Developing a dynamic growth model for teak plantations in India

Background： Tectono grandis （teak） is one of the most important tropical timber species occurring naturally in India. Appropriate growth models, based on advanced modeling techniques, are not available but are necessary for the successful management of teak stands in the country. Long-term forest planning requires mathematical models and the principles of Dynamical System Theory provide a solid foundation for these.
Methods： The state-space approach makes it possible to accommodate disturbances and avarying environment. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a dynamic growth model based on the limited data, consisting of three annual measurements, collected from 22 teak sample plots in Karnataka, Southern India.
Results： A biologically consistent whole-stand growth model has been presented which uses the state-space approach for modelling rates of change of three state-variables viz., dominant height, stems per hectare and stand basal area. Moreover, the model includes a stand volume equation as an output function to estimate this variable at any point in time. Transition functions were fitted separately and simultaneously. Moreover, a continuous autoregressive error structure is also included in the modelling process. For fitting volume equation, generalized method of moments was used to get efficient parameter estimates under heteroscedastic conditions.
Conclusions： A simple model containing few free parameters performed well and is particularly well suited to situations where available data is scarce.     

Spatial and temporal trends in abundance of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in Newfoundland with emphasis on impacts of the 1992 closure of the commercial fishery

Closure of the Newfoundland commercial Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., fishery in 1992 was the most restrictive measure introduced to help rebuild depressed local stocks of salmon. Here, the effects of the closure are evaluated by analysing trends in abundance since 1984, and estimates of survival in both freshwater and marine environments derived from enumeration of salmon at fish counting facilities. While freshwater production of smolts generally has been maintained, marine survival rates remain low (2–10%), and highly variable. Overall, total stock size differs little from that prior to the closure of the commercial salmon fishery. Spawning escapements have increased by a factor of 2 or 3 in some rivers, but in other areas total returns are lower on average than those prior to the fishery closure. Factors other than exploitation are contributing to lack of stock recovery, resulting in continued conservation concerns.     

Efficiency of presence-absence sampling used to estimate the mean abundance of fish eggs

ABSTRACT:   Statistical properties of estimators relating to the mean abundance of fish eggs were investigated using the data from the presence-absence sampling (PAS) and counting sampling (CS). PAS, which focuses on the presence-absence of eggs in a sample, is more cost-effective yet is unlikely to give more precise estimates than CS, which counts the number of eggs. But when limitations are given on the sampling cost and number of sampling stations, PAS may have advantages. This study shows that the mean square error (MSE) of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) based on PAS may become smaller than the MSE of the MLE based on counting data when the number of observations for PAS becomes larger. The observation number for PAS is determined, which minimizes the MSE of a combined estimator from the two MLE under a restriction of the total cost of observation. A dual problem is also solved. It is shown that MSE of the MLE in PAS is a monotone increasing function of the oversight probability. PAS becomes more informative as the distribution of the number of eggs is more aggregated.     

Survival of reared Atlantic salmon and sea trout in relation to marine conditions of smolt year in the Baltic Sea

The marine survival of hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and sea trout (Salmo trutta) was examined in relation to marine conditions during post-smolt migration and in relation to stock traits. In 1970–2001, Carlin-tagged smolts were released in the Iijoki and Oulujoki rivers, the northern Baltic Sea. When both species were analysed together, the abundance of the three prey fish, herring (Clupea harengus), smelt (Osmerus eperlanus) and vendace (Coregonus albula) correlated positively with the survival of salmonids. In addition, the increase in smolt size appeared to improve the survival rate. Sea surface temperature (SST) may have affected indirectly through the abundance of prey fish during the post-smolt migration of salmon and sea trout. The smelt and vendace showed a statistical effect on survival only when the temperature effects were not included in the models. In sea trout, an increasing smolt length was not significantly correlated with the survival in good herring recruitment years, but in poor years survival increased very rapidly with increasing smolt size. The recapture rates of the salmonids tended to decrease between the years 1970 and 2001. During the same time period, the June SST slightly decreased. The positive correlation between the annual summer SST and recapture rate of salmon may partly explain the decreasing trend in recapture rates. An increase in smolt size did not compensate for the decline in the recapture rate of either species.     

淀山湖鱼类群落结构多样性的年际变化

淀山湖是上海市内陆水域最大的淡水湖泊,主要的淡水渔业水域和水产品来源地,也是重要的水生生物保护基地。为了评估增殖放流和生态环境变化对淀山湖鱼类群落结构变化的影响,本研究以2010-2012年淀山湖的渔业调查资料为基础,对该湖泊的鱼类优势种组成和多样性指数进行年际变化分析,并应用丰度生物量曲线方法对该湖的鱼类群落状况进行分析。结果表明:2010-2012年淀山湖鱼种类数基本稳定,基本鱼种组成变化不显著,优势鱼种组成趋势渐以小型鱼类为主;群落结构多样性指数年间差异不显著(P0.05);ABC曲线显示2010-2012这三年淀山湖群落的数量优势度曲线均高于生物量的优势度曲线,鱼类群落结构仍处于严重干扰状态。因此,建议改善增殖放流鱼种和加强渔业管理,以维持淀山湖鱼类群落的稳定。     

中国长江流域冬麦区小麦品种试验精确度回溯分析

为全面评价长江流域小麦品种区域试验精确度的发展水平,分析了2011—2021年度中国长江流域冬麦区单年单点和一年多点小麦区域试验的试验精确度和品种比较精确度,对产量、穗数、穗粒数、千粒重、生育期、株高、基本苗和最高茎数等性状的试验精确度差异进行了比较。结果表明,长江流域冬麦区单年单点品种试验精确度较好,试验误差变异系数(CEV)在5%和10%以下的试点数占比分别在60%和95%以上,但品种比较精确度(RLSD_0.05)在3%以下的试验比例不到10%,长江上游和中下游单点品种试验RLSD_0.05在10%以下的试点数分别占比约60%和90%。一年多点区域试验精确度和品种比较精确度显著优于单年单点试验,上游和中下游试验平均CEV分别在8%和5%以下。采用试点固定模型时,长江上游和中下游试验平均RLSD_0.05分别为2.19%和1.49%,符合国家小麦品种审定标准对品种比较精确度的要求;但采用试点随机模型时,小麦品种试验尚无法鉴别出品种间3%的产量差异。试验对生育期、株高、基本苗、千粒重和穗数的RLSD_0.05优于产量性状,而最高茎数和穗粒数的RLSD_0.05较低。     

Degradation of the crocodile population in the Olifants River Gorge of Kruger National Park,South Africa

• 1. Top predators such as crocodiles often reflect ecosystem degradation. The recent spate of close to 200 Nile crocodile deaths may reflect the ecosystem state of the Olifants–Letaba River system in the Kruger National Park. This paper investigates whether the crocodile deaths were indeed the consequence of a rare and perhaps acute event given the variability in annual population growth rates of crocodilians.
• 2. Spotlight‐ and helicopter‐based surveys designed to correct for availability and detectability bias were used to estimate population sizes of crocodiles from 2008 to 2010 in and around the Olifants River Gorge, the focal area of crocodile deaths.
• 3. Correction factors derived from individually observed crocodiles for both spotlight‐ and helicopter‐based counts were lower than those typically used for Nile crocodiles as well as other crocodile species. Even so, corrected spotlight‐ and helicopter‐based estimates were comparable and the number of crocodiles in the focal study area declined significantly from 780 (95% CI: 637–1222) to between 460 (spotlight estimate, 95% CI 375–665) and 505 (aerial estimate, 95% CI: 559–1746) during the period of crocodile deaths. The average annual decline of 35% was at the lower end of the distribution of annual population growth rates across the rivers of Kruger National Park.
• 4. The crocodile deaths reflect a possible rare event that suggests a degraded crocodile population, possibly the consequences of broad‐scale cascades of environmental deterioration of the Olifants–Letaba River system.
• 5. Even so, the potential risk of local demise of the population in the focal study area in the short term may be diminished through evolutionary, demographic and spatial resilience inherent within crocodiles that can accommodate the as yet unknown disease dynamics of pansteatitis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

     

Sardine and anchovy regime fluctuations of abundance in four regions of the world oceans: a workshop report

Regimes of high abundance of sardine (Sardinops sagax and Sardina pilchardus) have alternated with regimes of high abundance of anchovy (Engraulis spp.) in each of the five regions of the world where these taxa co-occur and have been extensively fished. When one taxon has been plentiful, the other has usually been at a reduced level of abundance, and vice versa. Changes in the four heavily fished regions that support S. sagax–the Japanese, Californian, Humboldt, and Benguela systems–from a regime dominated by one taxon to a high level of abundance of the other have occurred more or less simultaneously. In the Pacific Ocean, sardines have tended to increase during periods of increasing global air and sea temperatures and anchovies to decrease. The Japanese system is dominated by sardines to a greater extent than the other systems, and sardines off Japan appear to increase as the Kuroshio Current cools. At the eastern edge of the Pacific Ocean, sardines colonize cooler areas during periods of warming. The Benguela system is out of phase with the three Pacific systems. The four systems all appeared to be in a state of flux in the 1980s. Increased abundance of the subdominant taxon is often one of the first signs of change. Sardines are relatively sedentary in refuge areas when scarce but change behavior to become highly migratory and colonize cooler areas when abundant. Anchovies, by contrast, expand around a fixed geographic center.