灰色灾变理论在宁南山区干旱气候预测中的应用

在分析宁南山区干旱气候特征及其对农业生产影响的基础上 ,借助灰色灾变理论分别建立了春旱、夏旱、秋旱、春夏连旱、夏秋连旱、全年旱等六种干旱类型的 GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,并对 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 2 0年的干旱气候做出预测。经对 2 0 0 0年和 2 0 0 1年预测结果验证 ,吻合性良好。此外 ,提出了宁南山区抗旱防旱的综合农业措施。研究结果可对广大旱区抗旱减灾 ,促进农业生产发展提供科学指导。     

关中平原小麦产量对气候变化区域响应的评价模型研究

根据关中地区宝鸡、西安、渭南与咸阳 4地 (市 )的 1 949～ 1 999年的逐年小麦单产记录序列以及 4地 (市 )的气象观测站点自建站以来至 2 0 0 0年近 5 0年的气象记录序列 ,对关中地区小麦产量与年均温、年降水作相关分析 ;探讨了关中地区小麦单产对气候变化区域响应的评价模型。结果发现 :关中平原气候具有暖干化趋势 ;随着气温变暖 ,小麦产量增加幅度减小 ;小麦产量对降水波动的响应比对气温波动的响应显著。     

Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Influence of the physical and chemical properties of soil on the retention process of isoxaflutole and its two main derivatives

Isoxaflutole is a new pre‐emergence herbicide for use in maize and sugarcane. Its two main derivatives are a diketonitrile derivative, the 2‐cyano‐3‐cyclopropyl‐1‐(2‐methanesulfonyl‐4‐trifluoromethylphenyl)propan‐1,3‐dione, named DKN, and a benzoic acid derivative, the 2‐methanesulfonyl‐4‐trifluoromethylbenzoic acid, named BA. The adsorption/desorption processes have never been studied for isoxaflutole (IFT) at high concentrations nor for BA, and the present work aimed at completing the knowledge of the behaviour of these three molecules in conditions close to those encountered in the context of agricultural use. The adsorption/desorption study was conducted on seven soils of different physical and chemical properties, using the batch equilibrium technique. During the experiments, IFT was chemically converted into DKN in a continuous manner. This reaction appeared to be dependent on the pH of the soil and was taken into account in the calculations of the adsorbed and desorbed amounts. The adsorption isotherms obtained were predominantly C‐shaped for IFT and DKN and S‐shaped for BA, but some differences appeared on a few soils. They fitted well the Freundlich equation, and the values of the Freundlich coefficient K_fa showed that, whatever the soil, IFT was more adsorbed than its two derivatives. The main parameter influencing the adsorption of IFT appeared to be the organic matter content, whereas this effect was not evident for DKN and BA. No correlation was found between the extent of adsorption and either clay content or pH of the soil, for the three molecules.     

环境条件和微生物对灭线磷降解的影响

环境条件和微生物影响灭线磷在土壤中的降解。随着土壤含水量和温度的增加,灭线磷的降解速度加快;微生物对灭线磷的降解有显著影响,30℃、含水量为40%条件下,未灭菌土中灭线磷的半衰期为16.6 d,灭菌土中灭线磷的半衰期为31.6 d;有机质对灭线磷的降解也有显著影响,有机质含量高,有利于灭线磷的降解;灭线磷在碱性土壤中的降解快于在酸性土壤中;30℃、含水量为40%条件下,灭线磷在3种土壤中的降解速度为:东北黑土＞广东红土＞山东砂壤土。     

干旱区绿洲荒漠交错带土地退化及生态重建

由于经济的发展，土地资源受到越来越大的压力。当这种压力超过了土地资源的承载能力，就导致了土地退化的发生。作为陆地生态系统的基础，土地资源的退化表现为：土壤肥力降低，生物多样性降低，以及伴随的经济发展的落后。当前世界范围内对土地退化的治理，基本方法仍是基于生态学理论的生物方法。但对土地退化的恢复与生态系统的重建的研究，需要经过谨慎设计的长期实验。绿洲荒漠交错带的重要性，不仅表现为是绿洲的保护屏障，而且在绿洲经济的发展中也起到巨大的作用。通过对国内外大量研究的回顾，讨论了在不同地区进行的长期实验所采用的方法。有人为因素参与的退化土地恢复与生态重建，可以在短期内取得明显效果。产生土地退化的原因，不仅仅是土地资源特点与自然环境这样一些自然因素，还包括一些社会与经济因素。因此退化土地的恢复与生态重建的成功，需要一种考虑自然、社会和经济因素的综合的方法。     

Simulating evolution of glyphosate resistance in Lolium rigidum II: past, present and future glyphosate use in Australian cropping

Glyphosate is a key component of weed control strategies in Australia and worldwide. Despite widespread and frequent use, evolved resistance to glyphosate is rare. A herbicide resistance model, parameterized for Lolium rigidum has been used to perform a number of simulations to compare predicted rates of evolution of glyphosate resistance under past, present and projected future use strategies. In a 30‐year wheat, lupin, wheat, oilseed rape crop rotation with minimum tillage (100% shallow depth soil disturbance at sowing) and annual use of glyphosate pre‐sowing, L. rigidum control was sustainable with no predicted glyphosate resistance. When the crop establishment system was changed to annual no‐tillage (15% soil disturbance at sowing), glyphosate resistance was predicted in 90% of populations, with resistance becoming apparent after between 10 and 18 years when sowing was delayed. Resistance was predicted in 20% of populations after 25–30 years with early sowing. Risks of glyphosate resistance could be reduced by rotating between no‐tillage and minimum‐tillage establishment systems, or by rotating between glyphosate and paraquat for pre‐sowing weed control. The double knockdown strategy (sequential full rate applications of glyphosate and paraquat) reduced risks of glyphosate and paraquat resistance to <2%. Introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape significantly increased predicted risks of glyphosate resistance in no‐tillage systems even when the double knockdown was practised. These increased risks could be offset by high crop sowing rates and weed seed collection at harvest. When no selective herbicides were available in wheat crops, the introduction of glyphosate‐resistant oilseed rape necessitated a return to a minimum‐tillage crop establishment system.     

Predicting effective doses for the joint action of two fungicide applications

A function was derived to predict fungicide efficacy when more than one application of a single active ingredient is made to a crop, given parameters describing the dose–response curves of the component single-spray applications. In the function, a second application is considered to act on that proportion of the total pathogen population which was uncontrollable at the time of the first application (represented by the lower asymptote of the dose–response curve for the first treatment), plus any additional part of the population which survived the first application as a result of a finite dose being applied. Data to estimate the single-spray dose–response curve parameters and validate predictions of two-spray programme efficacy were obtained from separate subsets of treatments in four field experiments. A systemic fungicide spray was applied to wheat at a range of doses, at one or both of two times (t₁ and t₂), in all dose combinations. Observed values of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for septoria leaf blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola) were used to construct response surfaces of dose at t₁ by dose at t₂ for each culm leaf layer. Parameters were estimated from single-spray and zero-dose treatment data only. The model predicted a high proportion (R² = 71–95%) of the variation in efficacy of the two-spray programmes. AUDPC isobols showed that the dose required at t₂ was inversely related to the dose at t₁, but the slope of the relationship varied with the relative timings of t₁ and t₂ in relation to culm leaf emergence. Isobols were curved, so the effective dose – the total dose required to achieve a given level of disease suppression – was lower when administered as two applications.     

Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.     

桃品种需冷量评价模式的探讨

 通过1986～2001年对450余份桃品种需冷量的7．2℃模式、0～7．2℃模式(不包括0℃)和犹它模式比较分析，归纳出桃品种需冷量的评价模式为：以秋季日平均温度稳定低于7．2~C的日期为需冷量测定的起点，以0～7．2℃累积低温值作为需冷量的评价标准比较适宜；犹它模式在中需冷量和长需冷量范围内能有效预测休眠的结束，而不适宜低需冷量品种的测定；7．2℃模式不适宜作为需冷量的评价模式。品种的需冷量与叶芽开放和始花期的相关系数分别为0．52和0．58，均达到极显著水平。提出了桃品种需冷量评价的系列标准参照品种。