浅谈几种概率分布之间的相互关系

本文简述了几种常用的概率分布之间的相互关系     

On farm observations to increase genetic gain in breeding schemes for village poultry production – A simulation study

To improve genetic gain of breeding programs for village poultry production, breeding schemes with observations obtained in village production systems using individual (VIO) and group recording (VGO) were examined under different levels of genotype-by-environment-interactions (GxE). GxE was modeled by varying the correlation between traits measured in the breeding station and village environments for bodyweight (r_{g_BW}) and egg production (r_{g_EP}). Relative and absolute genetic gains obtained from VIO and VGO were used for comparison between the schemes. Results showed that village observations significantly improved genetic gains compared to the scheme without birds tested in the village. The improvement was only slightly larger with individual observations than with group observations. Higher r_{g_BW} and r_{g_EP} led to lower relative genetic gain, but a higher absolute gain of VIO and VGO. It is recommended to apply a breeding scheme using group recording of village performance when strong GxE in breeding for village poultry is expected.     

基于仿人智能控制的长输管道新型退磁仪的智能化实现

对于年金的时间价值的研究,往往假定利率在整个期间内是固定不变的.但事实上,由于受到多种因素的影响,利率通常具有不确定性.因此,本文采用可逆MA(1)模型对随机利息力进行建模,在此基础上,研究了期末付虹式年金和期末付平顶虹式年金的时间价值问题,给出了上述两种形式年金现值的期望和方差的递推公式.通过数值仿真分析了相关参数对期末付虹式年金现值的期望值的影响,其结论对投资者的投资决策提供了参考依据.     

Reducing crude protein variability and maximizing savings when formulating corn-soybean meal-based feeds

Crude protein in corn and soybean meal have been documented to vary, and such inherent variability can result in under- or over-feeding of CP when feeds are formulated, leading to reduced bird growth, added input costs, and increased environmental pollution. The purpose of this study was to compare 2 grain-handling techniques and 2 feed formulation methods (linear vs. stochastic programming) to reduce CP variability in finished feeds and determine resulting costs or savings. The 2 grain-handling techniques were placing all the random batches of each delivered ingredient in to (1) a single bin (1-bin method) or (2) segregating above- and below-average samples into 2 bins (2-bin method). A fast way of estimating the composition of the ingredients is now available (near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy). Microsoft Excel workbooks were constructed to solve broiler starter feed formulation problems. Formulating feeds by linear and stochastic models based on the 2-bin method reduced CP variability by at least 50% compared with the 1-bin method. Formula cost was reduced by ˜20 cents per ton (averages of August 2012 United States ingredient prices) when the 2-bin method was used with the linear model. Formulating feed with a margin of safety increased formula cost by $3.40 per ton. Stochastic feed formulation increased formula cost to meet the specified CP level in feed at any probability of success, and formula cost was reduced substantially with the 2-bin method (up to $6.47 per ton). The magnitude of savings and reduced feed variability suggested that, regardless of the costs associated with building extra bins, the 2-bin method can be economically efficient in the long run. Therefore, it could be possible to split the batches of feed ingredients at a feed mill into above- or below-average bins before feed formulation to reduce CP variability and to maximize savings.     

On System Stability under Random Perturbations

In this paper we concider the problem of stability of stochastic evolution systemsin Hilbert space drived by a cylindrical Brownian mothin. We regard the stochestic evolutionequation dXt = AXtdt +G(Xt)dBt as a deterministic system of the form dXt=AXtdt under randomperturbation,and obtain stability of its solution. It is shown that under certain assumptions,itsevolution solution and L2-contimuous evulution solution are exponertially stable.     

灌区灌溉需水量的随机模拟

提出了一个含有趋势分量、季节分量、随机分量的时间序列模型，并用来模拟灌区灌溉需水量。分析发现灌溉需水量的序列无趋势，季节分量可用显著谐波数为1的Fourier级数描述，而随机分量则可用一阶自回归模型表示。对模型残差的独立性和正态性的检验证实了模型的适用性。实例计算表明该模型用于模拟霍泉灌区小麦的灌溉需水量序列精度可靠，合理可行。     

灌溉效益分摊系数的数理统计分析方法

传统的灌溉效益分摊系数的计算公式中没有考虑随机因素和交互效应的影响,针对这一问题提出了相应的数理统计分析方法,并利用一组历史数据,计算了某一地区的灌溉效益分摊系数。     

An Adjustable Nutrient Margin of Safety Comparison Using Linear and Stochastic Programming in an Excel Spreadsheet

A stochastic-linear program Excel workbook was developed that consisted of 2 worksheets illustrating linear and stochastic program approaches. Both approaches used the Excel Solver add-in. A published linear program problem served as an example for the ingredients, nutrients, and costs and as a benchmark in the development of the linear and stochastic programs. Standard deviations for ME and nutrients were taken or calculated from CV, and from a commercial publication of sources for amino acids. The Excel spreadsheet was set up so that the calculated margin of safety (MOS) value, according to the requested probability, was the same for both the linear and stochastic programs. As an example, the probability for meeting the nutrient value for protein was compared at 50% (MOS = 0) and 69% (MOS = 0.5) by using both linear and stochastic programming. Spreadsheet results illustrated the flexibility, accuracy, and precision of the stochastic program over the linear program in meeting the requested nutrient probability.     

用随机发育模型预测马尾松毛虫的发生期

用马尾松毛虫各龄虫口密度的定期调查资料和积温资料,拟合Logistic随机发育模型,结果表明,该模型能精确地描述马尾松毛虫第1代1～6龄幼虫的发育进程。对各龄虫口的时间分布,模型预测值和观察值的吻合程度达90%。对模型参数进行比较表明,除了温度(积温)以外,还有另外一些因素影响着马尾松毛虫的发育进程。     

结构可靠度的一种计算方法

提出一种推广一次二阶矩法的算法，解决了关于相关正态随机向量的非线性极限状态方程下结构可靠度计算问题，在理论上论证了方法的可行性，实例计算表明了方法的有效性。