中国上市公司多元化经营绩效的实证分析

通过随机抽样,计算我国57家上市公司1998年-2002年的平均盈利指标和风险指标,根据各公司多元化熵值的大小对样本总体进行分组,分析多元化程度对企业绩效的影响.研究发现1.多元化程度越高,公司的平均净资产收益率越高;2.多元化经营降低了公司收益率的波动水平;3.资产规模越小的公司越倾向于选择多元化经营.     

汽车运材费用的多因素分析

本文应用多元统计分析方法对汽车运材费用进行分析，影响运材费用的主要因素按其对单位成本影响的贡献大小排序，依次是单位养路费、单位燃润费、单位保修费和单位大修费．     

暴发高致病禽流感疫区鸟类禽流感的血清学调查

本研究应用血凝抑制试验(H I),2004年初H 5亚型禽流感在中国内地发生前后,于湖北、广西二疫区市县的生态系中,自健康的鹰、鸽子、野鸭和鹌鹑中采集了54份血清,对其进行了血清学检测,并将获得的血清学检测数据进行了统计学分析。分析结果显示,在总共采集的54份血清样品中,抗H 6亚型禽流感病毒(H 6)抗体、抗H 9亚型禽流感病毒(H 9)抗体、抗H 5亚型禽流感病毒(H 5)抗体阳性率分别为64.8%、75.9%、29.6%。推断,这一时期,H 6亚型禽流感病毒(H 6)、H 9亚型禽流感病毒(H 9)和H 5亚型禽流感病毒(H 5)共循环于该生态系中,其中H 9、H 6亚型禽流感病毒长期、稳定循环于该生态系中,为该生态系禽流感主要流行血清型。血凝抑制试验检测结果发现,H 5亚型禽流感病毒抗体滴度较低,最高仅为640×,其阳性率为29.6%,推断其可能为新近传入的病毒或新近重组变异出现的新病毒,可能为与该次禽流感暴发相关的新病毒,这一推断还有待于通过对病毒基因序列的分析而做进一步验证。     

Serum 5'nucleotidase activity in rats: a method for automated analysis and criteria for interpretation

A manual kit for determining serum 5'nucleotidase (5'NT, EC 3.1.3.5) activity was adapted for use with rat samples on a large discrete clinical chemistry analyzer. The precision of the method was good (within-run C.V. = 2.14%; between-run C.V. = 5.5%). A comparison of the new automated method with a manual and semi-automated method gave regression statistics of y = 1.18X -3.66 (Sy. x = 4.54), and y = 0.733X + 1.97 (Sy. x = 1.69), respectively. Temperature conversion factors provided by the kit manufacturer for human samples were determined to be inaccurate for converting results from rat samples. Analysis of components contributing to normal variation in rat serum 5'NT activity showed age and sex to be major factors. Increased serum 5'NT activity was observed in female rats when compared to male rats beginning at about 5 to 6 weeks of age. An analysis of variance of serum 5'NT, alkaline phosphatase, and GGT activities observed over a 9-week period in normal rats suggests several advantages for 5'NT as a predictor of biliary lesions in rats.     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示

为充分利用油气管道历史失效数据,减少失效概率评估过程中的主观性,提出油气管道基本失效概率的概念及评估方法。对美国管道及危险物品安全管理局数据库的油气管道里程数据、事故数据及失效因素数据进行全面分析,采用基于事故统计的方法评估油气管道基本失效概率。结果表明:美国危险液体管道、输气集气管道、配气管道发生一般事故的基本失效概率分别为1.29次/(10^3 km·a)、2.17次/(10^4 km·a)及4.08次/(10^5 km·a),发生较大事故的基本失效概率分别为4.58次/(10^4 km·a)、1.41次/(10^4 km·a)及2.38次/(10^5 km·a),发生重大事故的基本失效概率分别为9.09次/(10^6 km·a)、9.79次/(10^6 km·a)及1.11次/(10^5 km·a)。美国基本失效概率可作为油气管道失效概率评估的基准线,也可作为风险可接受标准的依据,但不能直接应用于中国管道风险评价,需对其进行修正,建立适用于中国管道的失效数据库。     

The nearest-plant method is robust and powerful enough for different survey teams to monitor change in mesic grassland species composition

A long-term rangeland monitoring programme needs to employ a field survey technique that is practicable, precise, powerful enough to distinguish change, not prone to worker bias, and able to distinguish real change from operator error arising from staff turnover. These criteria were used to evaluate a widely used grassland sampling technique in South Africa – the nearest-plant (with 200 points) method (NP) – against common alternatives, namely NP excluding forbs (NP-nf), the plant number scale (PNS; a cover-abundance method) and quadrat frequency (QF), using multivariate ordination and permutation tests. Four trained teams surveyed four grasslands using each method. PNS took more than twice as long as the other techniques, which were similarly rapid. Estimates of composition using NP methods were the most precise and PNS was least repeatable, with QF intermediate. Compositional differences between sites were most finely distinguished using NP-nf, followed by NP and QF. PNS was able to detect only marked differences and had the greatest potential for surveyor bias. The NP method, with or without including forbs, is therefore recommended for monitoring the species composition of mesic, dense grassland. Some suggestions for monitoring agencies on how best to use multivariate methods are presented.     

An Expert Knowledge-acquisition Method on Line of Automatic Excluding Errors

Aimed at soving the problem existing in the knowledge-acquisition directing-operation expert systems, a new method is proposed to acquire knowledge of expert-operation, excluding errors existed in examples and reinforce the accuracy of examples,the goal of knowledge acquisition can be achieved, the method presented in this paper solves the problem of self-enhancement of expert knowledge on line efficiently.     

Application of Multivariate Statistics in Early-warning of Corporation Financial Crisis

This paper is focused on early warning of corporation financial crisis for the China's household electric appliance manufacturers in stock market. Firstly, using company's open-disclosed annual statements as data resource, the financial indexes system is constructed. Secondary, adopting the multivariable statistical analysis method, such as cluster, discriminate and principle component analysis, the multivariate models for the empirical study on early warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software are set up. The corporation might discover the financial affairs crisis that shall probably arise beforehand by using the financial affairs crisis early warning system. This study and analysis may serve as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.