落叶果树需冷量及其估算模型研究进展

落叶果树的需冷量得到满足,才能顺利完成自然休眠,进行下一个生长发育循环(尤其是正常开花结果),否则其他环境条件再适宜,果树也不萌芽开花,即使萌芽也不整齐,生长结果不良,达不到促成栽培的目的[1].因此,对落叶果树需冷量及其估算的研究至关重要,成为落叶果树设施栽培成败的关键.本文仅就需冷量估算模型进行介绍,以期为设施栽培和更完善的需冷量估算提供理论依据.……     

Neutral models for testing landscape hypotheses

Neutral landscape models were originally developed to test the hypothesis that human-induced fragmentation produces patterns distinctly different from those associated with random processes. Other uses for neutral models have become apparent, including the development and testing of landscape metrics to characterize landscape pattern. Although metric development proved to be significant, the focus on metrics obscured the need for iterative hypothesis testing fundamental to the advancement of the discipline. We present here an example of an alternative neutral model and hypothesis designed to relate the process of landscape change to observed landscape patterns. The methods and program, QRULE, are described and options for statistical testing outlined. The results show that human fragmentation of landscapes results in a non-random association of land-cover types that can be describe by simple statistical methods. Options for additional landscape studies are discussed and access to QRULE described in the hope that these methods will be employed to advance our understanding of the processes that affect the structure and function in human dominated landscapes.     

Testing assumptions of cost surface analysis—a tool for invasive species management

Applied ecology could benefit from new tools that identify potential movement pathways of invasive species, particularly where data are sparse. Cost surface analysis (CSA) estimates the permeability (friction) across a landscape and can be applied to dispersal modelling. Increasingly used in a diversity of applications, several fundamental assumptions that might influence the outputs of CSA (cost surfaces and least-cost pathways) have yet to be systematically examined. Thus, we explore two issues: the presumed relationship between habitat preferences and dispersal behaviour as well as the degree of landscape fragmentation through which an organism moves by modelling a total of 18 sensitivity and dispersal scenarios. We explored the effect of fragmentation by altering the friction values (generally assigned using expert opinion) associated with patch and linear features. We compared these sensitivity scenarios in two sites that differed in fragmentation. We also used eastern grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) as an example invading species and compared diffusion models and two contrasting cost surface dispersal scenarios. The diffusion model underestimated spread because squirrels did not move randomly through the landscape. Despite contrasting assumptions regarding dispersal behaviour, the two cost surfaces were strikingly similar while the least-cost paths differed. Furthermore, while the cost surfaces were insensitive to changes in friction values for linear features, they were sensitive to assumptions made for patch features. Our results suggest that movement in fragmented landscapes may be more sensitive to assumptions regarding friction values than contiguous landscapes. Thus, the reliability of CSA may depend not only on the range of friction values used for patches but also the degree of contiguity in the landscape.     

应用草坪生态系统于城市生态建设的思考

通过对作为生态城市的重要子系统--草坪生态系统的含义及其生态效益的认识,提出一些有利城市生态建设的种草新模式,并对应用草坪生态系统于城市生态建设过程中存在的一些问题进行探讨.     

不同退耕模式林草初夏小气候效应

通过对安塞县几种不同类型退耕还林还草模式,如混交林、人工灌木林、野生灌木林及林中革地进行了小气候观测,分析了不同退耕模式林草配置下的主要小气候特征,采用平行对比观测法定点定时观测了空气温湿度,土壤温度,水面蒸发并与对照裸地进行了对比.结果表明4种不同退耕模式林草配置在6月高温时期能显著降低空气温度和地表温度的日均值,提高空气湿度和土壤湿度,减少水面蒸发等,具有明显的调节功能.4种不同退耕模式日平均空气温度变化呈不对称的单峰曲线,较对照裸地可以降低0.41℃～1.2℃;0～20 cm各深度的土壤温度基本都是混交林＜人工灌木林＜野生灌木林＜林中草地＜对照裸地,混交林内地面最高温度为34.78℃,明显比对照裸地42.54℃低;空气相对湿度日动态呈"U"型变化,其中对照裸地相对温度日均值最低,混交林日均值最大,为55.2%,比对照裸地高3.95%;水面蒸发量为裸地最大,混交林及灌木林能有效减少水面蒸发,减少量较对照裸地可达50.54%和55.20%.     

美国杏李不同栽培模式适应性评价

本文通过对不同品种不同栽培模式美国杏李生长和林地土壤含水量动态变化分析表明:栽培模式3抗旱性好,在研究地可广泛应用;栽培模式2在研究地比较适合在有一定灌溉条件的地区应用;栽培模式1抗旱性适中,可在研究地土壤水分条件尚好的地区应用;栽培模式5可在研究地土壤水分条件尚好的地区控制应用;栽培模式4在研究地不宜采用。     

Predicting the age of fish using general and generalized linear models of biometric data: A case study of two estuarine finfish from New South Wales, Australia

Direct ageing of fish can be a laborious and expensive task when age estimates from a large population are required, and often involves a degree of subjectivity. This study examined the application of general and generalized linear models that predict the age of fish from a range of efficiently and objectively measured covariates. The data sampled were from yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus australis (Sparidae) (Owen, 1853)) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata (Sillaginidae) Cuvier, 1829) populations from New South Wales, Australia. The covariates evaluated in the models were fish length, otolith weight, sex and location (the estuary from which the fish were sampled). Akaike Information Criteria were used for model selection and residual plots of the final models revealed a satisfactory fit to the observations. The best fitting model for each species included all covariates. An additional investigation considered whether general and generalized linear models that predict age from two different categories of biometric information outperform age-length keys with respect to subsequent estimates of total mortality from catch-curve analysis. The two categories of biometric information differed in the ease and cost with which the information could be collected. The first category only included fish length and location as covariates, whilst the second category also included otolith weight and sex. It was found that traditional age-length keys outperformed the predictive models that estimated age from only fish length and location, because the results from the models were prone to significant bias. However, when otolith weight and sex were added as covariates to the predictive models, some of them, including a generalized linear model with a Poisson-distributed response variable, performed similarly to the age-length key. Given that otolith weight and the sex of fish are cheaper to quantify than age from a sectioned otolith in many situations, general or generalized linear models may represent a cheaper and faster method of estimating mortality compared to age-length keys. Such models can also easily incorporate the influence of spatial, temporal and demographic variation.     

变量筛选方法对郁闭度遥感估测模型的影响比较

比较基于偏最小二乘回归的Bootstrap方法与传统的平均残差平方和(RMSq)准则所选变量建立模型的精度差别.结果表明:Bootstrap方法是一种更优秀的变量筛选方法,比RMSq方法精度提高约5%;而且它不受变量多带来的运算困难的限制,更便于实际应用.     

Modelling of soil nutrient budgets: an assessment of agricultural sustainability in Nepal

Abstract. Sustaining soil fertility under agricultural intensification and expansion onto marginal lands is a significant challenge in the Nepalese Middle Mountains. In a detailed watershed study it was shown that the overall soil fertility is poor, forest soils display the poorest conditions as a result of biomass removal, and sustaining agriculture is questionable due to the transformation from traditional to multiple cropping systems. Parent material is a significant factor influencing low phosphorus status while insufficient inputs create deficiencies in total carbon, nitrogen and bases. A nutrient budget model was developed to assess inputs, redistribution and losses relative to soil fertility. Yield, input and management data obtained from farm interviews, and soil analysis data were used in the calculation of nutrient budgets. Results from modelling indicate declining soil fertility under rainfed agriculture, forest and rangelands, and marginal conditions under irrigated agriculture subject to intensive cultivation. Nutrient deficits were relatively low for irrigated rice-wheat systems, which benefit from nutrient inputs via sediments and irrigation waters, but the introduction of triple cropping showed greater deficits. Nutrient balances were most critical under rainfed maize production where 94% of the farms were in deficit. Current shortages of organic matter make elimination of nutrient deficits problematic but improvement of composting, biological N-fixation and fertilizer efficiency and reducing erosion were found to be potential options.     

Growth rates and survival of western rock lobster (Panulirus cygnus) at two temperatures (ambient and 23 °C) and two feeding frequencies

Wild caught post-pueruli, year one and year two post settlement juvenile western rock lobster, Panulirus cygnus, were held at ambient temperatures (15.6 °C to 23.1 °C; mean 19.0 ± 0.07 °C) or at 23 °C, and fed the same ration of a formulated pellet diet either once per night, or 3 times per night, over 12 months, to determine whether elevated temperatures and multiple feeds per night would stimulate growth through increased metabolism and feed utilisation without significant negative impacts on survival. Survival of post-pueruli (mean 63%) did not differ between ambient and 23 °C. Survival of year 1 and 2 juveniles was higher at ambient temperatures (p < 0.01 ambient: year 1 juveniles, 68%; year 2 juveniles, 88%; 23 °C: 57% and 74%, respectively). Feeding frequency did not affect survival of post-pueruli and year 2 juveniles (mean 63%, 81% respectively), but survival was 9% higher for year 1 juveniles fed three times per night (58% versus 67%; p < 0.01). All lobsters grew faster at 23 °C than at ambient temperatures (p < 0.05), with the growth of post-pueruli almost doubled at 23 °C (weight gain at 23 °C versus ambient: post-pueruli, 18 438 % versus 9 915 %; year 1 juveniles 259% versus 165%; year 2 juveniles 23% versus 21%). Feed frequency did not influence the growth of year 1 and 2 juveniles. However, there was an interaction effect of temperature and feed frequency on post-pueruli where weight and carapace length were significantly higher at ambient temperatures when post-pueruli were fed three times a day, whereas at 23 °C weight and carapace length were significantly greater when fed once per day (p < 0.05). Feed intake (g pellet dry matter lobster^− 1 day^− 1) of pellet was higher at 23 °C for all lobsters (p < 0.05), but was the same between lobsters fed 3 times per night versus once per night. This study has shown that increasing temperatures to 23 °C significantly improved the growth of P. cygnus post-pueruli without any adverse effects on survival. The faster growth rates exhibited by year 1 and 2 juveniles at 23 °C may potentially offset their lower survival by significantly reducing culture period. There is no benefit of feeding P. cygnus multiple times at night in terms of growth and survival. The implications for P. cygnus culture are that temperatures should be maintained close to 23 °C during the entire growout period, with due care taken to minimise mortalities through adequate provision of food and shelter. Feeding P. cygnus once daily to excess just prior to dusk to co-incide with nocturnal feeding behaviour is recommended.