Wood Production Potentials of Fenno-Scandinavian Forests Under Nature-Orientated Management

In Finland, Norway and Sweden forest management is presently changing towards a more nature-orientated management. In this study the European Forest Information SCENario (EFISCEN) model was applied to determine how this change might affect the potential for wood production in the three countries. Three different management regimes, traditional, traditional with nature conservation (''conservation''), and longer rotations with nature conservation (''conservation +''), were combined with two alternative felling levels. The results show that conserving 6.1-8.8% of the older forests in the southern regions had no limiting effects on production levels, as foreseen by the European Timber Trend Studies V by the UN-ECE for Finland and Sweden. Under the conservation + scenario, maximum sustainable felling levels decreased to 84, 79 and 72% of the present levels in Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively. Increasing the rotation length put more pressure on the older age classes and thus did not increase the average age of the forest. If the consumption of wood increases as quickly as indicated by other studies, it will be hard to fulfil that demand and at the same time conserve considerable areas of forest in the southern regions of the countries.     

国家土地督察制度建设中存在的问题与建议

分析了国家土地督察制度实施5年来存在的主要问题,主要是:土地督察制度建设的法制化不足;土地督察业务建设不规范;工作机制不完善;土地督察队伍仍需加强。针对这些问题,提出了推进土地督察制度建设的建议:加强土地督察制度的法制化和制度化建设;完善土地督察核心业务建设;完善土地督察工作机制;加强土地督察队伍建设。     

内蒙古赤峰市敖包小流域水土资源合理利用研究

调整农、林、牧结构，合理利用水土资源是干旱、半干旱低山丘陵区农业走出低谷，摆脱困境的重要措施之一。本文通过对敖包流域水土资源评价，系统环境辨识与诊断，明确系统发展优势和存在问题，运用系统工程的理论和方法确立了系统优化方案，为流域水土资源合理利用提供了决策依据。     

宁夏盐池半荒漠风沙区PRED综合研究系统动态仿真

本文分析了ＰＲＥＤ综合研究的特点及应用系统动力学模型于盐池半荒漠风沙区进行综合研究的可能性，并且利用系统动力学专用语言ＤＹＮＡＭＯ进行建模，并对仿真结果进行分析，其结果证明利用系统动力学模型进行ＰＲＥＤ研究是行之有效的方法。     

河套灌区粮食作物分层种植超吨粮田小气候生态效应研究

本文采用一元二次回归分析方法，对黄河河套灌区超吨粮田不同层次的光温风分布状况进行了定量分析，求算了三因子在不同层次的最佳指标值Ｘ１及其相应的期望产量值Ｙ＿（ｍａｘ）。鉴于植株２／３处光温风分布综合反映了群体结构的生产潜力，故组建了２／３层次的多元非线性复合小气候效应模型。给出了亩产１２５０．０公斤的超吨粮理论指标。指出实现这一理论产量的关键，是广泛推广玉米催芽栽培技术。     

地理专家系统的知识表示与知识库组织

本文介绍了地理专家系统的知识表示和知识库组织的基本原理和方法，并以水土保持专家系统为例，阐述了水土保持专家知识的分类分级方法，以及在水土保持专家系统中知识表示的基本规划和知识库中专家知识的组织方式。在知识获取机构中，系统提供了以辅助编辑手段为主，自然语言理解为辅的人机交互界面，从而简化了专家知识的录入过程，提高了系统的工作效率。     

甘肃秦王川灌区土壤盐分特征及次生盐渍化预测

在秦王川灌区水文地质条件和土壤盐分含量特征调查研究的基础上,采用有限差分法建立了预测模型,对灌溉实施后1～5年间地下水位及其埋深变化进行了预测。结果表明,地下水位呈普遍抬升趋势,可导致约2000ha土地产生次生盐渍化。如果不及时采取防治措施,土壤次生盐渍化面积还会进一步扩大。     

Transmission of classical swine fever virus within herds during the 1997-1998 epidemic in The Netherlands

In this paper, we describe the transmission of Classical Swine Fever virus (CSF virus) within herds during the 1997–1998 epidemic in the Netherlands. In seven herds where the infection started among individually housed breeding stock, all breeding pigs had been tested for antibodies to CSF virus shortly before depopulation. Based upon these data, the transmission of CSF virus between pigs was described as exponential growth in time with a parameter r, that was estimated at 0.108 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.060–0.156). The accompanying per-generation transmission (expressed as the basic reproduction ratio, R₀) was estimated at 2.9. Based upon this characterisation, a calculation method was derived with which serological findings at depopulation can be used to calculate the period in which the virus was with a certain probability introduced into that breeding stock. This model was used to estimate the period when the virus had been introduced into 34 herds where the infection started in the breeding section. Of these herds, only a single contact with a herd previously infected had been traced. However, in contrast with the seven previously mentioned herds, only a sample of the breeding pigs had been tested before depopulation (as was the common procedure during the epidemic). The observed number of days between the single contact with an infected herd and the day of sampling of these 34 herds fitted well in the model. Thus, we concluded that the model and transmission parameter was in agreement with the transmission between breeding pigs in these herds.

Because of the limited sample size and because it was usually unknown in which specific pen the infection started, we were unable to estimate transmission parameters for weaned piglets and finishing pigs from the data collected during the epidemic. However, from the results of controlled experiments in which R₀ was estimated as 81 between weaned piglets and 14 between heavy finishing pigs (Laevens et al., 1998a. Vet. Quart. 20, 41–45; Laevens et al., 1999. Ph.D. Thesis), we constructed a simple model to describe the transmission of CSF virus in compartments (rooms) housing finishing pigs and weaned piglets. From the number of pens per compartment, the number of pigs per pen, the numbers of pigs tested for antibodies to CSF virus and the distribution of the seropositive pigs in the compartment, this model gives again a period in which the virus most probably entered the herd. Using the findings in 41 herds where the infection started in the section of the finishers or weaned piglets of the age of 8 weeks or older, and of which only a single contact with a herd previously infected was known, there was no reason to reject the model. Thus, we concluded that the transmission between weaned piglets and finishing pigs during the epidemic was not significantly different from the transmission observed in the experiments.     

Use of Akaike information criteria for model selection and inference. An application to assess prevention of gastrointestinal parasitism and respiratory mortality of Guinean goats in Kolda,Senegal

A field experiment was carried out in Kolda (southern Senegal) from July 1986 to July 1988. Its goals were to: (1) describe the patterns of mortality of female Guinean goats by age, season and year; (2) assess preventive measures against respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal parasitism in reducing mortality; and (3) estimate the overall impact of these measures on survival to 1 year of age. Preventive measures for respiratory disease included vaccination against peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and pneumonic pasteurellosis (Pasteurella multocida types A and D). Control of gastrointestinal parasites was by deworming does with morantel (7.5 mg kg⁻¹, three times during the rainy season). The effects of vaccines and deworming were tested in a randomised factorial field experiment with villages being the experimental units. A total of 19 villages, 113 goat herds and 1458 goats were included in the study.

Generalised linear models of survival for five cohorts of goats (defined by five different birth seasons) used a binomial assumption for the response distribution and a complementary log–log link. Explanatory variables included age, season, year, vaccination, deworming and their interactions. A complex a priori model was built on the basis of previous epidemiological knowledge; a purposively selected set of simpler models was compared to this full model by the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and derived statistics. Inference on 1-year survival and treatment effects accounted for model-selection uncertainty. It was carried out with a bootstrap procedure and used information from the whole set of selected models.

Large variations in mortality by year and season were observed but no regular seasonal pattern was apparent. Mortality probabilities of kids in dewormed groups decreased quickly after birth, but remained elevated up to 9 months of age in the non-dewormed groups. Deworming lowered the risk of mortality. Vaccination alone was not protective (except during an observed outbreak of PPR).     

多系配套杂交群体遗传结构分析

利用8个微卫星标记对杜长大三元杂交群体5个种群，斯格配套系8个种群的遗传结构进行了分析。通过计算等位基因频率、基因杂合度、平均杂合度、多态信息含量、纯种间的遗传距离、F-统计量和迁移率进行分析。结果表明各群体的平均基因杂合度存在一定差异。纯种、祖代、父母代、商品代群体的平均座位杂合度和多态信息含量随着群体在杂交繁育体系中位置的由高到低而逐渐升高。Nei氏标准遗传距离显示，父本和母本间的遗传距离大，遗传距离大的父本和母本用于杂交，产生的杂种优势最大，这与实际的杂交组合一致。Fst衡量等位基因频率群体间方差，杜长大群体大约总变异的1．02％～15．60％来自种群间，而剩余的84．40％～98．98％来自种群内，斯格群体大约总变异的3．02％～15．22％来自种群间，而剩余的84．78％～96．98％来自种群内，斯格和杜长大纯种的遗传分化处于较小到中等之间。