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1.
Matthew J. Duveneck Jonathan R. Thompson Eric J. Gustafson Yu Liang Arjan M. G. de Bruijn 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1385-1397
Context
Forests throughout eastern North America continue to recover from broad-scale intensive land use that peaked in the nineteenth century. These forests provide essential goods and services at local to global scales. It is uncertain how recovery dynamics, the processes by which forests respond to past forest land use, will continue to influence future forest conditions. Climate change compounds this uncertainty.Objectives
We explored how continued forest recovery dynamics affect forest biomass and species composition and how climate change may alter this trajectory.Methods
Using a spatially explicit landscape simulation model incorporating an ecophysiological model, we simulated forest processes in New England from 2010 to 2110. We compared forest biomass and composition from simulations that used a continuation of the current climate to those from four separate global circulation models forced by a high emission scenario (RCP 8.5).Results
Simulated forest change in New England was driven by continued recovery dynamics; without the influence of climate change forests accumulated 34 % more biomass and succeed to more shade tolerant species; Climate change resulted in 82 % more biomass but just nominal shifts in community composition. Most tree species increased AGB under climate change.Conclusions
Continued recovery dynamics will have larger impacts than climate change on forest composition in New England. The large increases in biomass simulated under all climate scenarios suggest that climate regulation provided by the eastern forest carbon sink has potential to continue for at least a century.2.
William D. Dijak Brice B. Hanberry Jacob S. Fraser Hong S. He Wen J. Wang Frank R. ThompsonIII 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1365-1384
Context
Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.Objectives
LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.Methods
We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.Results
Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.Conclusions
Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.3.
Jaymi J. LeBrun Jeffrey E. Schneiderman Frank R. ThompsonIII William D. Dijak Jacob S. Fraser Hong S. He Joshua J. Millspaugh 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1433-1446
Context
Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climate-induced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change.Objectives
We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian abundance through changes in forest landscapes and assessed impacts on bird abundances of forest management strategies designed to mitigate climate change effects.Methods
We coupled a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spatially explicit landscape simulation model (LANDIS PRO) to predict avian relative abundance. We considered multiple climate scenarios and forest management scenarios focused on carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change over 100 years.Results
Management had a greater impact on avian abundance (almost 50% change under some scenarios) than climate (<3% change) and only early successional and coniferous forest showed significant change in percent cover across time. The northern bobwhite was the only species that changed in abundance due to climate-induced changes in vegetation. Northern bobwhite, prairie warbler, and blue-winged warbler generally increased in response to warming temperatures but prairie warbler exhibited a non-linear response and began to decline as summer maximum temperatures exceeded 36 °C at the end of the century.Conclusion
Linking empirical models with process-based landscape change models can be an effective way to predict climate change and management impacts on wildlife, but time frames greater than 100 years may be required to see climate related effects. We suggest that future research carefully consider species-specific effects and interactions between management and climate.4.
Melissa S. Lucash Robert M. Scheller Eric J. Gustafson Brian R. Sturtevant 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(5):953-969
Context
Resilience, the ability to recover from disturbance, has risen to the forefront of scientific policy, but is difficult to quantify, particularly in large, forested landscapes subject to disturbances, management, and climate change.Objectives
Our objective was to determine which spatial drivers will control landscape resilience over the next century, given a range of plausible climate projections across north-central Minnesota.Methods
Using a simulation modelling approach, we simulated wind disturbance in a 4.3 million ha forested landscape in north-central Minnesota for 100 years under historic climate and five climate change scenarios, combined with four management scenarios: business as usual (BAU), maximizing economic returns (‘EcoGoods’), maximizing carbon storage (‘EcoServices’), and climate change adaption (‘CCAdapt’). To estimate resilience, we examined sites where simulated windstorms removed >70% of the biomass and measured the difference in biomass and species composition after 50 years.Results
Climate change lowered resilience, though there was wide variation among climate change scenarios. Resilience was explained more by spatial variation in soils than climate. We found that BAU, EcoGoods and EcoServices harvest scenarios were very similar; CCAdapt was the only scenario that demonstrated consistently higher resilience under climate change. Although we expected spatial patterns of resilience to follow ownership patterns, it was contingent upon whether lands were actively managed.Conclusions
Our results demonstrate that resilience may be lower under climate change and that the effects of climate change could overwhelm current management practices. Only a substantial shift in simulated forest practices was successful in promoting resilience.5.
Louis R. Iverson Frank R. ThompsonIII Stephen Matthews Matthew Peters Anantha Prasad William D. Dijak Jacob Fraser Wen J. Wang Brice Hanberry Hong He Maria Janowiak Patricia Butler Leslie Brandt Christopher Swanston 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1327-1346
Context
Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.Objectives
We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.Methods
We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.Results
Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.Conclusions
This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.6.
Yan Boulanger Anthony R. Taylor David T. Price Dominic Cyr Elizabeth McGarrigle Werner Rammer Guillaume Sainte-Marie André Beaudoin Luc Guindon Nicolas Mansuy 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1415-1431
Context
Forest landscapes at the southern boreal forest transition zone are likely to undergo great alterations due to projected changes in regional climate.Objectives
We projected changes in forest landscapes resulting from four climate scenarios (baseline, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), by simulating changes in tree growth and disturbances at the southern edge of Canada’s boreal zone.Methods
Projections were performed for four regions located on an east–west gradient using a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS).Results
Climate-induced changes in the competitiveness of dominant tree species due to changes in potential growth, and substantial intensification of the fire regime, appear likely to combine in driving major changes in boreal forest landscapes. Resulting cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems would be manifold but key changes would include (i) a strong decrease in the biomass of the dominant boreal species, especially mid- to late-successional conifers; (ii) increases in abundance of some temperate species able to colonize disturbed areas in a warmer climate; (iii) increases in the proportions of pioneer and fire-adapted species in these landscapes and (iv) an overall decrease in productivity and total biomass. The greatest changes would occur under the RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenario, but some impacts can be expected even with RCP 2.6.Conclusions
Western boreal forests, i.e., those bordering the prairies, are the most vulnerable because of a lack of species adapted to warmer climates and major increases in areas burned. Conservation and forest management planning within the southern boreal transition zone should consider both disturbance- and climate-induced changes in forest communities.7.
Rachel A. Loehman Robert E. Keane Lisa M. Holsinger Zhiwei Wu 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1447-1459
Context
Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.Objectives
We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.Methods
We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.Results
Interacting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.Conclusions
Understanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.8.
Brian Young John Yarie David Verbyla Falk Huettmann Keiko Herrick F. Stuart ChapinIII 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(2):397-413
Context
Patterns of forest diversity are less well known in the boreal forest of interior Alaska than in most ecosystems of North America. Proactive forest planning requires spatially accurate information about forest diversity. Modeling is a cost-efficient way of predicting key forest diversity measures as a function of human and environmental factors.Objectives
Investigate and predict the patterns and processes in tree species and tree size-class diversity within the boreal forest of Alaska for a first mapped quantitative baseline.Methods
For the boreal forest of Alaska, USA, we employed Random Forest Analysis (machine learning) and the Boruta algorithm in R to predict tree species and tree size-class diversity for the entire region using a combination of forest inventory data and a suite of 30 predictors from public open-access data archives that included climatic, distance, and topographic variables. We developed prediction maps in a GIS for the current levels (Year 2012) of tree size-class and species diversity.Results
The method employed here yielded good accuracy for the huge Alaskan landscape despite the exclusion of spectral reflectance data. It’s the first quantified GIS prediction baseline. The results indicate that the geographic pattern of tree species diversity differs from the pattern of tree size-class diversity across this forest type.Conclusions
The results suggest that human factors combined with topographical factors had a large impact on predicting the patterns of diversity in the boreal forest of interior Alaska.9.
E. L. Loudermilk R. M. Scheller P. J. Weisberg Alec Kretchun 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1461-1472
Context
Forest landscapes are increasingly managed for fire resilience, particularly in the western US which has recently experienced drought and widespread, high-severity wildfires. Fuel reduction treatments have been effective where fires coincide with treated areas. Fuel treatments also have the potential to reduce drought-mortality if tree density is uncharacteristically high, and to increase long-term carbon storage by reducing high-severity fire probability.Objective
Assess whether fuel treatments reduce fire intensity and spread and increase carbon storage under climate change.Methods
We used a simulation modeling approach that couples a landscape model of forest disturbance and succession with an ecosystem model of carbon dynamics (Century), to quantify the interacting effects of climate change, fuel treatments and wildfire for carbon storage potential in a mixed-conifer forest in the western USA.Results
Our results suggest that fuel treatments have the potential to ‘bend the C curve’, maintaining carbon resilience despite climate change and climate-related changes to the fire regime. Simulated fuel treatments resulted in reduced fire spread and severity. There was partial compensation of C lost during fuel treatments with increased growth of residual stock due to greater available soil water, as well as a shift in species composition to more drought- and fire-tolerant Pinus jeffreyi at the expense of shade-tolerant, fire-susceptible Abies concolor.Conclusions
Forest resilience to global change can be achieved through management that reduces drought stress and supports the establishment and dominance of tree species that are more fire- and drought-resistant, however, achieving a net C gain from fuel treatments may take decades.10.
Context
Growing evidence suggests that climate change could substantially alter forest disturbances. Interactions between individual disturbance agents are a major component of disturbance regimes, yet how interactions contribute to their climate sensitivity remains largely unknown.Objectives
Here, our aim was to assess the climate sensitivity of disturbance interactions, focusing on wind and bark beetle disturbances.Methods
We developed a process-based model of bark beetle disturbance, integrated into the dynamic forest landscape model iLand (already including a detailed model of wind disturbance). We evaluated the integrated model against observations from three wind events and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak, affecting 530.2 ha (3.8 %) of a mountain forest landscape in Austria between 2007 and 2014. Subsequently, we conducted a factorial experiment determining the effect of changes in climate variables on the area disturbed by wind and bark beetles separately and in combination.Results
iLand was well able to reproduce observations with regard to area, temporal sequence, and spatial pattern of disturbance. The observed disturbance dynamics was strongly driven by interactions, with 64.3 % of the area disturbed attributed to interaction effects. A +4 °C warming increased the disturbed area by +264.7 % and the area-weighted mean patch size by +1794.3 %. Interactions were found to have a ten times higher sensitivity to temperature changes than main effects, considerably amplifying the climate sensitivity of the disturbance regime.Conclusions
Disturbance interactions are a key component of the forest disturbance regime. Neglecting interaction effects can lead to a substantial underestimation of the climate change sensitivity of disturbance regimes.11.
Jiangtao Xiao Yu Liang Hong S. He Jonathan R. Thompson Wen J. Wang Jacob S. Fraser Zhiwei Wu 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1347-1363
Context
Forest landscape models (FLMs) are important tools for simulating forest changes over broad spatial and temporal scales. The ability of FLMs to accurately predict forest changes may be significantly influenced by the formulations of site-scale processes including seedling establishment, tree growth, competition, and mortality.Objective
The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of site-scale processes and interaction effects of site-scale processes and harvest on landscape-scale forest change predictions.Methods
We compared the differences in species’ distribution (quantified by species’ percent area), total aboveground biomass, and species’ biomass derived from two FLMs: (1) a model that explicitly incorporates stand density and size for each species age cohort (LANDIS PRO), and (2) a model that explicitly tracks biomass for each species age cohort (LANDIS-II with biomass succession extension), which are variants from the LANDIS FLM family with different formulations of site-scale processes.Results
For early successional species, the differences in simulated distribution and biomass were small (mostly less than 5 %). For mid- to late-successional species, the differences in simulated distribution and biomass were relatively large (10–30 %). The differences in species’ biomass predictions were generally larger than those for species’ distribution predictions. Harvest mediated the differences on landscape-scale predictions.Conclusions
The effects of site-scale processes on landscape-scale forest change predictions are dependent on species’ ecological traits such as shade tolerance, seed dispersal, and growth rates.12.
Thomas Ibanez Vanessa Hequet Céline Chambrey Tanguy Jaffré Philippe Birnbaum 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(8):1671-1687
Context
The biodiversity hotspot for conservation of New Caledonia has facing high levels of forest fragmentation. Remnant forests are critical for biodiversity conservation and can help in understanding how does forest fragmentation affect tree communities.Objective
Determine the effect of habitat configuration and availability on tree communities.Methods
We mapped forest in a 60 km2 landscape and sampled 93 tree communities in 52 forest fragments following stratified random sampling. At each sampling point, we inventoried all trees with a diameter at breast height ≥10 cm within a radius of 10 m. We then analysed the response of the composition, the structure and the richness of tree communities to the fragment size and isolation, distance from the edge, as well as the topographical position.Results
Our results showed that the distance from the forest edge was the variable that explained the greatest observed variance in tree assemblages. We observed a decrease in the abundance and richness of animal-dispersed trees as well as a decrease in the abundance of large trees with increasing proximity to forest edges. Near forest edges we found a shift in species composition with a dominance of stress-tolerant pioneer species.Conclusions
Edge-effects are likely to be the main processes that affect remnant forest tree communities after about a century of forest fragmentation. It results in retrogressive successions at the edges leading to a dominance of stress-tolerant species. The vegetation surrounding fragments should be protected to promote the long process of forest extension and subsequently reduce edge-effects.13.
Context
Converting monocultures to mixed-species stands is thought to be a promising approach to increase forest productivity and resilience, while additionally providing other ecosystem goods and services (EGS). However, the importance of tree species composition and structure remains unclear, particularly beyond the stand scale due to the difficulty of conducting comprehensive, long-term experiments.Objectives
To compare the ability of different tree species mixtures to provide various EGS at the landscape scale.Methods
We used a dynamic forest landscape model to simulate all possible combinations of dominant tree species for two landscapes; a high-elevation alpine region (Dischma valley, Switzerland) and a lowland valley (Mt. Feldberg, Germany). We evaluated multiple EGS, including protection from gravitational hazards, aboveground biomass, and habitat quality, and examined trade-offs and synergies between them.Results
Mixed-species forests were usually better in providing multiple EGS, although monocultures were often best for single EGS. The simulation results also demonstrated how changing environmental conditions along an elevational gradient had a strong impact on the structure of different species combinations and therefore on the provisioning of EGS.Conclusion
Tree species diversity alone is not a good predictor of multifunctionality. Mixtures should be selected based on local environmental conditions, complementary functional traits, and the ability to provide the EGS of interest. Although our work focused on current climatic conditions, we discuss how the modelling framework could be employed to consider the impacts of climate change and disturbances to improve our understanding of how mixed-species stands could be used to cope with these challenges.14.
Context
Field inventory plots which usually have small sizes of around 0.25–1 ha can only represent a sample of the much larger surrounding forest landscape. Based on airborne laser scanning (LiDAR) it has been shown for tropical forests that the bias in the selection of small field plots may hamper the extrapolation of structural forest attributes to larger spatial scales.Objectives
We conducted a LiDAR study on tropical montane forest and evaluated the representativeness of chosen inventory plots with respect to key structural attributes.Methods
We used six forest inventory and their surrounding landscape plots on Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and analyzed the similarities for mean top-of-canopy height (TCH), aboveground biomass (AGB), gap fraction, and leaf-area index (LAI). We also analyzed the similarity in gap-size frequencies for the landscape plots.Results
Mean biases between inventory and landscape plots were large reaching as much as 77% for gap fraction, 22% for LAI or 15% for AGB. Despite spatial heterogeneity of the landscape, gap-size frequency distributions were remarkably similar between the landscape plots.Conclusions
The study indicates that biases in field studies of forest structure may be strong. Even when mean values were similar between inventory and landscape plots, the mostly non-normally distributed probability densities of the forest variable indicated a considerable sampling error of the small field plot to approximate the forest variable in the surrounding landscape. This poses difficulties for the spatial extrapolation of forest structural attributes and for assessing biomass or carbon fluxes at larger regional scales.15.
Context
Terrestrial ecosystems, including tropical forests, are hypothesized to have tipping points beyond which environmental change triggers rapid and radical shifts to novel alternative states.Objective
We explored the overarching hypothesis that fire-mediated alternative stable states exist in the semi-deciduous tropical forest zone of Ghana, and that increased fire activity has pushed some forests to a new state in which a novel ecosystem with low tree density is maintained by fire.Methods
We combined a 30-year time series of remotely-sensed data with field measurements to assess land cover trends, the effects of fire on forest vegetation, and the reciprocal effects of vegetation change on fire regimes, in four forest reserves. We analyzed precipitation trends to determine if shifts in vegetation and fire regime reflected a shift to a drier climate.Results
Two of the reserves experienced forest loss, were impacted by frequent fires, and transitioned to a vegetation community dominated by shrubs and grasses, which was maintained by fire–vegetation feedbacks. The other two reserves experienced less fire, retained higher levels of forest cover, and resisted fire encroachment from surrounding agricultural areas. Precipitation remained relatively stable, suggesting a hysteresis effect in which different vegetation states and fire regimes coexist within a similar climate.Conclusion
There is potential for human land use and fire to create novel and persistent non-forest vegetation communities in areas that are climatically suitable for tropical forests. These disturbance-mediated regime shifts should be taken into account when assessing future trajectories of forest landscape change in West Africa.16.
Lisa A. McCauley Christine A. Ribic Lars Y. Pomara Benjamin Zuckerberg 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(4):807-821
Context
Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.Objectives
The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.Methods
We conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.Results
We uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.Conclusions
Future distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.17.
Context
Pasture-woodlands are semi-natural landscapes that result from the combined influences of climate, management, and intrinsic vegetation dynamics. These landscapes are sensitive to future changes in land use and climate, but our ability to predict the impact on ecosystem service provisioning is limited due to the disparate scales in time and space that govern their dynamics.Objectives
To develop a process-based model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes and the provisioning of ecosystem services (i.e., livestock forage, woody biomass and landscape heterogeneity).Methods
We modified a dynamic forest landscape model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes in Switzerland. This involved including an annual herbaceous layer, selective grazing from cattle, and interactions between grazing and tree recruitment. Results were evaluated within a particular pasture, and then the model was used to simulate regional vegetation patterns and livestock suitability for a ~198,000 ha landscape in the Jura Vaudois region.Results
The proportion of vegetation cover types at the pasture level (i.e., open, semi-open and closed forests) was well represented, but the spatial distribution of trees was only broadly similar. The entire Jura Vaudois region was simulated to be highly suitable for livestock, with only a small proportion being unsuitable due to steep slopes and high tree cover. High and low elevation pastures were equally suitable for livestock, as lower forage production at higher elevations was compensated by reduced tree cover.Conclusions
The modified model is valuable for assessing landscape to regional patterns in vegetation and livestock, and offers a platform to evaluate how climate and management impact ecosystem services.18.
Context
Biodiversity in arid regions is usually concentrated around limited water resources, so natural resource managers have constructed artificial water catchments in many areas to supplement natural waters. Because invasive species may also use these waters, dispersing into previously inaccessible areas, the costs and benefits of artificial waters must be gauged and potential invasion- and climate change-management strategies assayed.Objectives
We present a network analysis framework to identify waters that likely contribute to the spread of invasive species.Methods
Using the Sonoran Desert waters network and the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus)—a known predator, competitor, and carrier of pathogens deadly to other amphibians—as an example, we quantified the structural connectivity of the network to predict regional invasion potential under current and two future scenarios (climate change and management reduction) to identify waters to manage and monitor for invasive species.Results
We identified important and vulnerable waters based on connectivity metrics under scenarios representing current conditions, projected climate-limited conditions, and conditions based on removal of artificial waters. We identified 122,607 km2 of land that could be used as a buffer against invasion and 67,745 km2 of land that could be augmented by artificial water placement without facilitating invasive species spread.Conclusions
Structural connectivity metrics can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies for invasive species and climate mitigation.19.
Stephen R. Shifley Hong S. He Heike Lischke Wen J. Wang Wenchi Jin Eric J. Gustafson Jonathan R. Thompson Frank R. ThompsonIII William D. Dijak Jian Yang 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(7):1307-1325
Context
Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent.Objectives
We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities.Methods
We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs.Results
Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained by available data for model calibration and validation; computing capacity; model applicability to real-world problems; and ability to integrate biological, social, and economic drivers of change. As computing and data resources improved, a new class of spatially explicit forest landscape models emerged.Conclusions
We are at a point of great opportunity in development and application of forest dynamics models. Past limitations in computing capacity and in data suitable for model calibration or evaluation are becoming less restrictive. Forest landscape models, in particular, are ready to transition to a central role supporting forest management, planning, and policy decisions.Recommendations
Transitioning forest landscape models to a central role in applied decision making will require greater attention to evaluating performance; building application support staffs; expanding the included drivers of change, and incorporating metrics for social and economic inputs and outputs.20.
Poliana Mendes Kimberly A. With Luciana Signorelli Paulo De MarcoJr. 《Landscape Ecology》2017,32(4):745-762