Using normative scenarios in landscape ecology

The normative landscape scenario is one of many types of scenario methods that are used by landscape ecologists. We describe how normative landscape scenarios are different from other types and how these differences create special potential for engaging science to build landscape policy and for exploring scientific questions in realistic simulated landscapes. We describe criteria and a method for generating normative scenarios to realize this potential in both policy and landscape ecology research. Finally, we describe how the method and criteria apply to an interdisciplinary project that proposed alternative scenarios for federal agricultural policy and related futures for agricultural watersheds in Iowa, USA.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial sensitivity of species habitat patterns to scenarios of land use change (Switzerland)

Long-term societal trends which include decreasing population in structurally poorer regions and changes in agricultural policies have been leading to land abandonment in various regions of Europe. One of the consequences of this development includes spontaneous forest regeneration of formerly open-land habitats with likely significant effects on plant and animal diversity. We assess potential effects of agricultural decline in Switzerland (41,000 km²) and potential impacts on the spatial distribution of seven open-land species (insects, reptile, birds) under land-use change scenarios: (1) a business-as-usual scenario that extrapolates trends observed during the last 15 years into the future, (2) a liberalisation scenario with limited regulation, and (3) a lowered agricultural production scenario fostering conservation. All scenarios were developed in collaboration with socio-economists. Results show that spontaneous reforestation is potentially minor in the lowlands since combinations of socio-economic (better accessibility), topographic (less steep slopes), and climatic factors (longer growing seasons) favour agricultural use and make land abandonment less likely. Land abandonment, spontaneous reforestation, and subsequent loss of open-land, however, are potentially pronounced in mountainous areas except where tourism is a major source of income. Here, socio-economic and natural conditions for cultivation are more difficult, leading to higher abandonment and thus reforestation likelihood. Evaluations for open-land species core habitats indicate pronounced spatial segregation of expected landscape change. Habitat losses (up to 59%) are observed throughout the country, particularly at high elevation sites in the Northern Alps. Habitat gains under the lowered agricultural production scenario range between 12 and 41% and are primarily observed for the Plateau and the Northern Alps.     

Scaling up nature-based solutions for climate-change adaptation: Potential and benefits in three European cities

Many exemplary projects have demonstrated that Nature-based Solutions (NBS) can contribute to climate change adaptation, but now the challenge is to scale up their use. Setting realistic policy goals requires knowing the amount of different NBS types that can fit in the urban space and the benefits that can be expected. This research aims to assess the potential for a full-scale implementation of NBS for climate-change adaptation in European cities, the expected benefits and co-benefits, and how these quantities relate to the urban structure of the cities.We selected three case studies: Barcelona (Spain), Malmö (Sweden), and Utrecht (the Netherlands), and developed six scenarios that simulate the current condition, the full-scale implementation of different NBS strategies (i.e., installing green roofs, de-sealing parking areas, enhancing vegetation in urban parks, and planting street trees), and a combination of them. Then we applied spatially-explicit methods to assess, for each scenario, two climate change-related benefits, i.e. heat mitigation and stormwater regulation, and three co-benefits, namely carbon storage, biodiversity potential, and overall greenness. Finally, by breaking down the results per land use class, we investigated how the potential and benefits vary depending on the urban form.Most scenarios provide multiple benefits, but each one is characterized by a specific mix. In all cities, a full-scale deployment of green roofs shows the greatest potential to reduce runoff and increase biodiversity, while tree planting -either along streets or in urban parks– produces the greatest impact on heat mitigation and greenness. However, these results entail interventions of different size and in different locations. Planting street trees maximizes interventions in residential areas, but key opportunities for integrating most NBS types also lie in commercial and industrial areas. The results on the pros and cons of each scenario can support policy-makers in designing targeted NBS strategies for climate change adaptation.