黑龙江农垦齐齐哈尔管理局奶牛养殖小区饲养经营模式及效益的探析

对农垦齐齐哈尔管理局奶牛养殖小区的饲养经营模式及效益进行了调查,分析了奶牛小区建设给奶牛群带来的主要变化。通过分析不同模式奶牛小区生产经营状况,确定适合该地区奶牛业发展的奶牛小区经营模式。     

Decreasing of methanogenic activity in paddy fields via lowering ponding water temperature: A modeling investigation

Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas and the huge CH₄ fluxes emitted from paddy fields can prejudice the eco-compatibility of rice cultivation. CH₄ production in submerged rice crops is known to be highly influenced by water temperature. Hence, lowering ponding water temperature (LPWT) could be an option to mitigate CH₄ emissions from paddy environments when it is possible either to irrigate with slightly colder water or to increase ponding water depth. However, paddy soil is a complex environment in which many processes are simultaneously influenced by temperature, leading to a difficult prediction of LPWT effects. For this reason, LPWT efficiency is here theoretically investigated with a one-dimensional process-based model that simulates the vertical and temporal dynamics of water temperature in soil and the fate of chemical compounds that influence CH₄ emissions. The model is validated with literature measured data of CH₄ emissions from a paddy field under time-variable temperature regime. Based on modeling results, LPWT appears promising since the simulated reduction of CH₄ emissions reaches about −12% and −49% for an LPWT equal to −5 °C during the ripening stage only (last 30 days of growing season, when rice is less sensitive to temperature variations) and −2 °C over the whole growing season, respectively. LPWT affects CH₄ emissions either directly (decreasing methanogenic activity), indirectly (decreasing activity of bacteria using alternative electron acceptors), or both. The encouraging results provide the theoretical ground for further laboratory and field studies aimed to investigate the LPWT feasibility in paddy environments.     

感应热处理工艺对拖拉机轴类零件扭转强度的影响

对驱动轮工艺轴进行了7种工艺方案的感应热处理表面强化,然后对工艺轴进行扭转破坏试验。通过对驱动轮工艺轴扭转断裂的研究,为驱动轮轴及承受扭力的轴类零件结构设计、工艺流程设计和热处理技术要求提供指导,从而提高其扭转疲劳强度和使用寿命。     

三江平原水稻潜叶蝇发生规律及预测预报研究

研究旨在明确黑龙江省水稻主产区(三江平原)的水稻潜叶蝇的发生规律及影响水稻潜叶蝇发生的主要气象因子。试验从2006年开始连续10年在黑龙江省三江平原对水稻潜叶蝇的发生情况进行定点调查,收集水稻潜叶蝇发生时期的气象因子及第一代的虫口基数,采用通径分析及逐步回归的方法对6月末水稻潜叶蝇百株虫口数、气象因子及第一代虫口基数进行了研究,研究结果明确了第一代虫口基数及5月中旬的平均气温为影响水稻潜叶蝇的主要直接因子,而5月上旬的平均温度和5月下旬的平均温度是通过影响第一代虫口基数而间接影响了6月末的百株虫口数。通过逐步回归建立的短期预测模型Y=-150.012-1.432X_1+7.79X_4+0.17X_6+5.96X_7-0.121X_9-0.14X_(12)-0.09X_(15)+1.43X_(19)回归拟合效果好。可对黑龙江省三江平原水稻潜叶蝇的发生进行中短期预测。     

基于结构洞指数的网络节点重要度评估

运用双阶差分模型探究了并购与新建投资模式下公司避税效应的非对称性，并进一步从事后的视角探究该非对称性是否是影响企业投资模式选择的显著影响因素。研究发现：相比于新建投资，并购增加了收购方会计利润应税所得差异，且实质性地降低了其所得税实际有效税率，这表明不同投资模式下公司避税效应存在理论预期的非对称性。进一步研究发现，改变企业会计利润应税所得差异以及会计利润应税所得操纵程度是影响企业投资模式选择的重要因素。从事后的视角来看，企业很可能为了获取更大程度的公司避税效应而选择并购行为。     

基于贡献度随机森林模型的公司债信用风险实证分析

运用贡献度随机森林方法（CRF）方法探讨公司债财务指标比率与其违约率的关系.运用连续属性离散化方法（OB）进行财务指标最优降维；运用WOE变换进行模型变量约简.研究表明，CRF模型的分类性能显著优于其他模型，测试集评估总体正确率达90.47%，AUC统计量、AR比率及K-S值分别提升了2.6%、7.6%、4.38%，变量贡献度量化了各财务指标对违约率影响，为诠释随机森林预测机制提供了依据.     

网络嵌入性、商业模式创新与企业竞争优势关系研究

基于商业模式创新中介效应，依据全国314家企业问卷调查的样本数据，运用多元线性回归方法，考量网络嵌入性、商业模式创新和企业竞争优势之间关系，结果发现：关系嵌入性、结构嵌入性与竞争优势均有显著的正向关系；商业模式创新在关系嵌入性、结构嵌入性与企业竞争优势的关系中起着中介作用。鉴此，企业应注重构建不同形式的网络嵌入，推动商业模式的调整与变革，以提高企业竞争优势。     

Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes

The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system.     

花生黄曲霉生长预测模型的研究

通过对分离自花生的黄曲霉LYYSS03-3在不同温度(15-35℃)、不同相对湿度(水活度分别为0.5,0.7,0.9)下的菌落生长特性进行检测,采用Boltzmann和Logistic 模型对黄曲霉的生长曲线进行拟合,结果表明,在适宜温湿度阶段,花生黄曲霉的生长曲线更适合用Boltzmann模型拟合.     

基于高光谱特征参数的冬小麦氮营养指数估算

为了实现快速高精度获取冬小麦氮营养指数的高光谱监测技术，利用美国SVC HR-1024I型野外光谱辐射仪对2017-2019年关中地区的冬小麦进行遥感监测，获取“三边”参数、任意两波段光谱指数和植被指数，通过相关性分析和逐步回归分析方法筛选冬小麦氮营养指数的敏感光谱参数，结合偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)、随机森林算法(RFR)、支持向量机回归(SVR)和梯度增强回归(GBDT)建立冬小麦氮营养指数模型，并对模型估算精度进行验证。结果表明，从拔节期到灌浆期，各时期的氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数均呈极显著相关，其中拔节期氮营养指数与任意两波段光谱指数相关性均高于其他时期，且基于一阶导数光谱的归一化光谱指数和比值光谱指数与氮营养指数的相关系数最大，为0.66。拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数预测模型的决定系数(r²)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.96和0.05,模型验证的r²、RMSE和相对预测偏差(RPD)分别为0.95、0.12和2.12,模型预测精度最高。因此，拔节期基于梯度增强回归的冬小麦氮营养指数估算模型可用于冬小麦氮营养监测...