland, 45–50 mm gill nets are the most frequently used. The use of larger mesh size gill nets would increase pikeperch yield from 685 to 1000 g per recruit based on the present mean temperature. In both lakes increase in temperatures would increase yield if mesh size is simultaneously increased. Higher pikeperch yield can be expected in the future because of climate warming.     

Population ecology and prey consumption by fathead minnows in prairie wetlands: importance of detritus and larval fish

Abstract –  The fathead minnow Pimephales promelas occurs in high densities in wetlands of the prairie pothole region (PPR) of North America, but food resources sustaining these populations are poorly known. We assessed population dynamics and prey consumption of fathead minnow populations in three PPR wetlands for 2 years. Fish density peaked at 107 fish per m² for all age classes combined. Larval and juvenile fish dominated these populations in terms of abundance and accounted for 83% of total prey consumption. Detritus dominated fish diets, representing 53%, 40% and 79% of diet mass for larval, juvenile and adult fish respectively. Detritus consumption was positively related to minnow density and negatively related to invertebrate abundance, but only for adult fish. Seasonal production:biomass ratios were unrelated to proportions of detritus in the diet for all ages of fish, indicating that detritus is an important food resource capable of meeting metabolic demands and sustaining fish growth in high-density populations. Detritus consumption may also weaken links between abundance of invertebrate prey and minnows, promoting dense fish populations with strong, consistent influences on wetland ecosystems.     

Geographical information system (GIS) environmental models for aquaculture development in Sinaloa State,Mexico

This paper describes the use of a geographical information system (GIS) to construct environmental models for land-based aquaculture development in the State of Sinaloa, Mexico. Based on the source data, submodels were created focusing on three different themes: general environmental issues, water resources and water quality. Models enabled multicriteria and multiobjective decision making concerning site selection and location. In assessing site considerations these general models identified wider resource management options and solved conflicts of land allocation and land use between aquaculture and agriculture. Smaller-scale, more specific models enabled more detailed studies on environmental issues.     

Remedies for pseudoreplication

Pseudoreplication is the failure of a statistical analysis to properly incorporate the true structure of randomness present in the data. It has been well documented and studied in the ecological literature but has received little attention in the fisheries literature. Avoiding pseudoreplication in analyses of fisheries data can be difficult due to the complexity of the statistical procedures required. However, recent developments in statistical methodology are decreasing the extent to which pseudoreplication has to be tolerated. Seven examples are given here, beginning with simple design-based remedies and progressing to more challenging examples including the model-based remedies of mixed-effects modelling, generalized linear mixed models, state-space models, and geostatistics.     

A model ensemble approach to determine the humus building efficiency of organic amendments in incubation experiments

Organic amendments are important to sustain soil organic matter (SOM) and soil functions in agricultural soils. Information about the contribution of organic amendments to SOM can be derived from incubation experiments. In this study, data from 72 incubated organic amendments including plant residues, digestates and manure were analysed. The incubation data was compiled from three experimental setups with varying incubation times, soils and incubation temperatures, in which CO₂ release was measured continuously. The analysis of the incubation data was performed with an approach relying on conceptual parts of C-TOOL, CCB, Century, ICBM, RothC and Yasso which are all well-approved first-order carbon models that differ in structure and abstraction level. All models are an approximation of reality, whereby each model differs in understanding of the processes involved in soil carbon dynamics. To accumulate the advantages from each model a model ensemble was performed for each substrate. With the ability of each carbon model to compute the distribution of carbon into specific SOM pools a new approach for evaluating organic amendments in terms of humus building efficiency is presented that, depends on the weighted model fit of each ensemble member. Depending on the organic substrate added to the soil, the time course of CO₂ release in the incubation studies was predicted with different accuracy by the individual model concepts. Averaging the output of the individual models leads to more robust prediction of SOM dynamics. The E_HUM value is easy to interpret and the results are in accordance with the literature.     

液力偶合器三维涡识别方法及流场时空演化

精细刻画液力偶合器内部非定常多尺度三维涡结构对于揭示液力偶合器流场时空演化规律与能量损耗机理具有重要意义。该研究基于计算流体动力学理论,采用应力混合涡湍流模型多尺度解析模拟制动工况下液力偶合器三维旋涡流场。通过3种不同的涡识别方法提取涡轮内部多尺度涡系结构,从空间重构效果、阈值选择范围及敏感性角度分析不同涡识别方法的适用性。依托粒子图像测速（Particle Image Velocimetry,PIV）流场试验验证数值模拟及涡结构辨识结果的准确性与可靠性。围绕三维涡结构特征解析结果和二维流场图谱信息,分析并揭示流道内部湍流的时空演化规律及能量损耗机理。结果表明：Q准则方法的阈值选择盲目性大,难以同时识别强涡与弱涡结构,丢失很多涡结构细节特征,无法准确预测三维涡空间连续性运动趋势;Ω方法能够在阈值范围为0.51～0.59内精确辨识弱涡结构,但涡系空间重构后涡的运动趋势感不强;ΩL方法对阈值不敏感,在阈值范围为0.51～0.67内该方法空间涡系重构效果最好,强涡、弱涡结构特征识别度高。制动工况下涡轮内部整体流动为逆时针大尺度环流,并伴有小尺度涡流等局部流动现象,与主流涡运动相同旋向的旋涡促进主流旋涡运动,相反旋向的旋涡阻碍主流旋涡运动,由于涡的撕裂、破碎、分离、碰撞、摩擦、挤压等作用,导致流体能量损失,以热能形式耗散。研究结果可为液力偶合器结构设计与优化提供理论与技术指导。     

梯田对黄土区降雨径流过程的影响及SCS-CN模型应用与改进

梯田改变了流域下垫面,对降雨径流过程势必产生影响,径流曲线模型（Soil Conservation Service Curve Number,SCS-CN）在中国黄土区,特别是梯田分布广泛流域的适用性仍存争议。为此,该研究以位于甘肃天水的罗玉沟流域为研究对象,利用梯田修建前后2个时段（1985-1990年、2000-2010年）的降雨径流实测资料,分析梯田修建对降雨-径流过程的影响,验证SCS-CN模型的适用性,进一步考虑梯田修建的影响针对不同降雨类型分别提出了基于降雨量和平均雨强的模型改进方法。结果表明：1）梯田修建对流域径流过程的影响与降雨强度关系密切。当雨强较小时,梯田显著削减流域洪峰和径流总量,削减幅度均在55%以上;而当降雨量和雨强较大时,梯田削减洪峰和径流总量效果并不显著。总体上,梯田修建后流域平均降雨径流系数显著减小至0.06,减小幅度约54%。2）基于最小二乘法优化与考虑前期土壤含水率修正的SCS-CN模型并不适用于梯田分布广泛流域的径流预报。引入降雨量和平均雨强改进后的模型模拟效果显著提高,此时流域暴雨量级以下和以上降雨事件的初损率分别为0.29和0.02。该研究基于降雨因子改进的模型在梯田分布广泛流域具有一定的适用性,可为流域产流计算及水土保持规划提供参考依据。     

南方丘陵区油茶气孔导度模型修正

为探求南方丘陵地区油茶叶片气孔导度最优响应模型,该研究于2020年和2021年对油茶叶片的气孔导度、净光合速率、CO2浓度等参数进行观测,运用9种不同组合的Jarvis模型以及2种不同CO2浓度（叶片CO2浓度和胞间CO2浓度）计算的Ball-Woodrow-Berry（BWB）模型和Ball-Berry-Leuning（BBL）模型对油茶叶片气孔导度进行模拟,并引入油茶叶片叶气温差、气孔内外CO2浓度差对Jarvis模型和BBL模型进行修正和比较。结果表明：去除土壤水分函数提高了Jarvis模型的模拟效果,说明在南方丘陵区利用Jarvis模型时可以忽略土壤水分这一因子的影响。Jarvis-8模型以及用叶片CO2浓度计算出的BWB和BBL模型对油茶气孔导度模拟效果较好。在三种经典模型中,BBL模型的相关系数最大（R2=0.76）,绝对值平均误差最小（0.015）,说明其对油茶气孔导度模拟的效果较好。在引入两种参数后,叶气温差对Jarvis-8模型和BBL模型的模拟效果有所提高,但不显著;气孔内外CO2浓度差对Jarvis-8模型无明显改变,但显著提高了BBL模型的精度,引入气孔内外CO2浓度差后的BBL-C模型相关系数从BBL模型的0.76提高到了0.95,模型斜率非常接近于1（1.004）,模拟结果贴近于实测的气孔导度值,很好地模拟了2020年（R2=0.92）和2021年（R2=0.95）油茶生长关键期的叶片气孔导度值以及不同场景下的油茶气孔导度日变化值。因此推荐引入气孔内外CO2浓度差的 BBL模型作为南方丘陵区油茶叶片气孔导度响应模型。研究结果可为南方丘陵区油茶气孔导度模型选取提供参考依据。