大功率拖拉机强制润滑的仿真和试验

为了研究大功率拖拉机强制润滑系统的流量分配特性,基于AMESim分析平台建立了某系统的热液压流体模型,仿真得出强制润滑系统的流量分配特性,并用试验证明了热液压仿真结果的正确性,为液压润滑系统流量分配的改进设计提供依据。     

可追溯农产品的消费者购买意愿调查--以乌鲁木齐市为例

2013年在乌鲁木齐市对消费者进行了包括消费者的基本特征及其对可追溯农产品的认知程度和购买意愿的实证调查,并且运用二元Logistic模型分析了影响消费者购买意愿的主要因素。结果表明：婚姻状况、民族、文化程度、职业、价格等因素对消费者购买可追溯农产品的购买意愿有显著影响。     

添加配重的五杆式丹参移栽机构动力学优化设计与试验

配重法能降低五杆式丹参移栽机构的振动,改善其动力学性能.为获取所添加配重的最优参数,建立五杆式丹参移栽机构的动力学模型,在动力学模型的基础上建立移栽机构的动力学优化模型,运用多目标函数获取机构不同转速下所添加配重的优化参数,通过动力学分析,确定曲柄转速为60 r/min时所对应的配重参数为最优参数组合:曲柄AB添加配重...     

Catch per unit effort standardization of the eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) fleet

A general linear model (GLM) was used to standardize catch per unit effort (CPUE) data for Alaska walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) from the Bering Sea fleet for the years 1995–1999. Data were stratified temporally by year and season and spatially by area using either Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) or National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) reporting areas. Four factors were used: vessel identification (ID) number, vessel speed, percentage of pollock by weight in the haul (a measure of targeting), and whether most of the haul took place before or after sunset. At least 29 combinations of main effects, quadratic covariates, and interactions were tested for each year/area/season stratum. GLM models explained from 31 to 48% of the total sums of squares. Vessel identification number was included in all models and explained the most variability. Of the remaining factors, the square of the percentage of pollock in the haul was included in most models, following an F-test to determine parsimony. Analysis of the vessel identification number coefficients indicated that larger vessels tended to have higher CPUEs; and that this relationship differed between dedicated catcher vessels and offshore catcher processors. Coefficient estimates and response surfaces generally indicated increased CPUEs with the percentage of pollock in the haul and showed mixed results with vessel speed. The vessel identification number incorporated most vessel characteristics, leaving vessel speed primarily as a fitting variable with less biological meaning. The year/area/season stratification procedure was found to be necessary due to the unbalanced design, which otherwise would have factor levels with no data in a large combined model. In addition, the stratification procedure reduced the variability in CPUE substantially.     

A generalized linear mixed model analysis of a multi-vessel fishery resource survey

A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) that treats year and spatial cell as fixed effects while treating vessel as a random effect is used to examine fishing power among chartered industry-based vessels and a research trawler, the FRV Miller Freeman, for bottom trawl surveys on the upper continental slope of U.S. West coast. A Bernoulli distribution is used to model the probability of a non-zero haul and the gamma distribution to model the non-zero catch rates of four groundfish species. The use of vessel as a random effect allows the data for the various vessels to be combined and a single continuous time-series of biomass indices to be developed for stock assessment purposes. The GLMMs fit the data reasonably well. Among the different models examined, the GLMM incorporating a random vessel × year effect had the smallest ΔAIC and was thus chosen as the best model. Also, estimated random effects coefficients associated with the industry-based vessels and the FRV Miller Freeman for each year suggests that these vessels can be assumed to be from a common random effects distribution. These results suggest that combining data from the chartered industry-based vessels and from the research trawler may be appropriate to develop indices of abundance for stock assessment purposes. Finally, an evaluation of variances associated with abundance indices from the different models indicate that analyzing these data as a fixed effect GLM may underestimate the level of variability due to ignoring the grouped nature of tows within vessels. As such, use of a mixed model approach with vessel as a random effect is a reasonable approach to developing abundance indices and their variances.     

以 Balb／c 小鼠为动物模型的 PCV-2疫苗效力检验方法的建立

为建立以Balb／c小鼠为动物模型的 PCV-2疫苗免疫效力检验方法,选取4周龄 SPF级雌性Balb／c 小鼠20只,随机分成4组（Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ组）,每组5只,Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ组分别背部皮下1点,背部皮下2点和背部皮下、腿部肌肉2点接种 PCV-2疫苗0．1、0．2、0．2 mL／只,Ⅳ组空白对照组不接种;各免疫组分别于首免疫后7、14、21 d 加强免疫一次,免疫后7、10、14、21、28、35、42 d 采血分离血清,用 ELISA 方法测定PCV-2特异性抗体,确定最佳免疫途径和免疫剂量。另选取4周龄 SPF 级雌性 Balb／c 小鼠,随机分成免疫组、攻毒对照组和健康对照组,免疫组和攻毒对照组于二免后14 d 用 PCV-2强毒株进行攻毒,比较各试验组小鼠在临床症状、病理变化、相对日增重、PCV-2核酸载量等方面差异性,确定小鼠动物模型检测指标。抗体测定表明,一免背部皮下、腿部肌肉2点免疫0．2 mL／只,间隔21 d 加强免疫为最佳免疫程序,免疫后35 d 抗体水平达到峰值,显著高于Ⅰ和Ⅱ组。对照组小鼠免疫攻毒后出现消瘦、被毛凌乱、精神紧张等临床症状,淋巴结肿胀、出血、肺脏出血等病理变化,相对日增重显著降低,PCV-2核酸载量差异在103以上等临床变化。本研究以 Balb／c 小鼠为动物模型建立了 PCV-2疫苗免疫效力检验方法,优化了小鼠免疫途径及剂量,确定了相应的检测指标及技术参数,为 PCV-2疫苗免疫效力检验奠定了基础。     

海兰褐蛋鸡早期生长模型的拟合与分析简

为了掌握海兰褐蛋鸡早期的生长发育规律,运用Gompertz、vonBertalanffy和Richards三种非线性模型对0～10周龄的海兰褐蛋鸡体重数据进行了拟合与分析。结果表明：三种模型均能很好地模拟海兰褐蛋鸡早期的生长过程,拟合度均在0．99以上,但vonBertalanffij模型拟合效果更好,此模型拟合的生长曲线拐点周龄为19．98周,拐点体重为2358．44g,最大周增重为159．94g／周。yonBertalanffy模型在模拟海兰褐蛋鸡早期生长状况方面为理想的数学模型,此研究结果可作为科学饲养该鸡种的重要参考。     

我国实现既定碳排放强度的预测分析

基于1991—2011年的数据,采用多项式和趋势移动平均预测模型预测了2012—2020年我国的GDP和CO2排放量,并经过一定修正,预测2020年我国的单位GDP的碳排放量为1.68 t/万元,比2005年减排45%,达到我国提出的到2020年单位GDP的碳排放比2005年减排40%⁴5%的目标.