Predicting regeneration establishment in Norway spruce plantations using a multivariate multilevel model

This study predicts the regeneration establishment on 3-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) plantations in southern Finland using regeneration survey data. Regeneration establishment was described by seven response variables: number of planted spruces, natural Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), natural spruces, natural seed-origin birches (Betula pubescens Ehrh. and B. pendula Roth.) and other broadleaves (i.e. sprout-origin birches and other broadleaves than birch), as well as height of crop-tree spruce and dominant height of broadleaves. Due to the multivariate (several responses for each plot) and multilevel (plot, stand, municipality, forest centre) structure, regeneration establishment was modelled by fitting a multivariate multilevel model with explanatory variables such as temperature sum, site fertility, soil quality and method of site preparation. In the model, the numbers of tree seedlings were modelled using over-dispersed Poisson distributed equations, and the tree heights were modelled using normally distributed linear equations. The estimated fixed and random parameters of the equations were logical, and there was no serious bias in predicting the regeneration establishment in the independent test data set. This modelling approach can be used to predict the regeneration establishment stochastically by taking into account the large unexplained variation in regeneration models.     

Annualized diameter and height growth equations for Pacific Northwest plantation-grown Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder

Simulating the influence of intensive management and annual weather fluctuations on tree growth requires a shorter time step than currently employed by most regional growth models. High-quality data sets are available for several plantation species in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States, but the growth periods ranged from 2 to 12 years in length. Measurement periods of varying length complicate efforts to fit growth models because observed growth rates must be interpolated to a common length growth period or those growth periods longer or shorter than the desired model time step must be discarded. A variation of the iterative technique suggested by Cao [Cao, Q.V., 2000. Prediction of annual diameter growth and survival for individual trees from periodic measurements. Forest Sci. 46, 127–131] was applied to estimate annualized diameter and height growth equations for pure plantations of Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and red alder. Using this technique, fits were significantly improved for all three species by embedding a multi-level nonlinear mixed-effects framework (likelihood ratio test: p < 0.0001). The final models were consistent with expected biological behavior of diameter and height growth over tree, stand, and site variables. The random effects showed some correlation with key physiographic variables such as slope and aspect for Douglas-fir and red alder, but these relationships were not observed for western hemlock. Further, the random effects were more correlated with physiographic variables than actual climate or soils information. Long-term simulations (12–16 years) on an independent dataset using these annualized equations showed that the multi-level mixed effects models were more accurate and precise than those fitted without random effects as mean square error (MSE) was reduced by 13 and 21% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. The level of prediction error was also smaller than an existing similar growth model with a longer time step (ORGANON v8) as the annualized equations reduced MSE by 17 and 38% for diameter and height growth prediction, respectively. These models will prove to be quite useful for understanding the interaction of weather and silviculture in the Pacific Northwest and refining the precision of future growth model projections.     

Modelling cork oak production in Portugal

The layout of 32 permanent plots in the most important cork production regions of Portugal and the measurement of the most representative tree parameters were performed for statistically sound cork weight modelling. The establishment of cork weight equations is presented for the different cork oak study areas considered alone or grouped according to the most representative tree parameters. For the presented cork weight models was chosen independent variable the total stripping surface (artmax). For the selection criteria five statistic were used, including PRESS, APRESS and Mallows's statistic. The crossvalidation of the best classified models was performed and to discuss the importance of the “study area” factor, a regression analysis with “dummy” variables was performed.     

海南岛几种优势树种构筑型的研究

对海南 9种优势树种构筑型进行研究 ,通过对树木分枝方式和发芽方式的细致观察和描述 ,发现有 1种属Massart型 ,1种属Troll型 ,7种属Rauh型。对这 9种树木的构筑型特征与国外的研究进行了比较 ,确定了构筑模式与属及发芽模式与属之间的关系。     

Signals of summer drought in crown condition data from the German Level I network

Crown transparency estimates of Scots pine, Norway spruce, common beech, pedunculate and sessile oak, annually surveyed between 1990 and 2004 within a grid over Germany, provide a suitable response variable to study drought effects on forest trees. Major climatic factors, available on a monthly basis as plot-specifically interpolated values and parameters of site and stand conditions, biotic and other relevant factors were used as predictors in different cross- and length-sectional, and longitudinal models. Stand age is a considerable and most constant driver of crown transparency in all species. Pine, spruce and beech responded—mainly with a delay of 1 year—with some foliar loss in areas where there was a surplus of temperature after the generally hot and dry summer of 2003. Parallel time-series analyses delivered species-specific geographic large-scale patterns with delayed or recent precipitation deficits or temperature surpluses. Even if beech is partly responding in current years with leaf loss towards precipitation surpluses, defoliation is especially high 1 year after hot summers, partly a result of high seed sets after such summers. Crown condition of oak responds in dry and warm areas according to the drought stress hypothesis, however, in cool and wet mountainous ranges oak responds after wet summers with higher defoliation. Longitudinal approaches revealed for all 4-tree species significant relationships between crown condition and deviations from the long-term means of temperature, precipitation but also global radiation and wind speed. Results do not always match the drought stress hypothesis, however, this is not to expect considering the heterogeneous site, stand and climatic conditions across Germany. Complex interactions of climatic and biotic factors also impede simple relationships. Soil-related clusters reveal higher sensitivity of spruce and beech towards climatic drought factors on more acid soils with thin humus layers. Also clusters constructed from plot-specific courses of defoliation reveal groups with rather closer relationships like a group of pine plots in the Oberpfalz, which seems to be especially sensitive to summer drought.     

高分辨率遥感图像均值调整法分割技术研究

遥感图像分割是将以像元为基础的图像转化为以对象为基础的过程,因此,遥感图像分割是遥感图像高级分析的基础.对于中、低分辨率遥感图像来说,单个像元的面积较大,且混合像元现象严重,图像分割会产生较大的误差.高分辨率遥感图像单个像元的面积较小,分割后图像上单个对象内含若干像元,便于分析和提取信息.以高分辨率遥感图像Q u ickB ird和IKONO S为研究对象,采用均值调整法对图像进行分割和精度检验.结果表明:采用均值调整法进行高分辨率遥感图像分割具有较好的效果,图像分割的速度和精度均较高.     

One hundred years of population ecology: Successes,failures and the road ahead

Population ecology is the most mature of the three subdisciplines of ecology partly because it has a solid mathematical foundation and partly because it can address the primary questions of distribution and abundance with experimental protocols. Yet there is much left to do to integrate our population knowledge into community and ecosystem ecology to help address the global issues of food security and the conservation of biodiversity. Many different approaches are now being developed to bring about this integration and much more research will be necessary to decide which if any will be most useful in achieving our goals of explaining the changes we see in the distribution and abundance of animals and plants. Food web ecology would appear to be the best approach at present because it uses the detailed information of the population ecology of particular species in combination with data on consumer–resource interactions to apply to the applied problems of biodiversity conservation, food security, pest management and disease prevention. If we can use our understanding of population ecology to address the practical problems of our time in a creative way, we will benefit both the human population and the Earth's biodiversity. Much remains to be done.     

不同动物模型对安格斯牛周岁生长性状遗传参数估计的比较分析

旨在分析不同动物模型对宁夏地区安格斯牛周岁生长性状遗传参数估计的影响,筛选出估计生长性状遗传参数的最佳动物模型。本研究使用包含或剔除母体遗传效应、母体永久环境效应及母体与直接遗传效应之间是否存在协方差来区分6种动物模型,借助DMU软件的DMU_AI模块,利用约束最大似然法(AI-REML)估计安格斯牛周岁生长性状的遗传参数。利用赤池信息准则(AIC)和似然比检验(LRT)来确定最佳动物模型。结果表明:1)在不考虑母体效应的模型中(模型1),周岁体重、体高、体长和胸围的直接遗传力分别为0.59±0.02、0.52±0.03、0.20±0.04和0.52±0.03;2)在考虑母体加性遗传效应及其与直接加性遗传效应的协方差模型中(模型4),直接遗传力和母体效应的遗传力升高,总遗传力值降低;3)模型4估计的周岁体重、体高、体长和胸围的直接遗传力分别为0.77±0.01、0.73±0.03、0.33±0.04和0.70±0.03,母体效应遗传力分别为0.50±0.05、0.51±0.05、0.10±0.04和0.23±0.04,总遗传力分别为0.16±0.06、0.12±0.05、0.11±0.01和0.32±0.01。综上,基于本研究发现模型4对安格斯牛周岁生长性状的遗传参数估计效果最佳,为宁夏地区安格斯牛核心群的选育提高提供理论依据。     

Improvement in winter wheat productivity through regulating PSII photochemistry,photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence under deficit irrigation conditions

Deficit irrigation is critical to global food production, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions with low precipitation. Given water shortage has threatened agricultural sustainability under the dry-land farming system in China, there is an urgent need to develop effective water-saving technologies. We carried out a field study under two cultivation techniques: (1) the ridge and furrow cultivation model (R); and (2) the conventional flat farming model (F), and three simulated precipitation levels (1, 275 mm; 2, 200 mm; 3, 125 mm) with two deficit irrigation levels (150 and 75 mm). We demonstrated that under the ridge furrow (R) model, rainfall harvesting planting under 150 mm deficit irrigation combined with 200 mm simulated precipitation can considerably increase net photosynthesis rate (P_n), quantum yield of PSII (ΦPSII), electron transport rate (ETR), performance index of photosynthetic PSII (F_v/F_m′), and transformation energy potential of PSII (F_v/F_o). In addition, during the jointing, anthesis and grain-filling stages, the grain and biomass yield in the R model are 18.9 and 11.1% higher than those in the flat cultivation model, respectively, primarily due to improved soil water contents. The winter wheat fluorescence parameters were significantly positively associated with the photosynthesis, biomass and wheat production. The result suggests that the R cultivation model with irrigation of 150 mm and simulated precipitation of 200 mm is an effective planting method for enhancing P_n, biomass, wheat production, and chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in dry-land farming areas.     

低模数水玻璃对橡胶轻骨料混凝土力学性能的影响

为了了解不同掺量水玻璃对RLC(橡胶轻骨料混凝土)力学性能的影响,在RLC中加入水玻璃,并用20%粉煤灰代替水泥,制作水玻璃掺量分别为0,2%,4%,6%,8%的混凝土试块.通过核磁共振试验研究其微观孔隙变化及强度形成机理;进行对数函数曲线预测和BP神经网络强度预测,判断其可靠性并对比优劣.结果表明:水玻璃的掺入使RLC抗压强度呈现先增大后减小的趋势,其水玻璃最优掺量出现在2%;适量水玻璃的加入可提高80 目RLC力学性能,使其与最优组(20 目RLC组)28 d力学性能基本相同;水玻璃加入后混凝土孔隙度呈现出先减小后增大趋势,说明适量水玻璃的掺入可优化混凝土孔隙结构,提高混凝土强度;建立曲线拟合和BP-神经网络预测模型,2种预测模型都可用于混凝土龄期强度预测,但BP-神经网络预测模型的稳定性、可靠性及参数的全面性要优于曲线拟合模型.