A context for recruitment correlations: why marine fisheries biologists should still look for them

In many cases when ecologists want to investigate a process, they often look for the best system on which to conduct the research, "best" meaning that the possibility of discovering mechanisms is optimized or made easier in some way. In fisheries we do it backwards. The species and system are given to us by economics, and we then fly in the face of the difficult circumstances to find mechanisms that are elusive anyway. These difficult circumstances constitute in some sense the first set of statistical problems. Using examples from the Northeast Pacific, I review the characteristics of cohort time series that make some species more tractable; propose a conscious process of conceptualization to assist in the formulation of clear, germane hypotheses; highlight the contrast between modeling in the sense of statistical fitting versus simulation models of processes; explore how the first round of models integrates with the second round of planning for new data collection at sea and in the lab; and, finally, propose how to judge success in terms of an operational approach.     

Population‐level effects of egg predation on a native planktivore in a large freshwater lake

Using a 37‐year recruitment time series, we uncovered a field pattern revealing a strong, inverse relationship between bloater Coregonus hoyi recruitment success and slimy sculpin Cottus cognatus biomass in Lake Michigan (United States), one of the largest freshwater lakes of the world. Given that slimy sculpins (and deepwater sculpin Myoxocephalus thompsonii) are known egg predators that spatiotemporally overlap with incubating bloater eggs, we used recently published data on sculpin diets and daily ration to model annual bloater egg consumption by sculpins for the 1973–2010 year‐classes. Although several strong year‐classes were produced in the late 1980s when the proportion of eggs consumed by slimy sculpins was extremely low (i.e., <0.001) and several weak year‐classes were produced when the proportion of bloater eggs consumed was at its highest (i.e., >0.10–1.0), egg predation failed to explain why recruitment was weak for the 1995–2005 year‐classes when the proportion consumed was also low (i.e., <0.02). We concluded that egg predation by slimy and deepwater sculpins could have limited bloater recruitment in some years, but that some undetermined factor was more important in many other years. Given that slimy sculpin densities are influenced by piscivorous lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, the restoration of which in Lake Michigan has lagged behind those in lakes Superior and Huron, our study highlights the importance of an ecosystem perspective when considering population dynamics of fishes.     

Contrasting population demographics and reproductive investment of white crappie in three eutrophic reservoirs

Abstract White crappie, Pomoxis annularis Rafinesque, provides important sport fisheries across North America but sometimes exhibits slow growth and fails to reach sizes acceptable to anglers. Three dissimilar white crappie populations were studied to assess whether differences in growth were associated with size and age at maturity and subsequent larval production. Similar to other species, female white crappie matured at younger ages and smaller sizes and contained larger ovaries in the population with the slowest growth; this population also had the lowest annual mortality. Larval production (number m^?3) in this population was intermediate to that of the other populations. Attempts to improve growth of white crappie in the slow‐growing population will probably be hindered by these individuals’ greater reproductive investment, which reduces the amount of energy available for somatic growth.     

Definition and clinical evaluation of a recruiting airway pressure based on the specific lung elastance in anesthetized dogs

ObjectiveTo determine the specific lung elastance (SE_L) in anesthetized dogs and to evaluate the efficacy of a SE_L-based recruiting airway pressure (RP_aw) at improving global and regional lung aeration.Study designRetrospective and prospective clinical study.AnimalsA total of 28 adult dogs were included in the retrospective study and six adult dogs in the prospective study.MethodsRetrospective study: SE_L and SE_L-based RP_aw were determined using previously published data. In mechanically ventilated dogs undergoing thoracic computed tomography (CT), SE_L was calculated as ΔP_L/(V_T/EELV), where ΔP_L is the driving transpulmonary pressure, V_T is the tidal volume and EELV is the end-expiratory lung volume. The ratio of lung to respiratory system elastance (E_L/E_rs) was determined. SE_L and E_L/E_rs were used to calculate the SE_L-based RP_aw. Prospective study: dogs underwent thoracic CT at end-expiration and at end-inspiration using the SE_L-based RP_aw, and global and regional aeration was determined. For analysis of regional aeration, lungs were divided into cranial, intermediate and caudal regions. Regional compliance was also calculated. A p value <0.05 was considered significant.ResultsThe SE_L and E_L/E_rs were 12.7 ± 3.1 cmH₂O and 0.54 ± 0.07, respectively. The SE_L-based RP_aw was 29.1 ± 7.6 cmH₂O. In the prospective study, the RP_aw was 28.2 ± 1.3 cmH₂O. During RP_aw, hyperinflation increased (p = 0.0003) whereas poorly aerated (p < 0.0001) and nonaerated (p = 0.01) tissue decreased. Normally aerated tissue did not change (p = 0.265). Regional compliance was higher in the intermediate (p = 0.0003) and caudal (p = 0.034) regions compared with the cranial region. Aeration did not differ between regions (p > 0.05).Conclusions and clinical relevanceAn SE_L-based RP_aw reduces poorly and nonaerated lung tissue in anesthetized dogs. In nonsurgical anesthetized dogs, an RP_aw near 30 cmH₂O is effective at improving lung aeration.     

Growth and production of Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus) in nursery habitats of the Gulf of Alaska

Nursery areas for juvenile fishes are often important for determining recruitment in marine populations by providing habitats that can maximize growth and thereby minimize mortality. Pacific ocean perch (POP, Sebastes alutus) have an extended juvenile period where they inhabit rocky nursery habitats. We examined POP nursery areas to link growth potential to recruitment. Juvenile POP were captured from nursery areas in 2004 and 2008, and estimated growth rates ranged from ?0.19 to 0.60 g day^?1 based on differences in size between June and August. Predicted growth rates from a bioenergetics model ranged from 0.05 to 0.49 g day^?1 and were not significantly different than observed. Substrate preferences and the distribution of their preferred habitats were utilized to predict the extent of juvenile POP nursery habitat in the Gulf of Alaska. Based on densities of fish observed on underwater video transects and the spatial extent of nursery areas, we predicted 278 and 290 million juvenile POP were produced in 2004 and 2008. Growth potential for juvenile POP was reconstructed using the bioenergetics model, spring zooplankton bloom timing and duration and bottom water temperature for 1982–2008. When a single outlying recruitment year in 1986 was removed, growth potential experienced by juvenile POP in nursery areas was significantly correlated to the recruitment time‐series from the stock assessment, explaining ～30% of the variability. This research highlights the potential to predict recruitment using habitat‐based methods and provides a potential mechanism for explaining some of the POP recruitment variability observed for this population.     

Interannual differences in growth and hatch‐date distributions of early juvenile European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay: implications for recruitment

In order to understand better the recruitment variability in European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay, it is important to investigate the processes that affect survival during the early life stages. Anchovy juvenile growth trajectories and hatch‐date distributions were inferred over a 3‐year period based on otolith microstructure analysis. Otolith growth trajectories showed a characteristic shape depending on their hatch‐date timing. Earlier‐born juveniles had notably broader maximum increments than later born conspecifics, resulting in higher growth rates. This observation suggests that early hatching would be beneficial for larval and juvenile growth, and, therefore, survival. The estimated juvenile hatch‐date distributions were relatively narrow compared with the extended anchovy spawning season (March–August) in the Bay of Biscay and indicated that only individuals originated mainly from the summer months (June–August) survived until autumn. Hatch‐date distributions were markedly different among years and seemed to influence the interannual recruitment strength of anchovy. We conclude that years characterized by juvenile survivors originating from the peak spawning period (May and June) would lead to considerable recruitment success. Downwelling events during the peak spawning period seem to affect larval survival. Furthermore, size‐dependent overwinter mortality would be an additional process that regulates recruitment strength in the anchovy population in the Bay of Biscay.     

Climate variability and marine survival of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Oregon production area

Time series of adult recruitment for natural runs of coho salmon from the Oregon coastal region (1970–94) and marine survival of hatchery-reared coho salmon from California to Washington (1960–94) are significantly correlated with a suite of meteorological and oceanographic variables related to the biological productivity of the local coastal region. These variables include strong upwelling, cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong wind mixing, a deep and weakly stratified mixed layer, and low coastal sea level, indicating strong transport of the California Current. Principal component analysis indicates that these variables work in concert to define the dominant modes of physical variability, which appear to regulate nutrient availability and biological productivity. Multiple regression analysis suggests that coho marine survival is significantly and independently related to the dominant modes acting over this region in the periods when the coho first enter the ocean and during the overwintering/spring period prior to their spawning migration. Linear relationships provided good fits to the data and were robust, capable of predicting randomly removed portions of the data set.     

Recruitment of catarina scallop (Argopecten ventricosus) larvae on artificial collectors off the NE coast of the Gulf of California

We evaluated recruitment of larvae of catarina scallop, Argopecten ventricosus, in the area of Puerto Peñasco, NE Gulf of California. We moored artificial collectors in six sites from June 2007 to August 2008 and replaced them every 2 months. We used monthly (July 2002–September 2011) sea surface temperature (SST, °C) and surface chlorophyll‐a concentration (SSChl, mg m^?3) Aqua/MODIS satellite data to describe seasonal environmental behaviour study area. Also, we recorded bottom temperature at each site every 4 h, and every 2 months measured sea surface salinity, temperature and dissolved oxygen. We used a repeated measures anova to evaluate differences in the number of recruited spat between main factors, and analysed the presence of multimodal spat shell size frequency distributions. Overall, spat recruitment was negatively correlated with seawater temperature and showed higher spat recruitment abundances throughout winter, which is the season with the highest surface chlorophyll a concentration. We estimated multimodal shell size frequency distributions characterized by more than one modal size. The natural collection of A. ventricosus spat on artificial collectors in the area can be successfully performed over a protracted period (November–December to May–June). Our results extend the area where collection of A. ventricosus spat can be successful.     

Dual effects of reversed winter–spring temperatures on year‐to‐year variation in the recruitment of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus)

To clarify the effects of temperature on the recruitment of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the North Pacific, we investigated the influence of winter surface temperature (WST) on spawners at the time of maturity around the spawning grounds and the influence of ambient spring temperature on larvae using estimated temperature (ET) obtained from particle tracking experiments. We found a significant positive correlation between ET approximately 10 days following hatching and the recruitment per spawning stock biomass (RPS) after 2000. The closer (more meandering) the Kuroshio Current (KC) axis was in relation to the spawning ground, the higher (lower) the spring surface temperature and the higher (lower) RPS was in the spawning ground. In contrast, WST inside KC near the maturity/spawning ground was significantly negatively correlated with RPS. A significant negative correlation between the temperatures in winter and spring was detected in the area after 2000, when the conditions of the Pacific decadal oscillation index and the stability of the Kuroshio Extension were synchronous, indicating that KC shifted northward during this time. The reversed temperature pattern was consistent with the winter–spring movement of KC axis in the offshore direction and was correlated with the winter–spring difference in the intensity of the Aleutian low. These results suggest that the annual variation in chub mackerel recruitment after 2000 was strongly affected by the combined effects of ambient temperature because of the reversal of conditions that occurred between winter and spring around the maturity/spawning ground, which was related to the KC path.