基于MCMC模拟的MGPD模型及其在地质灾害风险度量中的应用

基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(简记为MCMC)模拟的参数贝叶斯估计,对改进的广义帕累托分布(简记为MGPD)模型进行了优化,并利用该模型得到了地质灾害损失的在险损失值(简记为VaR)和条件损失值(简记为CVaR).以湖南娄底市地质灾害损失数据进行实证分析及模型适应性检验,结果表明:优化后的模型不仅具有很好的极值数据描述能力,而且具有较强的适用性.     

基于图书出版发行现状的图书馆采访工作创新

本文着重分析了当前我国图书出版发行环境中出现的一些新的变化、新的特点和新的问题,并提出了在图书馆采访工作中,针对这些问题可采取相应的措施。     

The Relationship Between Vegetation Characteristics and Altitudes in Transitional Permafrost Zone in Xidatan,Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Many studies showed that permafrost has profound influence on alpine ecosystem. However, former researches were mainly focused on typical points by temporal scales. There were few studies about the correlation between vegetation characteristics and different altitudes covering a large region in spatial pattern, especially in transitional permafrost(TP). There were continuous permafrost(CP) discontinuous permafrost(DCP) and seasonal frozen ground(SFG) in this study region. The types of permafrost changed from SFG to DCP, and finally become CP as the altitudes of Xidatan increase. In this paper, 112 845 points interpreted by HJ1-B(environment and disaster monitoring and prediction small satellite constellation), vegetation investigation points, thawing layer thickness research sites, ground temperature and water content observation plots were used to examine the spatial pattern of vegetation which were located in different altitudes in Xidatan, a typical TP region, in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Vegetation characteristics, soil moisture content(SMC) and thaw depths were collected in 15 August to 25 August2012. Characteristics of vegetation were mainly represented by fractional vegetation cover(FVC) derived from the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), as well as above ground biomass(AGB). In this paper, we analyzed that the distinction of vegetation characteristics in each range through statistics data. These ranges were divided by varied altitudes. For examples, the ranges were divided into 50 m or 100 m. In this study we use a large area plots method to further discuss the relationship between the features of vegetation and the different regions of permafrost based on altitudes shifts in Xidatan. A diagram described the vegetation characteristics variability with rising altitudes in transitional permafrost region was drawn in this paper. Our results illustrated the FVCs first increased in SFG region and then decreased in DCP zone slowly, and in CP region FVCs soared then dropped dramatically. With the altitudes increased, the curve of FVCs indicated a parabolic distribution except a little difference in the first 200 m range.     

湘西北长果安息香种群数量与分布格局

对湖南石门壶瓶山景关门、桑植龙潭坪茅垭村样地的长果安息香(Changiostyrax raxdolichocarpa)种群数量和分布格局进行调查和分析。结果表明：长果安息香种群的年龄结构呈衰退型，个体数量主要集中在小树(IV龄段)，幼龄级株数和老龄级株数匮乏；长果安息香种群在进入生理死亡年龄前有2个死亡高峰，第1个峰值产生于幼树(II、III龄段)，主要原因是种内和种间竞争(主要是光照)，第2个峰值产生于中树长成大树阶段(V、VI龄段)，除种内、种间对环境的竞争外，生长地土层浅薄、大树倒伏及人为砍伐亦加剧了该峰值的产生；种群整体呈聚集分布类型，小树向中树、大树变化过程表现出聚集分布向随机分布转变，导致长果安息香濒危的主要原因是种子萌发率极低、种群竞争能力较差以及人为干扰等。     

高校师范生专业素养提升的环境要素分析

河南省第十二届师范生教学技能大赛于2014年11月7日至9日在河南新乡举办,参赛选手以先进的教学理念、娴熟的教学技能于流畅的语言表达,展示了扎实的学科基本功和良好的精神面貌。郑州师范学院参赛选手虽准备充分,全情投入,但终因微弱劣势未获理想成绩。大赛让学生打开了视野,增长了见识,锻炼了队伍,发现了问题并明确了努力方向。作为此项赛事的亲历者,现结合大赛情况就郑州师范学院教学质量提升进行研究反思,以期抛砖引玉。     

Reconstructing mole tunnels using frequency-domain ground penetrating radar

The European mole (Talpa europaea L.) inhabits an underground tunnel system whereby the density, extent and condition of the subsurface tunnels are indicative of its activity. Currently, no survey method was able to reveal the spatial extent and condition of the mole's tunnel network. Frequency-domain ground penetrating radar (GPR) was evaluated on its potential to image these shallow tunnel systems. This technique allows for a non-invasive, high-resolution mapping of the subsurface. We examined the effectiveness of this GPR system for delineating the mole's tunnel network. The integration of different depth slices allowed a detailed overview of the tunnel system. Automatic feature recognition on these GPR images was proven valuable for the detection and representation of the mole tunnels. The GPR survey proved successful in mapping the mole's tunnel network, which facilitates the interpretation and characterization of the mole's living environment. This can be linked to the occurrence of earthworms, as the principle food source of the moles, which regulate important ecosystem processes within the soil. This offers new perspectives for the understanding of the mole's habitat.     

杉木老龄林群落的种-多度关系研究

以杉木老龄林群落为研究对象,结合对数级数和对数正态分布模型,建立3 600 m2的大样地分析杉木老龄林群落的种-多度关系。结果表明:样方的平均物种数和个体数分别为6.86种和35.75株,各样方的物种数及个体数存在极显著正相关关系,说明杉木老龄林群落中生境空间对物种个体的承载能力,还未限制其物种数量。个体数-种序(p>0.05)和频度-种序(p>0.05)的分布曲线均符合对数级数分布;对数正态分布模型则能够较好拟合个体数-种序(p>0.05)的分布曲线,但频度-种序(p<0.05)的分布曲线则不适合用该模型来解释。随着尺度的增加,物种数和个体数的变异系数、二者间的相关性及物种数的方差逐步下降,个体数的方差却呈上升的趋势。     

直剪法用于糙米内摩擦角的测定与研究

利用土工合成材料综合测定仪（直剪仪）,以水分含量14.57%的糙米为样品,测定了在不同的法向压应力、不同的剪切速率下糙米的剪切应力并计算出内摩擦角。实验结果表明：糙米的剪切应力随着法向压应力（25kPa～100kPa）的增大而增大;剪切速率（1.33mm/min～2.67mm/min）较低时糙米的内摩擦角随着法向压应力的增大而减小;随着剪切速率（1.33mm/min～5.20mm/min）的增大,糙米的内摩擦角减小。     

合作社模式下农企利益联结机制研究——基于印度古吉拉特邦合作社牛奶销售联盟有限公司的案例分析

我国奶牛养殖加工利益联结不紧,从根本上制约着奶业健康发展。为充分借鉴国际大型奶业企业构建利益联结机制的经验,该研究基于世界奶业20强企业之一——古吉拉特邦合作社牛奶销售联盟有限公司（Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd.,GCMMF）及其下属合作社官方网站资料信息,分析其在产品研发、产品营销、品牌策略等方面的利益创造机制及利用Amul合作模式构建利益分配机制方面的成果,提出我国应借鉴其发展经验,立足国内市场稳定奶业发展,强化中小奶农在行业的地位,发展干乳制品产业以完善产业链条。     

Comparative soil distribution and dissipation of phoxim and thiamethoxam and their efficacy in controlling Bradysia odoriphaga Yang and Zhang in Chinese chive ecosystems

Bradysia odoriphaga Yang and Zhang (the chive gnat) is the major insect pest affecting Chinese chives (Allium tuberosum Rottl. ex Spreng.) in Northern China. Only three insecticide products are registered for its control. In the present study, we compared the persistence and distribution of thiamethoxam and phoxim in soil and determined their long-acting control effects against B. odoriphaga and two other secondary pests, Thrips alliorum Priesner and the Asiatic onion leaf miner Acrolepia alliella Semenov and Kuznetsov (Lepidoptera: Acrolepiidae), after a single soil application using the directional spray-washing method during the early Chinese chive root-rearing period. Under the same applied dosage, the rhizosphere soil at a depth of 4.0–10.0 cm had concentrations of thiamethoxam and phoxim ranging from 2.21 to 7.44 mg/kg and 0.09–0.44 mg/kg, respectively, at the 7th day after application. The half-lives of thiamethoxam and phoxim in the soil were 27.5 and 6.7 days, respectively. Thiamethoxam persisted for 210 days, whereas phoxim only persisted for 45 days in the soil and plants. In addition, thiamethoxam applied at 6.0 kg a.i./ha maintained a low population density of B. odoriphaga, T. alliorum and A. alliella for nine months longer than phoxim. In conclusion, thiamethoxam may help farmers more effectively manage B. odoriphaga and other secondary pests on Chinese chive and reduce the costs of insecticide use while sustaining protection.