浅谈几种概率分布之间的相互关系

本文简述了几种常用的概率分布之间的相互关系     

线性红利界下带干扰风险模型的破产概率

考虑到保险公司在实际经营中收益所具有的不确定性和分红策略，建立一类具有线性红利界和带随机扰动的双复合Poisson风险模型，利用鞅方法给出模型关于破产概率的一个定理及上界．     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

Parsimonious Covering Probability Model for Turbogenerator Vibration Faulty Diagnosis

The turbogenerator vibration faults have the character of variety. Many faults often occur synchronously. This paper introduces a diagnosing model based on parsimonious covering theory and probability. A model for turtogenerator's fault diagnosis is proposed. The availability of this method is proved by two fault diagnosis examples of turbogenerator. The results show that the model proposed can be used for multi_fault diagnosis together. It may make up shortage for some of expert systems and neural networks in some aspect. From the practice,this model has higher reliability and practicability.     

A reservoir operational rule for irrigation in Japan

Operation of a reservoir for irrigation is more complicated and difficult than that for domestic water supply in Japan, owing to the fact that a requirement for irrigation takes various value depending upon effective rainfall on farmland, soil condition, and so on. Therefore, the reservoirs should be operated to correspond with demand, inflow, and unknown droughts occurring in the future. However, the reservoirs have been operated under operators' experiences without formal operational rules, because any effective theories or methods have been neither developed nor used in Japan at present.On operation of the reservoirs, there are two targets — promotion of effective release and restriction of release in preparation for droughts — conflicting with each other. It is useful to set up the operation with Required Storage for Drought Curve (RSDC) Method to achieve reasonable operation harmonizing those two targets. RSDC is composed with Target Line (TL) and Restrictive Release Lines (RRLs). TL is a target storage level to guarantee that storage will never empty until the end of the irrigation period under a certain probability. If actual storage remains above TL, effective release will be promoted. RRLs are storage levels pointing out the basis of restricting release. If actual storage falls below TL, release will be restrained in accordance with RRLs in order to get over uncertain droughts occurring in the future.In this paper, the theory of RSDC is described and the effectiveness of Rule Curve (RC) based on RSDC Method is illustrated by simulation on a single reservoir for irrigation.     

基于最大疑似度概率统计的不确定性网上故障诊断

针对汽车发动机异响类故障是故障诊断的难点,应用"基于最大疑似度的概率统计"法对汽车发动机的异响类不确定性故障进行了推理诊断,并用更新知识库的方法实现了对电脑常见故障现象的故障诊断,推理结果与实际情况基本一致,证明"基于最大疑似度的概率统计"法应用于不确定性故障诊断科学有效.     

大坝安全风险评估初探

根据风险理论在其它领域的应用实践，以及大坝安全风险管理在国外的应用经验，将大坝安全风险评估的原理、实施步骤等进行了阐述，探讨了大坝风险因素、失事树分析法及事件概率计算方法等诸多关键问题，并通过算例对文中所探讨的问题进行了较为明确的应用与说明。     

土壤风蚀影响因子分布规律研究的最大熵方法

土壤风蚀是一个综合的自然地理过程,包括气候、植被、土壤、地形地貌等多种因子。作为随机变量的风蚀因子,其分布规律直接或间接地影响着风沙的运动规律,一方面导致土壤风蚀程度及方向的变化,另一方面变量之间的非线性相互作用的结果导致风沙流的混沌特性。为此把影响风沙运动规律的各因子作为研究对象,应用最大熵原理与遗传算法相结合的方法,建立了风蚀影响因子概率密度函数模型,采用Matlab语言编制了相应的计算程序,并以阴山北部农牧交错带为例对所建模型的合理性和可行性进行了验证。结果表明,风蚀影响因子的熵概率密度函数不仅合理可行而且具有较高的精度。     

降低旬阳县核桃结果大小年发生机率的措施

本文阐述了旬阳核桃大小年发生的主要原因,同时结合生产实际提出了如何降低核桃大小年发生机率的措施。