Factors affecting the spatio-temporal dispersion of Ips typographus (L.) in Bavarian Forest National Park: A long-term quantitative landscape-level analysis

The relationship between abiotic and biotic factors and the spread of the European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus (L.), was investigated at a landscape level over a model period of 18 years in the Bavarian Forest National Park in Germany. Deadwood areas - where I. typographus - caused tree mortality of 100% - were photographed annually using Color-infrared aerial photography and digitally recorded in vector form. Thirty-two static and dynamic habitat variables were quantitatively determined using spatial pattern analysis and geostatistics from 1990 to 2007 at the landscape scale. The importance of the presence of deadwood areas for thirty-two habitat variables for the occurrence of the bark beetle was quantitatively recorded using an Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA).It was shown over a long model period that the intensity of the bark beetle infestation went through different phases over the 18-year study period. No mono-causal correlations could be found between individual habitat factors and the spread of the bark beetle over the entire model period. On the one hand, these findings underline the complexity of the system, on the other hand, this could be interpreted as a possible explanation for conclusions drawn by previous studies that differ from each other.The importance of individual habitat variables and the combinations of variables varied to different extents within these phases. An examination of the cumulative importance of the habitat demonstrated that the biological structural variables such as the distance from the site of the previous year's infestation, the area and the perimeter of the infested areas from the previous year are of great importance for the incidence of the bark beetle, but not across all years. Of equal significance for assessing the size of the area and the distance of the deadwood areas from the sites of the previous year's infestation are the size of the areas, the perimeter of the deadwood areas and the proximity index. An evaluation of the stages of forest succession showed that cumulatively, a short distance between the infested areas and the forest areas with conifers in the early stages of growth was an equally important habitat factor from 1990 to 2007. By quantitatively recording habitat factors that are significant for the spread of the bark beetle it may help predict areas that are at risk and thus to develop suitable management strategies to minimise or stop the spread and the effect of the bark beetle.