基于面板数据模型的中国农业生产用能与农业经济增长关系

为揭示不同区域农业生产用能与农业经济增长的差异,该文以中国东中西地区为研究对象,利用1990～2008年农业生产用能与农业产值数据构筑面板数据模型进行分析。结果表明,各地区农业生产用能与农业产出增长均存在格兰杰因果关系,随着地区发达程度的降低,这种关系越发明显;同时,西部地区农业生产用能与农业产出增长还存在双向长期格兰杰因果关系。通过模型分析,进一步定量揭示了各地区间农业生产用能与农业产出增长之间关系的差异,以及地区内部各省份之间也存在差异;详述了区域经济发展水平与农业经济增长关系的密切程度,以及继续增加农业投入与农业经济持续增长出现差异的原因。最后指出,在农业现代化普及地区,重点是提高农业物资利用效率和使用合理的种植结构,而在农业现代化中等及欠发达地区,应注重农业物资投入及效率提高。     

熟化红薯热风干燥特性及数学模型适用性

为了为红薯干热风干燥工业化提供理论基础,该文研究了不同温度（60、70、80℃）、风速（0.8、1.2、1.6 m/s）和厚度（0.6、0.9、1.2 cm）条件下红薯的热风干燥特性。比较了12种数学模型在熟化红薯热风干燥中的适用性,结果表明Wang and Singh模型的拟合程度最高,R2值、χ2和RMSE值分别为0.998、0.000168和0.0117。计算了不同干燥条件下的有效水分扩散系数Deff和活化能Ea,有效水分扩散系数Deff随着干燥温度、风速和物料厚度的增加而变大,干燥活化能Ea为40.103 kJ/mol,可为其干燥工艺的控制提供技术依据。     

冬小麦灌浆期蚜虫危害高光谱特征研究

为了有效控制农业生产中麦蚜的危害,提高利用遥感技术对麦蚜监测预报的时效性,在冬小麦蚜虫发生的关键生育时期（灌浆期）,获取了26个地面调查点的蚜害等级和冠层光谱数据。对比分析了不同蚜害等级的冠层光谱,发现随着蚜虫危害程度的加重,在可见光、近红外和短波红外波段的冬小麦冠层反射率均逐渐减小。通过进一步筛选各波段范围的最敏感波段,初步构建了冬小麦蚜害高光谱指数,并建立了蚜害高光谱指数与蚜害等级的遥感反演模型。结果表明,该模型可以用来反演灌浆期冬小麦的蚜害等级,为高光谱遥感识别和监测冬小麦灌浆期蚜虫危害提供理论依据。     

利用近红外光谱测定玉米非淀粉组分中纤维素及半纤维素含量

玉米非淀粉组分是可再生的生物质资源,为实现玉米皮渣中纤维素及半纤维含量的快速检测,该研究以偏最小二乘法(PLS)建立数学模型,探讨一阶导数及二阶导数平滑等预处理对建模的影响,建立玉米皮渣中纤维素及半纤维素近红外分析模型.研究结果表明,纤维素模型的定标集和验证集相关系数为0.9806和0.9799,定标集标准偏差(SEE...     

蒸汽漂烫菊花的薄层干燥特性和质量评价（英）

该文旨在研究蒸汽漂烫菊花的干燥特性和质量评价。在60, 80, 100和120℃ 4个温度,0.5 m/s风速条件下,对蒸汽漂烫菊花的薄层干燥特性进行研究,结果表明其干燥属于典型的降速干燥过程,干燥速度随热风温度的升高而迅速加快。通过含水率的对数与干燥时间作图,发现其干燥过程分为3个阶段（第一、第二和第三降速阶段）,第一阶段能去除大约84%的水分。根据第一阶段数据,在60～120℃干燥时其有效扩散系数为1.10 to 6.44×10-9 m2/s,活化能为1829.5 kJ/kg,Midilli模型能较好地拟合其主要的干燥过程。质量评价结果表明,蒸汽漂烫2 min,100或120℃干燥菊花中,咖啡酰奎宁酸类化合物含量和抗氧化活性较高,该研究可为菊花干燥工艺提供参考。     

宁夏南部山区农户土地利用决策模拟

伴随着工业化和城镇化的快速发展,农村劳动力务农机会成本不断上升,影响了农户土地利用决策行为。为理解这一过程,该文以宁夏南部山区为例,采用农户调查数据,基于农户决策机制和线性规划理论,构建农户土地利用决策模型;并利用所建模型分析劳动力务农机会成本上升对案例区农户土地利用决策行为的影响。结果表明：在粮食和劳动力市场健全的条件下,随着农业劳动力务农机会成本的上升,劳动力成为影响农户土地利用决策关键因素,即农户依据其成员的比较优势,让青壮年劳动力外出务工,老人、妇女从事农业生产;留守劳动力倾向从市场购进所需粮食,选择种植马铃薯、西瓜等劳动生产率更高的农作物;农户选择撂荒部分耕地,特别是贫瘠耕地。该模型能够解释研究区农户的土地利用决策行为。     

基于热平衡模型的温室地表水源热泵系统供暖设计与试验

为降低长江三角洲温室冬季供暖能耗,提出一种采用温室运行热负荷预测技术进行开放式温室地表水源热泵供暖系统（surface water-source heat hump system,SWSHPS）的供暖设计方法。结合温室的工程运行实际和各种环境因素,建立了温室热平衡预测模型。并采用MATLAB/SIMULINK模块进行了8种温室环境条件下的能量数值模拟,计算了温室不同覆盖材料和保温幕状态的能耗,当室外空气温度为0℃时,纳米掺锑二氧化锡涂膜玻璃温室比普通浮法玻璃温室可减少能耗23%,夜间开启保温幕比收拢可减少能耗22%。最后进行了温室冬季供暖试验,试验结果表明：室内空气温度垂直分布较均匀,能够满足设计要求,1月份系统平均制热性能系数（coefficient of performance,COP）值为2.3。基于热平衡预测模型设计的温室地表水水源热泵供暖系统是可行的。     

Assessing multi-criteria approaches with environmental, economic and social attributes, weights and procedures: A case study in the Pampas, Argentina

Soil erosion control is a major issue in agriculture. The no till system of soybean production has been widely adopted; however, soil erosion may increase due to pasture and forestry land convertion to cropland in the marginal Pampas, Argentina. The aim of this paper is to assess the conflicts and trade-off among environmental, economic and social interests by using three continuous multi-criteria approaches and a set of different weights. Different land uses, crops, pastures, forestry and soil and water conservation practices at the basin scale in the marginal Pampas were assessed. The basin (423 km²) was discretised into 176 sub-basins to focus the management strategy on 5th and 6th order streams. Minimum basic information was obtained using intensive field observations and satellite images. The basin hydrology, soil erosion, sediment delivery and vegetated filter strip models and GIS were used to quantify the technical coefficients. Thirteen decision factors and six criteria (peak run-off, annual erosion, sediment, investment, gross margin and employment) were used in the optimisation trials. Weighted goal programming, lexicographic goal programming, compromise programming and a sensitivity analysis of weights were performed. The results showed a high impact of soil and water management practices on the environmental factors and a strong conflict between environmental and economic interests. The three multi-criteria approaches also showed that it is possible to obtain a good level of goal achievement with different plans. These plans should include: soil conservation practices; crop rotation (of a 2:1 soybean-to-corn ratio); gully and channel erosion control; regulation ponds; and pasture and agro-forestry areas. This goal achievement is mainly limited by public and private investment. Sensitivity analysis of the decision-maker weights shows differences among the values achieved by the criteria and their trade-off. Thus, the weight value of each criterium should be supported by the negotiation-consensus process.     

Interpretation of commercial production information: A case study of lulo (Solanum quitoense), an under-researched Andean fruit

Every time a farmer plants and harvests a crop represents a unique event or experiment. Our premise is that if it were possible to characterize the production system in terms of management and the environmental conditions, and if information on the harvested product were collected from a large number of harvesting events under varied conditions, it should be possible to develop data-driven models that describe the production system. These models can then be used to identify appropriate growing conditions and improved management practices for crops that have received little attention from researchers. The analysis and interpretation of commercial production data in the context of naturally occurring variation in environmental and management, as opposed to controlled experimental data, requires novel approaches. Information was available on both variation in commercial production of the tropical fruit, lulo (Solanum quitoense), and the associated environmental conditions in Colombia. This information was used to develop and evaluate procedures for the interpretation of the variation in commercial production of lulo. The most effective procedures depended on expert guidance: it was not possible to develop a simple effective one step procedure, but rather an iterative approach was required. The most effective procedure was based on the following steps. First, highly correlated independent variables were evaluated and those that were effectively duplicates were eliminated. Second, regression models identified those environmental factors most closely associated with the dependent variable of fruit yield. The environmental factors associated with variation in fruit yield were then used for more in depth analysis, and those environmental variables not associated with yield were excluded from further analysis. Linear regression and multilayer perceptron regression models explained 65-70% of the total variation in yield. Both models identified three of the same factors but the multilayer perceptron based on a neural network identified one location as an additional factor. Third, the three environmental factors common to both regression models were used to define three Homogeneous Environmental Conditions (HECs) using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM). Fourth, yield was analyzed with a mixed model with the categorical variables of HEC, location, as a proxy for cultural factors associated with a geographic region, and farm as proxy for management skills. The mixed model explained more than 80% of the total variation in yield with 61% associated with the HECs and 19% with farm. Location had minimal effects. The results of this model can be used to determine the appropriate environmental conditions for obtaining high yields for crops where only commercial data are available, and also to identify those farms that have superior management practices for given environmental conditions.     

自适应粒子群优化算法（APSO）在膜下滴灌优化灌溉中的应用

在考虑了灌溉水量、作物水分响应模型、降雨量、不同生育阶段缺水对产量敏感指数、作物市场价格、农业灌溉用水价格、膜下滴灌成本价格等因素下,建立了农作物经济效益最优的多约束、非线性灌溉模型。将APSO算法进行灌溉模型优化求解。利用新疆棉花膜下滴灌实验所得数据,得出了作物在不同范围有限灌水量下棉花各生育阶段间灌水量的最优效益分...