2008-2015年橡胶蜂蜜产量与气候的相关性分析

为了进一步发掘橡胶林区潜在经济价值,预测下一年橡胶泌蜜规律,试验采用连续8年记录转地到西双版纳傣族自治州采集橡胶蜜的蜂场收获蜂蜜情况,并以气象观测仪记录当时的气象变化的方法。表明进入橡胶场地的蜂群势变化不大[(13.450±0.113)脾,=0.854],但产量变化显著[(72.613±0.349)kg,<0.01]。气象观测表明气温8年内波动范围不大,而降雨量波动大,表现为2011年洪涝出现早,2014年干旱持续时间长。产量与日平均气温(相关系数r=0.337)有极显著的正相关性,与日降雨量(相关系数r=-0.269)及日最低气温(相关系数r=-0.483)呈极显著的负相关,与群势表现出轻微的负相关(相关系数r=-0.031)。说明持续的干旱和温暖湿热的气温及合理的群势能够增加橡胶蜜的产量,适宜的气候及大面积橡胶林区蕴含着巨大的养蜂潜力。     

基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测

基于中国820个气象站点数据、灰茶尺蠖已知地理分布资料和生物学数据,结合CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS软件模拟预测灰茶尺蠖在中国目前及未来的潜在分布范围,评估灰茶尺蠖的潜在分布范围及气候变暖对其分布的潜在影响。结果表明,灰茶尺蠖在中国目前的适生区主要分布在3°51′N~40°6′N,适生区面积占全国总面积的34.27%。中国大部分省份的气候条件均适合灰茶尺蠖种群生长。随着气候的变化,灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区面积总体增幅不大,但其组成变化较大。至2050年,预测灰茶尺蠖高度适生区面积占比达最大（22.23%）。相比各种能源之间的平衡情景（A1B）,较高能源需求情景（A2）下灰茶尺蠖在陕甘宁地区向内陆扩张更快。灰茶尺蠖在中国适生区分布广泛,应加强灰茶尺蠖预测预报,趁早采取防控措施,以保障茶叶优质安全生产。     

1961—2010年东北农作区春小麦需水量的时空变化特征

利用东北农作区58个气象站点1961—2010年的逐日气象数据,基于Simulation of Evapotranspiration of Applied Water(SIMETAW)模型分析气候变化背景下东北农作区春小麦生育期内作物需水量(Crop evapotranspiration,ETc)和灌溉需要量(Evapotranspiration of applied water,ETaw),以及典型站点春小麦的灌溉需求指数(Irrigation demand index,IDI)的时空变化特征。结果表明:近50年来,东北农作区日平均温度呈显著上升趋势,平均降水量下降趋势不明显,平均太阳辐射及作物蒸散量呈显著下降趋势。春小麦生育期作物需水量和灌溉需要量呈下降趋势,其分布均表现为西多东少。50年来春小麦作物生育期需水量下降主要集中于松辽及兴安岭南部地区,东部地区变化趋势不明显;生育期灌溉需要量下降集中于松辽及兴安岭地区,三江平原地区略有增加,长白山地区多年保持平稳。     

Mass balanced based LCA of a common carp-lettuce aquaponics system

An aquaponics system (AS) is an integrated system that combines a recirculating aquaculture system and a hydroponics system (HS). It is designed to recover nutrients released from fish and transfer them to plants to provide a system more environmentally-friendly than the two systems working separately. As a result, several AS are under development, but little information is available about their overall performances. The aim of this study was to assess nutrient-use efficiency and environmental impacts of an AS, specifically a common carp-lettuce AS located in a greenhouse. Nutrient budgets of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were calculated and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was performed for the AS and for a lettuce Individual Hydroponics System (IHS), similar to the HS of the AS, operating in the greenhouse at the same time. The experiment was performed over a 52-day cycle, which corresponds to the growing time required to harvest marketable lettuce. The nutrient budgets were well balanced, with 24.6% of the N unaccounted-for, most likely due to N2 gas emission, and 6.6% of the P unaccounted-for, most likely due to having underestimated the quantity of sediment. At the beginning of the experiment, N represented 55.9%, 37.1% and 0.1% of the total N input in the formulated feed, stocked fish and lettuce seedlings, respectively. At the end of the experiment, N represented 47.6% and 0.4% of the total N input in the harvested fish and lettuce, respectively. At the beginning of the experiment, P represented 56.94%, 40.20% and 0.03% of the total P input in the formulated feed, stocked fish and lettuce seedlings, respectively. At the end of the experiment, P represented 51.52% and 0.42% of the total P input in the harvested fish and lettuce, respectively. LCA clearly indicated two environmental impact hotspots: the origin of nutrients and energy use. One kg of lettuce growth in the AS clearly had lower environmental impacts than that in the IHS for climate change, acidification, eutrophication, land competition and cumulative energy demand; however, a decrease in water dependence was not observed. The indicator for net primary production use highlighted the dependence of the AS on natural resources, especially fish meal and fish oil. Compared to the use of chemical nutrients in the IHS, the use of nutrients from formulated feed in the AS decreased climate change impact but increased the use of natural resources.     

基于耦合协调度的大理河流域径流和输沙关系分析

深入研究流域水沙关系变化是解决黄河流域高质量发展关键问题的重要科学途径之一。自20世纪50年代以来,黄河中游地区实施了大规模的水土保持工程,径流和输沙显著减少,水沙关系发生变化。该研究利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了1960—2015年来大理河流域的径流输沙变化趋势,并构建基于耦合协调度理论和Pettitt检验方法的径流输沙关系变异诊断方法,识别大理河流域径流和输沙关系的突变点,并通过Copula方法进行验证。结果表明:1)大理河流域径流输沙在月尺度和年尺度呈现显著的下降趋势;2)大理河流域径流和输沙关系在1996年发生显著突变;3)径流输沙关系发生突变后,径流和输沙均明显减少,输沙的减少幅度比径流的减少幅度高29.19个百分点,径流对输沙贡献程度下降幅度为5.10%,单位径流的输沙能力降低;4)淤地坝建设和植被恢复是造成大理河流域水沙变化的主要因素,修建淤地坝和恢复植被对减少泥沙具有积极作用。研究成果可以为进一步深化理解大理河流域水沙关系变化以及水土流失治理提供依据。     

宁夏中部生态移民区土地利用时空变化分析

通过解译宁夏中部红寺堡区1989年、1999年、2006年、2012年TM遥感影像,获取该区域生态移民前后4期土地利用数据,对1989~2012年以来土地利用变化情况进行了分析。结果表明,各个时间段的土地利用变化差异性显著。1989~1999年,由于大规模的土地开荒和红寺堡灌区的建设,耕地面积持续增加,同时该区域开始有了水浇地,而林草面积相应减少;1999~2006年,由于退耕还林还草政策的实施,耕地中的旱地被逐渐退耕为草地或发展为水浇地,林草面积开始由减少转为增加,区域土地利用开始合理化;2006~2012年,随着生态移民工程和生态建设工程的成熟发展,林草覆盖面积进一步增加,水浇地面积继续稳步增加,而未利用地和旱地面积持续下降。研究结果为区域土地资源的合理利用及生态移民工程的进一步顺利开展提供可靠依据。     

基于GIS和气候-土地利用信息的西藏青稞种植适宜性区划

使用2009—2013年的CLDAS大气驱动场(V1.0)数据为气候数据源,结合影响西藏青稞种植的关键气候因子,确定生育期≥0℃的积温(T0)、最热月平均气温(Tmax)、生育期降水量(R)这3个气候因子作为西藏青稞种植区划指标,利用GIS技术进行西藏青稞种植气候适应性区划。为了得到既能满足气候需求又有耕地的实际可种植区域,本研究将土地资源信息与气候区划叠加。结果表明:青稞最适宜种植区域主要分布于雅江中游河谷2400~4100 m区域及昌都市的中部和南部,结果与事实相符。     

Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany

An important part of agricultural adaptation is the timing of crop sowing dates, affecting yields and the level of risk incurred during a particular season. Cold stress is especially relevant in maize, Zea mays L., so that the timing of planting in the spring is a tactical response to short‐term weather, but is also subject to strategic planning with regard to longer‐term climate. Both factors compare the potential implications of cold stress to the additional yield obtainable through earlier planting. New cultivars suited to growing conditions in Europe and generally increasing spring temperatures have enabled earlier planting, but it is still dependent on short‐term weather during the planting period. In the context of field‐level decision‐making, a panel regression is used to estimate the relationship between weekly local temperature and precipitation and planting dates at specific sites throughout Germany. Next, localised weather data and planting behaviour are linked to yields at the district (Landkreis) level to show the effects of planting date on yield. Based on these relationships optimal planting dates are explored with some associated costs and benefits. Results show a trend towards earlier planting that follows observed increasing spring temperatures and the availability of more cold‐tolerant cultivars but this advance is buffered by the increasing severity of minimum temperatures during a critical period. Earlier planting potentially increases yield but this is offset by additional management costs and risk. A robust and simple depiction of farmer behaviour in climatic, technological and economic context can help to understand trends in crop management and productivity that effect agricultural landscapes.     

Managing soil quality for humanity and the planet

Rather than a human-centric, the basic strategy of achieving Sustainable Development Goals must be focused on restoring and sustaining planetary processes. The urgency of meeting the demands of the humanity must be reconciled with the necessity of enhancing the environment. Increasing and restoring soil organic matter content of the degraded and depleted soils is critical to strengthening planetary processes.