基于贡献度随机森林模型的公司债信用风险实证分析

运用贡献度随机森林方法（CRF）方法探讨公司债财务指标比率与其违约率的关系.运用连续属性离散化方法（OB）进行财务指标最优降维；运用WOE变换进行模型变量约简.研究表明，CRF模型的分类性能显著优于其他模型，测试集评估总体正确率达90.47%，AUC统计量、AR比率及K-S值分别提升了2.6%、7.6%、4.38%，变量贡献度量化了各财务指标对违约率影响，为诠释随机森林预测机制提供了依据.     

原始云冷杉、红松林树木生长对氮沉降的响应

本文通过野外控制试验，设置4个梯度的施氮处理，分别为对照(CK，不加氮)、低氮(T_L，5 g/(m2·a))、中氮(T_M，10 g/(m2·a))、高氮(T_H，15 g/(m2·a))，研究云冷杉红松林主要树种的径生长对氮沉降增加的响应。结果表明，枫桦径生长随氮添加梯度的增加出现了先促进后抑制的趋势；臭冷杉和红松径生长随氮添加梯度的增加而受到抑制，其中臭冷杉表现出明显的衰退现象甚至死亡；花楷槭则表现出较为复杂的响应，可能与该树种对不同梯度氮添加的响应机制不同有关。同时还发现，各处理、各树种的胸径大小与径生长量存在相关性，可能与树种年龄及其所处的生态位相关。研究表明，氮沉降改变树木生长速率和死亡率，可能影响地上生态系统碳库和整个生态系统碳循环。      

北京妙峰山森林文化条件价值评估

【目的】评价妙峰山森林文化价值，对我国其他地区的森林文化价值评估亦有一定的借鉴意义，为全面开展中国森林文化价值量化评估探索路径。【方法】采用条件价值评估法，调研受访者对森林文化的认同程度，评估妙峰山森林文化价值，继而采用逐步回归法分析受访者支付意愿的影响因素。【结果】古树名木、寓言典故和神山传说是受访者接触程度最高的文化符号；受访者了解森林文化的方式呈现多元化，互联网和书籍是最主要的途径；森林采摘是受访者最乐于接受的森林实践活动；94%以上的受访者认同森林具有文化价值，认可程度较高；舒缓心情是受访者最为认同的福利(占比为82.32%)，其次为锻炼身体(占比为62.20%)和休闲娱乐(占比为45.12%)；妙峰山森林文化的人均支付意愿为100元人民币，最重要的影响因素是个人年收入，其次是对森林文化价值的认同程度和学历；对所支付费用的使用透明度不放心是部分受访者拒绝支付的最主要原因；大部分受访者(占比为53.05%)愿意将所支付的费用使用在妙峰山森林文化艺术创作方面，捐款(占比为33.77%)是受访者最愿意接受的支付方式。【结论】理解偏差、心理账户偏差、支付方式偏差、投标起点偏差等多种偏差都会造成条件价值评估结果的误差。即使本研究只是初步估值，本研究的方法与结论仍然可以为建设与保护森林文化的相关管理决策提供依据。另外，如何提升国民对森林文化的认知和参与程度以及对森林文化所带来福利的感受，是提升国民对森林文化的认可程度，乃至提升森林文化价值的关键。森林文化的内涵随着人类对森林功能认识的不断深入、人类与森林相互作用关系的变化而不断拓展，如何正确认识森林文化并科学计量森林文化的价值仍然是一个有活力的课题，值得继续深入研究。     

Random point sampling to detect gain and loss in tree canopy cover in response to urban densification

Urban tree canopy cover (UTC) is a simple, and common, measure of urban forest resource. Urban infill development is likely to lead to losses in UTC under private tenure, at a time when local governments are setting ambitious targets to increase UTC overall. Simple, statistically rigorous methods are required to benchmark and track change in UTC, whilst identifying which land-use types or tenures experience change.We estimated UTC in six Melbourne suburbs in 2010 and 2015 by randomly sampling 2000 points across public land, public streetscapes and private land. We were able to detect a net change in UTC of <2% over five years to a 95% level of confidence. A significant net decrease in UTC (−2.4%) was only detected in one of the six suburbs. Two suburbs had a net increase in UTC by +2.7% over five years. On private land, there was often areas of UTC loss, but this was generally offset by canopy gain in other areas of the private realm as well as in streetscapes and public land. Losses in UTC on private land were mainly due to tree removal, with or without subsequent construction works.This study describes a simple, but statistically rigorous, method to quantify UTC change and the drivers of change in different land-use types and tenure. Despite studying two suburbs will high rates of infill development, only one suburb showed evidence of net UTC decrease. The ‘dynamic equilibrium’ in UTC, whereby canopy losses area approximately offset by concurrent canopy gain, means that ambitious targets being set by local governments to increase UTC may be difficult to achieve without changes in tree protection and infill development policy and planning.     

丘陵岗地人工防护林退化成因分析

以桃江县人工防护林为研究对象,分析了导致林地退化的主要原因,包括管护措施不到位、造林技术缺陷、自然灾害侵害、生理老化、环境污染等。针对退化原因,提出了相应的改造措施。     

四川会理县集体林权制度改革探讨

集体林权制度改革是林业建设的重要内容,分析四川会理县集体林权制度改革中存在的经营机制不活、管理模式落后、市场流转机制不活等问题,提出深入推进配套改革的建议。     

ArcPad在营造林外业调查系统中的应用

详细介绍了ArcPad在支持GIS的PDA设备中的应用技术,以营造林外业调查系统为例,详细给出了通过ArcPad结合空间数据库在PDA设备中构建营造林外业调查系统的方法和步骤。     

The routes to fruit: Governance of urban food trees in Canada

Interest in planting urban food trees (UFTs) in public spaces is growing in popularity as a form of urban greening and a potential food source. Currently there is minimal research on the governance and policy aspects of integrating food trees into cities. To fill this gap, we investigated the characteristics of UFT site governance and how it compares to current urban forest governance. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with relevant municipal officials in Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Victoria about their perspectives and involvement with UFT sites in their city. A scan of policy documents was completed to supplement the interviews. The interviews were analyzed using a deductive coding framework based on the Policy Arrangement Approach. We found that key actors at the UFT sites were local organizations and site champions, with minimal municipal engagement. Most site resources provided by municipalities were in-kind. There are also basic knowledge gaps about how to care for UFTs. Currently municipal by-laws prohibit the harvesting and removal of plant material, and are at odds with the purpose of UFT sites, with few municipalities fully integrating UFTs in policies. The primary discussion around UFTs centre concerns for public health and safety, management, and use of public space with limited discussions of benefits. This research demonstrates the value of co-governance models to support UFTs, while a shift in focus from risks to benefits could encourage additional resources and policy integration. Further, including UFTs into policy would also support foraging and food tree maintenance in public spaces, and more fully reflect the plurality of urban forest engagement.     

内蒙古桦木沟林场不同地貌野生花卉资源分布

内蒙古桦木沟林场地形地貌类型广泛,野花资源丰富,尚未得到有效开发。为了解野生花卉资源习性和生物学特征,开发利用野花资源,在路径调查的基础上,采用典型样地调查法,调查分析了其野花资源分布。共调查野花资源177种,隶属于40科129属,菊科、豆科、毛茛科等种类和种群数量较丰富。不同地貌Margalef丰富度指数1.35~8.28,Shannon-Wiener指数变异范围1.42~2.59,Simpson指数为0.59~0.96,湿地草甸、疏林草地物种多样性丰富,沙地多样性最低。湿度、光照等是影响野花多样性分布的重要因素。林场分布着丰富而有较大开发价值的喜光、耐荫、耐涝、喜湿、耐旱等不同生态型野生花卉。部分野生花卉资源濒危,亟需保护。     

帽儿山地区脂松种源试验林生长指标分析

引进优良的外来树种可以丰富本国或本地区林业建设的树种资源,增加木材产量和林产品的种类。通过对引进的美国东部7个脂松种源进行试验,得出更适宜栽植区的种源。在树高方面,较好的4个种源依次为MIDC(Dickenson County,Michigan)、MNCNF(Chippewa National Forest,Minnesota)、MIMC(Manistee County,Michigan)和WIOC(Oneida County,Wisconsin);2004年高生长较好的4个种源依次为WIOC、MIDC、MIMC和MNCNF;2005年高生长较好的4个种源依次为MIDC、MIMC、MNCNF和WIOC;地径较好的4个种源依次为MIDC、WIOC、MIMC、MNCNF。该4个种源间各项生长指标差异不显著;在保存率方面,7个种源间差异不明显。