Neutral models for testing landscape hypotheses

Neutral landscape models were originally developed to test the hypothesis that human-induced fragmentation produces patterns distinctly different from those associated with random processes. Other uses for neutral models have become apparent, including the development and testing of landscape metrics to characterize landscape pattern. Although metric development proved to be significant, the focus on metrics obscured the need for iterative hypothesis testing fundamental to the advancement of the discipline. We present here an example of an alternative neutral model and hypothesis designed to relate the process of landscape change to observed landscape patterns. The methods and program, QRULE, are described and options for statistical testing outlined. The results show that human fragmentation of landscapes results in a non-random association of land-cover types that can be describe by simple statistical methods. Options for additional landscape studies are discussed and access to QRULE described in the hope that these methods will be employed to advance our understanding of the processes that affect the structure and function in human dominated landscapes.     

Testing assumptions of cost surface analysis—a tool for invasive species management

Applied ecology could benefit from new tools that identify potential movement pathways of invasive species, particularly where data are sparse. Cost surface analysis (CSA) estimates the permeability (friction) across a landscape and can be applied to dispersal modelling. Increasingly used in a diversity of applications, several fundamental assumptions that might influence the outputs of CSA (cost surfaces and least-cost pathways) have yet to be systematically examined. Thus, we explore two issues: the presumed relationship between habitat preferences and dispersal behaviour as well as the degree of landscape fragmentation through which an organism moves by modelling a total of 18 sensitivity and dispersal scenarios. We explored the effect of fragmentation by altering the friction values (generally assigned using expert opinion) associated with patch and linear features. We compared these sensitivity scenarios in two sites that differed in fragmentation. We also used eastern grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) as an example invading species and compared diffusion models and two contrasting cost surface dispersal scenarios. The diffusion model underestimated spread because squirrels did not move randomly through the landscape. Despite contrasting assumptions regarding dispersal behaviour, the two cost surfaces were strikingly similar while the least-cost paths differed. Furthermore, while the cost surfaces were insensitive to changes in friction values for linear features, they were sensitive to assumptions made for patch features. Our results suggest that movement in fragmented landscapes may be more sensitive to assumptions regarding friction values than contiguous landscapes. Thus, the reliability of CSA may depend not only on the range of friction values used for patches but also the degree of contiguity in the landscape.     

应用草坪生态系统于城市生态建设的思考

通过对作为生态城市的重要子系统--草坪生态系统的含义及其生态效益的认识,提出一些有利城市生态建设的种草新模式,并对应用草坪生态系统于城市生态建设过程中存在的一些问题进行探讨.     

不同退耕模式林草初夏小气候效应

通过对安塞县几种不同类型退耕还林还草模式,如混交林、人工灌木林、野生灌木林及林中革地进行了小气候观测,分析了不同退耕模式林草配置下的主要小气候特征,采用平行对比观测法定点定时观测了空气温湿度,土壤温度,水面蒸发并与对照裸地进行了对比.结果表明4种不同退耕模式林草配置在6月高温时期能显著降低空气温度和地表温度的日均值,提高空气湿度和土壤湿度,减少水面蒸发等,具有明显的调节功能.4种不同退耕模式日平均空气温度变化呈不对称的单峰曲线,较对照裸地可以降低0.41℃～1.2℃;0～20 cm各深度的土壤温度基本都是混交林＜人工灌木林＜野生灌木林＜林中草地＜对照裸地,混交林内地面最高温度为34.78℃,明显比对照裸地42.54℃低;空气相对湿度日动态呈"U"型变化,其中对照裸地相对温度日均值最低,混交林日均值最大,为55.2%,比对照裸地高3.95%;水面蒸发量为裸地最大,混交林及灌木林能有效减少水面蒸发,减少量较对照裸地可达50.54%和55.20%.     

基于时间维度的旅游环境承载力动态研究

旅游环境承载力是描述旅游环境系统能够承受的旅游活动强度的概念,是建立在微观研究基础上服务于旅游区规划管理的重要工具。合理、科学的构建旅游环境承载力动态模型,对维护旅游业的可持续发展有着重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文首先分析了旅游环境承载力的内涵;再次,根据旅游业发展的季节性特征,运用动态改进层次分析法确定不同阶段的权重,遵循从分量承载力计量到综合承载力计量的步骤构建旅游环境承载力的动态模型;最后,为了反映旅游环境承载力的利用状况,增强实用性,对旅游环境承载率进行了研究,并以南戴河国际娱乐中心旅游区为例进行了实证分析。     

Plants,small mammals,and the hierarchical landscape classifications of Patagonia

Assemblages of plants were studied at 14 sites in northern Patagonia corresponding to localities at which we (Monjeau et al. 1997) earlier studied the relationship between small mammal assemblages and landscape classifications. This allowed us to test predictions that both plants and small mammals correspond to the more inclusive hierarchical landscape divisions but that plants track better than small mammals the less inclusive divisions. Species presence or absence of plants at each locality was used in a series of multivariate analyses and compared by correlation analysis with those generated from small mammal species data. Assemblages of both plants and small mammals corresponded to the upper divisions, which are based on climatic and geomorphological features, but small mammal assemblages did not correspond to the lower divisions of the landscape classifications. Three factors are considered as explanations for the observed differences between plants and small mammals: a) small mammal habitat is determined more by plant growth form than by plant species; b) trophic level differences between the two groups; and c) species pool size affects the resolution of microhabitat correspondence. Our data indicate that both plant assemblages and small mammal assemblages respond to climatic and geomorphological features, which is in contrast to the paradigm that mammal assemblages simply follow plant assemblages. We also attempted to reconcile classification systems in Patagonia by proposing a nomenclatural system based on a hierarchical classification. In the system proposed, ecoregion is the lowest division small mammal assemblages can recognize in Patagonia. Finally, we conclude that the hierarchical nature of landscapes based on a holistic view of environments reflects real entities that are not just the perceptions of landscape ecologists.     

Predicting non‐native fish dispersal under conditions of climate change: case study in England of dispersal and establishment of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus in a floodplain pond

Predictions of future climate change include shifts in patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration and water run‐off, resulting in increased periods of drought as well as variability and intensity of rainfall events. In the United Kingdom, the non‐native North American sunfish, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus (L.), is expected to benefit from these changes. We examine how hydrological variability induced by predicted changes in climate will affect the dispersal and spread of pumpkinseed in England by: (i) determining the relationship between discharge regime and pumpkinseed propagule pressure; (ii) examining a newly‐established pumpkinseed population following a flood event in 2007; and (iii) comparing the growth and life‐history traits of this new population with fish collected from the source population to demonstrate how the pumpkinseed's life‐history plasticity contributes to its success as a coloniser. Using Bayesian modelling, we determined that the number of pumpkinseed escapees is likely to increase with increasing discharge. The newly‐established pumpkinseed population showed fast juvenile growth, early age at maturity and small size at maturity. These traits differed significantly from the source population, specifically total length (TL) means at ages 1 and 2 were significantly greater in the new population, whereas TL at age 4 was significantly greater in the source population, and a significantly higher proportion of mature females were found at smaller size classes in the newly established pumpkinseed population. This study demonstrates the potential link between hydrological variability (current and future) and the dispersal of non‐native pumpkinseed, leading to the establishment of new populations.     

变量筛选方法对郁闭度遥感估测模型的影响比较

比较基于偏最小二乘回归的Bootstrap方法与传统的平均残差平方和(RMSq)准则所选变量建立模型的精度差别.结果表明:Bootstrap方法是一种更优秀的变量筛选方法,比RMSq方法精度提高约5%;而且它不受变量多带来的运算困难的限制,更便于实际应用.     

Modelling of soil nutrient budgets: an assessment of agricultural sustainability in Nepal

Abstract. Sustaining soil fertility under agricultural intensification and expansion onto marginal lands is a significant challenge in the Nepalese Middle Mountains. In a detailed watershed study it was shown that the overall soil fertility is poor, forest soils display the poorest conditions as a result of biomass removal, and sustaining agriculture is questionable due to the transformation from traditional to multiple cropping systems. Parent material is a significant factor influencing low phosphorus status while insufficient inputs create deficiencies in total carbon, nitrogen and bases. A nutrient budget model was developed to assess inputs, redistribution and losses relative to soil fertility. Yield, input and management data obtained from farm interviews, and soil analysis data were used in the calculation of nutrient budgets. Results from modelling indicate declining soil fertility under rainfed agriculture, forest and rangelands, and marginal conditions under irrigated agriculture subject to intensive cultivation. Nutrient deficits were relatively low for irrigated rice-wheat systems, which benefit from nutrient inputs via sediments and irrigation waters, but the introduction of triple cropping showed greater deficits. Nutrient balances were most critical under rainfed maize production where 94% of the farms were in deficit. Current shortages of organic matter make elimination of nutrient deficits problematic but improvement of composting, biological N-fixation and fertilizer efficiency and reducing erosion were found to be potential options.     

基于空间自相关构建树木生长模型

2004—2008年，在日本九州地区宫崎县田野天然次生林内设置的一块100 m×100 m固定标准地中，通过每木调查，测量了固定标准地内树木的种类、空间位置、生长等数据。为了便于理解，以固定标准地中优势树种蚊母树为主要研究对象，在考虑周边所有树木的影响的同时，利用贝叶斯统计方法分析了空间自相关及树木间的对称竞争、非对称竞争对树木生长过程的影响，并比较了忽略空间自相关的情况。结果表明:在构建研究对象树种的生长模型时，树木个体间的竞争是不可缺少的参数，尤其是个体间的对称竞争。在利用空间自相关参数建模时，最终模型的决定系数R2＝0.83；而忽略空间自相关参数的模型，其决定系数R2＝0.74。通过其他主要树种的分析也表明了导入空间自相关参数的优越性，因此可以认为，考虑空间自相关的随机效应模型能更精确地预测树木的生长。本研究所采用的空间自相关模型不仅可以利用树木个体的分布信息推测其生态学特征，还为树木生长模拟提供了理论与方法上的借鉴。