黄土高原人工草地的土壤水分动态及水土保持效益研究

通过９年观测，黄土高原人工草地土壤水分的季节性变化可划分为三个阶段，在此基础上模拟不同人工草地土壤水分的变化规律；随着牧草生育期的延长至第９年，人工草地土壤水分恢复程度逐渐减弱；沙打旺生存能力极强，能够高效地利用深层土壤贮水；用数学模型可以模拟不同人工草地的水土流失，将植被因子引入水土流失方程，可以定量描述对水土流失的影响；反映植被、土壤等因子与水土流失关系的复合因子Ａ￣１值，基本上代表不同人工草地水土流失状况。     

乌兰布和沙漠流动沙丘不同部位水分动态研究

通过对乌兰布和沙漠流动沙丘的不同部位沙土含水量的测定研究，结果表明：（1）乌兰布和沙漠流动沙丘3个不同部位的水分垂直变化趋势是一致的，0～60cm含水量变化幅度大，60～100cm变化幅度小，含水量最大值出现在20～60CITI，降雨主要影响60cm以上的沙土水分；（2）3种部位在时间变化上都表现为4～5月含水量最小，从6月开始含水量升高；（3）迎风坡含水量较其他部位大0．65％～0．9％，较背风坡大1．8％～2．5％，其他部位较背风坡大1％～1．7％，且3种地貌部位20～60cm处较80cm和100cm处有较大差异，同时迎风坡的变化幅度最大。     

气候变化对陇东塬区冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响

分析西峰农业气象试验站冬小麦生育期的观测资料表明,气候变暖使陇东塬区冬小麦全生育期天数缩短,主要是越冬期天数缩短,而冬小麦实际生长的天数并未缩短;气候变暖使冬小麦播种期推迟,成熟期提前,从而使麦田的休闲期延长,延长了复种作物的生长期,为提高气候资源的利用率和单位面积的产量提供了保证。气候变化对冬小麦气候产量的影响具有明显的周期性。     

基于GIS与马尔可夫模型的渭河盆地景观动态变化研究

基于1988年与2003年两期TM影像,综合遥感与GIS技术以及景观生态学理论,深入分析了渭河盆地景观变化的数量和空间特征以及由此所引起的一系列生态环境效应,主要表现在:耕地、园地与城镇建设用地面积显著增加,林地、水体和未利用地面积呈减少趋势,城镇建设用地的增加是以侵占大量农田为代价的,而园地与耕地的增加则主要是通过开荒的方式。景观形状趋于复杂,破碎度降低,异质性下降,景观类型有向单一化或非均衡化方向发展的趋势,表明人类的开发活动增强,这样必然导致景观稳定性下降,因而降低了景观抗干扰的能力。最后采用马尔可夫模型对景观的变化趋势进行了预测。     

中国土地沙漠化对大气CO_2含量的影响

本文根据我国不同地区沙漠化类型的面积、土壤有机碳的含量及沙漠化的正逆转速率，计算了我国沙漠化土地中有机碳的变动。结果表明，我国沙漠化土地０－５０ｃｍ土层中有机碳的，总贮量为７５３．１４３Ｍｔ，近４０年来因土地沙漠化而释放到大气中的ＣＯ２，总量达１７３．２８６Ｍｔ，而逆转过程中固定的ＣＯ２量为５９．１２４Ｍｔ碳，所以，近４０年来我国沙漠化土地净释放到大气中的ＣＯ２量为１２４．４７５Ｍｔ碳，占全球温带和寒带土地每年释放ＣＯ２量１３３Ｍｔ碳的９３．５％。     

Fire-induced changes in northern Patagonian landscapes

In northern Patagonia, Argentina we quantify changes in fire frequency along a gradient from mesic Nothofagus dombeyi forest to xeric woodlands of Austrocedrus chilensis at the steppe ecotone, and we examine patterns of vegetation change coincident with the changes in fire regimes across a range of spatial scales. At a regional scale changes in land cover types are documented by comparing 1:250000 scale cover type maps from 1913 and 1985. Changes in landscape structure are analyzed by comparing vegetation patterns on 1:24000 scale aerial photographs taken in 1940 and 1970. Fire frequency peaked in the late nineteenth-century due to widespread burning and clearing of forests by European settlers late in the century. Subsequently, fire frequency declined dramatically about 1910 due to the cessation of intentional fires and has remained low due to increasingly effective fire exclusion. At a regional scale there has been a dramatic increase during the twentieth century in the proportion of forest cover relative to areas mapped as recent burns or shrublands in 1913. Remnant forest patches that survived the widespread late-nineteenth century burning have coalesced to form more continuous forest covers, and formerly continuous areas of shrublands have become dissected by forest. Under reduced fire frequency there has been a shift in dominance from short-lived resprouting species (mostly shrubs) towards longer-lived species and obligate seed-dispersers such as Austrocedrus chilensis and Nothofagus dombeyi. Due to limited seed dispersal of these tree species, the spatial configuration of remnant forest patches plays a key role in subsequent changes in landscape pattern.     

Changes in anthropogenic impervious surfaces,precipitation and daily streamflow discharge: a historical perspective in a mid-atlantic subwatershed

Aerial photography provides a historical vehicle for determining long-term urban landscape change and, with concurrent daily streamflow and precipitation records, allows the historical relationship of anthropogenic impervious surfaces and streamflow to be explored. Anthropogenic impervious surface area in the upper Accotink Creek subwatershed (near Annandala, Virginia, USA) was mapped from six dates of rectified historical aerial photography ranging from 1949 to 1994. Results show that anthropogenic impervious surface area has grown from approximately 3% in 1949 to 33% in 1994. Coincident to this period, analysis of historical mean daily streamflow shows a statistically significant increase in the streamflow discharge response (per meter of precipitation) associated with normal and extreme daily precipitation levels. Significant changes were also observed in the frequency of daily streamflow discharge at given volumes above and below the historical daily mean. Simultaneously, the historical magnitude, frequency and pattern of precipitation values 0 mm, 6.0 mm and 35.0 mm show either no statistically significant change or influence on streamflow. Historical changes in streamflow in this basin appear to be related to increases in anthropogenic impervious surface cover. Historical aerial photography is a viable tool for revealing long-term landscape and ecosystem relationships, and allows landscape investigations to extend beyond the temporal and spatial constraints of historical satellite remote sensing data.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

兴海县气候变化对畜牧业发展的影响及对策

本文通过对兴海县气温、降水等气象观测资料的分析,得出气候变化对畜牧业生产造成的影响,认为当前制约兴海县畜牧业可持续发展的主要因素是气候变化,并针对气候变化的制约条件提出了草地可持续发展对策。     

西北地区降水特征及变化规律分析

根据我国西北地区降水气候特征研究状况,利用较具代表性的我国西北地区北亚热带、温带驻防的25个空军机场气象台站1970~2000年历年逐时降水资料,从降水量、降水强度、降水时间、降水频率等方面,以气候区划区为区域分析单位,分析了西北地区的降水变化规律和特征。结果表明:西北地区北亚热带、温带年际降水量有从东南和西北两侧向中部明显减少的分布格局。30 a间中温带干旱区东部及其以东地区的降水量呈下降趋势,以西则基本呈上升趋势。降水强度基本表现为上升趋势,强度呈东南大、西北小分布,且以北亚热带湿润区和南温带干旱区南疆区上升速率表现最大。降水时间呈现减少趋势,其分布特点与降水量分布基本上一致,由东南和西北两侧向中间明显减少。近30 a来降水量东降西升,降水小时数、降水频率呈下降趋势,但小时雨强和中雨以上强度降水比重一直呈上升趋势,降水以短时、量大为特征出现的机率在增加,降水的有效利用难度在加剧,这种特征东部比西部要明显得多。青藏高原东侧降水量和降水小时数都处于下降趋势,雨强呈上升趋势,该地区干旱趋势在加剧。但在高原东北侧、北侧这种趋势表现相对要弱一些。     

陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究

以实地调查和统计资料,分析了陕西省1949-2003年55 a间耕地面积变化的总体趋势.运用主成分分析方法定量分析了耕地面积变化的驱动因子,结果表明:社会-经济-科技综合作用、退耕还林等2大类因素是影响耕地面积变化的2个主成分.通过建立多元回归模型,对陕西省2010年和2015年的耕地面积进行了预测.研究结果将为合理利用和保护耕地,为干旱地区农业可持续发展提供科学依据.