Forest succession and climate variability interacted to control fire activity over the last four centuries in an Alaskan boreal landscape

Context

The boreal forest is globally important for its influence on Earth’s energy balance, and its sensitivity to climate change. Ecosystem functioning in boreal forests is shaped by fire activity, so anticipating the impacts of climate change requires understanding the precedence for, and consequences of, climatically induced changes in fire regimes. Long-term records of climate, fire, and vegetation are critical for gaining this understanding.

Objectives

We investigated the relative importance of climate and landscape flammability as drivers of fire activity in boreal forests by developing high-resolution records of fire history, and characterizing their centennial-scale relationships to temperature and vegetation dynamics.

Methods

We reconstructed the timing of fire activity in interior Alaska, USA, using seven lake-sediment charcoal records spanning CE 1550–2015. We developed individual and composite records of fire activity, and used correlations and qualitative comparisons to assess relationships with existing records of vegetation and climate.

Results

Our records document a dynamic relationship between climate and fire. Fire activity and temperature showed stronger coupling after ca. 1900 than in the preceding 350 yr. Biomass burning and temperatures increased concurrently during the second half of the twentieth century, to their highest point in the record. Fire activity followed pulses in black spruce establishment.

Conclusions

Fire activity was facilitated by warm temperatures and landscape-scale dominance of highly flammable mature black spruce, with a notable increase in temperature and fire activity during the twenty-first century. The results suggest that widespread burning at landscape scales is controlled by a combination of climate and vegetation dynamics that together drive flammability.

     

Changes in mixed deciduous forests of boreal Sweden 1866–1999 based on interpretation of historical records

Current knowledge of patterns and abundance of deciduous trees in thepre-industrial landscape of boreal Sweden is limited. This is due to a dramatictransformation of the forest landscape during the last 100 years and the lackofrepresentative forest reserves. We used historical records to study change infive mixed deciduous forests between 1866 and 1999. The results show that largechanges occurred due to complex interactions between fire disturbance, firesuppression, logging and silviculture. Before fire suppression, the presence ofdeciduous trees was mainly determined by earlier fire influence. Laterselectivelogging disturbed natural succession and favoured regeneration of deciduoustrees. During the 20^th century deciduous trees were removed bygirdling, thinning and herbicide spraying. Much of the mixed deciduous standschanged to coniferous stands between 1906–15 and 1969–70, and thendeciduous trees were totally removed from these stands between late 1960s and1999. Today mixed deciduous forest occurs mainly in young stands and on othersites than previously. Our results also show that large coniferous trees andmulti-aged forest occurred in all sites in the early 1900s. Most sites weredominated by coniferous species and forest dominated by deciduous treesoccurredonly in smaller areas. These results are not consistent with the current viewthat deciduous-dominated forest occupied substantial areas in boreal Swedenbefore fire suppression. Appropriate changes in forest management arediscussed,as is the value of historical data in interpreting changes in forestlandscapes.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Topographic variation in the climatic change response of a larch forest in Northeastern China

Context

Due to the spatial heterogeneity of the disturbance regimes and community assemblages along topoclimatic gradients, the response of forest ecosystem to climate change varies at the landscape scale.

Objectives

Our objective was to quantify the possible changes in forest ecosystems and the relative effects of climate warming and fire regime changes in different topographic positions.

Methods

We used a spatially explicit model (LANDIS PRO) combined with a gap model (LINKAGES) to predict the possible response of boreal larch forests to climate and fire regime changes, and examined how this response would vary in different topographic positions.

Results

The result showed that the proportion of landscape occupied by broadleaf species increased under warming climate and frequent fires scenarios. Shifts in species composition were strongly influenced by both climate warming and more frequent fires, while changes in age structure were mainly controlled by shifts in fire regime. These responses varied in the different topographic positions, with forests in valley bottoms being most resilient to climate-fire changes and forests in uplands being more likely to shift their composition from larch-dominant to mixed forests. Such variation in the topographic response may be induced by the heterogeneities of the environmental conditions and fire regime.

Conclusions

Fire disturbance could alter the equilibrium of ecosystems and accelerate the response of forests to climate warming. These effects are largely modulated by topographic variations. Our findings suggest that it is imperative to consider topographic complexities when developing appropriate fire management policies for mitigating the effects of climate change.

     

Forest fragmentation, climate change and understory fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu headwaters

Understory fire modeling is a key tool to investigate the cornerstone concept of landscape ecology, i.e. how ecological processes relate to landscape structure and dynamics. Within this context, we developed FISC??a model that simulates fire ignition and spread and its effects on the forest carbon balance. FISC is dynamically coupled to a land-use change model to simulate fire regimes on the Amazonian landscapes of the Xingu Headwaters under deforestation, climate change, and land-use management scenarios. FISC incorporates a stochastic cellular automata approach to simulate fire spread across agricultural and forested lands. CARLUC, nested in FISC, simulates fuel dynamics, forest regrowth, and carbon emissions. Simulations of fire regimes under modeled scenarios revealed that the major current and future driver of understory fires is forest fragmentation rather than climate change. Fire intensity proved closely related to the landscape structure of the remaining forest. While climate change may increase the percentage of forest burned outside protected areas by 30% over the next four decades, deforestation alone may double it. Nevertheless, a scenario of forest recovery and better land-use management would abate fire intensity by 18% even in the face of climate change. Over this time period, the total carbon balance of the Xingu??s forests varies from an average net sink of 1.6?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in the absence of climate change, fire and deforestation to a source of ?0.1?ton?ha^?1?year^?1 in a scenario that incorporates these three processes.     

Spatial attributes of fire regime in eastern Canada: influences of regional landscape physiography and climate

The characterization of the fire regime in the boreal forest rarely considers spatial attributes other than fire size. This study investigates the spatial attributes of fires using the physiography of the landscape as a spatial constraint at a regional scale. Using the Canadian National Fire Database, the size, shape, orientation and eccentricity were assessed for 1,136 fires between 1970 and 2010 in Quebec’s boreal forest and were summarized by ecodistrict. These spatial metrics were used to cluster 33 ecodistricts into homogeneous fire zones and then to determine which environmental variables (climate, topography, hydrography, and surficial deposits) influence the spatial attributes of fires. Analyses showed that 28 out of 33 ecodistricts belonging to a given fire zone were spatially contiguous, suggesting that factors driving the spatial attributes of fire are acting at a regional scale. Indeed, the orientation and size of fires vary significantly among the zones and are driven by the spatial orientation of the landscape and the seasonal regional climate. In some zones, prevailing winds during periods conducive to fire events parallel to the orientation of the landscape may favour the occurrence of very large fires (>100,000 ha). Conversely, an orientation of the landscape opposite to the prevailing winds may act as a natural firebreak and limit the fire size and orientation. This study highlights the need to consider the synergistic relationship between the landscape spatial patterns and the climate regime over the spatial attributes of fire at supra-regional scale. Further scale-dependant studies are needed to improve our understanding of the spatial factors controlling the spatial attributes of fire.     

Influence of forest management alternatives and land type on susceptibility to fire in northern Wisconsin,USA

We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to study the effects of six alternative vegetation management scenarios on forest succession and the subsequent risk of canopy fire on a 2791 km² landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. The study area is a mix of fire-prone and fire-resistant land types. The alternatives vary the spatial distribution of vegetation management activities to meet objectives primarily related to forest composition and recreation. The model simulates the spatial dynamics of differential reproduction, dispersal, and succession patterns using the vital attributes of species as they are influenced by the abiotic environment and disturbance. We simulated 50 replicates of each management alternative and recorded the presence of species age cohorts capable of sustaining canopy fire and the occurrence of fire over 250 years. We combined these maps of fuel and fire to map the probability of canopy fires across replicates for each alternative. Canopy fire probability varied considerably by land type. There was also a subtle, but significant effect of management alternative, and there was a significant interaction between land type and management alternative. The species associated with high-risk fuels (conifers) tend to be favored by management alternatives with more disturbances, whereas low disturbance levels favor low-risk northern hardwood systems dominated by sugar maple. The effect of management alternative on fire risk to individual human communities was not consistent across the landscape. Our results highlight the value of the LANDIS model for identifying specific locations where interacting factors of land type and management strategy increase fire risk.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Land cover influences boreal-forest fire responses to climate change: geospatial analysis of historical records from Alaska

Context

Wildfire activity in boreal forests is projected to increase dramatically in response to anthropogenic climate change. By altering the spatial arrangement of fuels, land-cover configuration may interact with climate change to influence fire-regime dynamics at landscape and regional scales.

Objectives

We evaluate how land cover interacts with weather conditions to influence boreal-forest burning from 2012 to 2014 in Alaska.

Methods

Using geospatial fire and land-cover data, we quantify relationships between area burned and land cover, and test whether observed patterns of burning differ from random under varying weather conditions and fire sizes.

Results

Mean summer moisture index was correlated with annual area burned (ρ = ?0.78, p < 0.01), the total number of fires (ρ = ?0.68, p = 0.01), and the number of large fires (>500 km²; ρ = ?0.58, p = 0.04). Area burned was related positively to percent cover of coniferous forest and woody wetlands, and negatively to percent cover of shrub scrub, dwarf scrub, and open water and barren areas. Fires preferentially burned coniferous forest, which represented 50.1 % of the area burned in warmer/drier summers and 40.3 % of area burned in cooler/wetter summers, compared to the 34.5 % (±4.2 %) expected by random selection of land-cover classes. Overall vegetation tended to burn more similarly to random in warmer/drier than cooler/wetter years.

Conclusions

Land cover exerted greater influences on boreal fire regimes when weather conditions were less favorable for forest burning. Reliable projections of boreal fire-regime change thus require consideration of the interactions between climate and land cover, as well as feedbacks from land-cover change.

     

Land use history (1840–2005) and physiography as determinants of southern boreal forests

Land use history has altered natural disturbance dynamics, causing widespread modifications of the earth’s forests. The aim of this study is to reconstruct a regional, spatially-explicit, fire and logging history for a large southern boreal forest landscape (6,050 km²) of eastern Canada. We then examined the long-term influence of land use history, fires, and physiographical gradients on the area’s disturbances regimes, present-day age structure and tree species composition. Spatially-explicit fire (1820–2005) and logging (1900–2005) histories were reconstructed from forestry maps, terrestrial forest inventories and historical records (local newspapers, travel notes, regional historical reviews). Logistic regression was used to model the occurrence of major boreal tree species at the regional scale, in relation to their disturbance history and physiographical variables. The interplay of elevation and fire history was found to explain a large part of the present-day distribution of the four species studied. We conclude that human-induced fires following the colonization activities of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries have increased fire frequency and the dominance of fire-adapted species at lower elevations. At higher elevations, the low historical fire frequency has fostered the dominance of fire-sensitive species. Twentieth-century forestry practices and escaped settlement fires have generated a forest landscape dominated by younger forest habitats than in presettlement times. The expected increase of wildfire activity in North America’s eastern boreal forest, in conjunction with continued forest management, could have significant consequences on the resilience of boreal forests.     

Temporal patterns of ecosystem processes on simulated landscapes in Glacier National Park,Montana, USA

The mechanistic, spatially-explicit fire succession model, Fire-BGC (a Fire BioGeoChemical succession model) was used to investigate long-term trends in landscape pattern under historical and future fire regimes and present and future climate regimes for two 46000 ha landscapes in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Fire-BGC has two spatial and temporal resolutions in the simulation architecture where ecological processes that act at a landscape level, such as fire, are simulated annually from information contained in spatial data layers, while stand-level processes such as photosynthesis, transpiration, and decomposition are simulated both daily and annually. Fire is spread across the landscape using the FARSITE fire growth model and subsequent fire effects are simulated at the stand-level. Fire-BGC was used to simulate changes in landscape pattern over 250 years under four scenarios: (1) complete fire exclusion under current climate, (2) historical wildfire occurrence and current climate, (3) complete fire exclusion under a possible future climate, (4) future wildfire occurrence and future climate. Simulated maps of dominant tree species, aboveground standing crop, leaf area index, and net primary productivity (NPP) were contrasted across scenarios using the metrics of patch density, edge density, evenness, contagion, and interspersion. Simulation results indicate that fire influences landscape pattern metrics more that climate alone by creating more diverse, fragmented, and disconnected landscapes. Fires were more frequent, larger, and more intense under a future climate regime. Landscape metrics showed different trends for the process-based NPP map when compared to the cover type map. It may be important to augment landscape analyses with process-based layers as well as structural and compositional layers.     

Bottom-up control of a northern Arizona ponderosa pine forest fire regime in a fragmented landscape

Fire regimes often vary at fine spatial scales in response to factors such as topography or fuels while climate usually synchronizes fires across broader scales. We investigated the relative influence of top-down and bottom-up controls on fire occurrence in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in a highly fragmented landscape at Mount Dellenbaugh, in northwestern Arizona. Our study area of 4,000?ha was characterized by patches of ponderosa pine forest in drainages that were separated by a matrix of pinyon?Cjuniper woodlands, sagebrush shrublands, and perennial grasslands. We reconstructed fire histories from 135 fire-scarred trees in sixteen 25-ha sample sites placed in patches of mature ponderosa forest. We found that, among patches of ponderosa forest, fires were similar in terms of frequency but highly asynchronous in terms of individual years. Climate synchronized fire but only across broader spatial scales. Fires occurring at broader scales were associated with dry years that were preceded by several wet years. The remarkable level of asynchrony at finer scales suggests that bottom-up factors, such as site productivity and fuel continuity, were important in regulating fire at Mount Dellenbaugh. Understanding where bottom-up controls were historically influential is important for prioritizing areas that may best respond to fuel treatment under a warming climate.     

Long-term,landscape patterns of past fire events in a montane ponderosa pine forest of central Colorado

Parameters of fire regimes, including fire frequency, spatial extent of burned areas, fire severity, and season of fire occurrence, influence vegetation patterns over multiple scales. In this study, centuries-long patterns of fire events in a montane ponderosa pine – Douglas-fir forest landscape surrounding Cheesman Lake in central Colorado were reconstructed from fire-scarred trees and inferences from forest stand ages. We crossdated 153 fire-scarred trees from an approximately 4000 ha study area that recorded 77 total fire years from 1197 to the present. Spatial extent of burned areas during fire years varied from the scale of single trees or small clusters of trees to fires that burned across the entire landscape. Intervals between fire years varied from 1 to 29 years across the entire landscape to 3 to 58 years in one stand, to over 100 years in other stands. Large portions of the landscape did not record any fire for a 128 year-long period from 1723 to 1851. Fire severity varied from low-intensity surface fires to large-scale, stand-destroying fires, especially during the 1851 fire year but also possibly during other years. Fires occurred throughout tree growing seasons and both before and after growing seasons. These results suggest that the fire regime has varied considerably across the study area during the past several centuries. Since fires influence plant establishment and mortality on the landscape, these results further suggest that vegetation patterns changed at multiple scales during this period. The fire history from Cheesman Lake documents a greater range in fire behavior in ponderosa pine forests than generally has been found in previous studies.     

Environmental factors and ecological processes controlling vegetation patterns in boreal forests

An individual tree model of forest dynamics was used to examine the environmental and ecological factors controlling forest vegetation patterns in upland boreal forests of North America. Basic life history traits that characterized the regeneration, growth, and death of individual trees were combined with species-specific responses to important environmental factors. This model simulated forest structure and vegetation patterns in conifer, hardwood, and mixed conifer-hardwood forests and woodlands in several bioclimatic sub-regions of the North American boreal forest zone. Model testing identified the processes and parameters required to understand the ecology of upland boreal forests and weaknesses in our current understanding of these processes. These factors included climate, solar radiation, soil moisture, soil temperature and permafrost, the forest floor organic layer, nutrient availability, forest fires, and insect outbreaks. Model testing also identified which of these factors were important in each bioclimatic sub-region.     

Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems

Crown fires create broad-scale patterns in vegetation by producing a patch mosaic of stand age classes, but the spread and behavior of crown fires also may be constrained by spatial patterns in terrain and fuels across the landscape. In this review, we address the implications of landscape heterogeneity for crown fire behavior and the ecological effects of crown fires over large areas. We suggest that fine-scale mechanisms of fire spread can be extrapolated to make broad-scale predictions of landscape pattern by coupling the knowledge obtained from mechanistic and empirical fire behavior models with spatially-explicit probabilistic models of fire spread. Climatic conditions exert a dominant control over crown fire behavior and spread, but topographic and physiographic features in the landscape and the spatial arrangement and types of fuels have a strong influence on fire spread, especially when burning conditions (e.g., fuel moisture and wind) are not extreme. General trends in crown fire regimes and stand age class distributions can be observed across continental, latitudinal, and elevational gradients. Crown fires are more frequent in regions having more frequent and/or severe droughts, and younger stands tend to dominate these landscapes. Landscapes dominated by crown fires appear to be nonequilibrium systems. This nonequilibrium condition presents a significant challenge to land managers, particularly when the implications of potential changes in the global climate are considered. Potential changes in the global climate may alter not only the frequency of crown fires but also their severity. Crown fires rarely consume the entire forest, and the spatial heterogeneity of burn severity patterns creates a wide range of local effects and is likely to influence plant reestablishment as well as many other ecological processes. Increased knowledge of ecological processes at regional scales and the effects of landscape pattern on fire dynamics should provide insight into our understanding of the behavior and consequences of crown fires.     

Coupling ecosystem and landscape models to study the effects of plot number and location on prediction of forest landscape change

A fundamental but unsolved dilemma is that observation and prediction scales are often mismatched. Reconciling this mismatch largely depends on how to design samples on a heterogeneous landscape. In this study, we used a coupled modeling approach to investigate the effects of plot number and location on predicting tree species distribution at the landscape scale. We used an ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) to generate tree species response to the environment (a land type) at the plot scale. To explore realistic parameterization scenarios we used results from LINKAGES simulations on species establishment probabilities under the current and warming climate. This allowed us to design a series of plot number and location scenarios at the landscape scale. Species establishment probabilities for different land types were then used as input for the forest landscape model (LANDIS) that simulated tree species distribution at the landscape scale. To investigate the effects of plot number and location on forest landscape predictions, LANDIS considered effects of climate warming only for the land types in which experimental plots were placed; otherwise inputs for the current climate were used. We then statistically examined the relationships of response variables (species percent area) among these scenarios and the reference scenario in which plots were placed on all land types of the study area. Our results showed that for species highly or moderately sensitive to environmental heterogeneity, increasing plot numbers to cover as many land types as possible is the strategy to accurately predict species distribution at the landscape scale. In contrast, for species insensitive to environmental heterogeneity, plot location was more important than plot number. In this case, placing plots in land types with large area of species distribution is warranted. For some moderately sensitive species that experienced intense disturbance, results were different in different simulation periods. Results from this study may provide insights into sample design for forest landscape predictions.     

Scale-dependent determinants of heterogeneity in fire frequency in a coniferous boreal forest of eastern Canada

Despite the recognized importance of fire in North American boreal forests, the relative importance of stochastic and determinist portions of intra-regional spatial variability in fire frequency is still poorly understood. The first objective of this study is to identify sources of spatial variability in fire frequency in a landscape of eastern Quebec’s coniferous boreal forest. Broad-scale environmental factors considered included latitude, longitude, human activities and belonging to a given bioclimatic domain, whereas fine-scale factors included slope, position on the slope, aspect, elevation, surficial deposit and drainage. The average distance to waterbodies was also considered as a potential intermediate-scale source of variability in fire frequency. In order to assess these environmental factors’ potential influence, they were incorporated into a proportional hazard model, a semi-parametric form of survival analysis. We also used a digital elevation model in order to evaluate the dominant aspect within neighborhoods of varying sizes and successively incorporated these covariates into the proportional hazard model. We found that longitude significantly affects fire frequency, suggesting a maritime influence on fire frequency in this coastal landscape. We also found that position on the slope was related to fire frequency since hilltops and upperslopes were subject to a lower fire frequency. Dominant aspect was also related to fire frequency, but only when characterized within a neighborhood delimited by 4,000 to 10,000-m radii (5,027–31,416 ha). A 2–6-fold variation in fire frequency can be induced by geographic and topographic contexts, suggesting a substantial intra-regional heterogeneity in disturbance regime with potential consequences on forest dynamics and biodiversity patterns. Implications for forest management are also briefly discussed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Re-examining fire severity relations in pre-management era mixed conifer forests: inferences from landscape patterns of forest structure

For some time, ecologists have known that spatial patterns of forest structure reflected disturbance and recovery history, disturbance severity and underlying influences of environmental gradients. In spite of this awareness, historical forest structure has been little used to expand knowledge of historical fire severity. Here, we used forest structure to predict pre-management era fire severity across three biogeoclimatic zones in eastern Washington State, USA, that contained extensive mixed conifer forests. We randomly selected 10% of the subwatersheds in each zone, delineated patch boundaries, and photo-interpreted the vegetation attributes of every patch in each subwatershed using the oldest available stereo-aerial photography. We statistically reconstructed the vegetation of any patch showing evidence of early selective harvesting, and then classified them as to their most recent fire severity. Classification used published percent canopy mortality definitions and a dichotomized procedure that considered the overstory and understory canopy cover and size class attributes of a patch, and the fire tolerance of its cover type. Mixed severity fires were most prevalent, regardless of forest type. The structure of mixed conifer patches, in particular, was formed by a mix of disturbance severities. In moist mixed conifer, stand replacement effects were more widespread in patches than surface fire effects, while in dry mixed conifer, surface fire effects were more widespread by nearly 2:1. However, evidence for low severity fires as the primary influence, or of abundant old park-like patches, was lacking in both the dry and moist mixed conifer forests. The relatively low abundance of old, park-like or similar forest patches, high abundance of young and intermediate-aged patches, and widespread evidence of partial stand and stand-replacing fire suggested that variable fire severity and non-equilibrium patch dynamics were primarily at work.     

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Context

Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being.

Objective

We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species distribution changed under multiple climate change scenarios (PCM B1, CGCM A2, and GFDL A1FI) in northeastern forests.

Methods

We used the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model to simulate forest succession and tree harvest under current climate and three climate change scenarios from 2000 to 2300. We analyzed the effects of climate change on AGB and tree species distribution.

Results

AGB increased from 2000 to 2120 irrespective of climate scenario, followed by slight decline, but then increased again to 2300. AGB averaged 10 % greater in the CGCM A2 and GFDL A1FI scenarios than the PCM B1 and current climate scenarios. Climate change effects on tree species distribution were not evident from 2000 to 2100 but by 2300 some northern hardwood and conifer species decreased in occurrence and some central hardwood and southern tree species increased in occurrence.

Conclusions

Climate change had positive effects on forest biomass under the two climate scenarios with greatest warming but the patterns in AGB over time were similar among climate scenarios because succession was the primary driver of AGB dynamics. Our approach, which simulated stand dynamics and dispersal, demonstrated that a northward shift in tree species distributions may take 300 or more years.

     

Vertebrate distributions relative to clear-cut edges in a boreal forest landscape

Clearcutting is the main method of harvesting boreal forests, to some extent mimicking natural disturbances by fire and wind-felling. Effects of clearcutting on vertebrate fauna in managed forests was examined by small mammal trapping in spring and autumn, winter censuses of mammal snow tracks and censuses of birds in spring and summer in one central and one edge (125 m) section of large clearcuts and mature forests, respectively. There was a separate clearcut fauna, at least on large clearcuts, that was well distinguished from the forest fauna. There was not any physiognomic ecotone but the forest fauna showed a marked edge effect with larger numbers of many species in the peripheral parts of the forest. In the forests examined, with a Western European bird fauna, there were no typical interior forest species, in contrast to northern taiga forests. The present forest species easily changed distributions seasonally and according to variations in snow conditions and food abundance. Such generalist species in the boreal forest will therefore vary considerably in local density according to landscape composition but will also show large-scale persistence. They may have been selected for as a result of man's restructuring of temperate and boreal landscapes, e.g. by forest management. Edge effects seem to arise for several reasons but will probably only apply to generalist species.     

Getting to the root of the matter: landscape implications of plant-fungal interactions for tree migration in Alaska

Context

Forecasting the expansion of forest into Alaska tundra is critical to predicting regional ecosystem services, including climate feedbacks such as carbon storage. Controls over seedling establishment govern forest development and migration potential. Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), obligate symbionts of all Alaskan tree species, are particularly important to seedling establishment, yet their significance to landscape vegetation change is largely unknown.

Objective

We used ALFRESCO, a landscape model of wildfire and vegetation dynamics, to explore whether EMF inoculum potential influences patterns of tundra afforestation and associated flammability.

Methods

Using two downscaled CMIP3 general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCCMA) and a mid-range emissions scenario (A1B) at a 1 km² resolution, we compared simulated tundra afforestation rates and flammability from four parameterizations of EMF effects on seedling establishment and growth from 2000 to 2100.

Results

Modeling predicted an 8.8–18.2 % increase in forest cover from 2000 to 2100. Simulations that explicitly represented landscape variability in EMF inoculum potential showed a reduced percent change afforestation of up to a 2.8 % due to low inoculum potential limiting seedling growth. This reduction limited fuel availability and thus, cumulative area burned. Regardless of inclusion of EMF effects in simulations, landscape flammability was lower for simulations driven by the wetter and cooler CCCMA model than the warmer and drier ECHAM5 model, while tundra afforestation was greater.

Conclusions

Results suggest abiotic factors are the primary driver of tree migration. Simulations including EMF effects, a biotic factor, yielded more conservative estimates of land cover change across Alaska that better-matched empirical estimates from the previous century.