Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries

Fisheries scientists habitually consider uncertainty in parameter values, but often neglect uncertainty about model structure, an issue of increasing importance as ecosystem models are devised to support the move to an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF). This paper sets out pragmatic approaches with which to account for uncertainties in model structure and we review current ways of dealing with this issue in fisheries and other disciplines. All involve considering a set of alternative models representing different structural assumptions, but differ in how those models are used. The models can be asked to identify bounds on possible outcomes, find management actions that will perform adequately irrespective of the true model, find management actions that best achieve one or more objectives given weights assigned to each model, or formalize hypotheses for evaluation through experimentation. Data availability is likely to limit the use of approaches that involve weighting alternative models in an ecosystem setting, and the cost of experimentation is likely to limit its use. Practical implementation of an EAF should therefore be based on management approaches that acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in model predictions and are robust to it. Model results must be presented in ways that represent the risks and trade‐offs associated with alternative actions and the degree of uncertainty in predictions. This presentation should not disguise the fact that, in many cases, estimates of model uncertainty may be based on subjective criteria. The problem of model uncertainty is far from unique to fisheries, and a dialogue among fisheries modellers and modellers from other scientific communities will therefore be helpful.     

Status and management of fish populations of Rawal Dam reservoir, Pakistan

Abstract Studies were conducted to determine the composition and relative abundance of commercially desirable and less desirable fish populations of Rawal Dam reservoir. Fifteen fish species belonging to 11 genera were identified. The less desirable species were abundant, constituting 62.3%, 84.8% and 78% of the total number of fish sampled on three occasions. Carnivores were represented by two species with very low percentage composition by number or weight. The ratio of total weight of forage fish to that of carnivorous fish indicated an unbalanced population in the lake. The proportion of the fish population at harvestable size suggests a balanced population, but this index may have been overestimated because of a minimum harvestable size.     

Recent changes in the trophic structure of the Black Sea

During the past few decades, the Black Sea has been subjected to various human impacts that have led to changes in the ecology of this inland sea. River runoff has introduced high levels of certain heavy metals and other toxic substances as well as detergents. Ship traffic has led to the introduction of new species, and fishing pressures have also altered the ecology of the area.
This paper reviews major ecological changes over the past 40 years. An increase in nutrients has caused eutrophication, with outbursts of phytoplankton blooms and changes in the species composition of these algae. Small-sized zooplankton species and gelatinous zooplankton have become more common, while many of the herbivorous copepods have decreased in abundance or have disappeared. The introduction of the predatory ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the 1980s has had significant impact on the plankton community and has led to a sharp decline in anchovy stocks. Decreased water transparency has led to a loss of macrophytic algae, except in shallow waters, and to a subsequent decline in the zoobenthos associated with this flora. Eutrophication has also led to decreased oxygen concentrations in the near-bottom water due to large amounts of decomposing phytoplankton, and regions of hypoxia and anoxia now appear on the shelf, with consequent reduction in benthic populations of invertebrates and demersal fish. The numbers of fish species harvested commercially have fallen from 26 to 5, but the total catch has increased, owing to increases in abundance of small fish (e.g., sprat) and horse mackerel, and to increased fishing effort.     

渔用自增强聚乙烯单丝的拉伸力学性能分析

在标准实验室环境里,对渔用自增强聚乙烯(self-reinforced polyethylene,简称SRPE)单丝的结晶形态、拉伸力学性能进行了分析。结果表明：渔用SRPE单丝结晶度、声速值比普通聚乙烯(polyethylene,简称PE)单丝均有提高,其内部生成了串晶结构;SRPE单丝断裂强度、结节强度和结强损失率比普通PE单丝分别提高了12．75％、4．82%和12．69％,而断裂伸长率降低了27．72％。结论可供渔具设计及网线材料选配时参考。     

山东省海洋渔业产业集群复杂网络分析

选择《山东省统计年鉴》与互联网中山东省海洋渔业相关企业的数据,应用复杂网络相关理论和Pajek软件对山东省海洋渔业的网络统计特征进行了相关研究,并提出了相应的对策,即推进海洋生态建设与健全渔业资源管理体制。     

Movement patterns of Lichia amia (Teleostei: Carangidae): results from a long-term cooperative tagging project in South Africa

Understanding fish movement patterns and migrations is important for fisheries management as well as the identification and conservation of critical habitats. Data collected by the Oceanographic Research Institute's Cooperative Fish Tagging Project (ORI-CFTP) were used to describe the large-scale movement patterns of Lichia amia along the South African coastline. A total of 10 762 L. amia were tagged between 1984 and 2012, of which 744 (7%) were recaptured. Most tagging effort, mainly on juvenile and subadult individuals, took place along the south-eastern (i.e. Eastern Cape) and south-western (i.e. Western Cape) regions of the country during summer. Conversely, more L. amia were tagged and recaptured (mostly adults) during winter and spring (July to November) along the north-east coast (i.e. KwaZulu-Natal). Movements (dispersal distance in kilometres) by juveniles were restricted and largely confined to estuaries within the south-eastern and south-western regions of the country. There was a significant effect of fish size on distance moved (ANOVA: p<0.001), with evidence of a distinct seasonal (winter) longshore migration by adults to KwaZulu-Natal. The consequences of juvenile residency in estuarine habitats and high recapture rate of adults during a directed, seasonal spawning migration are discussed in light of improving current fisheries management.     

Molecular species identification and population genetics of chondrichthyans in South Africa: current challenges,priorities and progress

Molecular genetic techniques, such as DNA barcoding and genotyping, are increasingly being used to assist with the conservation and management of chondrichthyans worldwide. Southern Africa is a shark biodiversity hotspot, with a large number of endemic species. According to the IUCN Red List, a quarter of South Africa's chondrichthyans are threatened with extinction. South Africa's commercial shark fisheries have increased over the last decade and there is a need to ensure sustainable utilisation and conservation of this fisheries resource. Here, we give an overview of the molecular techniques that are used to assist in the identification of species, cryptic speciation and possible interspecific hybridisation, as well as the assessment of population structure and reproductive behaviour of endemic and commercially important chondrichthyan species of southern Africa. We discuss the potential application of these techniques for management and conservation of several species affected by South African fisheries. Acquiring baseline barcode data of all chondrichthyans in southern African waters and assessing the population structure of exploited species on a local and greater regional scale are recommended as research priorities. Future prospects should also include high-throughput molecular marker development and investigation of intraspecies functional variation using next generation sequencing technology.     

2种坛紫菜品系栽培生长参数及CNP固定效率比较

以洞头海区养殖的"洞头本地菜"和"浙东1号"2种坛紫菜品系为研究材料,测定其不同收割期叶状体长度、干质量、CNP含量等参数,核算了S值、产量及CNP固定效率等指标。结果显示:随着收割期延长,2种坛紫菜品系的叶状体长度逐渐下降,单条叶状体干质量与S值逐渐增加,产量先升后降,CNP固定效率整体呈上升趋势。一水至四水"洞头本地菜"的单条叶状体长度、干质量均高于"浙东1号",二水至四水"洞头本地菜"的产量、CNP固定效率均高于"浙东1号",2种坛紫菜品系S值之间无明显差异。一水至四水"洞头本地菜"CNP总固定效率分别为900.74 kg/hm~2、110.16 kg/hm~2和14.16 kg/hm~2,"浙东1号"CNP总固定效率分别为683.34 kg/hm~2、84.3 kg/hm~2和10.75 kg/hm~2。上述指标在不同收割期均呈极显著差异(P0.01),在不同品系间均无显著差异(P0.05),研究结果有助于进一步认知坛紫菜养殖的生长性状与生态效益。     

Movement patterns of adult pike (Esox lucius L.) in a Belgian lowland river

Northern pike, Esox lucius, needs different habitats to survive and reproduce and thus depends on the availability and accessibility of these habitats. To efficiently manage pike, information is needed on its spatial and temporal patterns of migration. In this study, we investigated the occurrence of adult pike migration and which environmental variables influenced migration. From December 2010, we followed 15 pike for 1 year by use of radio telemetry in the River Yser, a typical lowland river characterised by anthropogenic impacts such as artificial embankments. Pike migrated most in February and March, which could indicate they frequented spawning habitat in this period. Four environmental variables significantly affected pike migration, ranging from the location where pike were observed (strongest effect), over water temperature and flow to diel water temperature change (weakest effect). The relation between migration and the location where pike were observed could demonstrate that pike preferred specific regions in the river. Increasing water temperature triggered migration for both sexes, and males started migrating at lower temperatures than females, which suggests that males start migrating earlier. This was the only substantial difference observed between male and female pike migration. The results suggest that migration was inhibited by high flow, as no migration was observed at high flow. River managers can use this information to efficiently manage their pike populations, for example, by removing or temporarily opening hydraulic structures like valves, weirs and sluices. This may facilitate access to suitable habitats at moments pike needs these habitats to fulfil its life cycle.     

The effect of random and density‐dependent variation in sampling efficiency on variance of abundance estimates from fishery surveys

Abundance indices (AIs) provide information on population abundance and trends over time, while AI variance (AIV) provides information on reliability or quality of the AI. AIV is an important output from surveys and is commonly used in formal assessments of survey quality, in survey comparison studies, and in stock assessments. However, uncertainty in AIV estimates is poorly understood and studies on the precision and bias in survey AIV estimates are lacking. Typically, AIV estimates are “design based” and are derived from sampling theory under some aspect of randomized samples. Inference on population density in these cases can be confounded by unaccounted process errors such as those due to variable sampling efficiency (q). Here, we simulated fish distribution and surveys to assess the effect of q and variance in q on design‐based estimates of AIV. Simulation results show that the bias and precision of AIV depend on the mean q and variance in q. We conclude that to fully evaluate the reliability of AI, both observation error and variability in q must be accounted for when estimating AIV. A decrease in mean q and an increase in the variance in q results in increased bias and decreased precision in survey AIV estimates. These effects are likely small in surveys with mean q ≥ 1. However, for surveys where q ≤ 0.5, these effects can be large. Regardless of the survey type, AIV estimates can be improved with knowledge of q and variance in q.