西北太平洋秋刀鱼CPUE标准化研究

秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)是西北太平洋海域重要的渔业种类之一,其资源评估工作已成为热点问题,单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)标准化可以为开展有效的资源评估研究提供科学依据。为此,本研究利用2003~2017年中国大陆西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔业生产统计资料,结合卫星遥感获得的海洋环境数据,如海表面温度、海表温度梯度、海表面高度等,基于广义线性模型(General linear model, GLM)和广义可加模型(Generalized additive model, GAM)对中国大陆西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔业进行CPUE标准化。结果显示,根据BIC准则,在GLM模型结果中,年份、月份、经度、纬度、海表面温度、海表面高度、海表温度梯度及年份与月份对CPUE具有显著影响,并组成了GLM模型的最佳模型,对CPUE偏差的解释率为52.47%;在GAM模型结果中,除上述8个影响变量外,交互项月份与经度和月份与纬度也对CPUE影响较大,GAM的最佳模型对CPUE偏差的解释率为61.9%。通过5-fold交叉验证分析发现,GAM模型标准化结果较优于GLM模型,更适合于西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔业CPUE标准化。     

Comparison of biomass estimates from multiple stratification approaches in a swept area method for Pacific saury Cololabis saira in the western North Pacific

Fishery-independent surveys using sea surface trawl nets for Pacific saury Cololabis saira in the western North Pacific since 2003 have enabled the investigation of their annual distribution patterns and total biomass during June and July, prior to the main fishing season in Japan. We compared biomass estimates and their associated variances derived based on five different post-stratification approaches in a swept area method, and then observed that these approaches have little effect on biomass estimates and their precision, owing to well-organized survey designs and homogeneously allocated sampling stations. We were able to utilize decreasing biomass estimates for 15 years as an essential abundance index in the ongoing stock assessment. Notably, examination based on stratification along with longitudinal survey lines indicated that the estimated biomass had decreased in the western survey area, resulting in an eastward shift in the gravity center of Pacific saury distribution after 2010. We recommend biomass estimation in an east–west direction based on longitudinal stratification as an effective measure to develop population dynamics models which reflect westward migration into the fishing grounds around Japanese coastal waters, and to forecast the expected catch during the subsequent fishing period.

     

基于GAM和权重分析的西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔情预报研究

为了提高秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)渔情预报模型的时空分辨率, 提升生产经济效益, 本研究基于 2013─2016 年 7—11 月中国在西北太平洋公海的秋刀鱼生产数据及海洋环境数据, 利用广义可加模型(generalized additive models, GAM)分别拟合单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort, CPUE)的适宜性指数(suitability index, SI)与各海洋环境变量之间的 SI 模型, 结合提升回归树模型(boosting regression tree, BRT)进行权重分析, 建立以月份为周期的秋刀鱼栖息地适宜性指数(habitat suitability index, HSI)模型。结果表明, (1) GAM 能较好地拟合适宜性指数与环境变量的关系, 获得最优环境变量参数值;(2) 环境变量对 CPUE 影响权重的前 3 位分别为海表温度梯度、海表温度和混合层深度, 其中, 在秋季 9—11 月海表温度梯度的权重值均为最高;(3) HSI 模型的检验和评价总体准确率分别为 82.0%和 73.2%, 秋季可达 87.7%和 77.9%, 在盛渔期 10 月, 预测准确率达 89.4%;(4) HSI 高值区与秋刀鱼实际渔场在空间分布基本一致。研究表明该模型适用于秋刀鱼的渔情预报, 并在每天的速报中具有明显优势。     

Recruitment abundance index of Pacific bluefin tuna using fisheries data on juveniles

ABSTRACT:   The recruitment abundance index of Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis was estimated from 1980 to 2003 fishing year by using the troll fishery data in Nagasaki Prefecture, western Japan. It has been shown that the troll fishery in Nagasaki Prefecture operates with good time–area coverage of the species habitat, and that the fishing power slightly changed during the period analyzed, based on fisheries statistics, published information, and interviews with the fishers. Average catch per unit effort (CPUEs) were standardized by a generalized linear model (GLM) considering the effects of fishing year, season and landing area. Standardized CPUE of age-0 bluefin tuna showed larger fluctuations year by year than the nominal CPUE combined for all ages. High CPUEs in fishing years of 1981, 1994, 1996 and 1999 were observed. Data from these years agreed with the higher recruitments estimated by virtual population analysis (VPA) or higher catch of age-0 fish reported for the Pacific side. The age-specific standardized CPUE of age-0 bluefin tuna in this study was judged to be a useful indicator of recruitment.     

北太平洋秋刀鱼生活史和资源渔场研究进展

北太平洋秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)是中国重要的远洋渔业鱼种,被北太平洋渔业委员会列为优先管理的种类之一。本文回顾和概述了秋刀鱼生活史、种群动力、资源渔场和栖息地适宜性等方面的研究进展,分析和展望了秋刀鱼生长生物学、繁殖生物学、洄游、资源波动和栖息地适宜性等研究现状和未来的发展趋势。主要建议包括:基于耳石微化学信息和最适环境参数的时空分布变动,探索秋刀鱼潜在的洄游路径和模式;建立繁殖栖息地适应性指数模型,分析海洋气候对秋刀鱼补充群体潜在栖息地的影响;建立秋刀鱼集群栖息地适宜性指数模型,开发秋刀鱼渔场渔情速报系统。本文的概述和分析旨在为秋刀鱼渔业资源等相关研究提供参考。     

On the relationship between the Oyashio front and saury fishing grounds in the north-western Pacific: a forecasting method for fishing ground locations

The relationships between fishing ground locations of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) and the two Oyashio fronts, the offshore front between 146^oE and 155^oE and the coastal Oyashio intrusion, before the saury fishing season, were examined using data from 1971 to 1991. Interannual geographical shifts of both the offshore Oyashio front and saury fishing grounds had a dominant interdecadal fluctuation. In years when the offshore front shifted north (south), the fishing grounds were formed relatively nearshore (offshore). When the offshore front shifted north, the fishing grounds were formed further nearshore in years the coastal Oyashio intrusion extended south. When the offshore front shifted south, on the other hand, the southward extension of the coastal intrusion did not necessarily cause formation of coastal fishing grounds. These results showed that locations of the fishing grounds depend not only on local and instantaneous oceanographic environments around the fishing grounds, but also on oceanographic conditions over an extensive range of the Oyashio area. This might indicate that the ecology of the saury's northward migration, through mixed water regions between the Kuroshio and Oyashio fronts in spring and summer, has a close relation to the shift of the offshore Oyashio front over a time range of months. A practical forecasting method for locations of saury fishing grounds is proposed based on the oceanography before the fishing season.     

Modelling the impacts of environmental variation on habitat suitability for Pacific saury in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

We developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models for two size classes of Pacific saury Cololabis saira in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. Environmental data, including sea surface temperature, sea surface height, salinity, and net primary production, and catch and effort data from Taiwanese distant‐water stick‐held dip net fisheries during the main fishing season (August–October) during 2002–2015 were used. Habitat preferences and suitable habitat area differed between size classes. The suitable habitat was located between 40–47.5°N and 145–165°E for large‐sized Pacific saury but encompassed a greater area (35–47°N and 140–165°E) for medium‐sized Pacific saury. Both size classes were affected by substantial interannual variation in the environmental variables, which in turn can be important in determining the potential fishing grounds. We found a significant negative relationship between the suitable habitat area and the Niño3.4 indices with a time‐lag of 6 months for the large‐sized (r = ?0.68) and medium‐sized (r = ?0.42) Pacific saury, respectively, as well as the total landings of Pacific saury by all fishing fleets (r = ?0.46). As remotely‐sensed environmental data become increasingly available, HSI models may prove useful for evaluation of possible changes in habitat suitability resulting from climate change or other environmental phenomena and in formulating scientific advice for management.     

Locations of early fishing grounds of saury in the northwestern Pacific

In the north-western Pacific, we found that locations of early fishing grounds of Pacific saury, Cololabis saira, are affected by two factors, the size composition and the meridional shift of the offshore Oyashio Front (OOF). Early fishing grounds are formed nearshore from the central Kuril Islands to Hokkaido in northward OOF years. In southward OOF years, they are far from the coasts. There also exists a tendency that early fishing grounds are formed south-westward (north-eastward) in years when a large (medium or small) size class of saury is dominant and when the OOF shifts north (south). These results support the hypothesis that saury migration is considerably influenced by oceanographic conditions, and that a large size class of saury leads to migration that can reach the vicinity of Japan early in the fishing season.     

西北太平洋公海7~9月秋刀鱼渔场分布及其与水温的关系

根据2003~2005年7~9月西北太平洋公海秋刀鱼生产数据和水温遥感数据,对西北太平洋公海秋刀鱼作业渔场分布及其与表温和上层水温结构的关系进行了分析。结果认为,随着时间的推移,7~9月西北太平洋公海秋刀鱼渔场重心有从西南向东北变动的趋势;各月产量重心处水温结构有较大差异,9月混合层深度较7月和8月有所加深,渔场也较后者向北移动;各月高产渔区0~15m温度梯度都在0.25℃/m以下,0~40m温度梯度在0.1℃/m左右,40~60m温度梯度在0.25~0.42℃/m之间。灰色关联度分析表明,渔区月产量受到众多因素的影响,其中捕捞努力量、渔区平均日产量和表温是其主要影响因子,对渔区平均日产量影响较大的有表温、0~15m温度梯度、0~40m温度梯度和月份,其关联度都在0.80以上。     

北太平洋公海秋刀鱼渔场初步分析

根据2004年7~11月“中远渔1号”调查船北太平洋公海秋刀鱼渔场探捕调查的生产情况,对秋刀鱼渔场进行分析。结果发现:①秋刀鱼渔场可根据渔场位置分为北部渔场和南部渔场,北部渔场范围为44°~45°N、156°~158°E,南部渔场范围为41°~42°N、150°~151°E,南部渔场的分布范围小于北部渔场。②秋刀鱼的生产以11月份生产最好,平均日产量达22.7t,其中最高日产量为60.42t;8月份的秋刀鱼生产最差,平均日产量为2.95t,与2003年的12.05t反差较大,主要是由于受到渔场环境因子变化的影响,鱼发位置偏至俄罗斯专属经济区内的缘故。③秋刀鱼舷提网作业平均日放网次数达7.6次,最高1天放网次数达到16次,而最高网次产量为11.05t。④秋刀鱼渔获组成以中小型鱼为主,占80%以上,除7月份渔获中特大型秋刀鱼占有较大比例外,其余月份很少有特大级秋刀鱼。⑤在相近的渔场位置,秋刀鱼个体随着生产月份的推迟,鱼体呈变小的趋势。     

Albacore (Thunnus alalunga) fishing ground in relation to oceanographic conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean using remotely sensed satellite data

Satellite‐based oceanographic data of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface chlorophyll‐a concentration (SSC), and sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) together with catch data were used to investigate the relationship between albacore fishing ground and oceanographic conditions and also to predict potential habitats for albacore in the western North Pacific Ocean. Empirical cumulative distribution function and high catch data analyses were used to calculate preferred ranges of the three oceanographic conditions. Results indicate that highest catch per unit efforts (CPUEs) corresponded with areas of SST 18.5–21.5°C, SSC 0.2–0.4 mg m^?3, and SSHA ?5.0 to 32.2 cm during the winter in the period 1998–2000. We used these ranges to generate a simple prediction map for detecting potential fishing grounds. Statistically, to predict spatial patterns of potential albacore habitats, we applied a combined generalized additive model (GAM) / generalized linear model (GLM). To build our model, we first constructed a GAM as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE; we then made parameters out of these relationships using the GLM to generate a robust prediction tool. The areas of highest CPUEs predicted by the models were consistent with the potential habitats on the simple prediction map and observation data, suggesting that the dynamics of ocean eddies (November 1998 and 2000) and fronts (November 1999) may account for the spatial patterns of highest albacore catch rates predicted in the study area. The results also suggest that multispectrum satellite data can provide useful information to characterize and predict potential tuna habitats.     

Oceanographic factors affecting interannual recruitment variability of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) in the central and western North Pacific

Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) has a short life span of 2 years and tends to exhibit marked population fluctuations. To examine the importance of sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) as oceanographic factors for interannual variability of saury recruitment in early life history, we analyzed the relationship between abundance index (survey CPUE (catch per unit of effort)) of age‐1 fish and the oceanographic factors in the spawning and nursery grounds of the previous year when they were born, for the period of 1979–2006, in the central and western North Pacific. Applying the mixture of two linear regression models, the variability in the survey CPUE was positively correlated with previous year's winter SST in the Kuroshio Recirculation region (KR) throughout the survey period except 1994–2002. In contrast, the survey CPUE was positively correlated with the previous year's spring MLD (a proxy of spring chlorophyll a (Chl‐a) concentration) in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Transition and Kuroshio Extension (TKE) during 1994–2002. This period is characterized by unusually deep spring MLD during 1994–1997 and anomalous climate conditions during 1998–2002. We suggest that saury recruitment variability was generally driven by the winter SST in the KR (winter spawning/nursery ground), or by the spring Chl‐a concentration (a proxy of prey for saury larvae) in the TKE (spring spawning/nursery ground). These oceanographic factors could be potentially useful to predict abundance trends of age‐1 saury in the future if the conditions leading to the switch between SST and MLD as the key input variable are elucidated further.     

西北太平洋灯光围网主要渔获物组成及渔场变动研究

西北太平洋公海灯光围网渔业是中国近年新兴的一种远洋渔业,具有一定开发潜力,掌握灯光围网的渔获物组成及渔场变动情况对于西北太平洋的渔业管理和开发具有一定意义.文章根据2014—2019年西北太平洋公海灯光围网渔业统计资料,对渔获量、单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)以及主要的渔获物组成进行统计分析,同时采用渔获量重心法和聚...     

Migration route of Pacific saury Cololabis saira inferred from the otolith hyaline zone

In order to establish the migration route of Pacific saury Cololabis saira, we measured the radius of otolith annual rings (ROA) in fish collected from areas off the Japanese coast up to 165°W in June and July (pre-fishing season) and from fishing grounds in August?CNovember (fishing season). The average ROA for six sea areas that each spanned 10° of longitude sampled during the pre-fishing season were compared with data obtained during each month of the fishing season. The average ROA decreased from west to east and also decreased monthly from August to November. The average ROA of fish caught after October at the peak of the fishing season was equivalent to that of the fish caught in the areas east of 160°E or 170°E. We conclude that Pacific saury caught by Japanese fishing vessels during the peak of the fishing season migrate from an area east of 160°E.     

Direct estimation of stock abundance of Pacific saury <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cololabis saira</Emphasis> in the northwestern Pacific Ocean using a mid-water trawl

Drifting gill-nets were for a long time the main research gear for investigating the distribution of Pacific saury Cololabis saira. However, it has proven to be difficult to estimate the absolute abundance of saury using drifting gill-nets due to a lack of knowledge on the survey areas swept by these gill-nets. A mid-water trawl stock abundance estimation has the advantage of being able to estimate the absolute stock abundance before the commercial fishing season begins, whereas the conventional stock abundance estimation based on catch per unit efforts of commercial fisheries must be done after the commercial fishing season has ended. To confirm the practicality of a mid-water trawl to estimate the stock abundance of saury, we conducted a comparative survey in the northwestern Pacific Ocean using both a mid-water trawl and drifting gill-nets. We found that the geographic distribution pattern of catch per unit effort for both the mid-water trawl and driftnets was similar. Using the area-swept method and data on the fishing efficiency of the mid-water trawl obtained in a previous study, we were able to estimate the stock abundance plus confidence limits within the research areas. Our results suggest that the size composition of saury sampled by the mid-water trawl can be considered to approximate the actual size composition of saury.     

南海及临近海域黄鳍金枪鱼渔场时空分布与海表温度的关系

为得到南海及临近海域黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacores)渔场最适宜栖息海表温度(SST)范围,基于美国国家海洋大气局(NOAA)气候预测中心月平均海表温度(SST)资料,结合中西太平洋渔业委员会(WCPFC)发布的南海及临近海域金枪鱼延绳钓渔业数据,绘制了月平均SST和月平均单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)的空间叠加图,用于分析南海及临近海域黄鳍金枪鱼渔场CPUE时空分布和SST的关系。结果表明,南海及临近海域黄鳍金枪鱼CPUE在16℃~31℃均有分布。在春季和夏季(3~8月),位于10°~20°N的大部分渔区CPUE较高,其南北侧CPUE较低;而到了秋季和冬季(9月到次年2月),高产渔场区域会向南拓宽。CPUE在各SST区间的散点图呈现出明显的负偏态分布,高CPUE主要集中在26℃~30℃,最高值出现在29℃附近;在22℃~26℃范围内CPUE散点分布较为零散,但在这个范围也会出现相当数量的高CPUE;在22℃以下的CPUE几乎属于低CPUE和零CPUE;零CPUE的平均SST为26.7℃(±3.2℃),低CPUE的平均SST为27.8℃(±2.1℃),高CPUE的平均SST为28.4℃(±1.5℃),高CPUE在各SST区间的分布要比零CPUE和低CPUE更为集中。采用频次分析和经验累积分布函数计算其最适SST范围,得到南海及临近海域黄鳍金枪鱼最适SST为26.9℃~29.4℃。本研究初步得到南海及临近海域黄鳍金枪鱼中心渔场时空分布特征及SST适宜分布区间,可为开展南海及临近海域金枪鱼渔情预报工作提供理论依据和参考。     

中西太平洋鲣渔场时空分布研究

中西太平洋海域是全球鲣(Katsuwonus pelamis)作业的主要渔场,该海域鲣渔场的时空分布规律,尤其是高产海域,是渔情预报研究的基础和前提。根据太平洋共同体秘书处提供的1995-2014年中西太平洋鲣围网捕捞生产统计数据,对各年各月的鲣产量和捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)进行统计分析,通过产量重心分析和聚类分析,找出渔场重心变化规律,同时选取高产的22个渔区(分辨率5°×5°),研究时间和空间因素对CPUE的影响。研究结果表明,中西太平洋鲣历年产量逐步上升,CPUE波动较大,而各月产量和CPUE差异较大,高产月份主要集中在上半年;历年产量重心分布不均,经度方向上分布差异较大,聚类分析可分为4类;各月产量重心变化呈现顺时针变化规律,从南到北,自西向东,再从北向南移动,聚类分析可分为3类;渔获量主要分布于5°S～5°N、120°～175°E,因此对该海域CPUE进行统计,以年份、月份和渔区为影响因素,分析发现,极端气候年份与其它年份的CPUE有明显不同,月份间的变化与产量月间重心变化类似,上、下半年有着明显不同;不同空间下,经度间差异大于纬度间差异,135°～145°E为经度CPUE差异的分界线,而南北纬间的差异不明显。上述鲣的时空分布变化主要与ENSO现象引起的西太平洋暖池的变化有着密切关系,同时太平洋岛国的相关入渔政策也对其产生一定的影响。     

西北太平洋秋刀鱼舷提网捕捞技术

自2003年我国大陆成功开发了西北太平洋秋刀鱼渔场之后，秋刀鱼已逐步进入中国大陆市场。对于秋刀鱼捕捞技术，在历经刺网、围网等渔具后，现基本以舷提网捕捞作业为主。根据2004年6—10月大连“国际903”号生产调查船在西北太平洋海域进行探捕调查的生产情况，对秋刀鱼舷提网的捕捞技术，从渔捞设备至捕捞具体操作技术进行介绍。     

Spatial and temporal migration modeling for stock of Pacific saury Cololabis saira (Brevoort), incorporating effect of sea surface temperature

ABSTRACT:   A model is proposed that expresses the spatial and temporal migration pattern for stock of Pacific saury Cololabis saira (Brevoort), in order to investigate the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on migration rates. Two factors are considered: (i) Saury emigrate to waters of an optimal SST zone; and (ii) saury immigrate from water zone that is extremely cold for saury. Parameters of migration and initial levels of stock are estimated with a maximum likelihood method based on catch per unit effort (CPUE) data for 1995–2001. The best model was selected using Akaike's information criteria. The results suggested that the emigration rate to southern adjacent regions is dependent on the coverage proportion of their waters under some threshold temperatures; 20°C to Doutou and Sanriku, 23°C to Joban and Izu.     

A study on the variability of albacore (Thunnus alalunga) longline catch rates in the southwest Pacific Ocean

Relationships between albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) longline catch per unit effort (CPUE) and environmental variables from model outputs in New Caledonia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) were examined through generalized linear models at a 1° spatial resolution and 10‐day temporal resolution. At a regional (EEZ) scale, the study demonstrated that a large part of albacore CPUE variability can be explained by seasonal, interannual and spatial variation of the habitat. Results of the generalized linear models indicated that catch rates are higher than average in the northwestern part of the EEZ at the beginning of the year (January) and during the second half of the year (July–December). In the northwestern region of the EEZ, high CPUEs are associated with waters <20.5° in the intermediate layer and with moderate values of primary production. Longline CPUE also appeared to be dependent on prey densities, as predicted from a micronekton model. Albacore CPUE was highest at moderate densities of prey in the epipelagic layer during the night and for relatively low prey densities in the mesopelagic layer during the day. We also demonstrated that the highest CPUEs were recorded from 1986 to 1998, which corresponds to a period with frequent El Niño events.