检查法林分生长预测及择伐模拟研究

检查法是一种适合于异龄林经营的集约作业方法，由于目前试验时间还较短（第１择伐周期１９８７－１９９２年），需要对其长期经营效果作出预测。文中提出了一种修正参数预测模型（ＭＰＰＭ）和线性规划方法相结合对于林分进行生长预测和择伐模拟研究的方法。拟合林分直径分布采用了形状灵活的Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布形式，使得这种方法很适合于异龄林分（反Ｊ形直径分布）的生长预测（当然也适于同龄林），特别是当径阶株数出现突然变化     

落叶松人工林间伐技术优化研究*

本文以林分生长模型为基础，将林分的经营指数作为状态变量，将主伐时林分平均直径作为目标，将达到这一目标时林分总收获蓄积量作为指标函数，建立了离散确定性动态规划模型，编制了计算机模拟系统。利用此系统即可对落叶松不同培育目标下的最佳间伐时间、间伐强度和主伐年龄等进行决策。结果表明，优化决策方法在保留株数、间伐次数和总收获蓄积量上都优于一般决策方法，它既可对落叶松林分进行生长预测，也可为制定经营单位的经营     

基于多指标区间数关联分析的相对隶属度方法

针对具有区间数的多指标决策问题,借鉴一种逼近于理想点(TOPS IS)分析方法的思想,采用区间数灰色关联度的计算方法,对正、负关联度,利用相对隶属度方法对多方案进行排序,给出了解决区间数多指标决策问题的计算步骤.本文将整个评价方案看作一个整体来寻求正、负理想方案,该方法避免了区间数难以排序的问题,具有可理解性和可操作性.最后给出实例以验证该方法的有效性和实用性.     

城市道路网信息管理系统研究

针对国内城市交通规划缺乏完整的道路信息资料 ,提出了如何利用功能完善的EMME/2交通规划软件结合中国的交通特性 ,进行城市路网信息资料的获取 ,并提出相应的数据库记录规定 ,据此研制开发了城市道路网信息管理系统。     

Cutting technic forPinus elliottii plantation of the multi-benefit management pattern

The cutting technic for thePinus elliottii plantation of the multi-benefit management pattern in the hilly region of Jiangxi Province was studied by establishing the model of growth progress according to Richards function and simulating the tending cutting on computer by use of dynamic programming. The results showed that the best time for the initial thinning was at tree age of 8–10 and final cutting was at tree age of 25. The optimal thinning project was 3 times of thinning cutting including the first thinning, and the thinning time was at tree ages of 8, 12 and 16, respectively. Their thinning intensities were separately 950, 700 and 300 trunks per hectare, and the preserved density was 550 trunks per hectare until the final cutting Foundation item: This study was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (A grant 0330023) Biography: WANG Qing-chun (1970-), male, Ph. Doctor, Senior Engineer in Academy of Forest Inventory & Planning, Jiangxi, Nanchang 330046, P.R. China. Responsible editor: Song Funan     

Improving adoptability of farm forestry in the Philippine uplands: a linear programming model

In the Philippines, smallholder farmers have become major timber producers. But the systems of timber production practiced have several limitations. In intercropping systems, the practice of severe branch and/or root pruning reduces tree-crop competition and increases annual crop yields, but is detrimental to tree growth and incompatible with commercial timber production. In even-aged woodlots, lack of regular income and poor tree growth, resulting from farmers’ reluctance to thin their plantations, are major constraints to adoption and profitable tree farming. In the municipality of Claveria, Misamis Oriental, the recent practice of planting trees on widely spaced (6–8 m) contour grass strips established for soil conservation suggests ways to improve the adoptability (i.e., profitability, feasibility and acceptability) of timber-based agroforestry systems. Assuming that financial benefits are the main objective of timber tree farmers, we develop a simple linear programming (LP) model for the optimal allocation of land to monocropping and tree intercropping that maximizes the net present value of an infinite number of rotations and satisfies farmers’ resource constraints and regular income requirements. The application of the LP model to an average farmer in Claveria showed that cumulative additions of widely spaced tree hedgerows provides higher returns to land, and reduce the risk of agroforestry adoption by spreading over the years labour and capital investment costs and the economic benefits accruing to farmers from trees. Therefore, incremental planting of widely spaced tree hedgerows can make farm forestry more adoptable and thus benefit a larger number of resource-constrained farmers in their evolution towards more diverse and productive agroforestry systems.     

森林资源动态变化预测模型

本文给出了不等间隔时序数列的CM(1,1)模型,并对广西融水县森林资源动态变化进行了预测。预测结果比较理想,模型精度97.2％,从而为森林资源部分数据更新提供了一个新方法。     

A Danish example of optimal thinning strategies in mixed-species forest under changing growth conditions caused by climate change

In this study, we analyse the economic and managerial aspects of option values related to having a mixed-species stand. As an example, we look at a mixed Norway spruce and Sitka spruce stand in Denmark when timing and intensity of future climate, and its effect on tree growth, are uncertain. Assuming that tree growth follows a discrete non-stationary stochastic process, we use dynamic programming to optimise the harvest distribution between the two species.

The results show that facing growth uncertainty caused by potential climate change implies an option value. Such uncertainty can be a potential advantage as long as we are able to maintain flexibility, keep decisions open, and there is a chance that climatic change will benefit some species. We analyse the model under different uncertainty assumptions and show that the larger changes we expect, the higher is the option value at any time during the stand’s life and, hence, we keep, on average, both tree species in the stand for a longer period of time. Moreover, we find that the adjustments may take place rather late in the rotation, a result brought about by the significance of the option value, which makes it optimal to maintain a reasonable stocking of both species.     

河南省林种结构调整的研究

根据１９９３年省森林资源清查、森林资源消耗量及消耗结构的调查资料，以可持续发展的理论为指导，采用线性规划对我省的林种结构进行了研究。研究结果：河南省现阶段的林种结构应为：用材林∶防护林∶经济林∶薪炭林∶特用林＝３４９∶１５９∶２３７∶２１１∶４４。     

山西石楼县生态林业工程建设中的土地合理利用

根据区域生态经济学原理 ,结合晋西石楼县生态林业工程建设的实践 ,分析了县域土地资源利用现状 ,进行了土地利用多目标综合规划 ,阐述了生态林业工程土地合理利用的途径 ,并对其战略决策进行了分析。