印度尼西亚木材工业现状及发展前景

木材工业是印尼仅次于石油和天然气的第3大产业。近20年来,印尼的木材工业发展迅速,已成为当今世界上最大的阔叶材胶合板生产国和出口国。本文阐述了印尼木材工业发展战略和政策,生产体系的结构与变化,以及未来的发展趋势。     

The observation of log export banning policy in Indonesia: Conditions, problems, and alternative solutions

In 1985, the government of Indonesia declared an export ban on logs in order to promote the wood processing industry within the country. Furthermore, this policy was followed by a regulation that the concessionaires have to build their own industry, causing a great increase in wood industry. In the early period after the log export ban, the government found it to be successful and there were no significant problems. Unfortunately, after one decade, Indonesia’s forestry sector faced some serious problems,i.e. problems in raw material supply which was lower than the log demand level in the industry, deforestation issues, and ecological imbalance. The main objectives of this study are to identify the effects of the log export ban and to introduce some alternate measures.     

日本林产品供需现状与林业政策走向

日本是世界上林业发达国家之一, 面对林业生产衰退和地震灾害, 通过林业政策调整实现了木材供需改善和林业产业体系改造, 因此研究日本林业生产现状和政策走向对我国林业现代化建设具有重要的借鉴意义。文中介绍了日本林业产业总体发展态势, 重点分析了原木生产情况以及锯材、胶合板、人造板等木材加工企业情况, 概述了日本木材供给需求变化和木材进出口变化以及应对这些变化的最新林业政策和发展规划, 特别是林业需求促进政策的新变化和新内容, 并借鉴日本经验提出了促进中国林业现代化发展的几点政策建议。     

中国胶合板出口影响因素及贸易潜力——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

文中基于中国胶合板出口面板数据构建随机前沿引力模型,实证分析中国胶合板出口影响因素及贸易潜力。贸易非效率项分析结果表明:人民币贬值和自由贸易协定是贸易促进因素,出口目的地货币贬值、金融危机以及反倾销和反补贴是贸易阻碍因素。根据贸易潜力分析结果,将中国胶合板出口市场分为4种类型,即高潜力低效率的新兴市场、高潜力高效率的成熟市场、低潜力低效率的待开发市场和低潜力高效率的次要市场;在此基础上,针对不同市场类型的特点提出优化中国胶合板行业出口贸易布局的战略措施。     

Determinants of illegal logging in Indonesia: An empirical analysis for the period 1996–2010

Illegal logging is a significant problem in Indonesia, which is one of the few countries with a large forest area. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect harvesting and supply of illegal timber from Indonesia to China and Japan. Moreover, we investigate the factors that lead to the demand of Indonesian illegal timber from China and Japan. A simultaneous-equation econometric model of illegally logged timber demand and supply is developed and tested using the annual data over the period 1996–2010. We find that corruption and decentralization in Indonesia have significant and positive impacts on the illegally logged timber supply while excess demand in Japanese construction and furniture industries as well as Japan’s housing starts are the significant factors that affect the illegal logging in Indonesia. The law enforcement or policies aimed at reducing illegal harvesting in Indonesia are found to be more effective than the policies targeting the import of illegally logged timber into Japan and China.     

A general equilibrium analysis of the economic aspects of the imposition of an export tax on the plywood sector in Indonesia

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are extensively used to simulate the economic impact of forest policies. In this study, we conduct a counterfactual analysis to assess the impact of an export tax ranging from 5 to 20% on the plywood sector to the Indonesian economy. The indonesian economy is aggregated into 5 sectors: 2 sectors are related to forest,i.e., (1) log, and (2) plywood. The other three sectors are not related to forest,i.e., (3) non-wood manufacturing, (4) agriculture, quarrying, and services, and (5) construction. The simulation results show that an export tax on the plywood processing sector is negatively correlated with real GDP and labor demand in log and plywood sectors, but is positively correlated with total labor demand, government revenue, income distribution, wood resources and social welfare. Reduction in labor demand by log and plywood sectors, due to a plywood export tax, can be absorbed in other sectors. The simulated policy of an export tax on plywood can reserve trees in production forests for future use.     

The changing administration and role of forestry in the economy of Vietnam

This paper reviews the changing forestry policies in Vietnam from the 1980s to the present. The role of forestry in the economy, developments in forest industries, government programs to encourage plantation establishment, and trade progress are examined. It is concluded that while there is a shortage of timber, log prices to growers are low due to high markups along the supply chain. Government programs such as the Five Million Hectares forestry program will lead to major supply increases in the future, but improvements in timber marketing will remain critical. While forestry exports from Vietnam have increased in the last decade, this has been based mainly on traditional handicrafts. Small enterprise size and lack of advanced technology limit export competitiveness.     

世界木材市场浅析

世界原木出口量呈下降趋势;加工的半成品、产品出口量呈增长趋势。木材出口国和地区为北美、欧洲、苏联和东南亚,而进口国和地区主要有日本、欧洲、中国和南朝鲜。文中研究了木材贸易与经济周期的关系以及贸易保护主义和集团化倾向对木材贸易的影响。建议我国木材进出口应实行多元化和协调一致共同对外的方针,同时要优化木材产品结构并抑制某些木材产品的过热消费。     

日本林产品供需现状和发展趋势

介绍了日本原木、锯材、胶合板、单板和集成材等的生产情况,分析了日本包括木片和纸产品在内的各种林产品的进口情况,林产品供需现状和前景,以及林产品贸易伙伴和贸易趋势。最后,结合中国的实际情况,提出发展中国林产工业的建议和策略。     

A separable goal-programming model of the Indonesian forestry sector

The latest of three models designed to analyze long-term development plans of the forestry sector of Indonesia is presented. The planning problem consists in determining the geographic pattern of forest exploitation, industrial processing, and transportation which minimizes total costs. Costs include direct costs of various operations, and indirect costs of not satisfying domestic demand and of not fully using potential exports. The model has a goal programming structure. Goal variables measure deviations from demand and export targets, or industrial and port capacity expansion at various points. Other variables relate to the transport of logs, sawnwood and plywood, and fuelwood. Cost of port capacity expansion is a non-linear function of capacity, modeled by separable programming.     

国际金融危机前后中美主要木质林产品出口变化分析

分析中关两国2005—2012年主要木质林产品和木质家具的出口变化情况。结果表明：中美两国在两个时期内（2005—2008年、2009—2012年）主要林产品出口额变化差距较大。2009～2012年与2005—2008年相比,美国出口的主要林产品有所增长,但增幅不大;相反,中国出口的主要林产品大幅增长。林产品出口区域方面,中国在纸浆、原木和锯材进口方面已经跃居为美国林产品第一大出口国,另外近年来美国主要林产品出口国涌现出新成员,如韩国、越南、印度等。受美国金融危机的影响,2009年美国各主要林产品的出口受到严重影响。纸和纸板、纸浆和纸制品的出口贸易额跌幅最为显著;从跌幅比例来看,刨花板、单板和胶合板下跌百分比较大,分别为45．58％、30．99％和26．17％。2009年中国主要林产品的出口较2008年下降10．25％,其中刨花板、单板和胶合板下降比例最大,分别达到29．49％、29．21和25．78％,对纸和纸板出口的影响最小,降幅为2．30％。     

印度尼西亚实木加工业的发展及其影响因素

近30年来,印尼首次发展成为世界上第二大工业圆材出口国和最大的胶合板出口国。分析促进印尼实木业发展的因素,主要得益于其丰富的森林资源,实木加工业处于印尼实木产品出口快速增长期,具有廉价的、专业或半专业化的劳动力,对天然林工业圆材征收较低的立木税,促进实木业发展的林业贸易和工业政策,有利的地区性市场结构。还分析了印尼实木加工业的发展前景。     

日本《种苗法》限制品种出口制度及其启示

作为亚洲最早实施植物新品种保护制度的国家,日本具有与我国相近的文化传统和农业生产条件,能够为完善我国植物新品种保护制度提供立法参考。文中主要介绍日本限制品种出口制度的申请权、撤销权、公示前撤回权等主要内容,并对制度颁布前后进行了对比。日本限制品种出口制度定位明确,并与原有制度形成了较好的衔接机制,自生效以来表现出较好的社会实施效果。我国应立足现有制度基础,加强植物新品种保护政策支持,制定植物新品种保护专门法律,开展限制品种出口制度试点工作,以期为保护我国优良植物品种提供制度指引。     

80年代世界林产工业发展概况

文章分别介绍了８０年代发达国家和发展中国家的森林工业政策和实施措施；分析了８０年代世界林产工业发展的特点，对工业材、薪炭材、纸和纸板、人造板等的生产及其增长情况进行了详细论述。     

Why do Farmers Prefer Oil Palm? Lessons Learnt from Bungo District,Indonesia

Indonesia has been the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil since 2008. This paper discussed the livelihood impacts of oil palm development in Indonesia, based on lessons learnt from Bungo district, in the province of Jambi. The various community-company partnerships that structure the sector are reviewed and the difficulties raised by the joint ventures schemes are discussed. The merits and drawbacks of oil palm as a smallholder crop are then analysed, based on household socio-economic surveys conducted in 2007–2010. The main causes of conflicts between oil palm companies and communities are unclear land tenure, and a recurrent lack of leadership in smallholders’ cooperatives. Under fair partnerships between smallholders and companies, oil palm could become a smallholder friendly crop. The land-use profitability analysis demonstrates the high returns that can be generated by oil palm independent smallholdings, making it highly competitive with rubber, and much more profitable than rice production.     

中国胶合板出口美国遭遇的非关税贸易壁垒及其影响分析

随着林产品生产规模的扩大和出口份额的提高, 中国林业企业遭遇越来越多的出口贸易壁垒, 尤其是在作为我国胶合板出口第1大市场的美国。这不仅阻碍了我国林业产业的发展, 甚至严重威胁一部分企业的生存。文中利用量化分析工具测算出, 在美国消费者偏好中国胶合板产品的情况下, 中国胶合板面临的非关税贸易壁垒相当于150%到580%的从价关税税率。面对严峻的形势, 我国企业应在提高自身国际竞争能力的同时, 积极应对贸易摩擦, 并着力开拓新市场。     

2011年度中国家具行业的发展

以大量详实数据,总结并分析2011年度我国家具行业的产销情况、行业效益和贸易特征,指出:我国家具行业工业总产值、累计利润保持增长,且以木质家具制造业发展势头较好,内资企业的主导地位不断加强,中西部销售增速明显快于东部,产销率继续维持高位运行态势;行业对外贸易仍旧保持较大顺差,但在国家扩大进口政策及国际市场需求萎缩等因素共同作用下,家具的进口增速快于出口增速.     

中国原木进口与木质林产品出口的动态分析

1992-2014年中国木质林产品出口总值增长37.7倍,年均增长率达到17.94%;而原木进口总值增长25.6倍,年均增长率为15.89%。原木进口与木质林产品出口存在相同的增长趋势。文中以原木进口总值和木质林产品出口总值数据为基础建立VECM模型,并通过正交化脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析证明,中国原木进口与林产品出口之间存在正相关关系,原木进口显著推动了中国木质林产品的出口,但原木的供应不足也将制约林产品出口规模的进一步扩大。因此,缓解原木供求矛盾和优化林产品出口结构成为推动林产品贸易健康发展亟待解决的问题。     

Attitudes of small-scale forest owners to their properties in an ageing society: Findings of survey in Yamaguchi prefecture, Japan

Populations of most developed countries have been ageing, and the populations of Japanese mountain villages are estimated to have reached into a super-ageing society. In particular, because forestry is unprofitable and due to the economic recession in Japan, many small-scale forest owners face the problems of ageing. For policy-makers, it is important to assess the socioeconomic impacts of forest owners’ ageing in order to ensure the sustainable management of forests. A survey was conducted of forest owners in Yamaguchi Prefecture, which is famous for overall depopulation and ageing of the rural population. It was found that 83% of 687 plantation forest owners who responded in the survey were 60 years or older and 76% did not have forestry income over the past three years, but 81% had kept up ownership of their forest as the traditional family property. In terms of forest management intentions, the respondents were found to consist of four types, namely ‘family management’, ‘commissioned management’, ‘de-accession’ and ‘possession without proper management’. Differences in evaluations of hypothetical policies were found among the four types.     

江河滩地优质大径杨木培育关键技术研究

大径材的缺乏 ,已严重制约了我国胶合板等相关工业的持续发展 ,如何利用我国东南沿海丰富的江河滩地资源营建大面积杨树优质大径材基地 ?作者通过近 10a的研究 ,就充分利用江河荒滩等劣质土地培育优质大径杨木 ,在进行产业化培育过程中对新无性系引选、主要立地制约因子、密度与林分工艺成熟年限、边行“优势配置式”造林、复合轮伐期经营、节痕控制技术、合理轮伐期确定及配套优化栽培模式等技术关键进行研究总结 ,为大面积营造杨树优质大径材基地提供了科学依据