PHENIPS—A comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation

We developed the model PHENIPS for spatial and temporal simulation of the seasonal development of Ips typographus at the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria. The model is based on a digital elevation model used for interpolation of temperature and solar radiation to calculate the microclimatic conditions (bark temperature) for the beetles’ development. Additionally, the beetles’ phenology at Kalkalpen National Park was monitored along with air and bark temperature measurements. The onset of host tree infestation in spring was estimated using a lower threshold of 16.5 °C for flight activity and a mean thermal sum of 140 degree-days (dd) from beginning of April 1st onward. Rate of brood development was calculated from accumulated degree-days of hourly temperature data using upper and lower temperature thresholds of 38.9 and 8.3 °C, respectively, and a nonlinear function for calculating effective thermal sums. Re-emergence of parental beetles occurred at a time when 49.7% of the thermal sum for total development (557 dd) was reached. The model includes the discontinuance of the beetle's reproductive activity at a day length <14.5 h. The rate of successful hibernation of established broods is predicted by assessing the developmental stage of initiated generations at the beginning of the cold period. For validation we compared the timing of phenological events in the field with predicted events using both, hourly recorded data at trap trees in the terrain and generated daily topoclimatic data. Using topoclimatic data, the onset of infestation was predicted with a mean absolute error of 1.3 days. The observed onset of emergence of filial beetles in the field was estimated with a mean error of 39 dd. Our PHENIPS explicitly considers the strong effects of regional topography and stand conditions on local air and bark temperature and can be used for precise monitoring of the actual state of bark beetle development at the specific stand/tree level. Using topoclimatic data, PHENIPS simulates the maximum number of generations which is necessary to assess the potential impact of bark beetle outbreaks at regional scale. Further applications of PHENIPS for site-specific hazard rating of bark beetle infestation are discussed.     

Modelling the predisposition of Norway spruce to <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ips typographus</Emphasis> L. infestation by means of environmental factors in southern Finland

New measures for effective monitoring and controlling of bark beetle infestations are needed as a response to intensified outbreaks caused by the climate change. Various environmental factors affect tree health and susceptibility, as well as stand predisposition to bark beetles. European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. abundance and outbreak frequency in Finland has significantly increased during the last decade. The ability to identify sites under a high risk of infestation would facilitate adaptation to this new situation and help target limited forest health management resources. Accordingly, our goal was to investigate the importance of various stand, soil and topographic characteristics in the assessing predisposition of Norway spruce dominated urban forest in southern Finland to I. typographus infestations. Information on the environmental factors was assessed in the field in 2014 and derived from a digital elevation model. Ips typographus infestation intensity was classified into three infestation index classes based on tree-wise symptoms of resin flow, discoloration and defoliation. Cumulative logit link models were utilized for investigating stand-level infestation probability. The best explanatory factors were aspect, slope, site type and soil texture. Models with the highest cumulative probabilities for severe infestation were linked with eastern aspect, moderate steep slope and rich site type fertility (0.72) and eastern aspect, shallow soil and rich site type fertility (0.71). Higher soil C/N ratios with east aspect and rich site type fertility was associated with an increased risk of severe infestation in a third model. The lowest risk was associated with southern and southwestern aspects, fine soil texture, moderate site fertility and gentle slopes.     

Bark beetle (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) outbreak and system of IPM measures in an area affected by intensive forest decline connected with honey fungus (Armillaria sp.)

The character of a bark beetle outbreak, planning system, and implementation of IPM measures in a forest affected by intensive decline connected with honey fungus (Armillaria sp.) is described. It is possible to distinguish two levels of outbreak in the study area. The first level is characterized by spruce mortality connected with yellowing of spruce and presence of plant pathogens, mostly Armillaria sp. Forest stands have disperse infestations of bark beetles. Identification of infested trees and salvage cutting in time are problematic. In case of late processing of infested trees, the second level of outbreak could become manifest. The populations of bark beetle increase. Beetles could attack relatively healthy trees. The classical outbreak with forest edges and spot infestations starts. The identification of infested trees is easier. The application of pheromone trap barriers is effective. Thus, the second level of outbreak could be easily managed. The planning of IPM measures is concerned with localization of various pheromone trap systems in particular forest stands. It is based on field survey, data acquisition, estimation of swarming bark beetle population, and information of pheromone system effectiveness.     

Factors affecting the spatio-temporal dispersion of Ips typographus (L.) in Bavarian Forest National Park: A long-term quantitative landscape-level analysis

The relationship between abiotic and biotic factors and the spread of the European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (L.), was investigated at a landscape level over a model period of 18 years in the Bavarian Forest National Park in Germany. Deadwood areas - where I. typographus - caused tree mortality of 100% - were photographed annually using Color-infrared aerial photography and digitally recorded in vector form. Thirty-two static and dynamic habitat variables were quantitatively determined using spatial pattern analysis and geostatistics from 1990 to 2007 at the landscape scale. The importance of the presence of deadwood areas for thirty-two habitat variables for the occurrence of the bark beetle was quantitatively recorded using an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA).It was shown over a long model period that the intensity of the bark beetle infestation went through different phases over the 18-year study period. No mono-causal correlations could be found between individual habitat factors and the spread of the bark beetle over the entire model period. On the one hand, these findings underline the complexity of the system, on the other hand, this could be interpreted as a possible explanation for conclusions drawn by previous studies that differ from each other.The importance of individual habitat variables and the combinations of variables varied to different extents within these phases. An examination of the cumulative importance of the habitat demonstrated that the biological structural variables such as the distance from the site of the previous year's infestation, the area and the perimeter of the infested areas from the previous year are of great importance for the incidence of the bark beetle, but not across all years. Of equal significance for assessing the size of the area and the distance of the deadwood areas from the sites of the previous year's infestation are the size of the areas, the perimeter of the deadwood areas and the proximity index. An evaluation of the stages of forest succession showed that cumulatively, a short distance between the infested areas and the forest areas with conifers in the early stages of growth was an equally important habitat factor from 1990 to 2007. By quantitatively recording habitat factors that are significant for the spread of the bark beetle it may help predict areas that are at risk and thus to develop suitable management strategies to minimise or stop the spread and the effect of the bark beetle.     

Carbon and nitrogen cycling immediately following bark beetle outbreaks in southwestern ponderosa pine forests

Bark beetle infestation is a well-known cause of historical low-level disturbance in southwestern ponderosa pine forests, but recent fire exclusion and increased tree densities have enabled large-scale bark beetle outbreaks with unknown consequences for ecosystem function. Uninfested and beetle-infested plots (n = 10 pairs of plots on two aspects) of ponderosa pine were compared over one growing season in the Sierra Ancha Experimental Forest, AZ to determine whether infestation was correlated with differences in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools and fluxes in aboveground biomass and soils. Infested plots had at least 80% of the overstory ponderosa pine trees attacked by bark beetles within 2 years of our measurements. Both uninfested and infested plots stored ∼9 kg C m⁻² in aboveground tree biomass, but infested plots held 60% of this aboveground tree biomass in dead trees, compared to 5% in uninfested plots. We hypothesized that decreased belowground C allocation following beetle-induced tree mortality would alter soil respiration rates, but this hypothesis was not supported; throughout the growing season, soil respiration in infested plots was similar to uninfested plots. In contrast, several results supported the hypothesis that premature needlefall from infested trees provided a pulse of low C:N needlefall that altered soil N cycling. The C:N mass ratio of pine needlefall in infested plots (∼45) was lower than uninfested plots (∼95) throughout the growing season. Mineral soils from infested plots had greater laboratory net nitrification rates and field resin bag ammonium accumulation than uninfested plots. As bark beetle outbreaks become increasingly prevalent in western landscapes, longer-term biogeochemical studies on interactions with other disturbances (e.g. fire, harvesting, etc.) will be required to predict changes in ecosystem structure and function.     

Pronounced fluctuations of spruce bark beetle (Scolytinae: Ips typographus) populations do not invoke genetic differentiation

The dynamics of a recent outbreak of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) in Switzerland was ruled by a devastating winter storm in 1999 and the drought and heat of the summer 2003. Starting from a similar level of population sizes, estimated as the rate of infested growing stock, beetle populations increased differently in magnitude and time among different regions in Switzerland. Accordingly, we expected local or regional genetic differentiation as a result of such repeated population expansion/breakdown dynamics. We analyzed 5 nuclear microsatellites of spruce bark beetles sampled from pheromone traps at 30 locations distributed over Switzerland. Our genetic results did not indicate any sign of population differentiation, structure, isolation by distance, or recent bottlenecks. This complete lack of genetic structure suggests that spruce bark beetles are highly mobile, precluding the formation of a spatial structure at neutral molecular markers. Thus, this molecular–genetic approach does not allow us to discriminate among regional gene pools and to identify the origin of expanding beetle populations.     

Effects of forest restoration treatments on the abundance of bark beetles in Norway spruce forests of southern Finland

Restoration of protected areas in boreal forests frequently includes creating substantial volumes of dead wood. While this benefits a wide range of dead wood dependent invertebrate species, some of these are regarded as forest pests. Therefore, the risk of elevated levels of tree mortality in surrounding commercial forests must be considered. In a large-scale field experiment in southern Finland, we studied the effects of restoration treatments on the abundance of bark beetles within and in the vicinity of restored areas, in particular focusing on Ips typographus and Pityogenes chalcographus. The treatments applied to managed Norway spruce forests were controlled burning and partial harvesting combined with retaining 5, 30 or 60 m³/ha of cut down wood. We found that the abundance of bark beetles increased by both burning and harvesting with down wood retention, being highest where burning and harvesting had been combined. The actual volume of down wood retention had no significant effect. The effect of burning on the number of bark beetles along host tree boles was negative which suggests that burnt spruces provided a less suitable resource for bark beetles than unburnt dead spruces. The abundance of bark beetles along host trees also decreased with increasing volume of down wood retention. The abundance of P. chalographus was slightly elevated up to 50 m outside restored areas but the abundance was very low compared to that within the areas. The abundance of I. typographus was extremely low outside restored areas. We conclude that restoration treatments increase the abundance of bark beetles via increased availability of resources, but that the effect of burning is likely to be counteracted by decreased resource quality. Thus, burning might be the “safest” way to produce large quantities of dead wood. Furthermore, the fact that only few beetles were collected in adjacent areas suggests that restored areas pose little threat of serving as refugia in which bark beetle populations increase in sufficient numbers to attack live trees in adjacent forests. However, restoration actions repeated at consecutive years within a small area might enable the populations to grow to outbreak levels.     

Stand characteristics and downed woody debris accumulations associated with a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreak in Colorado

Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.)-dominated ecosystems in north-central Colorado are undergoing rapid and drastic changes associated with overstory tree mortality from a current mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreak. To characterize stand characteristics and downed woody debris loads during the first 7 years of the outbreak, 221 plots (0.02 ha) were randomly established in infested and uninfested stands distributed across the Arapaho National Forest, Colorado. Mountain pine beetle initially attacked stands with higher lodgepole pine basal area, and lower density and basal area of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii [Parry]), and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt. var. lasiocarpa) compared to uninfested plots. Mountain pine beetle-affected stands had reduced total and lodgepole pine stocking and quadratic mean diameter. The density and basal area of live overstory lodgepole declined by 62% and 71% in infested plots, respectively. The mean diameter of live lodgepole pine was 53% lower than pre-outbreak in infested plots. Downed woody debris loads did not differ between uninfested plots and plots currently infested at the time of sampling to 3 or 4–7 years after initial infestation, but the projected downed coarse wood accumulations when 80% of the mountain pine beetle-killed trees fall indicated a fourfold increase. Depth of the litter layer and maximum height of grass and herbaceous vegetation were greater 4–7 years after initial infestation compared to uninfested plots, though understory plant percent cover was not different. Seedling and sapling density of all species combined was higher in uninfested plots but there was no difference between infested and uninfested plots for lodgepole pine alone. For trees ≥2.5 cm in diameter at breast height, the density of live lodgepole pine trees in mountain pine beetle-affected stands was higher than Engelmann spruce, subalpine fir, and aspen, (Populus tremuloides Michx.), in diameter classes comprised of trees from 2.5 cm to 30 cm in diameter, suggesting that lodgepole pine will remain as a dominant overstory tree after the bark beetle outbreak.     

Multiscale spatial variation of the bark beetle Ips sexdentatus damage in a pine plantation forest (Landes de Gascogne,Southwestern France)

Bark beetles are notorious pests of natural and planted forests causing extensive damage. These insects depend on dead or weakened trees but can switch to healthy trees during an outbreak as mass-attacks allow the beetle to overwhelm tree defences. Climatic events like windstorms are known to favour bark beetle outbreaks because they create a large number of breeding sites, i.e., weakened trees and for this reason, windthrown timber is generally preventively harvested and removed. In December 1999, the southwest of France was struck by a devastating windstorm that felled more that 27 million m³of timber. This event offered the opportunity to study large-scale spatial pattern of trees attacked by the bark beetle Ips sexdentatus and its relationship with the spatial location of pine logs that were temporally stored in piles along stand edges during the post-storm process of fallen tree removal. The study was undertaken in a pure maritime pine forest of 1300 ha in 2001 and 2002. We developed a landscape approach based on a GIS and a complete inventory of attacked trees. During this study more than 70% of the investigated stands had at least one tree attacked by I. sexdentatus  . Spatial aggregation prevailed in stands with n≥15$n\ge 15$ attacked trees. Patches of attacked trees were identified using a kernel estimation procedure coupled with randomization tests. Attacked trees formed patches of 500–700 m² on average which displayed a clumped spatial distribution. Log piles stemming from the sanitation removals were mainly distributed along the large access roads and showed an aggregated spatial pattern as well. The spatial relationship between patches of attacked trees and log pile storage areas was analyzed by means of the Ripley’s statistic that revealed a strong association at the scale of the studied forest. Our results indicated that bark beetle attacks were facilitated in the vicinity of areas where pine logs were stored. The spatial extent of this relationship was >1000 m. Similar results were obtained in 2001 and 2002 despite differences in the number and spatial distribution of attacked trees. The presence of a strong “facilitation effect” suggests that log piles should be removed quickly in order to prevent outbreaks of bark beetles.     

Persisting bark beetle outbreak indicates the unsustainability of secondary Norway spruce forests: case study from Central Europe

? Context

Secondary Norway spruce forests in the Western Beskids are among the most damaged forests in Europe. Although spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) has been recently causing large-scale damage to these forests, our understanding of I. typographus dynamics in this environment is inadequate for evaluating forest sustainability.

? Aim

This study aims to evaluate the patterns of damage caused by I. typographus to spruce forests with compromised ecological stability.

? Methods

Forest infestation by I. typographus was inferred from sanitary felling data collected from 1998 to 2004. Stand and site data were obtained from forest management plans. Spatial-dependence analysis, ordinary kriging and neural network-based regression modelling were used to investigate the patterns of infestation and the casual relationships in the studied ecosystem.

? Results

I. typographus long-distance dispersal substantially decreased with outbreak culmination. The spread of infestation was only weakly related to stand and site parameters. Infestations spread isotropically at the stand and patch level but directionally at the regional scale.

? Conclusions

The large-scale spread of infestation can be explained by the uniform age and species composition of the investigated forests and by the ability of populations to overwhelm suboptimal trees. The observations presented here suggest that secondary spruce forests in Europe may be unsustainable due to unprecedented bark beetle outbreaks, which can be further amplified by changing climate.     

The “sun-effect”: microclimatic alterations predispose forest edges to bark beetle infestations

Bark beetle dispersal and host selection behaviour are a complex and poorly understood process, resulting in specific spatio-temporal infestation patterns in forests. Aerial images from the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) provide a high-resolution, that is, tree-scale data set for the period 2001–2010, including information about Ips typographus (Col., Curculio., Scolytinae) infestation, the application of sanitary logging, natural forest edges and the area of living spruce susceptible to bark beetle infestation. We combined methods of GIS and image analysis to investigate the infestation probabilities at three types of forest edges under spatial and temporal aspects and compared them to the corresponding probabilities at the stand interior. Our results showed a pronounced infestation predisposition of such edge trees delimiting infestation patches cleared by sanitary logging measures, in particular at the south-facing edge sector. In contrast, edges adjacent to non-cleared infestation were revealed as less attractive for subsequent infestations, but nonetheless more attractive than permanent forest edges or the stand interior. Additionally, we measured near-bark surface air temperature to determine microclimatic differences at those edge- or non-edge sites and related them to predisposition results. Finally, our study emphasized favourable microclimatic conditions—summarized as the “sun-effect”—as a decisive factor enhancing the local infestation probability at recent forest edges in multiple ways. Both insect- and host tree-related reactions to suddenly altered microclimate are supposed to bias arbitrary colonization behaviour at patch and tree level, thereby mainly explaining observed infestation patterns. From the forester’s point of view, our results may contribute to precise bark beetle risk assessment and thus facilitate decision making in forest management.     

Multi-scale nest-site selection by black-backed woodpeckers in outbreaks of mountain pine beetles

Areas of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreaks in the Black Hills can provide habitat for black-backed woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus), a U.S. Forest Service, Region 2 Sensitive Species. These outbreaks are managed through removal of trees infested with mountain pine beetles to control mountain pine beetle populations and salvage timber resources. To minimize impacts to black-backed woodpeckers while meeting management objectives, there is a need to identify characteristics of these areas that support black-backed woodpeckers. We examined the habitat associations of this species nesting in areas of beetle outbreaks in the Black Hills, South Dakota in 2004 and 2005. We used an information theoretic approach and discrete choice models to evaluate nest-site selection of 42 woodpecker nests at 3 spatial scales—territory, nest area, and nest tree. At the territory scale (250 m around nest), availability and distribution of food best explained black-backed woodpecker selection of beetle outbreaks versus the surrounding forest. Selection at the territory scale was positively associated with densities of trees currently infested by mountain pine beetles and indices of wood borer (Cerambycidae and Buprestidae) abundance, and was greatest at distances of 50–100 m from the nearest patch of infestation. At the nest-area scale (12.5 m radius around the nest), densities of snags positively influenced nest-area selection. Finally, at the nest-tree scale, aspen (Populus tremuloides) and 3–5-year-old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) snags were important resources. The association between abundant wood-boring insects and black-backed woodpeckers creates a difficult challenge for forest managers. In the absence of fire, areas of beetle outbreak might serve as the only substantial source of habitat in the Black Hills. Regulating insect populations via salvage logging will reduce key food resources to black-backed woodpeckers during nesting. Therefore, given the relatively infrequent occurrence of large-scale fire in the Black Hills, management should recognize the importance of beetle-killed forests to the long-term viability of the black-backed woodpecker population in the Black Hills.     

Types of bark beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) infestation in spruce forest stands affected by air pollution, bark beetle outbreak and honey fungus (Armillaria mellea)

583 spruce stands in an area affected by air pollution and bark beetle outbreak in Eastern Slovakia were studied in 1996. According to bark beetle infestation of dominant and codominant trees, stands were classified into following types of spruce stand decline:Ips typographus-A,Ips typographus-B,Polygraphus poligraphus, I. typographus/P. poligraphus—A,I. typographus/P. poligraphus—B. The presence of attacked trees in forest edges, bark beetle spots and forest interior was the key important factor for the classification. Data from forest inventory and forest management evidence together with data on types of spruce stands decline were used in further analyses. Results shows that the distribution of forest stands classified into different types or uninfested stands is related mainly to host size and site quality. The percentage of spruce, exposition of stands and stand density showed significant effects. The mechanisms of spreading of studied bark beetle outbreak could be explained by direct effects of stress of trees caused by an abrupt increase of level of solar irradiation and by weakening of trees by the honey fungus.     

Susceptibility of ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa (Dougl. ex Laws.), to mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins,attack in uneven-aged stands in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming USA

Mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins can cause extensive tree mortality in ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws., forests in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming. Most studies that have examined stand susceptibility to mountain pine beetle have been conducted in even-aged stands. Land managers increasingly practice uneven-aged management. We established 84 clusters of four plots, one where bark beetle-caused mortality was present and three uninfested plots. For all plot trees we recorded species, tree diameter, and crown position and for ponderosa pine whether they were killed or infested by mountain pine beetle. Elevation, slope, and aspect were also recorded. We used classification trees to model the likelihood of bark beetle attack based on plot and site variables. The probability of individual tree attack within the infested plots was estimated using logistic regression. Basal area of ponderosa pine in trees ≥25.4 cm in diameter at breast height (dbh) and ponderosa pine stand density index were correlated with mountain pine beetle attack. Regression trees and linear regression indicated that the amount of observed tree mortality was associated with initial ponderosa pine basal area and ponderosa pine stand density index. Infested stands had higher total and ponderosa pine basal area, total and ponderosa pine stand density index, and ponderosa pine basal area in trees ≥25.4 cm dbh. The probability of individual tree attack within infested plots was positively correlated with tree diameter with ponderosa pine stand density index modifying the relationship. A tree of a given size was more likely to be attacked in a denser stand. We conclude that stands with higher ponderosa pine basal area in trees >25.4 cm and ponderosa pine stand density index are correlated with an increased likelihood of mountain pine beetle bark beetle attack. Information form this study will help forest managers in the identification of uneven-aged stands with a higher likelihood of bark beetle attack and expected levels of tree mortality.     

Bark beetle-caused mortality in a drought-affected ponderosa pine landscape in Arizona,USA

Extensive ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) mortality associated with a widespread severe drought and increased bark beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) populations occurred in Arizona from 2001 to 2004. A complex of Ips beetles including: the Arizona fivespined ips, Ips lecontei Swaine, the pine engraver beetle, Ips pini (Say), Ips calligraphus (Germar), Ips latidens (LeConte), Ips knausi Swaine and Ips integer (Eichhoff) were the primary bark beetle species associated with ponderosa pine mortality. In this study we examine stand conditions and physiographic factors associated with bark beetle-caused tree mortality in ponderosa pine forests across five National Forests in Arizona. A total of 633 fixed-radius plots were established across five National Forests in Arizona: Apache-Sitgreaves, Coconino, Kaibab, Prescott, and Tonto. Prior to the bark beetle outbreak, plots with mortality had higher tree and stocking compared with plots without pine mortality. Logistic regression modeling found that probability of ponderosa pine mortality caused by bark beetles was positively correlated with tree density and inversely related with elevation and tree diameter. Given the large geographical extent of this study resulting logistic models to estimate the likelihood of bark beetle attack should have wide applicability across similar ponderosa pine forests across the Southwest. This is particularly true of a model driven by tree density and elevation constructed by combining all forests. Tree mortality resulted in significant reductions in basal area, tree density, stand density index, and mean tree diameter for ponderosa pine and for all species combined in these forests. Most of the observed pine mortality was in the 10–35 cm diameter class, which comprise much of the increase in tree density over the past century as a result of fire suppression and grazing practices. Ecological implications of tree mortality are discussed.     

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ipspini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km² and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species’ ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time.     

Ophiostomatoid fungi associated with bark beetles onAbies veitchii in wave-regenerated forests

Relationships between tree mortality and bark beetle infestation onAbies veitchii at the wave-regenerated forest in Mt. Asahi, Okuchichibu area were investigated. Most of the firs with green needles and newly developed current year’s shoots in the dieback zone were heavily infested by bark beetles before the death of the trees. After heavy infestation of beetles, about half of the infested firs died within the year, and the other half died in the next year. When the species composition of bark beetles and associated ophiostomatoid fungi were investigated in Mt. Asahi and also at a typical wave-regenerated forest in Mt. Shimagare, Yatsugatake area,Cryphalus montanus andC. piceae were dominant beetle species for Mt. Asahi and Mt. Shimagare, respectively.Ophiostoma subalpinum andO. europhioides were dominant fungal species at both wave-generated forests. BecauseO. subalpinum was detected more frequently from deeper areas of sapwood thanO. europhioides, it was suggested that the fungal species may accelerate the death of stressed firs in wave-regenerated forests. Contribution No. 169, Laboratory of Plant Parasitic Mycology, Institute of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Tsukuba.     

Stand and landscape level effects of a major outbreak of spruce beetles on forest vegetation in the Copper River Basin,Alaska

From 1989 to 2003, a widespread outbreak of spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) in the Copper River Basin, Alaska, infested over 275,000 ha of forests in the region. During 1997 and 1998, we measured forest vegetation structure and composition on one hundred and thirty-six 20-m × 20-m plots to assess both the immediate stand and landscape level effects of the spruce beetle infestation. A photo-interpreted vegetation and infestation map was produced using color-infrared aerial photography at a scale of 1:40,000. We used linear regression to quantify the effects of the outbreak on forest structure and composition. White spruce (Picea glauca) canopy cover and basal area of medium-to-large trees [≥15 cm diameter-at-breast height (1.3 m, dbh)] were reduced linearly as the number of trees attacked by spruce beetles increased. Black spruce (Picea mariana) and small diameter white spruce (<15 cm dbh) were infrequently attacked and killed by spruce beetles. This selective attack of mature white spruce reduced structural complexity of stands to earlier stages of succession and caused mixed tree species stands to lose their white spruce and become more homogeneous in overstory composition. Using the resulting regressions, we developed a transition matrix to describe changes in vegetation types under varying levels of spruce beetle infestations, and applied the model to the vegetation map. Prior to the outbreak, our study area was composed primarily of stands of mixed white and black spruce (29% of area) and pure white spruce (25%). However, the selective attack on white spruce caused many of these stands to transition to black spruce dominated stands (73% increase in area) or shrublands (26% increase in area). The post-infestation landscape was thereby composed of more even distributions of shrubland and white, black, and mixed spruce communities (17–22% of study area). Changes in the cover and composition of understory vegetation were less evident in this study. However, stands with the highest mortality due to spruce beetles had the lowest densities of white spruce seedlings suggesting a longer forest regeneration time without an increase in seedling germination, growth, or survival.     

Occurrence of pathogens in associated living bark beetles (Col., Scolytidae) from different spruce stands in Austria

Pathogen occurrence was studied in 16?099 adult specimens of 10 different bark beetle species, which live associated on Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Beetles (mainly Ips typographus L. and Pityogenes chalcographus L.) were collected from 6 different localities in Austria (4 secondary spruce stands and 2 natural forest type stands, 9 sampling plots in total) in elevations between 400?m and 1600?m. Various viral, protozoan, and fungal pathogens could be diagnosed with a light microscope in the examined beetles. Numerous pathogen species were known from former studies, some pathogens were totally new or could be found in a new host species beside their type host. The most dominant pathogen species were Protozoa, Gregarina cf. typographi, Malamoeba cf. scolyti, and Chytridiopsis cf. typographi. Over the whole investigation period, the highest pathogen diversity with eight pathogen species was found in I. typographus. Differences were observed in the pathogen complex of each beetle species from the different collection sites and in different years of investigation. Several species showed an overlapping in their host range and infected various bark beetle species. Furthermore, pathogen occurrence and prevalence differed in bark beetles from 4 different sampling plots in an area (one locality) within a distance of a few kilometres.     

Prescribed fire effects on bark beetle activity and tree mortality in southwestern ponderosa pine forests

Prescribed fire is an important tool in the management of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) forests, yet effects on bark beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) activity and tree mortality are poorly understood in the southwestern U.S. We compared bark beetle attacks and tree mortality between paired prescribed-burned and unburned stands at each of four sites in Arizona and New Mexico for three growing seasons after burning (2004–2006). Prescribed burns increased bark beetle attacks on ponderosa pine over the first three post-fire years from 1.5 to 13% of all trees, increased successful, lethal attacks on ponderosa pine from 0.4 to 7.6%, increased mortality of ponderosa pine from all causes from 0.6 to 8.4%, and increased mortality of all tree species with diameter at breast height >13 cm from 0.6 to 9.6%. On a per year basis, prescribed burns increased ponderosa pine mortality from 0.2% per year in unburned stands to 2.8% per year in burned stands. Mortality of ponderosa pine 3 years after burning was best described by a logistic regression model with total crown damage (crown scorch + crown consumption) and bark beetle attack rating (no, partial, or mass attack by bark beetles) as independent variables. Attacks by Dendroctonus spp. did not differ significantly over bole heights, whereas attacks by Ips spp. were greater on the upper bole compared with the lower bole. Three previously published logistic regression models of tree mortality, developed from fires in 1995–1996 in northern Arizona, were moderately successful in predicting broad patterns of tree mortality in our data. The influence of bark beetle attack rating on tree mortality was stronger for our data than for data from the 1995–1996 fires. Our results highlight canopy damage from fire as a strong and consistent predictor of post-fire mortality of ponderosa pine, and bark beetle attacks and bole char rating as less consistent predictors because of temporal variability in their relationship to mortality. The small increase in tree mortality and bark beetle attacks caused by prescribed burning should be acceptable to many forest managers and the public given the resulting reduction in surface fuel and risk of severe wildfire.