山地校园不同下垫面雨水径流重金属污染特征和健康风险评估

[目的] 了解山地校园不同下垫面雨水径流重金属污染特征及雨水径流中重金属元素对于人体的健康风险，为山地海绵城市建设提供径流污染控制参考和人员健康保护基础数据。[方法] 2019年7月22日在重庆交通大学针对屋顶、道路、停车场和广场4种典型的下垫面进行了雨水径流的取样监测，并统计分析场次降雨平均浓度（EMC）、电导率（EC）、钠吸附率（SAR）、危险商（HQ）和危险指数（HI）。[结果] 广场径流过程中重金属元素整体变化波动较大，道路雨水径流的重金属健康风险最大而屋顶健康风险最小；大多重金属污染物在产流后的10 min内出现了降幅，其中Fe和Mn的降幅较大，Zn的降幅中等，Cu的降幅最低；As和Cr是雨水径流中健康风险最高的重金属污染物。[结论] 山地校园重金属污染物冲刷速度较快，人流大的下垫面雨水径流中重金属元素变化波动较大，但健康风险较低；车流大的下垫面雨水径流中重金属元素波动较为稳定，但健康风险较高。     

Anthropogenically disturbed potentially toxic elements in roadside topsoils of a suburban region of Bishkek,Central Asia

The ecological environment in Central Asia is vulnerable to pressure from human activity due to the physical geography and climatic fragility of this region. A set of indicators suitable for the future assessment of this pressure needs to be proposed. Thirty‐six topsoil samples (0–5 cm) were collected from roadsides in a suburban region of Bishkek, the capital of the Kyrgyz Republic in Central Asia, and a risk assessment of anthropogenically disturbed potentially toxic elements (PTEs) was systematically conducted with classic statistical methods. The results of detrended correspondence analysis and principal component analysis clearly showed that topsoil samples with high contents of PTEs (Pb, Zn and Cu) were strongly affected by traffic within a distance threshold of 200 m and that anthropogenic effects decreased significantly with increasing distance from the highway. The enrichment factor and anthropogenic contribution for Pb were the highest among the three PTEs, with average values of 2.0% and 47.4%, respectively, suggesting enrichment. However, the results of the human health risk assessment also indicated that noncarcinogenic risks did not occur for any of the anthropogenic PTEs. The reported method provides a new systematic pathway to reveal anthropogenic influences on the geochemical composition of soil. The conclusions of this work will be highly valuable as important guidelines for agriculture, and the results of the PTE contents will provide a scientific basis for soil collection in future studies.     

北京市公园绿地投资标准测算

公园绿地作为"唯一有生命力"的城市基础设施,一直以来其建设和投资标准不像道路、管线等基础睡设施那般明确,而随着近年来城市发展对生态环境的日益重视,各类公园绿地项目逐渐增多。为了加强公园绿地项目在前期设计和审批阶段的科学性、合理性,文章结合北京市当前园林绿化的实际情况,按照"一亩地公园"模型的思路,根据不同的投资工程,建立了投资标准测算模型,测算了投资指标,尝试为公园绿地的投资标准确定提供一种新的思路。     

农业供应链金融风险的主要特征与风险防范的基本原则

我国农业供应链突出表现为“集体化”、“现代化”和“生态化”，资金的安全性、流动性和信用程度都需要整体协同管控。交易成本和信息不对称决定了我国农业供应链以间接融资为主，其金融风险的特征主要表现为道德风险突出、整体风险难识别、可能引致区域系统性风险和行业系统性风险。因此，应当因地制宜确定农业供应链金融支持项目，并运用系统论原理控制农业供应链金融风险。     

Cause and Consequence in Maize Planting Dates in Germany

An important part of agricultural adaptation is the timing of crop sowing dates, affecting yields and the level of risk incurred during a particular season. Cold stress is especially relevant in maize, Zea mays L., so that the timing of planting in the spring is a tactical response to short‐term weather, but is also subject to strategic planning with regard to longer‐term climate. Both factors compare the potential implications of cold stress to the additional yield obtainable through earlier planting. New cultivars suited to growing conditions in Europe and generally increasing spring temperatures have enabled earlier planting, but it is still dependent on short‐term weather during the planting period. In the context of field‐level decision‐making, a panel regression is used to estimate the relationship between weekly local temperature and precipitation and planting dates at specific sites throughout Germany. Next, localised weather data and planting behaviour are linked to yields at the district (Landkreis) level to show the effects of planting date on yield. Based on these relationships optimal planting dates are explored with some associated costs and benefits. Results show a trend towards earlier planting that follows observed increasing spring temperatures and the availability of more cold‐tolerant cultivars but this advance is buffered by the increasing severity of minimum temperatures during a critical period. Earlier planting potentially increases yield but this is offset by additional management costs and risk. A robust and simple depiction of farmer behaviour in climatic, technological and economic context can help to understand trends in crop management and productivity that effect agricultural landscapes.     

吉林省主要粮食作物生产风险评价

充分认识吉林省主要粮食作物生产面临的风险,为稳定粮食产量和保障国家粮食安全提供参考。以县级行政单元为研究对象,在运用直线滑动平均法对作物单产进行趋势模拟的基础上,运用非参数信息扩散模型对吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种主要粮食作物的生产风险进行了评估。结果表明:不同类型作物生产所面临的风险大小不同,单产损失风险从大到小依次为大豆、玉米、水稻;西北部地区县域的风险普遍较大,其次是东南角地区,而中部地区县域的风险相对较小;吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种作物单产损失率30%以上的概率较小。     

基于点评估方法的两广地区番木瓜中农药残留膳食暴露风险研究

为评估两广地区番木瓜中主要农药的残留情况及其产生的风险,采集了广东、广西地区40个生产基地的番木瓜样品进行测试分析,研究其生产过程中使用的杀虫剂、杀菌剂、杀螨剂和植物生长调节剂等各种农药残留情况,并对我国不同人群的膳食暴露风险进行了评估。结果显示,40批次番木瓜中检出农药残留32批次;在检出的32份番木瓜样品中,检出率超过10%的有咪鲜胺、吡虫啉、多菌灵、啶虫脒和苯醚甲环唑5种农药,检出率分别为51.1%、21.5%、13.3%、11.1%、10.9%。采用点评估方法,选择检出率在10%以上的咪鲜胺、吡虫啉、多菌灵、啶虫脒和苯醚甲环唑,进行农药残留慢性膳食摄入风险（%ADI）评估、急性膳食摄入风险（%ARfD）评估,并进行不同消费人群暴露点评估。结果显示：检出的5种农药%ADI均低于100.00%,为0.00023%~0.0059%;%ARfD远低于100%,为0.50%~28.3%,5种农药的急性和慢性摄入风险均为儿童高于成年人,绝大多数女性的摄入风险高于男性;5种农药急性摄入风险均高于慢性摄入风险,风险水平由高到低为咪鲜胺>啶虫脒>苯醚甲环唑>多菌灵>吡虫啉,但点评估结果均远低于100%,说明通过食用番木瓜摄入的农药残留极其微量,不会对人体产生急性或慢性风险。     

Turbidity‐induced changes in emergent effects of multiple predators with different foraging strategies

Abstract – In natural systems, prey frequently interact with multiple predators and the outcome often cannot be predicted by summing the effects of individual predator species. Multiple predator interactions can create emergent effects for prey, but how those change across environmental gradients is poorly understood. Turbidity is an environmental factor in aquatic systems that may influence multiple predator effects on prey. Interactions between a cruising predator (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides) and an ambush predator (muskellunge Esox masquinongy) and their combination foraging on a shared prey (bluegill Lepomis macrochirus) were examined across a turbidity gradient. Turbidity modified multiple predator effects on prey. In clear water, combined predators consumed in total more prey than expected from individual predator treatments, suggesting risk enhancement for prey. In moderately turbid water, the predators consumed fewer prey together than expected, suggesting a risk reduction for prey. At high turbidity, there were no apparent emergent effects; however, the cruising predator consumed more prey than the ambush predator, suggesting an advantage for this predator. Understanding multiple predator traits across a gradient of turbidity increases our understanding of how complex natural systems function.     

风险厌恶下的供应链收益共享契约协调模型研究

收益共享契约是实现供应链系统绩效改善或完美协调的一种机制.考虑了零售商与供应商分别具有风险厌恶决策偏好情况下，在随机市场需求下建立了由单供应商和单零售商组成的二级供应链的收益共享契约模型，并对模型进行了分析，揭示了供应商和零售商的风险厌恶决策偏好对收益共享契约参数的影响.研究结果表明：当销售商（供应商）的风险厌恶控制在一定程度内时，通过调整收益共享契约参数，可以保证供应链的协调.     

天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。