Vulnerability of aquaculture‐related livelihoods to changing climate at the global scale

There is now a strong consensus that during the 20th century, and especially during recent decades, the earth has experienced a significant warming trend with projections suggesting additional further warming during the 21st century. Associated with this warming trend are changes in climate that are expected to show substantial spatial variability across the earth's surface. Globally, fish production has continued to increase during recent years at a rate exceeding that of human population growth. However, the contribution from capture fisheries has remained largely static since the late 1980s with the increase in production being accounted for by dramatic growth in the aquaculture sector. In this study, the distribution of vulnerability of aquaculture‐related livelihoods to climate change was assessed at the global scale based on the concept of vulnerability as a function of sensitivity to climate change, exposure to climate change and adaptive capacity. Use was made of national‐level statistics along with gridded climate and population data. Climate change scenarios were supplied using the MAGICC/SCENGEN climate modelling tools. Analysis was conducted for aquaculture in freshwater, brackish and marine environments with outputs represented as a series of raster images. A number of Asian countries (Vietnam, Bangladesh, Laos and China) were indicated as most vulnerable to impacts on freshwater production. Vietnam, Thailand, Egypt and Ecuador stood out in terms of brackish water production. Norway and Chile were considered most vulnerable to impacts on marine production while a number of Asian countries (China, Vietnam and the Philippines) also ranked highly.     

The impact of methodological choices on the outcome of national‐level climate change vulnerability assessments: An example from the global fisheries sector

Climate change vulnerability assessments have been receiving increasing attention from policymakers and academics. Given scarce funds for adaptation, the UNFCCC Secretariat has suggested that eligible countries be prioritized for support based on their vulnerability to climate change. National‐level fisheries sector climate change vulnerability assessments as well as other overall vulnerability assessments to date have lent support to the idea that least developed countries (LDCs) are more vulnerable to climate change than small island developing states (SIDS) and other coastal countries. We demonstrate that these perceived differences in vulnerability among country groups are partly due to methodological choices made during these assessments. We argue that national‐level vulnerability assessments, and particularly those dealing with the fisheries sector, often suffer from four main methodological shortcomings: (i) an inconsistent representation of countries belonging to each group, (ii) use of socioeconomic indicators that are not scaled to population size, (iii) use of a small number of indicators and (iv) lack of accounting for potential redundancy among indicators. Building on a previous framework, we show that by addressing the four aforementioned methodological shortcomings, the ranking in fisheries sector vulnerability among SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries is altered significantly. Our results underscore that the vulnerability of SIDS was partially concealed in previous assessments and suggest that SIDS are in fact the most vulnerable group. Although this study focuses on assessing the vulnerability of the fisheries sector to climate change in SIDS, LDCs and other coastal countries, the implications also apply to other sectors and country groupings.     

Transform high seas management to build climate resilience in marine seafood supply

Climate change is projected to redistribute fisheries resources, resulting in tropical regions suffering decreases in seafood production. While sustainably managing marine ecosystems contributes to building climate resilience, these solutions require transformation of ocean governance. Recent studies and international initiatives suggest that conserving high seas biodiversity and fish stocks will have ecological and economic benefits; however, implications for seafood security under climate change have not been examined. Here, we apply global‐scale mechanistic species distribution models to 30 major straddling fish stocks to show that transforming high seas fisheries governance could increase resilience to climate change impacts. By closing the high seas to fishing or cooperatively managing its fisheries, we project that catches in exclusive economic zones (EEZs) would likely increase by around 10% by 2050 relative to 2000 under climate change (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), compensating for the expected losses (around ?6%) from ‘business‐as‐usual’. Specifically, high seas closure increases the resilience of fish stocks, as indicated by a mean species abundance index, by 30% in EEZs. We suggest that improving high seas fisheries governance would increase the resilience of coastal countries to climate change.     

Climate change adaptation in fisheries

We conducted a global systematic literature review of climate change adaptation in fisheries. We addressed three specific questions: (i) What are fisheries adapting to? (ii) How are fisheries adapting? and (iii) What research gaps need to be addressed? We identified, characterized and examined case studies published between 1990 and 2019 that lie at the intersection of the domains of climate change, adaptation and fisheries. We characterized the documented climate change effects in fisheries that are being adapted to multiple stressors, general climate impacts, extreme events, ocean conditions, marine system shifts, climate variability, fishery dynamics, species distribution and atmospheric warming. Three categories of adaptive responses came to light: coping mechanisms (e.g. changing fishing location, use of traditional knowledge); adaptive strategies (e.g. livelihood diversification, incorporation of technology); and management responses (e.g. adaptive management, adaptation planning). We identified key potential areas for future research, including studies on the limits and barriers for adaptation, studies using specific conceptual and methodological approaches, and studies focussing on the top-producing countries such as China, Indonesia, Peru and Russia. This analysis gives broader insights to the fisheries industry and to climate change adaptation research to proceed in the face of new global challenges.     

Impacts of climate change on snakehead fish value chains in the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam

ABSTRACT

The productive fisheries of the Lower Mekong Basin of Cambodia and Vietnam are essential to the food security and nutrition of 60 million people. Yet these fisheries, both culture and capture, are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. This article reports on a study undertaken to examine the vulnerability, as perceived by snakehead (Channa striata) fish farmers in Vietnam and fishers in Cambodia, to the impacts from climate change. Perceived impacts on various actors in the value chain are identified, as well as adaptation strategies currently being utilized and planned for the future. Recommendations are suggested to contribute to assisting snakehead farmers and fishers in adapting and preparing for the impacts of climate change.     

A fresh look at inland fisheries and their role in food security and livelihoods

The role of inland fisheries in livelihoods, food security and sustainable development is often overshadowed by the higher profile interest in ocean issues. Whilst inland fisheries' catch and contribution to global nutrition, food security and the economy, are less than that of marine fisheries, global‐level comparisons of fish production obscure considerable livelihood impacts in certain countries and sub‐national areas. To highlight these contributions, this paper synthesizes recent data and innovative approaches for assessing such livelihood contributions and their importance in countries with limited access to ocean resources and aquaculture. Inland fisheries are crucial for many socially, economically and nutritionally vulnerable groups of people around the world, but the challenges in monitoring inland fisheries preclude a complete understanding of the magnitude of their contributions. This situation is rapidly improving with increasing recognition of inland fisheries in development discourses, which has also encouraged research to enhance knowledge on the importance of inland fisheries. We review this work, including collated information published in a recent Food and Agriculture Organization report, to provide an up to date characterization of the state of knowledge on the role of inland fisheries.     

Evaluating the effects of climate change in the southern Benguela upwelling system using the Atlantis modelling framework

The ocean is affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors including climate change, the effects of which are already evident in many ocean ecosystems. The ABACuS v2 end‐to‐end model together with climate projections from the NEMO‐MEDUSA 2.0 model were used to evaluate the effects of fishing, warming and horizontal and vertical mixing on the southern Benguela upwelling system. Of the drivers examined in this study, warming had the greatest effect on species biomass, with mainly negative effects. The magnitude of the impacts of warming intensified from the RCP 2.6 to the 8.5 emission scenario. Fishing negatively affected demersal and large pelagic fish, which in turn resulted in a biomass increase of forage fish due to a decrease in predation pressure. Water mixing was found to have minor indirect effects on zooplankton biomass and fish. The responses of species and species groups to the combined effects of fishing and warming were approximately equally divided between additive, synergistic and antagonistic. Interpretation of our model results suggests that the southern Benguela system is likely to be affected by climate change, including substantial changes in the abundance of some species important to the region's fisheries. Future planning for fisheries needs to take this into account, including through management that strives to maintain the resilience of key species and the system as a whole. In line with previous studies on the southern Benguela, the results reinforce the importance of including consideration of the indirect and combined impacts of climate change and fishing in management and planning.     

Review of climate change impacts on marine fisheries in the UK and Ireland

相似文献   

Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies

Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social-ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future. We set the stage with a brief review of the impacts of the heatwave on marine ecosystems and the first systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these changes on commercial and recreational fisheries. We then examine ten key case studies that provide instructive examples of the complex and surprising challenges that heatwaves pose to fisheries social-ecological systems. These reveal important insights into improving the resilience of monitoring and management and increasing adaptive capacity to future stressors. Key recommendations include: (1) expanding monitoring to enhance mechanistic understanding, provide early warning signals, and improve predictions of impacts; (2) increasing the flexibility, adaptiveness, and inclusiveness of management where possible; (3) using simulation testing to help guide management decisions; and (4) enhancing the adaptive capacity of fishing communities by promoting engagement, flexibility, experimentation, and failsafes. These advancements are important as global fisheries prepare for a changing ocean.     

Biogeographic freshwater fish pattern legacy revealed despite rapid socio‐economic changes in China

Understanding drivers of freshwater fish assemblages is critically important for biodiversity conservation strategies, especially in rapidly developing countries, which often have environmental protections lagging behind economic development. The influences of natural and human factors in structuring fish assemblages and their relative contributions are likely to change given the increasing magnitude of human activities. To discriminate natural and human drivers of fish diversity and assemblage patterns in developing countries with rapid socio‐economic development, a dataset of 908 freshwater fish species and 13 metrics including three categories of both natural (i.e., biogeographic) and human drivers (i.e., economic growth, inland fisheries) in China were analysed with machine learning algorithms (i.e., self‐organizing map, random forest). Here, we found that biogeographic drivers explained 21.8% of the observed fish assemblage patterns in China and remained stronger predictors when compared to human drivers (i.e., 15.6%, respectively). Freshwater fish species richness was positively correlated to rainfall, air temperature, surface water area and inland fisheries production but negatively correlated with urbanization. In addition, the strong structuring effects of climatic variables on Chinese fish richness patterns suggested that the fish assemblages could be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Our results showed that natural biogeographic factors still dominate in driving freshwater fish assemblage patterns despite increased human disturbances on aquatic ecosystems in a rapidly developing country. These findings consequently suggested that we should consider both natural (e.g., climate) and human (e.g., urbanization, inland fisheries) factors when establishing aquatic conservation strategies and priorities for developing countries that are experiencing rapid socio‐economic changes.     

European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios

The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate‐induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate‐related local extinctions were expected in the south‐eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi‐SDM, multi‐GCM, multi‐RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.     

Southward re‐distribution of tropical tuna fisheries activity can be explained by technological and management change

There is broad evidence of climate change causing shifts in fish distribution worldwide, but less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. Responses to climate‐driven shifts in a fishery may be constrained by existing management or institutional arrangements and technological settings. In order to understand how fisheries are responding to ocean warming, we investigate purse seine fleets targeting tropical tunas in the east Atlantic Ocean using effort and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data from 1991 to 2017. An analysis of the spatial change in effort using a centre of gravity approach and empirical orthogonal functions is used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in effort anomalies and investigate links to SSTA. Both analyses indicate that effort shifts southward from the equator, while no clear pattern is seen northward from the equator. Random forest models show that while technology and institutional settings better explain total effort, SSTA is playing a role when explaining the spatiotemporal changes of effort, together with management and international agreements. These results show the potential of management to minimize the impacts of climate change on fisheries activity. Our results provide guidance for improved understanding about how climate, management and governance interact in tropical tuna fisheries, with methods that are replicable and transferable. Future actions should take into account all these elements in order to plan successful adaptation.     

Contrasting climate velocity impacts in warm and cool locations show that effects of marine warming are worse in already warmer temperate waters

Species responses to climate change are often measured at broad spatiotemporal scales, which can miss the fine-scale changes that are most relevant to conservation and fisheries management. We develop a scaleable geostatistical approach to assess how juvenile and adult fish distributions have been shaped by changes in bottom temperature and dissolved oxygen over a recent decade of warming in the northeast Pacific. Across 38 demersal fishes, biomass trends were associated negatively with warming and positively with dissolved oxygen, but when trends in both biomass and climate were converted to velocities—the speed and direction a population would have to move to maintain consistent conditions—the effect of temperature change differed depending on local conditions. In the warmest locations, warming velocities were associated with negative biotic velocities for 19 of 69 species-maturity combinations, and yet were almost always associated with stable or positive biotic velocities in the coolest locations (64 of 69). These spatially consistent biomass declines (negative biotic velocities) in the warmest locations and increases in cooler locations suggest a redistribution of species with the potential for new ecological and fisheries interactions. After controlling for temperature, the more spatially consistent effects of dissolved oxygen were often negative, suggesting a mechanism other than hypoxia avoidance—potentially changes in primary production. Our approach identifies the species and locations that are most sensitive to observed changes in the environment at any scale, thus facilitating future vulnerability assessments.     

Vulnerability of Cape Fold Ecoregion freshwater fishes to climate change and other human impacts

相似文献   

Extinction vulnerability in marine populations

Human impacts on the world's oceans have been substantial, leading to concerns about the extinction of marine taxa. We have compiled 133 local, regional and global extinctions of marine populations. There is typically a 53‐year lag between the last sighting of an organism and the reported date of the extinction at whatever scale this has occurred. Most disappearances (80%) were detected using indirect historical comparative methods, which suggests that marine extinctions may have been underestimated because of low‐detection power. Exploitation caused most marine losses at various scales (55%), followed closely by habitat loss (37%), while the remainder were linked to invasive species, climate change, pollution and disease. Several perceptions concerning the vulnerability of marine organisms appear to be too general and insufficiently conservative. Marine species cannot be considered less vulnerable on the basis of biological attributes such as high fecundity or large‐scale dispersal characteristics. For commercially exploited species, it is often argued that economic extinction of exploited populations will occur before biological extinction, but this is not the case for non‐target species caught in multispecies fisheries or species with high commercial value, especially if this value increases as species become rare. The perceived high potential for recovery, high variability and low extinction vulnerability of fish populations have been invoked to avoid listing commercial species of fishes under international threat criteria. However, we need to learn more about recovery, which may be hampered by negative population growth at small population sizes (Allee effect or depensation) or ecosystem shifts, as well as about spatial dynamics and connectivity of subpopulations before we can truly understand the nature of responses to severe depletions. The evidence suggests that fish populations do not fluctuate more than those of mammals, birds and butterflies, and that fishes may exhibit vulnerability similar to mammals, birds and butterflies. There is an urgent need for improved methods of detecting marine extinctions at various spatial scales, and for predicting the vulnerability of species.     

Critically examining the knowledge base required to mechanistically project climate impacts: A case study of Europe's fish and shellfish

An amalgam of empirical data from laboratory and field studies is needed to build robust, theoretical models of climate impacts that can provide science‐based advice for sustainable management of fish and shellfish resources. Using a semi‐systematic literature review, Gap Analysis and multilevel meta‐analysis, we assessed the status of empirical knowledge on the direct effects of climate change on 37 high‐value species targeted by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors operating in marine and freshwater regions. Knowledge on potential climate change‐related drivers (single or combined) on several responses (vital rates) across four categories (exploitation sector, region, life stage, species), was considerably unbalanced as well as biased, including a low number of studies (a) examining the interaction of abiotic factors, (b) offering opportunities to assess local adaptation, (c) targeting lower‐value species. The meta‐analysis revealed that projected warming would increase mean growth rates in fish and mollusks and significantly elevate metabolic rates in fish. Decreased levels of dissolved oxygen depressed rates of growth and metabolism across coherent species groups (e.g., small pelagics, etc.) while expected declines in pH reduced growth in most species groups and increased mortality in bivalves. The meta‐analytical results were influenced by the study design and moderators (e.g., life stage, season). Although meta‐analytic tools have become increasingly popular, when performed on the limited available data, these analyses cannot grasp relevant population effects, even in species with a long history of study. We recommend actions to overcome these shortcomings and improve mechanistic (cause‐and‐effect) projections of climate impacts on fish and shellfish.     

滤食性鱼类在淡水渔业中的碳汇作用初探

气候变暖威胁人类的生存与发展,减少CO2等温室气体的排放,发展低碳经济,缓解全球气候变暖的低碳经济是人类的共识。滤食性鱼类通过滤食浮游生物,间接降低大气中的CO2浓度而发挥碳汇作用。本文描述了一个不投饵的淡水生态系统的碳循环,探讨了滤食性鱼类在淡水生态系统中的碳汇作用,依据2009年全国水产养殖相关统计数据,估算了全国滤食性鱼类养殖的年碳汇量,为淡水渔业的低碳发展提供新思路,以推进现代化渔业的科学健康发展。     

Potential impacts of climate change on growth and prey consumption of stream‐dwelling smallmouth bass in the central United States

Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu, SMB) is a broadly distributed, economically important species in the USA and Canada. Although previous research has suggested that projected climate warming may allow SMB to thrive beyond their current northern distribution, little research has been devoted to the population‐level effects of climate change on warm‐water fishes, including SMB. We modelled the impacts of projected climate change on growth of stream‐dwelling SMB along a north–south gradient in the central USA. Using downscaled regional projections from three global climate models, we generated scenarios for thermal habitat change for four populations (in Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota) and used bioenergetics simulations to estimate prey consumption and growth under future projections. Bioenergetics simulations showed that prey consumption is expected to increase in all populations with moderate stream warming (2–3 °C). Growth potential is predicted to increase by 3–17% if not limited by food availability with stream warming by 2060 and was most pronounced for southern populations. For each 1 °C increase in stream temperature, SMB consumption would be expected to increase by about 27% and growth would increase by about 6%. Due to implications for species interactions, population performance and regulation of local fisheries, a better understanding of how SMB populations will respond to climate change is recommended for effective management and conservation.     

滤食性鱼类在淡水渔业中的碳汇作用初探

气候变暖威胁人类的生存与发展,减少CO2等温室气体的排放,发展低碳经济,缓解全球气候变暖的低碳经济是人类的共识。滤食性鱼类通过滤食浮游生物,间接降低大气中的CO2浓度而发挥碳汇作用。本文描述了一个不投饵的淡水生态系统的碳循环,探讨了滤食性鱼类在淡水生态系统中的碳汇作用,依据2009年全国水产养殖相关统计数据,估算了全国滤食性鱼类养殖的年碳汇量,为淡水渔业的低碳发展提供新思路,以推进现代化渔业的科学健康发展。     

公海深海底层渔业国际管理进展

以底拖网为代表的深海底层渔业对深海脆弱海洋生态系统的危害受到国际社会的热切关注。2003年以来联合国大会多次通过决议,呼吁各国各自并通过RFMO/As采取行动,根据预防性原则,采用基于生态系统的管理方法,评估深海底层渔业对脆弱海洋生态系统的影响,若评估表明确有重大不利影响,则应采取有效措施限制深海底层渔业以降低这种影响;FAO主要从技术角度制定了《公海深海渔业管理国际指南》,为管理公海深海渔业和保护脆弱海洋生态系统提出了技术标准和管理框架;RFMO承担着具体执行深海底层渔业管理措施和监督管理的责任,在北大西洋、地中海、南太平洋的公海和南极水域,相关RFMO已采取了暂停部分区域底拖网渔业活动、收集数据、评估底拖网对脆弱海洋生态系统的影响等措施,在北太平洋,新成立的北太平洋渔业管理委员会将公海底层渔业管理作为首要目标。环保非政府组织和部分科学家呼吁禁止公海深海底层渔业,但各国对此的立场尚不一致,产业界大多持反对立场。近期来看,尚难以全面禁止公海的深海底层渔业。中国正在发展公海大洋渔业,需对此密切关注,加强跟踪研究以支撑决策,并应发展和使用选择性渔具和对生态环境无害的作业方式,防止对脆弱海洋生态系统产生损害性影响。