Evaluation of uncalibrated preferential flow models against data for isoproturon movement to drains through a heavy clay soil

The uncalibrated predictive ability of four preferential flow models (CRACK‐NP, MACRO/MACRO_DB, PLM, SWAT) has been evaluated against point rates of drainflow and associated concentrations of isoproturon from a highly structured and heterogeneous clay soil in the south of England. Data were available for four plots for a number of storm events in each of three successive growing seasons. The mechanistic models CRACK‐NP and MACRO generally gave reasonable estimates of drainflow over the three seasons, but under‐estimated concentrations of isoproturon over a prolonged period in the first season and over‐estimated them in the two remaining seasons. CRACK‐NP simulated maximum concentrations of isoproturon over the first two events of each of the three seasons of 156, 527 and 24.4 µg litre^?1, respectively, and matched the observed data (465, 65.1 and 0.65 µg litre^?1) slightly better than MACRO (69.1, 566 and 58.5 µg litre^?1). Automatic selection of parameters from soils information within MACRO_DB reduced the emphasis on preferential flow relative to the stand‐alone version of MACRO. This gave a poor simulation of isoproturon breakthrough and simulated maximum concentrations were 0, 50.1 and 35.1 µg litre^?1, respectively. The capacity model PLM gave the best overall simulation of total drainflow for the first two events in each season, but over‐estimated concentrations of isoproturon (967, 808 and 51.3 µg litre^?1). The simple model SWAT represented total drainflow reasonably well and gave the best simulation of maximum isoproturon concentrations (140, 80.2 and 8.2 µg litre^?1). There was no clear advantage here in using the mechanistic models rather than the simpler models. None of the models tested was able to simulate consistently the data set, and uncalibrated modelling cannot be recommended for such artificially drained heavy clay soils. © 2001 Society of Chemical Industry     

关于随机小修费用模型的最优维修策略

采用变分方法考察了具有随机小费用的可修模型的维修策略问题，推导出了依赖年龄的最倨费用界维修策略所满足的微分方程及其边界条件。从而得到了费用界策略形式下的最优。对于包含预防性更换的可修模型也同样得到了费用界－预更换策略形式下的最优解。     

猪链球菌多价灭活疫苗对实验小鼠免疫效果的研究

临床分离的猪链球菌经随机扩增多态性DNA分析，挑选出4株毒力强。免疫原性好且遗传距离较远的猪链球菌作为疫苗株，研制出猪链球菌病氢氧化铝胶多价灭活疫苗。该疫苗对实验小鼠安全性好，无不良反应。实验室的小鼠免疫效力试验证实该苗的保护率为100％，优于单价灭活疫苗和猪链球菌病活疫苗。     

高校校内英语成绩测试信度和效度的研究——从测试学角度谈高校英语教学改革

测试对英语教学起到重要的后效反拔作用。以四级测试为指挥棒的高校校内英语成绩测试在信度和效度上均存在一定的缺陷，直接影响教学质量的提高及学生实际使用英语的能力。高校英语教师要依据现代测试学理论推进高校英语教学改革。     

结构可靠度的一种计算方法

提出一种推广一次二阶矩法的算法，解决了关于相关正态随机向量的非线性极限状态方程下结构可靠度计算问题，在理论上论证了方法的可行性，实例计算表明了方法的有效性。     

刀具的可靠性及其分析

讨论了刀具寿命的失效机理，为提高刀具的可靠性提供理论依据。     

远程数据采集系统的可靠性仿真研究

利用以单片机为核心的远程数据采集系统为研究对象,介绍系统的工作原理,并对该系统的失效模式进行了分析,应用故障树分析法建立系统的仿真模型,并利用Monte Carlo方法进行可靠性仿真,得到系统的可靠度、平均故障间隔时间、基本部件模式重要度等可靠性指标;利用仿真结果,对系统的失效情况进行分析,得到的研究结论为提高远程数据采集系统的可靠性、维修性和维修策略提供参考依据。     

Genomic best linear unbiased prediction method reflecting the degree of linkage disequilibrium

The degree of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers differs depending on the location of the genome; this difference biases genetic evaluation by genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP). To correct this bias, we used three GBLUP methods reflecting the degree of LD (GBLUP‐LD). In the three GBLUP‐LD methods, genomic relationship matrices were conducted from single nucleotide polymorphism markers weighted according to local LD levels. The predictive abilities of GBLUP‐LD were investigated by estimating variance components and assessing the accuracies of estimated breeding values using simulation data. When quantitative trait loci (QTL) were located at weak LD regions, the predictive abilities of the three GBLUP‐LD methods were superior to those of GBLUP and Bayesian lasso except when the number of QTL was small. In particular, the superiority of GBLUP‐LD increased with decreasing trait heritability. The rates of QTL at weak LD regions would increase when selection by GBLUP continues; this consequently decreases the predictive ability of GBLUP. Thus, the GBLUP‐LD could be applicable for populations selected by GBLUP for a long time. However, if QTL were located at strong LD regions, the accuracies of three GBLUP‐LD methods were lower than GBLUP and Bayesian lasso.     

扰动下铡草机切碎辊负荷控制器设计与试验

为提高铡草机切碎作业的控制性能、作业质量及减小能耗,基于线性预测控制并结合铡草机切碎作业特点建立目标函数,由切碎运动学误差模型推导采样周期以解决控制鲁棒性,切碎动力学模型推导控制时域及预测时域以提高控制响应性,设计了铡草机切碎辊负荷控制器。Simulink仿真表明：经计算和回归优化选出的预测参数组采样周期、预测时域、控制时域为0.8、15、2 s时,其控制精度及鲁棒性最好、作业能力最大、对扰动的响应速度最快、抑制能力最强及能耗(9.27×10⁶ J)最小。现场试验结果表明：该优化预测参数组模型控制器,能够对铡草机切碎负荷有效跟踪控制,产品质量符合标准要求,同时实现了铡草机作业能力的提高,使系统控制响应更迅速,生产效率更高和单位作业能耗(1.382×10⁷ J)更小。该控制器参数模型建立方法为类属饲草作物收获机控制系统的设计提供了参考。     

小型收割机切割器可靠性测试平台研究

切割器作为小型收割机大概率故障的作业部件,其传统可靠性测试方式受作业季节、田间地形及多变负载等因素的影响,致使其测试周期长且测试数据收集难度大,给后续切割器改良设计及小型收割机整机优化设计造成很大的困难。基于此,创新性地提出一种螺旋绞龙式供料系统,结合模拟田间地形差异(含收获机械自身振动)的振动台及为不同切割器驱动的动力输出装置,构建实验室条件下的小型收割机切割器可靠性测试实物仿真实验平台。选取小型收割机(型号:1WG6.3-110FC-Z)的切割器为被测对象,将其在平台上进行24 h连续测试,测试结果表明:测试样机其有效度达95.62%。尽管模拟可靠性测试时间较短,但仍在测试过程中,暴露了收割机的某些故障,这些故障均符合JB/T 6287规定的切割器故障描述,因此,该小型收割机切割器可靠性测试平台能够在一定程度上模拟切割器田间作业的相关条件,能够在某些情况下替代切割器的田间现场可靠性测试。