Spatial dynamics of coastal forest bird assemblages: the influence of landscape context,forest type,and structural connectivity

Context

Complex structural connectivity patterns can influence the distribution of animals in coastal landscapes, particularly those with relatively large home ranges, such as birds. To understand the nuanced nature of coastal forest avifauna, where there may be considerable overlap in assemblages of adjacent forest types, the concerted influence of regional landscape context and vegetative structural connectivity at multiple spatial scales warrants investigation.

Objectives

This study determined whether species compositions of coastal forest bird assemblages differ with regional landscape context or with forest type, and if this is influenced by structural connectivity patterns measured at multiple spatial scales.

Methods

Three replicate bird surveys were conducted in four coastal forest types at ten survey locations across two regional landscape contexts in northeast Australia. Structural connectivity patterns of 11 vegetation types were quantified at 3, 6, and 12 km spatial scales surrounding each survey location, and differences in bird species composition were evaluated using multivariate ordination analysis.

Results

Bird assemblages differed between regional landscape contexts and most coastal forest types, although Melaleuca woodland bird assemblages were similar to those of eucalypt woodlands and rainforests. Structural connectivity was primarily correlated with differences in bird species composition between regional landscape contexts, and correlation depended on vegetation type and spatial scale.

Conclusions

Spatial scale, landscape context, and structural connectivity have a combined influence on bird species composition. This suggests that effective management of coastal landscapes requires a holistic strategy that considers the size, shape, and configuration of all vegetative components at multiple spatial scales.

     

Modeling and mapping forest diversity in the boreal forest of interior Alaska

Context

Patterns of forest diversity are less well known in the boreal forest of interior Alaska than in most ecosystems of North America. Proactive forest planning requires spatially accurate information about forest diversity. Modeling is a cost-efficient way of predicting key forest diversity measures as a function of human and environmental factors.

Objectives

Investigate and predict the patterns and processes in tree species and tree size-class diversity within the boreal forest of Alaska for a first mapped quantitative baseline.

Methods

For the boreal forest of Alaska, USA, we employed Random Forest Analysis (machine learning) and the Boruta algorithm in R to predict tree species and tree size-class diversity for the entire region using a combination of forest inventory data and a suite of 30 predictors from public open-access data archives that included climatic, distance, and topographic variables. We developed prediction maps in a GIS for the current levels (Year 2012) of tree size-class and species diversity.

Results

The method employed here yielded good accuracy for the huge Alaskan landscape despite the exclusion of spectral reflectance data. It’s the first quantified GIS prediction baseline. The results indicate that the geographic pattern of tree species diversity differs from the pattern of tree size-class diversity across this forest type.

Conclusions

The results suggest that human factors combined with topographical factors had a large impact on predicting the patterns of diversity in the boreal forest of interior Alaska.

     

Fire regimes and forest resilience: alternative vegetation states in the West African tropics

Context

Terrestrial ecosystems, including tropical forests, are hypothesized to have tipping points beyond which environmental change triggers rapid and radical shifts to novel alternative states.

Objective

We explored the overarching hypothesis that fire-mediated alternative stable states exist in the semi-deciduous tropical forest zone of Ghana, and that increased fire activity has pushed some forests to a new state in which a novel ecosystem with low tree density is maintained by fire.

Methods

We combined a 30-year time series of remotely-sensed data with field measurements to assess land cover trends, the effects of fire on forest vegetation, and the reciprocal effects of vegetation change on fire regimes, in four forest reserves. We analyzed precipitation trends to determine if shifts in vegetation and fire regime reflected a shift to a drier climate.

Results

Two of the reserves experienced forest loss, were impacted by frequent fires, and transitioned to a vegetation community dominated by shrubs and grasses, which was maintained by fire–vegetation feedbacks. The other two reserves experienced less fire, retained higher levels of forest cover, and resisted fire encroachment from surrounding agricultural areas. Precipitation remained relatively stable, suggesting a hysteresis effect in which different vegetation states and fire regimes coexist within a similar climate.

Conclusion

There is potential for human land use and fire to create novel and persistent non-forest vegetation communities in areas that are climatically suitable for tropical forests. These disturbance-mediated regime shifts should be taken into account when assessing future trajectories of forest landscape change in West Africa.

     

The formulations of site-scale processes affect landscape-scale forest change predictions: a comparison between LANDIS PRO and LANDIS-II forest landscape models

Context

Forest landscape models (FLMs) are important tools for simulating forest changes over broad spatial and temporal scales. The ability of FLMs to accurately predict forest changes may be significantly influenced by the formulations of site-scale processes including seedling establishment, tree growth, competition, and mortality.

Objective

The objectives of this study were to investigate the effects of site-scale processes and interaction effects of site-scale processes and harvest on landscape-scale forest change predictions.

Methods

We compared the differences in species’ distribution (quantified by species’ percent area), total aboveground biomass, and species’ biomass derived from two FLMs: (1) a model that explicitly incorporates stand density and size for each species age cohort (LANDIS PRO), and (2) a model that explicitly tracks biomass for each species age cohort (LANDIS-II with biomass succession extension), which are variants from the LANDIS FLM family with different formulations of site-scale processes.

Results

For early successional species, the differences in simulated distribution and biomass were small (mostly less than 5 %). For mid- to late-successional species, the differences in simulated distribution and biomass were relatively large (10–30 %). The differences in species’ biomass predictions were generally larger than those for species’ distribution predictions. Harvest mediated the differences on landscape-scale predictions.

Conclusions

The effects of site-scale processes on landscape-scale forest change predictions are dependent on species’ ecological traits such as shade tolerance, seed dispersal, and growth rates.

     

Climate change impacts on forest landscapes along the Canadian southern boreal forest transition zone

Context

Forest landscapes at the southern boreal forest transition zone are likely to undergo great alterations due to projected changes in regional climate.

Objectives

We projected changes in forest landscapes resulting from four climate scenarios (baseline, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), by simulating changes in tree growth and disturbances at the southern edge of Canada’s boreal zone.

Methods

Projections were performed for four regions located on an east–west gradient using a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS).

Results

Climate-induced changes in the competitiveness of dominant tree species due to changes in potential growth, and substantial intensification of the fire regime, appear likely to combine in driving major changes in boreal forest landscapes. Resulting cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems would be manifold but key changes would include (i) a strong decrease in the biomass of the dominant boreal species, especially mid- to late-successional conifers; (ii) increases in abundance of some temperate species able to colonize disturbed areas in a warmer climate; (iii) increases in the proportions of pioneer and fire-adapted species in these landscapes and (iv) an overall decrease in productivity and total biomass. The greatest changes would occur under the RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenario, but some impacts can be expected even with RCP 2.6.

Conclusions

Western boreal forests, i.e., those bordering the prairies, are the most vulnerable because of a lack of species adapted to warmer climates and major increases in areas burned. Conservation and forest management planning within the southern boreal transition zone should consider both disturbance- and climate-induced changes in forest communities.

     

Habitat and food supply across multiple spatial scales influence the distribution and abundance of a nocturnal aerial insectivore

Context

Conservation research often focuses on individual threats at a single spatial scale, but population declines can result from multiple stressors occurring at different spatial scales. Analyses incorporating alternative hypotheses across spatial scales allow more robust evaluation of the ecological processes underlying population declines.

Objectives

Populations of many aerially insectivorous birds are declining, yet conservation efforts remain focused on habitat due to an absence of data on changes in prey availability. We evaluate the potential for prey and habitat availability at multiple spatial scales to influence a population of eastern whip-poor-wills (Antrostomus vociferous).

Methods

We assess relationships between landcover (topographical map and satellite imagery) and insect abundance (moths and beetles from blacklight traps), and whip-poor-will distribution and abundance within eastern Canada using Ontario breeding bird atlas data (1980s and 2000s), acoustic recordings (regional), and point counts (local).

Results

Whip-poor-will occurrence in both atlas time periods was positively associated with forest area and fragmentation, but only a delayed effect of urban area explained reductions in detection. Contemporary regional whip-poor-will presence was positively related to moth abundance, and local whip-poor-will abundance was best predicted by area of open-canopy forest, anthropogenic linear disturbance density, and beetle abundance. Our finding that bird presence and abundance were associated with human activity and insect abundance across spatial scales suggests factors beyond habitat structure are likely driving population declines in whip-poor-wills and other aerial insectivores.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the importance of examining multiple hypotheses, including seasonally and locally variable food availability, across a range of spatial scales to direct conservation efforts.

     

The past and future of modeling forest dynamics: from growth and yield curves to forest landscape models

Context

Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent.

Objectives

We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities.

Methods

We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs.

Results

Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained by available data for model calibration and validation; computing capacity; model applicability to real-world problems; and ability to integrate biological, social, and economic drivers of change. As computing and data resources improved, a new class of spatially explicit forest landscape models emerged.

Conclusions

We are at a point of great opportunity in development and application of forest dynamics models. Past limitations in computing capacity and in data suitable for model calibration or evaluation are becoming less restrictive. Forest landscape models, in particular, are ready to transition to a central role supporting forest management, planning, and policy decisions.

Recommendations

Transitioning forest landscape models to a central role in applied decision making will require greater attention to evaluating performance; building application support staffs; expanding the included drivers of change, and incorporating metrics for social and economic inputs and outputs.

     

Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

Context

Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales.

Objectives

LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under future climate and to parameterize forest landscape models (FLMs) used to evaluate forest succession under climate change.

Methods

We simulated total tree biomass and responses of individual tree species in each of the 74 ecological subsections across the central hardwood region of the United States under current climate and projected climate at the end of the century from two general circulation models and two representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.

Results

Forest composition and abundance varied by ecological subsection with more dramatic changes occurring with greater changes in temperature and precipitation and on soils with lower water holding capacity. Biomass production across the region followed patterns of soil quality.

Conclusions

Linkages 3.0 predicted realistic responses to soil and climate gradients and its application was a useful approach for considering growth potential and maximum growing space under future climates. We suggest Linkages 3.0 can also can used to inform parameter estimates in FLMs such as species establishment and maximum growing space.

     

Using airborne LiDAR to assess spatial heterogeneity in forest structure on Mount Kilimanjaro

Context

Field inventory plots which usually have small sizes of around 0.25–1 ha can only represent a sample of the much larger surrounding forest landscape. Based on airborne laser scanning (LiDAR) it has been shown for tropical forests that the bias in the selection of small field plots may hamper the extrapolation of structural forest attributes to larger spatial scales.

Objectives

We conducted a LiDAR study on tropical montane forest and evaluated the representativeness of chosen inventory plots with respect to key structural attributes.

Methods

We used six forest inventory and their surrounding landscape plots on Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and analyzed the similarities for mean top-of-canopy height (TCH), aboveground biomass (AGB), gap fraction, and leaf-area index (LAI). We also analyzed the similarity in gap-size frequencies for the landscape plots.

Results

Mean biases between inventory and landscape plots were large reaching as much as 77% for gap fraction, 22% for LAI or 15% for AGB. Despite spatial heterogeneity of the landscape, gap-size frequency distributions were remarkably similar between the landscape plots.

Conclusions

The study indicates that biases in field studies of forest structure may be strong. Even when mean values were similar between inventory and landscape plots, the mostly non-normally distributed probability densities of the forest variable indicated a considerable sampling error of the small field plot to approximate the forest variable in the surrounding landscape. This poses difficulties for the spatial extrapolation of forest structural attributes and for assessing biomass or carbon fluxes at larger regional scales.

     

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Context

Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being.

Objective

We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species distribution changed under multiple climate change scenarios (PCM B1, CGCM A2, and GFDL A1FI) in northeastern forests.

Methods

We used the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model to simulate forest succession and tree harvest under current climate and three climate change scenarios from 2000 to 2300. We analyzed the effects of climate change on AGB and tree species distribution.

Results

AGB increased from 2000 to 2120 irrespective of climate scenario, followed by slight decline, but then increased again to 2300. AGB averaged 10 % greater in the CGCM A2 and GFDL A1FI scenarios than the PCM B1 and current climate scenarios. Climate change effects on tree species distribution were not evident from 2000 to 2100 but by 2300 some northern hardwood and conifer species decreased in occurrence and some central hardwood and southern tree species increased in occurrence.

Conclusions

Climate change had positive effects on forest biomass under the two climate scenarios with greatest warming but the patterns in AGB over time were similar among climate scenarios because succession was the primary driver of AGB dynamics. Our approach, which simulated stand dynamics and dispersal, demonstrated that a northward shift in tree species distributions may take 300 or more years.

     

Multi-temporal trajectories of landscape change explain forest biodiversity in urbanizing ecosystems

Context

Forest loss and fragmentation negatively affect biodiversity. However, disturbances in forest canopy resulting from repeated deforestation and reforestation are also likely important drivers of biodiversity, but are overlooked when forest cover change is assessed using a single time interval.

Objectives

We investigated two questions at the nexus of plant diversity and forest cover change dynamics: (1) Do multitemporal forest cover change trajectories explain patterns of plant diversity better than a simple measure of overall forest change? (2) Are specific types of forest cover change trajectories associated with significantly higher or lower levels of diversity?

Methods

We sampled plant biodiversity in forests spanning the Charlotte, NC, region. We derived forest cover change trajectories occurring within nested spatial extents per sample site using a time series of aerial photos from 1938 to 2009, then classified trajectories by spatio-temporal patterns of change. While accounting for landscape and environmental covariates, we assessed the effects of the trajectory classes as compared to net forest cover change on native plant diversity.

Results

Our results indicated that forest stand diversity is best explained by forest change trajectories, while the herb layer is better explained by net forest cover change. Three distinct forest change trajectory classes were found to influence the forest stand and herb layer.

Conclusions

The influence of forest dynamics on biodiversity can be overlooked in analyses that use only net forest cover change. Our results illustrate the utility of assessing how specific trajectories of past land cover change influence biodiversity patterns in the present.

     

Wood fibre value simulation model: a new tool to assist measuring changes in forest landscapes by evaluating forest inventory

Context

A challenging issue in landscape ecology is the evaluation of changes in a forest landscape following a disturbance. This evaluation usually entails examining changes in the forest inventory, which represents the best information available for a given forest region.

Objectives

Our aim was to extend existing methods used to evaluate forest inventory to include additional variables, such as value-based forest product options, wood fibre attributes, and ecosystem services. Inclusion of such variables in forest inventory evaluations would allow research results to be presented from an economic perspective, which is often required for policy development and forest management decision-making.

Methods

We developed a value-based framework to evaluate forest inventory and implemented it in the wood fibre value simulation model. We then used a local data set from Manitoba, Canada, to show how the model can be applied to the mapping of new inventory layers to facilitate the evaluation of landscape changes.

Results

Five new inventory layers are mapped including bioenergy and heating value that can be directly used for evaluating landscape changes, and wood density, fibre length, and pulp yield, which can be combined with total wood volume to derive new variables or indices to express changes in landscape conditions.

Conclusions

Our model can contribute to the assessment of landscape changes by indicating the values a forest can have when it is used for different conservation or utilization purposes. The model can also support improved decision-making with respect to the management of forest resources.

     

Scale-specific habitat relationships influence patch occupancy: defining neighborhoods to optimize the effectiveness of landscape-scale grassland bird conservation

Context

Beyond the recognized importance of protecting large areas of contiguous habitat, conservation efforts for many species are complicated by the fact that patch suitability may also be affected by characteristics of the landscape within which the patch is located. Currently, little is known about the spatial scales at which species respond to different aspects of the landscape surrounding an occupied patch.

Objectives

Using grassland bird point count data, we describe an approach to evaluating scale-specific effects of landscape composition on patch occupancy.

Methods

We used data from 793 point count surveys conducted in idle and grazed grasslands across Wisconsin, USA from 2012 to 2014 to evaluate scale-dependencies in the response of grassland birds to landscape composition. Patch occupancy models were used to evaluate the relationship between occupancy and landscape composition at scales from 100 to 3000 m.

Results

Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) exhibited a pattern indicating selection for grassland habitats in the surrounding landscape at all spatial scales while selecting against other habitats. Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna) displayed evidence of scale sensitivity for all habitat types. Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) showed a strong positive response to pasture and idle grass at all scales and negatively to cropland at large scales. Unlike other species, patch occupancy by Henslow’s Sparrow (A. henslowii) was primarily influenced by patch area.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that both working grasslands (pasture) and idle conservation grasslands can play an important role in grassland bird conservation but also highlight the importance of considering species-specific patch and landscape characteristics for effective conservation.

     

Effects of bird and bat exclusion on coffee pest control at multiple spatial scales

Context

Despite the key role of biological control in agricultural landscapes, we still poorly understand how landscape structure modulates pest control at different spatial scales.

Objectives

Here we take an experimental approach to explore whether bird and bat exclusion affects pest control in sun coffee plantations, and whether this service is consistent at different spatial scales.

Methods

We experimentally excluded flying vertebrates from coffee plants in 32 sites in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, encompassing a gradient of forest cover at landscape (2 km radius) and local (300 m) spatial scales, and quantified coffee leaf loss, as an indicator of herbivory, and fruit set.

Results

Leaf loss decreased with higher landscape forest cover, but this relation was significantly different between treatment and control plants depending on local forest cover. On the other hand, fruit set responded to the interaction between treatment and local forest cover but was not affected by landscape forest cover. More specifically, fruit set increased significantly with local forest cover in exclusion treatments and showed a non-significant decrease in open controls.

Conclusions

These results suggest that services provided by flying vertebrates are modulated by processes occurring at different spatial scales. We posit that in areas with high local forest cover flying vertebrates may establish negative interactions with predaceous arthropods (i.e. intraguild predation), but this would not be the case in areas with low local forest cover. We highlight the importance of employing a multi-scale analysis in systems where multiple species, which perceive the landscape differently, are providing ecosystem services.

     

Effects of land use on population presence and genetic structure of an amphibian in an agricultural landscape

Context

Species distributions are a function of an individual’s ability to disperse to and colonize habitat patches. These processes depend upon landscape configuration and composition.

Objectives

Using Blanchard’s cricket frogs (Acris blanchardi), we assessed which land cover types were predictive of (1) presence at three spatial scales (pond-shed, 500 and 2500 m) and (2) genetic structure. We predicted that forested, urban, and road land covers would negatively affect cricket frogs. We also predicted that agricultural, field, and aquatic land covers would positively affect cricket frogs.

Methods

We surveyed for cricket frogs at 28 sites in southwestern Ohio, USA to determine presence across different habitats and analyze genetic structure among populations. For our first objective, we examined if land use (crop, field, forest, and urban habitat) and landscape features (ponds, streams, and roads) explained presence; for our second objective, we assessed whether these land cover types explained genetic distance between populations.

Results

Land cover did not have a strong influence on cricket frog presence. However, multiple competing models suggested effects of roads, streams, and land use. We found genetic structuring: populations were grouped into five major clusters and nine finer-scale clusters. Highways were predictive of increased genetic distance.

Conclusions

By combining a focal-patch study with landscape genetics, our study suggests that major roads and waterways are key features affecting species distributions in agricultural landscapes. We demonstrate that cricket frogs may respond to landscape features at larger spatial scales, and that presence and movement may be affected by different environmental factors.

     

Bending the carbon curve: fire management for carbon resilience under climate change

Context

Forest landscapes are increasingly managed for fire resilience, particularly in the western US which has recently experienced drought and widespread, high-severity wildfires. Fuel reduction treatments have been effective where fires coincide with treated areas. Fuel treatments also have the potential to reduce drought-mortality if tree density is uncharacteristically high, and to increase long-term carbon storage by reducing high-severity fire probability.

Objective

Assess whether fuel treatments reduce fire intensity and spread and increase carbon storage under climate change.

Methods

We used a simulation modeling approach that couples a landscape model of forest disturbance and succession with an ecosystem model of carbon dynamics (Century), to quantify the interacting effects of climate change, fuel treatments and wildfire for carbon storage potential in a mixed-conifer forest in the western USA.

Results

Our results suggest that fuel treatments have the potential to ‘bend the C curve’, maintaining carbon resilience despite climate change and climate-related changes to the fire regime. Simulated fuel treatments resulted in reduced fire spread and severity. There was partial compensation of C lost during fuel treatments with increased growth of residual stock due to greater available soil water, as well as a shift in species composition to more drought- and fire-tolerant Pinus jeffreyi at the expense of shade-tolerant, fire-susceptible Abies concolor.

Conclusions

Forest resilience to global change can be achieved through management that reduces drought stress and supports the establishment and dominance of tree species that are more fire- and drought-resistant, however, achieving a net C gain from fuel treatments may take decades.

     

A network model framework for prioritizing wetland conservation in the Great Plains

Context

Playa wetlands are the primary habitat for numerous wetland-dependent species in the Southern Great Plains of North America. Plant and wildlife populations that inhabit these wetlands are reciprocally linked through the dispersal of individuals, propagules and ultimately genes among local populations.

Objective

To develop and implement a framework using network models for conceptualizing, representing and analyzing potential biological flows among 48,981 spatially discrete playa wetlands in the Southern Great Plains.

Methods

We examined changes in connectivity patterns and assessed the relative importance of wetlands to maintaining these patterns by targeting wetlands for removal based on network centrality metrics weighted by estimates of habitat quality and probability of inundation.

Results

We identified several distinct, broad-scale sub networks and phase transitions among playa wetlands in the Southern Plains. In particular, for organisms that can disperse >2 km a dense and expansive wetland sub network emerges in the Southern High Plains. This network was characterized by localized, densely connected wetland clusters at link distances (h) >2 km but <5 km and was most sensitive to changes in wetland availability (p) and configuration when h = 4 km, and p = 0.2–0.4. It transitioned to a single, large connected wetland system at broader spatial scales even when the proportion of inundated wetland was relatively low (p = 0.2).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that redundancy in the potential for broad and fine-scale movements insulates this system from damage and facilitates system-wide connectivity among populations with different dispersal capacities.

     

Consequences of a large-scale fragmentation experiment for Neotropical bats: disentangling the relative importance of local and landscape-scale effects

Context

Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation are widespread drivers of biodiversity decline. Understanding how habitat quality interacts with landscape context, and how they jointly affect species in human-modified landscapes, is of great importance for informing conservation and management.

Objectives

We used a whole-ecosystem manipulation experiment in the Brazilian Amazon to investigate the relative roles of local and landscape attributes in affecting bat assemblages at an interior-edge-matrix disturbance gradient.

Methods

We surveyed bats in 39 sites, comprising continuous forest (CF), fragments, forest edges and intervening secondary regrowth. For each site, we assessed vegetation structure (local-scale variable) and, for five focal scales, quantified habitat amount and four landscape configuration metrics.

Results

Smaller fragments, edges and regrowth sites had fewer species and higher levels of dominance than CF. Regardless of the landscape scale analysed, species richness and evenness were mostly related to the amount of forest cover. Vegetation structure and configurational metrics were important predictors of abundance, whereby the magnitude and direction of response to configurational metrics were scale-dependent. Responses were ensemble-specific with local-scale vegetation structure being more important for frugivorous than for gleaning animalivorous bats.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that scale-sensitive measures of landscape structure are needed for a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of fragmentation on tropical biota. Although forest fragments and regrowth habitats can be of conservation significance for tropical bats our results further emphasize that primary forest is of irreplaceable value, underlining that their conservation can only be achieved by the preservation of large expanses of pristine habitat.

     

Integrating models across temporal and spatial scales to simulate landscape patterns and dynamics in mountain pasture-woodlands

Context

Pasture-woodlands are semi-natural landscapes that result from the combined influences of climate, management, and intrinsic vegetation dynamics. These landscapes are sensitive to future changes in land use and climate, but our ability to predict the impact on ecosystem service provisioning is limited due to the disparate scales in time and space that govern their dynamics.

Objectives

To develop a process-based model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes and the provisioning of ecosystem services (i.e., livestock forage, woody biomass and landscape heterogeneity).

Methods

We modified a dynamic forest landscape model to simulate pasture-woodland landscapes in Switzerland. This involved including an annual herbaceous layer, selective grazing from cattle, and interactions between grazing and tree recruitment. Results were evaluated within a particular pasture, and then the model was used to simulate regional vegetation patterns and livestock suitability for a ~198,000 ha landscape in the Jura Vaudois region.

Results

The proportion of vegetation cover types at the pasture level (i.e., open, semi-open and closed forests) was well represented, but the spatial distribution of trees was only broadly similar. The entire Jura Vaudois region was simulated to be highly suitable for livestock, with only a small proportion being unsuitable due to steep slopes and high tree cover. High and low elevation pastures were equally suitable for livestock, as lower forage production at higher elevations was compensated by reduced tree cover.

Conclusions

The modified model is valuable for assessing landscape to regional patterns in vegetation and livestock, and offers a platform to evaluate how climate and management impact ecosystem services.

     

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Context

Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climate-induced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change.

Objectives

We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian abundance through changes in forest landscapes and assessed impacts on bird abundances of forest management strategies designed to mitigate climate change effects.

Methods

We coupled a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spatially explicit landscape simulation model (LANDIS PRO) to predict avian relative abundance. We considered multiple climate scenarios and forest management scenarios focused on carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change over 100 years.

Results

Management had a greater impact on avian abundance (almost 50% change under some scenarios) than climate (<3% change) and only early successional and coniferous forest showed significant change in percent cover across time. The northern bobwhite was the only species that changed in abundance due to climate-induced changes in vegetation. Northern bobwhite, prairie warbler, and blue-winged warbler generally increased in response to warming temperatures but prairie warbler exhibited a non-linear response and began to decline as summer maximum temperatures exceeded 36 °C at the end of the century.

Conclusion

Linking empirical models with process-based landscape change models can be an effective way to predict climate change and management impacts on wildlife, but time frames greater than 100 years may be required to see climate related effects. We suggest that future research carefully consider species-specific effects and interactions between management and climate.